Comments on: J.J. Redick vs. a mid-first round draft pick: Who is more valuable?

By: Andyroo

Andyroo — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:43:49 +0000

When making the analysis of whether you want Redick or a 14-17 draft pick, the key question is: when do you want to reap the benefit of your decision? Redick is a proven commodity that would help the team now (and for the next few years, if they were to re-sign him). Not only is a 14-17 draft pick not guaranteed to pan out, but how long will it take him to be a valuable contributor? Most likely not his rookie year: of the guys on this chart only Josh Smith, Danny Granger, Jrue Holliday, Kawhi Leonard, and Iman Shumpert played at least 20 mpg.

That means more than likely, IF the pick pans out, you still won’t see a return until the 2014-15 season, if not the 2015-16 season. Which might be fine… it just depends on whether you’d rather have a proven commodity now or potential for one a few years from now. Personally, I’d rather have Redick than the average 14-17 pick. That’s contingent on re-signing him, of course. And having to lose LRMAM admittedly complicates it… but obviously Orlando has done this analysis as well, so its not surprising they’d need to get more than just the pick in return for Redick.

Also, there are 11 years in your chart, which means there are 44 players involved, and your percentages are off. They should be: 36% no longer in the league; 27% are starters; and 6.8% have made an All-Star team. Unless you get rid of the 11th year (2002), then: 30% no longer in the league; 30% starters; 7.5% All-Stars.

By: Matthew

Matthew — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 23:48:10 +0000

agreed.^

By: Matthew

Matthew — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 23:47:10 +0000

I wish there was a way to make Reddick happen WITHOUT losing the pick. Like adding Lamb or Harris…

By: Patti

Patti — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 23:25:07 +0000

“we could be looking at 4 years/$28 million for Redick. Not horrible, but much more than it would cost to have another player on rookie salary for four years (around $1.2-1.5 million a year).”

Yes, but that is misleading. Larry is producing this year, but has been paid the last three or $5.6 M
If Harris gives us valuable play next season, he will have been paid $4.5M for three years.
Henson, if he is major contributor next year will have been paid $3.7M for two years.
Then all these contracts double so they will be making $3M -$4M +
So although they are inexpensive, there is also the risk that Bucks may never get that player with the same “worth” as Redick at $7M and if/when they do, we just hope the Bucks can hang on to these assets that they have invested years in to their development. (Bogut, Jennings)

We NEED these draft pick/young players. But when you only get ONE pick per year and in order to develop these young players in the NBA, you also need to look for good players that Bucks can get in a fair trade or free agency. The fair trade is not that either party is going to get a “bargain”, but that we need an efficient scoring guard that is 6’4″ to compliment our other players, while having to give up another valuable piece that will benefit trade partner, while not doing significant damage to Bucks team.

It’s not “win now”. It’s either you are an NBA team or you are just another extension of the D-League.

By: i!

i! — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 21:43:25 +0000

I know I’m vulnerable to the bias of valuing our own players highly, but LRMAM is a valuable rotation player. I feel like even on a contender he’d get 15-20 minutes a game (and that a lot of contenders have defensive aces as supporting pieces).

Giving up him AND a pick for Redick seems like a pretty poor deal.

By: Justin

Justin — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 21:25:10 +0000

In the argument of proven commodity vs. potential you always take proven commodity, but right now the Bucks are heavy on potential that most of us fans want to see develop(e.g. Larry Sanders)

And of course if these trades come to fruition and we play the way those pieces are capable of playing then that pick becomes infinitely less valuable anyways

By: Sillybilly

Sillybilly — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 21:18:49 +0000

Great article and I agree with the conclusion and hope that the Bucks start building toward the future instead of trying so hard to ‘win now’.

By: Justin

Justin — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 21:18:23 +0000

ultimate disrespect for a player that didn’t earn a lot of it on the court

By: Your Brother

Your Brother — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 20:51:46 +0000

“Reece Faines”

By: dan

dan — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 20:49:03 +0000

WHO cares about the draft pick reddick isnt even worth bah a moute, milwaukee with these personel moves theyll never make the playoffs