Recently, I had the chance to exchange emails with noted basketball analyst Dave Berri.  Berri was one of few analysts who saw potential in the Bucks at the start of the season, pegging them to finish sixth in the East.  Berri’s new book, Stumbling On Wins, is available on Amazon.com now and will be in stores soon.

The Milwaukee Bucks in 2009-10
After 71 games (team has won 39 games)
WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes
Data taken from Basketball-Reference.com
Return to The Wages of Wins Journal

* – Player is either a rookie, or has limited (recent) NBA history, so 08-09 numbers are the same as 09-10
**- WP48 from 2008-09 is calculated relative to position played in 2009-10
*** – 2008-09 numbers listed for Delfino, Stackhouse, and Brezec come from 2007-08.  Ilyasova’s 2008-09 numbers come from 2006-07

Obviously the Bucks have been the surprise story all year, but you pegged them much higher than most before the season, what did you see differently then and what are you seeing now?

My answer begins with the data (which hopefully is not a surprise). The table presents two perspectives on the players employed by Milwaukee this year.  The first view is the productivity of Milwaukee’s players – measured via Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] – this season.  We also see how the team would look if we assume that what the players did last year (or in their most recent NBA season) would be seen again this season.

The first view (columns 3-4) says the Bucks should have won 38.7 games this season (as of Friday night).  Had these players maintained what they did last year, though, the team would have expected – as of Friday night — to win 32.6 games (columns 5-6).  The only real difference is the play of Ersan Ilyasova.  Back in 2006-07, Ilyasova played very poorly in 973 minutes at the age of 19.  Now that he is 22 he has become a very productive player.

If we knew Ilyasova was going to play this well, then we would have suspected the Bucks – even with the injury to Michael Redd – would have been an above average team this year.  Even without knowing about Ilyasova, though, we still would have suspected the Bucks were better than the media projected.

Remember, the experts at ESPN.com expected the Bucks to rank 14^th out of 15 Eastern Conference teams before the season started.  But Milwaukee had the following above average players on their roster (above average based on past performance): Andrew Bogut, Carlos Delfino (he has generally been a very good NBA player), Luc Mbah a Moute, and Luke Ridnour.  With four above average players it seemed unlikely – as I noted last September (see the post below) – that this team would be awful.

Revising Expectations Upwards in Milwaukee « The Wages of Wins Journal

To understand why the media’s projection was incorrect we need to understand that scoring tends to dominate the standard evaluation of NBA players.  The most productive players on the Bucks, though, are not scorers. Consequently, we should not be surprised that this team was under-estimated. Read more…

Without Andrew Bogut…

• …it’s an understatement to say the Bucks aren’t the same.  Offensively, there was very little room for shooters to operate and the guards had no release valve when they drew extra defenders on penetration.

• …defensively, Milwaukee was equally disastrous.  If I had a dollar for every time a Bucks defender flew by or fouled their man biting on a pump-fake, I’d have a steak dinner coming to me.  Between the poor close out efforts and the lack of interior defense in lieu of Bogut, the Heat ended up at the free-throw line all night Friday (25-28 FT) and made the most of their opportunities inside (34 points in the paint on 17-22 FG).

• …Dwyane Wade was able to get wherever he wanted on the court.  Charlie Bell may have been called the “Wade Stopper” earlier this year, but he had nothing for Wade without Bogut behind him.  Wade finished with the easiest 30 points he’ll ever have (9-14 FG 1-2 3FG 11-12 FT) and sprinkled in seven rebounds and assists for good measure.  He carved up Milwaukee’s defense the entire night.

• …the Bucks were forced to play Primoz Brezec and Dan Gadzuric a combined 32 minutes.  I’m not exaggerating or using hyperbole when I say that Brezec tripped over his own feet and fell down within two minutes of entering the game.  I’m also not exaggerating when I tell you Gadzuric didn’t take a shot outside ten feet, yet finished 2-7 from the field.  Oh, and Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem (the Heat centers most of the night) combined for 25 rebounds and 18 points (6-8 FG 6-8 FT).

• …Brandon Jennings was unable to make an impact.  First, there was concern about Bogut, only to learn he was dealing with some kind of back injury.  Now, there seems to be reason to be concerned about Jennings.  Jennings probably isn’t injured, he’s probably just going through another dip, but that’s not all that concerns me.  It wasn’t so much that Jennings was taking and missing bad shots yesterday, it was that he wasn’t looking to be aggressive.  With Bogut out of the game, it seemed reasonable to expect Jennings to control the offense and look for his own shot early.  He finished the first half with one shot attempt.  Jennings is now 9-34 over his past four games.  Coach Skiles on whether or not Jennings was hesitant:

I feel like he’s been that way since the Sac (Sacramento) game.  We need him to be more aggressive.  However, they were jumping out hard and aggressive with their bigs, pretty much text book of how you want to jump out and aggressively trap people.  I also felt like he was looking to spread the ball when they were jumping out.  It’s a fine line.  When Brandon’s going to his right hand, he’s not nearly as comfortable, they jump out and he tends to pick it up and move it, it’s an area he’s still working on.

• …is one thing, but without Bogut or Ersan Ilyasova (flu), the Bucks front line was beyond depleted.  The newly signed Darnell Jackson was not yet with the team and the Bucks simply were outmatched inside.  Milwaukee was outrebounded on the defensive glass 37-19.  They made up some of that deficit on the offensive boards, winning that battle 17-9, but what good does it do when Brezec and Gadzuric grab offensive boards only to miss another shot?  Even the typically strong finishing Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was 2-10, with a number of misses inside.

• …the Bucks shot 31.5% and allowed the Heat to shoot 49.2%.

• …the Bucks didn’t block a shot.

• …Milwaukee had fewer assists (nine) than turnovers (10).

• …and Ilyasova was making it hard enough on the Bucks and then things turned for the worse.  Carlos Delfino went down on a drive in the second quarter and has his head/neck area inadvertently stepped on by Heat power forward Udonis Haslem on a rebound.  Haslem made an outlet pass and the Heat moved down the court, but Delfino didn’t move.  He continued to lie under the hoop until a stretcher was brought out to carry him off.  The Bucks reported that he did have movement in his extremities and he was being taken to the hospital for precautionary x-rays.  No further word was available on Delfino, but keep him in your thoughts.

• …the Bucks weren’t so good Friday night and it was clear in every which way.  The Bucks lack a competent back-up plan if Kurt Thomas is in foul trouble like he was Friday, making Bogut’s absence all the more notable.  Before the game, Coach Skiles said he’d hoped Bogut would be back Sunday, said this injury had nothing to do with his last back injury and wrote it off as “back spasms more or less.”  I’m skeptical but hopeful.  One thing is clear though …

Without Andrew Bogut, the Bucks can kiss any playoff optimism goodbye.

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 39-31

Vs.

Miami Heat (Erik Spoelstra) 38-34

Date: 3/26/2010

Time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin and NBA TV

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Carlos Arroyo

The shipping out of Rafer Alston initially seemed like a questionable move, given that he helped Orlando so tremendously last season after Jameer Nelson went down, but the more I look the more I like it.  Miami doesn’t have the talent around their point guards to make up for poor effort on defense or freelancing in the offense or just a general problem in the locker room.  At any given time, Alston can be those things.  Arroyo has some flair in his game, but isn’t all that good.  Why Chalmers still doesn’t start is beyond me, but he appears to be a little off-kilter himself.  Regardless, the point guard position in Miami ends up being Wade’s by game end anyway.  Jennings has struggled mightily in his last two; a rebound game would be nice.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…

The Bucks have signed Darnell Jackson, formerly of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Jackson (6′9 253, and I don’t know about that 253, more like 275) provides the Bucks with some additional size for the stretch run and will likely backup the Bucks power forwards and possibly could see a minute or two at center.

Ultimately, he’ s an insurance policy and a big body in case something goes wrong up front.  He immediately becomes the largest power forward on the Bucks roster.  Last week, the Bucks brought in D-Leaguers Shavlik Randolph and Alexander Johnson as insurance at the four, but opted to sign Jackson instead.

Jackson appeared in 27 games for Cleveland this season, and a combined 78 games over the past two seasons with averages of 1.5 points and 1.4 rebounds in 7.0 minutes.  He started in two games for the Erie BayHawks (NBDL) this season and averaged 33.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game.

Since he’s been waived and claimed after March 1st, he will not be eligible for the playoffs.

The Bucks roster now stands at 15.

Recap/Box Score

And we have a new word for the glossary.

The Trap Game.

The trap game is simple.  Let’s say you have a team that’s been hot, really hot, like let’s say 15-2 over their last 17 games hot.  And there were some pretty good wins in that 15, like recent ones over Denver, in Denver nonetheless, and at home against a possible playoff opponent in Atlanta.  There are some tough games coming up too, like the one against another team fighting for playoff positioning in the conference.  But there’s a game before the schedule toughens up.  A game against a team languishing near the bottom of the conference, a team that hasn’t performed up to expectations and is caught in some sort of purgatory, not super bad, but without much of a future.  They come out sluggish and look like they weren’t completely ready for this team and … they blow it.

That’s your trap game and that’s what happened to the Bucks Wednesday night against the Sixers.

Milwaukee had been coming out flat for the last few games, but typically clawed their way back into them and found a way to win.  In Sacramento it took overtime and a little bit of luck, but the Bucks kept it close enough to be lucky.  Against Atlanta, John Salmons got hot and carried the Bucks past the Hawks.  But there was no getting hot against Philadelphia, there was no keeping it close and there was no happy ending, just a disappointing loss that detracts from the impressive win in Denver last Saturday.  Beating the better teams means a lot more when a team takes care of business against the dregs of the league and the Bucks were unable to do that against Philly.

So, losing a trap game is an issue, but I took something else out of this one too, something that means much more.

Coming into the year, the Sixers were supposed to be a good team and it’s possible that’s the team that showed up tonight.  They’re athletic, they have good one on one players, they force turnovers and they’re a tough matchup for a lot of teams.  In short, they remind of me of the Hawks.  The switching on screens, the length all over and athletic front court were all problems for the Bucks offensively.  Sure, Milwaukee was passive going inside or driving to the hoop (see 5-28 3FG), but when they did get in it seemed like Philadelphia had defenders waiting, with length.

Jrue Holiday gave the Milwaukee point guards lots of problems on offense and defense and with his size and wingspan, he’s reminiscent of Joe Johnson, who took the challenge of guarding the Milwaukee point guards in the last two matchups.  Coach Scott Skiles was asked why his Bucks have had problems with the Sixers this year and he was quick to answer:

“They’re very athletic, they’re quicker than we are at some key spots and, you know, they get in some passing lanes, they’re disruptive and it’s bothered us.”

Sound like anyone you know?  Hint: they won Wednesday night. Read more…