So it’s finally done.

After months of attempting to give away Richard Jefferson, the Bucks have succeeded in doing just that by swapping him for Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas.  Or as I call them, the release/buyout special.

I noted this on my twitter post before, but if there is one thing that is clear to me with news of this Richard Jefferson it’s that John Hammond is more interested in fielding a successful basketball team than being a popular man in short term Milwaukee.  And I think that this move definitely puts him on a path towards doing just that.  Let’s break this thing down.

Why did we just trade last season’s best player for three aging role players?
Financially this is a no-brainer.  A Richard Jefferson-Michael Redd led Bucks team was not going to do any better than a first round playoff birth next season.  Sure, that might sell a few more tickets, but ultimately accomplishes nothing.  Jefferson would then be on the hook for an additional season at $15 million.  According to Chad Ford, the Bucks will save $6.35 million next year and then the entire $15 million in 2010-11.  For a team hurting as bad financially as the Bucks, $21 million is a lot of money.  It could be even more if they buy out Kurt Thomas before season’s end.  Thomas has been a solid post defender forever and teams like veteran know-how when the playoffs get near.  Don’t be surprised to see him go before next season’s end.

So what happens to that available money now?
That becomes the most important question for the Bucks.  If they resign Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva they’ll likely move back over the luxury tax line.  The trade leaves them about $10 million under the tax that Herb Kohl can’t be too enthusiastic about paying.  If another team makes a solid offer to Villanueva the Bucks might have to let him go to avoid creating another miserable cap situation for themselves.  Sessions should be a little easier to resign because of the Gilbert Arenas Rule, which is very well explained right here.  Essentially, Sessions won’t be getting more than a mid-level exception offer from another team.

So Sessions is coming back and the Bucks are taking Jordan Hill or DeJuan Blair?
I’m not John Hammond, so I don’t know how things will play out.  But if I were a betting man, I’d bet Ramon Sessions is wearing green and red next year.  On top of that, I don’t think this impacts the Bucks draft that much.  This trade shouts out “WE’RE IN REBUILDING MODE.”  Which is fine, because Larry Harris used to shout out “I KNOW WE’RE NOT VERY GOOD BUT I’M GOING TO TELL YOU WE ARE AND KEEP WASTING MONEY.”  Now we know where things stand.  When teams are in rebuilding mode they need to acquire assets before needs.  If the best player available is a point guard, then the Bucks should take the point guard.  They could play him and Sessions together or work out another deal where they give up whoever this draft pick is to a team willing to take on Michael Redd’s contract.  Cleveland?  Portland?  I don’t know.

To the average fan this deal looks awful.  But John Hammond pulled off a move today his predecessor never would have. . .so I think we’re in good hands.

Nothing is ever as clear as it seems.

When people heard some college kid was floating the sacred $100 million figure out there for his first NBA contract, people took notice, especially business savvy NBA owners.  Sure, Glenn Robinson was a rare college player, averaging over 30 points per game at Purdue, but holding out for $100 million?  As a rookie?

In Black Planet, David Shields book about the 1994-95 Seattle Sonics, there is a quote from Bucks owner Herb Kohl on the Glenn Robinson contract matter, “I was thinking of telling Mr. Robinson, ‘I’ll tell you what: I’ll take your contract and you can have my franchise.’”

People saw the big figure in front of the word million and emotions poured out.  Some laughed at the thought that an athlete could be so ignorant as to expect a contract that big.  Others were outraged that contracts had spiraled so out of control.  Eventually the call came for a cap on rookie salaries.  Too much too soon would surely ruin the NBA.

After Robinson’s alleged outrageous demands the rookie scale was instituted in 1995.  The way the system is currently set up teams sign two year contracts with their first round picks and hold team options for the third and fourth years.  After he is chosen with the first pick this year, Blake Griffin will receive in the ballpark of $4,152,900 million.  His actual figure can be 80 percent of that or 120 percent of that, with it usually falling on the high end of the scale.  So basically, Griffin will be playing for what amounts to a mid-level exception for his first four years in the league.

