By game six in a seven game playoff series, there are no secrets any more. Both teams know what their opponent wants to do, both teams know what their own teams must do to win. By game six, it simply comes down to which team’s will is stronger, who’s better at imposing their game on the opponent. Typically it’s a no-brainer in my mind that this is where talent comes out on top.
But it’s not that simple anymore.
Milwaukee has so blurred the lines of talent in this series, that I’m not sure we can truly measure the more talented team. The common perception thus far has been this series has been more Atlanta blowing it than Milwaukee taking it. I’m not buying that. Milwaukee isn’t a pretty team and they don’t have great offensive statistics, but what happened to that old axiom that defense and rebounding win when it slows down in the playoffs. Have we all forgotten that?
This series has been a testament to the difficulty we have in measuring defensive abilities and hustle. When Milwaukee holds Atlanta to at the rim shooting percentages of 48%, 41% and 58%, all under their season average of 63%, it still is spun more as Hawks missing layups rather than Milwaukee challenging them. Something changed after the first two games in this series and Milwaukee imposed their will on Atlanta.
So while we’ve seen all kinds of statistical advances over the last few years, we’re still not quite there yet. We can’t accurately measure each aspect of every game. Sometimes, you just have to see it to believe it. If you’ve watched the last three games of this series, I have a hard time you can honestly believe the Hawks are the superior team. 82 games worth of regular season data may indicate otherwise, but the playoffs are a different animal.
An animal the Bucks could tame this evening. Read more…
Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?
Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night. Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net. Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots. One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed. You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says, “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”
A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though. Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.
Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four. The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.
Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.
After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?
Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.
When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one. Read more…
“Most teams, the role players play better at home.”
- Jerry Stackhouse after game four
So Stack already has me a little concerned for game five. After notably strong efforts out of Dan Gadzuric, Carlos Delfino and Kurt Thomas in their game tying win on Monday, Milwaukee will need to once again get more out of their role players than Atlanta. That’s true of any team, everyone likes to get more out of their secondary players, but it’s especially true for a team like Milwaukee that’s featuring their role players much more heavily. One could argue that Atlanta has only three or four role players they’ll trot out there (Jamal Crawford, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams and if you want to label him as a role player, Al Horford), but Milwaukee has two main men in Brandon Jennings and John Salmons, flanked by role players. What’s nice about this is that it’s difficult to project which one will step up. What’s bad about this, is that it’s not always the case that anyone steps up. It’s tough to expect Carlos Delfino to hit another six threes, but if he can hit half of his threes and Ersan Ilyasova has another strong game, Milwaukee may not need much more than strong performances again out of Jennings and Salmons to pull this one out. Read more…
This video is A. an illustration of Milwaukee's love for Jennings and
B. some delightful over dribbling that worked out
The word is out and Tyreke Evans will be named rookie of the year later this week.
But don’t tell Bucks fans that they are supposed to want anyone else manning their team for the foreseeable future, because Brandon Jennings has captured the imagination of Milwaukee during the playoffs.
Throughout the season, Evans handily dominated the numbers in the rookie of the year debate. After all, Evans is one of just four rookies ever to average over 20 points, five rebounds and five assists. So the trophy that is on the way to his mantle is nothing if not well deserved. Jennings averages weren’t so flashy, 15.5 points and 5.7 assists and he wasn’t able to physically dominate in the same manner the hulking 6’6, 220 pound Evans was. This post season has been a shot in the arm for Jennings statistics though. Putting his regular season that featured many more nights at less than 40% shooting behind him, Jennings is currently shooting 46.2% in the playoffs while hitting 38% of his threes an turning the ball over just 1.3 times per game.
As has been his way all season, Coach Skiles has been impressed with Jennings ability to take care of the ball in the playoffs even when things haven’t gone well.
“He’s been good. Game two he struggled shooting the ball, but as he’s done most of the year, it doesn’t spill into the rest of his game,” said Coach Skiles before game four. “He’s not turning the ball over, he’s still running the offense well. So far so good, he’s played well.”
