Larry Sanders is the best, according to science

The Sloan Sports Analytic conference starts at the end of this week, but the research papers the conference is centered around have already been released. The Dwight Effect: A New Ensemble of Interior Defense Analytics for the NBA, by Grantland’s Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss, examines interior defense and prominently features Larry Sanders.

The report analyzes two different ways interior big men can make an impact on the defensive end: lowering the shooting efficiency of opponents and lowering the shooting frequency of opponents close to the basket. The importance of reducing shooting percentages is obvious. Reducing shooting frequency close to the basket is important because that means teams are taking worse shots (mid-range jumpers and three-pointers).

You want keep people from from shooting from that red-orange-yellow on the bottom.

In reducing shooting efficiency near the basket, Sanders is the second best defensive big man in the league just behind Roy Hibbert. NBA shooters make 49.7% of their shots when one of the big men in the study was five feet within the basket. When Sanders is five feet away from the basket, shooting percentages drop to 38.4%.

In terms of reducing frequency of shots near the basket, Sanders is among the worst in the study. Opponents take 61.9% of their shots near the basket when Sanders is five feet from the basket. This accounts for Sanders high number of blocks. He has more opportunities to block opponent’s shots than someone who discourages a lot of attempts near the basket like Dwight Howard. A lot of this measurement is based off of reputation: if Sanders can keep preventing points in the paint, less players will want to shoot near the basket when he’s in the game. But Sanders can still do a lot to prevent shots near the basket.

Sanders was the top performer in an advanced statistic created by the study: proximal FG%. Proximal FG% measures how well opponents shoot when a defender is within five feet of their shot. When Sanders is within five feet of someone’s shot, the opponent shoots 34.9%. The average proximal FG% is 45.6%

Drew Gooden and Ekpe Udoh were also part of the study. Udoh, like Sanders, performed well in reducing the field goal percentages of shooters near him, but a high amount of attempts are near the basket when he is around. Gooden is terrible at all things defense.

You can read the report in full detail here.

 

Ian Segovia has been watching the Milwaukee Bucks for several years and…

11 Comments

  1. It’s so funny how at the beginning of the season we (myself included) were making jokes about his fouling in summer camp, and just basically not thinking much of him other than his upside. Now, he’s become the only “untouchable” Buck at the trade deadline and I can’t imagine the team being much good without him. Awesomeness: Sanders is thy name!

    • I believe I was leading that train.. he must have gone to a hypnotist or something because I still don’t understand how he just one day got it.. so weird and feel so lucky he is on the team now

  2. I read the report when Jon posted the link and found it interesting. Games are won by playing offense and defense and it’s nice to have some meaningful metrics to show the positive impact a player’s defense can have on a team. Let out a big Ah-Ha when I understood the “Howard Effect”.

    Nice job of summarizing that report to more digestible bites!

    Go Larry! Go Bucks!

  3. “I don’t believe in Science, I believe in Jesus” my version of the line from Nacho Libre.. think they messed the color scheme up though.. If red was positive or hot, then shouldn’t blue be ice cold? I’ll bet David Lee’s post defense numbers improve dramatically when Boguie is in there

    • Speaking of Bogut…did you see he is out again because of a protruding
      disk causing back spasms. He is out indefinitely and did not go on their 5 game road trip. He may join the team later in the week.

      Sound familiar Bucks fans? Poor guy just can’t stay healthy.

      • remember that last time he was diagnosed with back spasms, it turned out to be a fracture.. so at least I hope that they are getting the diagnosis correct

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