Well, that sounds terrific.  He has to prove himself to get his money.  And on top of that, if rookies aren’t coming in at these horrific prices then more money will be available for veteran players.  So the rookies are getting the shaft in the deal and owners and veterans clean up.

Not exactly.

If the idea was to actually cut down on player salary, then it was a failure.  With Robinson’s proposed $100 million contract over 13 years he would have stood at (roughly) $76,923,076 ten years into his deal.  As a comparison, after six years in the league LeBron James has made(roughly) $46,241,001.  Even estimating a very low $15 million a year in LeBron’s next four years puts him more than $30 million past Robinson at the ten-year point in their respective careers.  I know revenues have gone up and inflation has impacted numbers too, but basically the NBA owners gave up steady payments that sounded like big numbers for nice sounding payments that end up costing them far more.

For the trouble of giving up more money in the long term owners did get rewarded with less control of their players though.  So that’s a plus.

Suddenly first round picks had a lot more freedom.  No longer were they locked into their team for 25 years like Magic Johnson.  If the going got tough, they could get going or use their power to make sure the team got tough.  When LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all declined to sign extensions for more than three years after their rookie deals expired they were letting their teams know they expected to see title contenders by that time.  There would be no wasting of any of their primes with losing teams.  And that is why Toronto find themselves in such a tough spot with Chris Bosh.  If Chris Bosh was drafted in 1993 instead of 2003, Toronto could have locked him up for 15 years assuming both parties kept their sanity (see Webber, Chris and Nelson, Don).  Superagent David Falk expressed his confusion with the NBA’s insistence on changing the structure in his book The Bald Truth.

“Prior to the rookie wage scale . . . Milwaukee locked up No. 1 pick, Glenn Robinson, for ten years with no out.  Why on earth would you ever want to change that system?
(Renegotiating the rookie wages) was a cosmetic victory and neither side understood the future result of their actions.”

If teams are feeling pressure that players are going to bolt then they have to react.  And once players know teams are going to react they use that against them.  That’s how we end up with situations like Vince Carter in Toronto or Baron Davis in New Orleans, all talented players that saw their team was going nowhere and decided they wanted out sooner rather than later.  They knew the teams would cave.

And if you’re a team like Milwaukee or Minnesota or Memphis anywhere else where the market is small and the weather isn’t great you can’t really recoup your losses in free agency.  The biggest splash any of those teams made on the free agent market was probably Milwaukee’s signing of Bobby Simmons.  An overpaid role player was the big signing!  Trading can be an affective way to restore your team’s talent, but usually it just ends up being crap for crap. So the draft becomes that much more important.  If you’re lucky, you end up like San Antonio.  They got a superstar that is committed to the coach and the team and did an admirable job of drafting around him.  His commitment made it much easier though.

Given the general ineptitude of most teams with regard to the draft, hope is a dicey proposition.

Usually teams like the Bucks know their time is running out the second their guy shakes David Stern’s hand.  They no longer have the luxury of building a group together, piece by piece.  And they can thank Glenn Robinson and some overreacting owners for that.

(NOTE: In my head the Bucks decision is between Flynn and Jennings assuming they are around.  I think Jordan Hill will be gone, but I realize he’s an okay pick if he is there.  Personally, I think point guards are a lot more important than power forwards.  If Hill, Flynn and Jennings are all somehow there when it’s the Bucks turn to draft, I’d still rather they drafted a point guard.  But I get it if they don’t.  I’m just not going to be thrilled initially if Jrue Holiday is the pick.  I’ll talk myself into it after a while, but I’d rather have either one of these two than Holiday.)

The allure of what could be is always greater than the allure of what is.  Its why men cheat on their wives.  Its why billions of dollars are lost gambling every year at casinos.  Its why the economy has gone into the tank.  And its part of the reason this year’s NBA draft is driving me (and I’m assuming NBA GM’s) crazy.

The other part?  Well, that’s all pride.  (And a little bit of Sebastian Telfair, but we’ll get to that much later.)  The recipe for draft failure is simple: lots of pride and lots of upside lust.  But let’s start with this upside lust and the damage it could do.