But for the vast majority of these playoffs, Jennings has done more than just “play well”. Jennings has seen his modest 14.5 PER skyrocket up to 23.3 in the playoffs, largely due to his drastic 7.5% improvement in true shooting percentage. In fact, during these playoffs, Jennings has held up very well when compared to other budding stars at the point guard position. Allow me to present exhibit A, a breakdown of usage, turnover percentage and true shooting percentage. Essentially, we’ll see what point guards are using the most possessions and whether they are using them effectively. (Stats are accurate as of before Tuesday’s games)
Player
TS%
USG%
TO%
PER
Brandon Jennings
55%
28%
6.5%
23.3
Derrick Rose
53.2%
27.2%
12.5%
18.6
Deron Williams
67.3%
25.5%
13.1%
27.5
Russell Westbrook
63.9%
24.9%
8.1%
28.7
Rajon Rondo
51.6%
20.1%
18.8%
17.1
Jameer Nelson
64.7%
27.1%
6.4%
29.3
While each of these players has a very different role in his respective team’s offense, I think it’s fair to say Jennings is, at the very least, competitive among some of the better young point guards in the league. He hasn’t exactly been super-human like Russell Westbrook, but had Jennings simply played an average game in the second game of the series (he shot 3-15 while notching just two assists), who knows how good his numbers could look right now.
But as it has been all year with him, it’s about so much more than the statistics with Brandon Jennings.
With Andrew Bogut out of the lineup, Jennings has taken the reigns as the team’s emotional leader and ambassador to the fans. It’s Jennings you saw waving his arms in the air as the final seconds ticked off in the Bucks game four victory. It’s Jennings that was preening and prancing after hitting three early three-point shots in a game three victory and it’s Jennings who has the crowd in the palm of his hand.
“I feel like the crowd, they set the tone,” said Jennings after game four. “They’re the ones that get us going. I can’t wait until Friday, to come back home and try and finish up the series hopefully. It’s been exciting. I’ve been hear all year, this is the loudest I’ve ever heard the Bradley Center.”
Coach Skiles has seen Jennings growth as a leader in the playoffs.
“I think the guys understand that he’s got a lot of talent. And he’s not afraid of playing at this level, he’s not afraid of playing in the playoffs. Every game he tries to come out and be aggressive. So far in this series he’s made the floater a little bit, his three has gone in and obviously it’s a big boost for us when he starts a game knocking down shots because it allows our crowd to get in the game.”
So maybe Brandon Jennings wasn’t the rookie of the year this season. But you’d be hard pressed to find many in Milwaukee who think the city didn’t get a perfect fit in the kid with no fear and a thing for the playoffs.
Check out the reaction by the Bucks bench. Priceless.
If it hadn’t been done before, and it’s probably foolish that it wasn’t, the word “can’t” was officially removed from the dictionary on the Milwaukee Bucks 2009-10 season. It’s uses were once prevalent. Milwaukee can’t get to the line. They can’t score inside without Andrew Bogut. Brandon Jennings can’t finish. The Bucks can’t hang with the Hawks in the playoffs.
Can’t, can’t, can’t, can’t. These Bucks seem to know not of this word. Every time the rest of the world decides they aren’t capable of doing something, they go on and do it anyway. Milwaukee shot 32 free throws Monday night. They outscored the Hawks in the paint 44-26. Jennings was 9-16 from the field and didn’t hit a 3-pointer.
And the Bucks tied up their first round series with the Hawks at two.
In front of a raucous crowd with only a few pockets of empty seats in a sold out Bradley Center, the Bucks squeezed every last drop of effort out of 10 different players and played as close to flawless a game as they have without Bogut. The Bucks, a team once known for their selfishness on the court and corrosive chemistry off of it, relied on the formula that’s been working for them all season: above average ball movement and a sense of togetherness I haven’t seen in Milwaukee.
Asked about this being one of those games the old Bucks used to lose, Jerry Stackhouse had a very appropriate answer after the game:
