Jennings and Ellis lead the league in “bad shooting nights”

SWAG TWINS SWAG

This post was inspired by this tweet:

I wondered how many times our lovelies Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis had  “bad shooting nights” of 15+ FGA at less than 40 percent. This is what I found.

Data as of 2.11.12

That graph is among players who have had a “bad shooting night” more than 12 times (plus just for fun Kevin Durant and LeBron James). Ellis and Jennings lead the NBA in bad shooting nights at 20 and 19 respectively. This is bad in itself, but it’s even worse when you look at how many games these same players have had “average shooting nights” (15+ FGA, > 40 percent).

Data as of 2.11.12

Ellis and Jennings are the only players on the list who haven’t had more average shooting nights than bad shooting nights. This makes sense, because, you know, they can’t shoot.

What’s surprising about the numbers is that the Bucks are still a .500 team when Monta Ellis has a “bad shooting night” and only a .611 team when his shot is on. His level of play has little effect on the outcome of the game. He’s basically a non-factor.

However, when Jennings has a “bad shooting night,” the Bucks are 4-19 for a .210 winning percentage and when his shot is on, they’re 14-18 for a .777 percentage. The Bucks are at a point where they live or die by Jennings’ shot and that’s a scary place to be.

Another factor I looked at is how the players on this list changed their game when their shot wasn’t falling. Everyone on the list increased their free throw attempts when their shots weren’t falling. Except for Ellis and Jennings. They both decreased their free throw attempts when they didn’t have a shot. It defies logic. Ellis dropped from 5.39 FTA on “average shooting nights” to 3.65 FTA on “bad shooting nights.” Jennings dropped from 5.27 FTA to 3.6 FTA. Ellis also increased his three-point attempts and decreased his assists when he didn’t have a shot. Jennings stayed the same at around six three-point attempts and six assists per game.

So what does this all mean? It means that both Ellis and Jennings are determined to get their shots no matter how they’re performing. They don’t alter their game when they’re shot is off and it shows when you watch them play.

Categories: Sad and Unpopular

Jon Hartzell is a writer/producer at NBA.com who likes the Bucks.

24 Comments

  1. Wow… the truth hurts! Can’t argue with the numbers, and it reflects the inability of the coaching staff to reign either one of these guys in when the shots aren’t dropping. These stats belong on the Bucks pre-game white board where B.J. and M.E. can take a good long stare at it. And Boylan needs to have the guts to call that 30 second time out and say “Brandon/Monta… quit shooting, it’s not falling for you tonight. Instead of getting frustrated and jacking up more jumpers, drive it to the rim, draw fouls, and enable your team mates. If you can’t, I need to sit you down for someone who can.”

    • Couldn’t agree more, so many excuses offered up for Monta and Brandon about how teammates are incapable of scoring and they must take all of the shots. Simply not true. BJEllis can create shooting opportunities for themselves on command but unfortunately can’t convert on these mostly difficult looks. If only they tried to create good shots for their teammates as often the bucks would have a much better chance to win games. If only we put the ball in the low post every once in a while and took our chances there rather than allowing our backcourt to chuck up another attempt. If the ball was shared more this team would reach its potential which is all you can ask. I’m really starting to think that the 55 point game was a bad thing.

      • how dumb can you be? if you seriously would watch the damn games you would see how much jennings and ellis pass and the ball and it ALWAYS ends up right back in their hands, those 2 are always getting around 15 assists combined HOW IS THAT NOT PASSING, good lord their shooting percentage is terrible stick to that instead of throwing out garbage for me to continue smacking back at you

        the other guys on the team arent shooting the ball like you would like and you are blaming jennings and ellis yet you think im the idiot, has it ever crossed your mind that nobody on this team can create a shot like jennings and ellis????

        you dont want jennings to be here next year you have made that clear, this article clearly isnt a positive article yet the stats pointed out that we cannot win without jennings now like said in the article thats not necessarily a good thing but how can you wanna get rid of the source of most of our wins!? the goal should be to get pieces around jennings to make us a better team instead of your idea of just starting over everytime we lose a game.

        how about we stop blaming jennings and ellis and blame other people who are at fault as well??? these other guys on the team could score for the other team and you guys would continue to only focus on jennings and ellis

