And after his first game, Jackson seemed like he was heading for a bright week. He scored 17 points, grabbed seven rebounds and looked like Milwaukee’s most polished player. Yet still, as good as Jackson looked, he was still low man on the totem pole that’s become the Bucks power forward situation. He was the most likely to move, and moved he will be in the coming days … for another power forward?

What’s interesting about the Bucks upcoming acquisition of Jon Brockman is that they are getting a player more talented than Jackson and with more of a rotation player ceiling. Brockman could step in and give the Bucks a solid rebounding, hustling power forward for 15 minutes-per-game starting tomorrow if need be. He’s without question better than Darnell Jackson.

And that only leaves things more complicated today than they were yesterday when it comes to the Bucks big man rotation. But not necessarily in a bad way. The depth the Bucks have merely gives them a variety of options for the time being. I’ll go through each of the Bucks options at power forward and attempt to make their probable role a bit more clear.

The mainstay: Drew Gooden
Gooden has the inside track to start opening night for the Bucks. If anything, the versatility Larry Sanders displayed throughout summer league, may have cemented this even further. Sanders often lined up at center for the Bucks in Vegas, giving some legs to the idea that both he and Gooden could split backup center minutes for the Bucks. If Sanders shows he can capably backup Andrew Bogut, as well as play next to him, it probably makes it that much easier for the Bucks to start Gooden.

In addition, Gooden’s contract will likely give him the right to fail his way out of the starting lineup and it also leaves him as the most secure Milwaukee Bucks power forward by default; he cannot be traded until December 15th of next season since he signed a new contract this off season.

The new prospect: Larry Sanders
Heading into Vegas, most weren’t sure if Sanders would have a shot at playing time this season. With an already crowded and young power forward situation, it seemed like Sanders may spend a year largely riding the pine getting adjusted to the speed and strength of pro basketball. But Sanders performed very well in summer league and may have surpassed Ersan Ilyasova as the Bucks most coveted young big. As shocking as his court awareness was on defense, it was the shooting touch Sanders displayed on occasion that was one of the biggest surprises last week in Vegas.

If he can knock down shots with some consistency in training camp and early season games, Sanders could be in line for big minutes. He’ll earn some time on his shot-blocking and rebounding alone. His defense and athleticism were his strengths coming out, but few players that have his athletic gifts are so in control of themselves and able to use them so to their advantage the way Sanders did in summer league.

The old prospect: Ersan Ilyasova
Excitement over Larry Sanders has, to a degree, left Ilyasova a forgotten man. Of all the Bucks bigs, he’s the only one who’s shown a consistent 3-point stroke in the NBA, and that’s something that the Bucks think he’ll improve on going forward. Ersan’s hustle game and rebounding ability do have their limitations though. He’ll never be the athlete that Larry Sanders is and while he gives great effort on defense, he has to rely heavily on getting to the right positions and drawing charges. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but it makes it difficult for him to stand up to the best power forwards. It’s hard to guard Chris Bosh and Amar’e Stoudamire simply by drawing a charge or giving good effort.

Ilyasova is still an intriguing enough prospect that it might make him the most likely Bucks player to be moved. If the Bucks are dangling the contract of Michael Redd in order to get back what they consider a final piece, Ilyasova is the type of player any team will want back in order to sweeten the deal. If the Bucks think that Larry Sanders is their power forward of the future, they likely won’t have much hesitation in including Ilyasova in a deal that they think makes them better.

The swiss army knife: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
The versatility of Mbah a Moute (LRMAM) will never have done him as well as it could this year. It’ll be tough for LRMAM to see a lot of minutes at the four. If the Bucks want to go small, he could still see a few minutes here and there next to Sanders, Gooden or Bogut at the four, but the sheer options and his size limitations would seem to limit his playing time up front. Offensively, LRMAM is without question more effective finishing easy plays inside than he is shooting 15-20 foot jump shots on the perimeter, but I’m sure that’s not news to LRMAM.

It’s likely the Bucks informed him before this off season that they’d be looking to address the power forward position. Hopefully with that in mind, Mbah a Moute has been working on his perimeter skills, as some room could still be open for him at the three. Everyone knows LRMAM is going to be out there mainly for his defense and with this added depth, they’ll be able to deploy their stopper with lineups that mesh well with his offensive limitations. His ability to guard any position on the floor makes it easy to envision their being 15-20 minutes-per-game available for him next season, one way or the other.

