Bucksketball Podcast

Game 12 Preview: Bucks at Spurs

| November 22, 2009

Category: Game Previews

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 8-3

(Likely) Inactives: Michael Redd, Joe Alexander and Andrew Bogut

at

San Antonio Spurs (Gregg Popovich) 5-6

(Likely) Inactives: Manu Ginobili

Game time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Tony Parker

Parker returned on Saturday after missing two games with a left ankle sprain.  Tony Parker on a sprained left ankle is more dangerous than most guards on two healthy ones, so it’s not like he’ll be an easy guard just because he’s had some injuries this year.  His numbers are down a little from a year ago when he had what was likely his best season ever.  The fact that the question can seriously be posed as to whether he’s taken the reins on this team from Tim Duncan says a lot about his talent.  Jennings has faced some talented point guards thus far, but hasn’t faced one with Parker’s scorer mentality.  He gets in the paint and scores more than most.  The back-and-forth battle between these two should be worth the price of admission, Jennings has been nearly unconscious all season long.  It’s very safe to say he’s outperformed Parker even.  In fact, this seems like the very type of game Jennings will bring just a little bit extra for.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Keith Bogans

Ahh, our old friend Keith Bogans.  Bogans is another guy brought on by the Spurs to shoot corner threes when Duncan gets doubled teamed down low.  The Bruce Bowen role if you will.  Bogans isn’t great in this role though.  He’s not as good a three point shooter as he’s often credited and is more of a guard than Bowen was.  He likes to try and do some dribbling, attempts at creation, usually without success.  Bogans is not a bad defender, but seems more wary of getting physical than Bowen did.  He’s also not dirty.  Anyway, Bogans is not the great role player Bowen once was, but is serviceable off the bench when the Spurs get healthy.  Actually, that’s a pretty good description of Charlie Bell too.

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Richard Jefferson

I do and I don’t get the Richard Jefferson thing.  On one hand, the Spurs got a guy who can give them 20 points a night, slash and hit threes.  Plus his deal expires in two years, giving them flexibility down the road and they gave up virtually nothing.  On the other, does he really fit in that well with this team?  Jefferson’s biggest strength is putting his head down and going to the hoop.  He doesn’t have Ginobili’s awareness and operates in the same general area (albeit in a different way) as Tim Duncan.  Is it that big of a surprise that he hasn’t played as well as usual so far?  If they tell RJ to hang out in the corner and hit open threes when Duncan’s in, doesn’t that belittle his value?  He can probably be more effective with Duncan out of the game.

Advantage: Spurs

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Tim Duncan

Happy as we’ve all been with Ilyasova’s rebounding, he still doesn’t measure up to Tim Duncan.  In an off year.  Ilyasova’s advantages over Duncan and the other Spurs he’ll be matched-up with are going to be his unresting hands in their faces and his three-point shooting.  Much like Jennings, Ersan continues to out-perform whatever expectations I have for him, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a big game Monday night, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him struggle against a very smart Spurs team.

Advantage: Spurs

Center

Kuran Gadzuromas vs. Antonio McDyess

I’d almost expect Kurt Thomas to get the start in this one after how well he played on Saturday.  Thomas and Gadzuric seem likely to exchange starting roles based on who the Bucks are playing in Andrew Bogut’s absence.  Thomas knows the Spurs well, having spent the last year and a half in San Antonio.  I’d go as far as to suspect he’ll be spending the majority of the evening as the Bucks primary defender on Tim Duncan.  His veteran know-how and strong base are a better fit on Duncan than Ilyasova’s annoyance.

Advantage: Spurs

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Jodie Meeks, Kurt Thomas and Hakim Warrick

vs.

Dejuan Blair, Roger Mason, George Hill, Matt Bonner and Michael Finley

Bench success has been a staple in the Bucks attack this year.  Warrick, Ridnour, Meeks and Thomas have all had their moments, with Ridnour being the star so far.  They blend seemlessly with the starters and work together to perfection.  Their ball movement has been the thing that’s set them apart from the Bucks of years past.  They aren’t the most talented bunch, but they offer different things.  In fact, they sound very similar to the Spurs.  The Spurs each and every year find reliable performers to come in and give them valuable minutes.  Blair has been the exact rebounder everyone suspected he’d be.  Naturally he fell to the Spurs in the second round.  Finley, Mason and Bonner all hit threes with reliability and Hill is a terrific defender.  The Spurs and Bucks can both throw a lot of different looks at teams, but the Spurs looks are a little more intimidating.

Advantage: Spurs

Prediction: Spurs 93 – Bucks 84

The Bucks and Spurs both rank in the top ten in three-point shots attempted and three-point percentage.  Something’s going to have to give though, because they’re both top three in allowing the three-point shot.  A lot of that has to do with effort, running out on shooters and pushing them off the line.  Two teams that want to be great defensively and occasionally succeed.  And while we know the Bucks allow a lot of free throws, the Spurs aren’t any better.  Through 11 games, the Spurs have allowed 308 free throws compared to 302 for the Bucks.  Perhaps this free throws allowed thing IS a sign of good defense.  The Spurs are rarely bad company to keep on that end of the ball.

This will the the Bucks biggest test of the young season, a road game against a long time Western Conference powerhouse.  If they can pull this one out, without Bogut, without Michael Redd and possibly without Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, it will be a blow to the argument that the Bucks aren’t good and can only beat bad teams.

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About the Author ()

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball. He founded it in January of 2009 because he hated his job. It’s like basketball, but with Bucks instead of basket. I know ... I’m sorry. He might come off as a bit negative, but I'm really not so bad. He just wants the Bucks to succeed, so he points out areas where they are coming up short. Someone has got to do it and he's ornery and opinionated enough to take on that task. He isn't sure if this should be in third person or not. Contact him at Jeremy@Bucksketball.com if you must use e-mail.

Comments (4)

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  1. Brian B says:

    The Bucks have the best record against the Spurs of all the teams in the NBA in the last 10 years……Bucks by 5

  2. curak says:

    Nice summary, as usual. But won’t Kurt Thomas almost certainly start and guard Duncan? They can say McDyess is a center all they want, but Duncan is the center on this team.

  3. Will Swain says:

    Why isn’t Redd gonna play? Can they collect insurance on Redd like the Rockets just did in the case of TMAC?

  4. Dylan says:

    I would like to point out that Michael Redd WILL play tonight. He will only get a few minutes probably but still.