        • SB, I think what Silly is saying is basically what you are saying…and the underlying point to both of your comments is that there is a difference between passing, and creating good looks. Sure, Monta and Brandon pass a lot, but what I see is that many of their passes are 3-4 feet above the 3 point line, and are usually made for the sole purpose of resetting and re-establishing their dribble (just like you said)… they are not passes that create scoring opportunities and chances for their team-mates to succeed. I personally don’t blame Monta or Brandon. They’re both young, with minimal or no college seasoning, and are playing the way they always have. Their not being TAUGHT how to succeed at the NBA level. When your shot is off, the answer isn’t to keep chucking… by the time you find your shot again you will have dropped 4 straight games (hmmmm). The answer is to find other ways to contribute… take it to the rim, draw fouls, make your free throws, draw the defense and create good looks for your other shooters. Nobody on the staff is willing to get tough with these guys and teach them how to be successful at this level, and the whole team suffers because of it. They are both great, young, but RAW pieces, and the staff isn’t doing them or the team any favors by giving them the unlimited leash they both seem to have.

          When their shots are on, we win. When their shots are off we lose…. considering the best shooters in the league hover around 50%, that’s the makings of a .500 team, at best.

          • ok first off you arguement about their passes is ridiculous, as i have said a number or times they get just about 15 assists at the least together each night, assists are passes that set a team mate up to score so your whole post is not valid here what so ever.

            now to the rest of your post, the answer to their bad shooting percantges should not be getting rid of jennings and ellis it should be bringing in more talent to help them on the night where they are shooting bad so they dont have to continue throwing up shots all the night, and both jennings and ellis mix up their shot selection quite a bit every night, they do not just constantly throw up shots

          • @sp

            “the answer to their bad shooting percantges should not be getting rid of jennings and ellis it should be bringing in more talent to help them on the night where they are shooting bad so they dont have to continue throwing up shots all the night”

            If we pay Jennings and Ellis like they want to be played this offseason we wont have the cap space or draft position to bring in the type of scorers you are alluding to. Also for your information BJEllis are averaging a combined 11 assists per game, Rajon Rondo averaged that himself before being injured.

  2. They both have not shot well, but I do no question BJ’s shot selection this year. Let us not forget how many times BJ passes the ball and other guys do not finish. This makes him often shoot more to compentsate

    • This is a BS excuse. The only players on the squad that convert a lower percentage of their shots than Jennings are Gooden, Lamb, Pryzbilla, Ellis, and Daniels and none of these guys aside from Ellis play much so the shooting sample size for them is a bit skewed.

      I remember Brandon dissing Jeremy Lin publicly last year saying that Lin was only playing so well because he had such talent around him. While I agree that Lin’s talent was a bit over-blown, this was a classless move on Brandon’s part and lends some insight into his thinking. I’m sure he believes his short-comings are due to a lack of talent around him. Truth is his bad play is all on him, his game changes little based on who is on the floor with him because unlike a good pg he does little to alter the game and play to the strengths of his teammates. 4 years is enough trade him away and let him sign an 11 million dollar deal with some other team. The bucks will be just fine without him.

  3. Has anybody noticed that the Bucks won or was even in every stat. catorgory, except shooting percentage. They are actually playing well and without Sanders, have to play more peremitor and have nobody that has an advantage in the paint. Hopefully, when Larry returns that will translate into wins and less jumpers from either Jennings or Ellis. I am confident of such.

  4. Can someone send this article to Herb, John, Ron and John? I’d really love to see them blow it up, but I know it won’t happen.

  5. Well both Jennings and Ellis are shooting 15 FGA per game, so I guess it’s safe to say they are having bad shooting years? The question is how many players in the league can join them in that category and how many teams have two of them?

    The fact that the bucks are.500 despite all of this must say something about them as a team.

  6. You confuse the causation here a little: when Ellis and Jennings have bad shooting nights, they take less free throws as well (which is a factor in a bad shooting nights); however, bad shooting nights do not CAUSE less free throws.

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  10. One of them need to get on the bench.

    I’m thinking something like this:

    Beno, one of them(prefer Ellis), Luc Richard, Ilyasova, and Dalembert with
    the other, Dunleavy, Daniels, and Sanders. Stick with working with those nine and see what you can do.

    Have Jennings come off the bench at the mid-first quarter mark like Jason Terry did back in Dallas and work him that way. Daniels doesn’t demand many shots so Jennings can be the number one option with Dunleavy off the bench.

    Look at what Marquette does now with Gardner, JWilson, and Todd Mayo off the bench. Now they have what-could-be the best bench in NCAA.

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