Upside lust manifests itself in the Brandon Jennings’ of the world.  Jennings is as much of an (American) enigma as we’ve seen since high school players were barred from the draft.  Jennings decision to move to Europe to play has made him incredibly difficult to judge.  His numbers were underwhelming.  But does he get a break for playing a style of basketball that he’d never seen before?  It has to be factored in that the European game is a ton more physical and a ton more team oriented.

If we’re discrediting him for his numbers, surely we can appreciate that he accepted a heavier focus on defense.  Does the maturity boost an experience like this provides count for much?  Or would it have been more helpful for him to dominate the college game and maintain a high level of confidence?  Most important, has Europe made him a better player?

Questions without answers, at least temporarily; in four or five years we’ll know how the Brandon Jennings Europe experiment worked out.  But he’ll likely already be on to his second or third NBA team at that point.  The team that drafted him with all of their hopes so high will watch him thrive with another team or be glad to have ended this crazy endeavor.  They will have drafted him purely for his upside.

Not many have the physical tools Jennings has.  He’s the attractive girl sitting at the other end of the bar.  She’s usually out of your league, but you’re getting your shot with her because she has some flaws.  She’s Britney Spears.  She’s still hot, but would she be able to get it together to make anything other than a fling worth it?  But imagine the upside there, I mean, that is a superstar.  A team like the Milwaukee Bucks doesn’t often dabble in superstars.

Who could have foreseen when Kareem decided Milwaukee was not big enough for a man like him that Milwaukee would spend the next 40 years searching for another superstar.  Sure, Ray Allen got to star in a movie with Denzel and had some incredible years.  And yes, Sidney Moncreif was terrific in the 80’s, but Milwaukee has yet to replace the big shoes Kareem left when he fled town.  And, coincidence or not, they’ve yet to win another title.

So do they go for the allure of upside lust?  Pride says yes.

Pride says he’ll be a superstar.  He’ll come into Milwaukee and turn the league on its head.  Milwaukee will once again matter in the NBA.  The team won’t have to move and revenue will stream in like sewage into Lake Michigan.  Pride makes front offices go for the guy with all the risks.  They all say, “Once we get him in our system, we’re going to bring out the best in him.  He’ll develop a jump shot, he’ll be a hard worker and he’ll commit on the defensive end.  We’ll show everyone how great we are.”  The GM will be praised as the guy outsmarting everyone else in the room.  At least that is what the hope for.

It’s really no different from when we fantasy league GM’s take the wrong guy in the early rounds and refuse to admit to our friends that we screwed up.  In the end usually said GM does not want to give up on “his guy” and tons of time and dollars are wasted on the Mohammad Sene’s of the world, the “his guy’s” still suck and GM’s lose their jobs.  Rarely does upside turn into anything but downside.  And that is how teams miss guys like Jonny Flynn.

If Brandon Jennings is Britney Spears sitting at the other end of the bar, then Flynn would have to be Mandy Moore sitting next to you wanting to chat.  Moore broke out as a teen star and now has developed into a sane star with a real life and career.  She may not have sold 85 million records, but she never married K-Fed either.  She’s more or less a regular person with an awesome life.  Flynn isn’t oozing superstar appeal and isn’t as fun to sell to the fans, but he’ll likely end up a much safer pick.

Flynn proved what he could do over the last two years in college.  College point guards that stay for two years have a much higher success rate than those who . . . travel to Europe for a year after high school.  I made that up.  But college point guards who did well have generally been doing well in the past few NBA drafts.  Mike Conley started to turn it around last year when he received consistent minutes, D.J. Augustin was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Westbrook, all of these guys showed signs in college that they could lead an NBA team.  So why ignore that when it comes down to Jonny Flynn?

Because of Sebastian Telfair.

Not because Telfair turned into a great NBA point guard.  Hell, he’s barely turned into a serviceable one.  But that is beside the point, because Sebastian Telfair has proven to be quite an asset.  Telfair’s name recognition and alleged potential have always kept him on the minds of scouts.  He’s supposedly had tools ever since arriving in the league that he just needs to figure out how to put to use.  So when his name is thrown out there in trade talks, it can tip the scales.

Collecting assets like Telfair is what made the Celtics who they are today.  Telfair, Al Jefferson and Gerald Green were all potential stars the second they declared for the NBA draft.  To be successful the Celtics never needed any of them to succeed.  They just needed to have a lot of those guys to trade for Kevin Garnett.

So what do I think the Bucks should do with the number ten pick?  I say play it safe.  Go with Jonny Flynn and continue to build slow and steady.  Home run hitters strike out a lot more than they hit home runs.  I don’t think John Hammond is a home run hitter.

(But I’ll still be a little excited if he tries for one on Thursday.)

Chad Ford leads his Sunday Draft Buzz column with a note on the Bucks.

I think Milwaukee’s board looks like this right now going into that workout:

1. Jordan Hill
2. Holiday
3. Flynn
4. Teague
5. Jennings
6. Lawson

Holiday won’t be in the workout, but maybe he doesn’t need to be at this point. The other four rankings could change based on what happens on Monday.

He also mentioned the point guard workout the Bucks are having Monday.  Overall, his take on things bums me out.  I don’t really get what the problem with Brandon Jennings is.  I’m thinking maybe he’ll move up once they work him out.  In my eyes the pick is between Hill, Flynn and Jennings.  But I’m not running an NBA team.  And if I were, I’d probably be doing a crappy job of it, so I’ll just assume John Hammond will make a better decision.

DeJuan Blair’s  weight is still an issue.  Poor guy.  The last time I heard someone’s weight discussed this much in basketball was when Barkley said he was coming back with Jordan.  And Barkley ended up being too fat.  Dave Babcock is not totally convinced, but he sounds hopeful.

“We experienced Robert Traylor,” he said. “He got in great shape and then after the first year, it was tough to keep weight off. (Blair’s) got the great work ethic and that leads you to believe that he’s serious about staying (in shape).”

According to Ford Blair is no longer in play anyway, but who knows what will happen on draft night.  There has been as much confusion this year as any after the first pick.

As I’ve said before, what’s great about the draft is that even casual fans can get into the NBA for a day.  That would explain why the good people of Baraboo have advice for John Hammond.  They caution him not to make the same mistake he made last year:

Whoever ends up going to Milwaukee in the draft, let’s hope Hammond does better than a year ago. The Bucks can’t afford to get almost nothing from it’s top pick two years in a row.

Poor Joe Alexander is still taking shots.  The Bucks aren’t going to win an NBA championship next year.  They can afford to wait a few years for players to develop.  Everyone has already written off a kid who was labeled a project coming out.  Give Joe time!

The Bucks brought in another group on Friday.  This time there was more of a big man feel.

Jordan Hill - I’m coming around on the big man.  There has to be a reason everyone is writing such nice things about him right now, right?  I’ll bite the bullet and move him up to the top three.

B.J. Mullens – I’ve been fairly vocal with my distaste for Mullens, but with him I think it’s all about perspective.  If a team drafts B.J. Mullens and expects him to be a very good player, then they have made a huge mistake.  If they are drafting him with the expectation to be a good backup and energy guy, then they’ll probably be happy.  The Bucks don’t really want that at number ten though.  I hope.

Levance Fields – Fields got the job done at Pittsburgh.  He had a scrappy style and took a lot of big shots.  He was a little overweight and a little overrated, but when it really counted in the NCAA Tournament he hit the big shots.  He has a commitment from Orlando apparently for a spot on their summer league team.  I’m okay with that.

Slava Kravtsov – On his DraftExpress.com profile there is a note that says on offense Kravtsov “…looks very limited, not always looking ready or interested in catching passes…”  That is something you don’t read everyday.  He’s not interested in offense.  Hm.  Nevertheless he’s seven feet tall and stands a chance to be one of the last selections in the second round.