The hustler and The project: Jon Brockman and Tiny Gallon
If the Bucks enter the regular season with their roster looking like it currently does, it’s difficult to envision much time for either of these two. Both will be eligible for the D-League, though I wouldn’t bet on Brockman going down to work on his game. He’s already an NBA rebounder and he probably won’t be launching jumpers any time soon. Brockman could just work his way into Scott Skiles rotation as so many undersized hard working forwards have done before him. Adrian Griffin? Malik Allen? Those guys were no more talented than Brockman. Skiles will make sure none of his guys are taking anything for granted.

Gallon could use the work on his game at the lower level. He could get a better feel for the NBA 3-point line and work on limiting the turnovers that haunted him this summer. Gallon was forcing things a bit in Vegas, but did show tremendous potential as a rebounder. At 19-years-old, Gallon has loads of time on his side. A year in the D-League  or, if the Bucks so choose, on the end of the bench, wouldn’t do him much harm.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com

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It’s probably safe to assume that the glut of forwards could be relieved to a degree by making the most of the flexibility of some. Drew Gooden for example, can moonlight as a backup center. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has played small forward on occasion in his two years in Milwaukee, though with less success that he’s had at the four. Still, it’s not like the Bucks are stuck with five plodders who can’t move anywhere else.

Yet still, it seems a possibility that the Bucks may move one of their forwards in order to obtain more flexibility at the guard position. Gery Woelful has recently reported that A. the Bucks have gotten feelers on Mbah a Moute and Ersan Ilyasova and B. that the Bucks likely will bid farewell to Luke Ridnour.

Could the Bucks be looking to lighten their load at the four and bring in someone who could take some minutes backing up Brandon Jennings at the same time? It’s possible. But moving Ilyasova or Mbah a Moute may be a big mistake.

As fun as the NBA off season is (and I use the term fun very loosely, as this one has been equal parts excruciating and entertaining), it still amounts to gambling. While it seems like Milwaukee’s done a great deal to improve itself for next season by acquiring Drew Gooden and drafting Larry Sanders to help on the front line, it’s impossible to tell how either of them will fit in. And in the case of Sanders, while summer league may be an indicator, until he actually starts getting minutes in the NBA no one will know if he’s ready to make the impact a playoff team like Milwaukee will need. So as fun as it is to project, dream and hope, Milwaukee’s new acquisitions are still unknown commodities.

But Ilyasova and Mbah a Moute are known and valuable.

Ilyasova has probably been at the center of more trade discussion with regard to the Bucks over the past few months than any other player and it’s as easy to understand as it is puzzling. He’s a valuable player. Ilyasova out performs his contract and seems to have room to grow. No one knows what kind of player Ilyasova will become, but most can agree that he’s the kind of player every team would love to have. Of the top 20 power forwards in total rebound rate last season, only Troy Murphy was more successful as a 3-point shooter.

Ilyasova finished last year with a better rebound rate that Dirk Nowitzki and higher field goal percentage than Rashard Lewis. All while showing enough energy on the defensive end to finish second among power forwards in charges taken. There’s enough to like about the player that Ilyasova already is to wonder if he could be the best power forward on Milwaukee’s roster next season. Assuming he’s still on the roster.

Meanwhile, Mbah a Moute has established himself as one of the NBA’s most feared defenders. He’s the defender the mighty Kevin Durant was tweeting about last season. He’s the one who burst onto the scene as a rookie and has yet to relinquish his minutes. Mbah a Moute has earned every bit of playing time he’s had since he’s been in Milwaukee despite his offensive liabilities. Yet he now may face a further diminished role, or even worse, exile. What’s amazing is that he’ll certainly lose power forward minutes to Gooden, who’s not exactly known as much of a defender. The Bucks, a team that prides itself on its defense, is in effect, replacing the best defender on the team with an offensive player.

But if Milwaukee does keep around Ilyasova and Mbah a Moute, minutes will be that much more difficult for first round pick Sanders to come by. This very likely won’t mirror last season when Jennings won the starting point guard spot coming out of training camp or even two years ago when Mbah a Moute averaged 30 minutes a game in his first month in the league. The Bucks simply have more bodies at the four than they did at point guard last year and have more talent than they did two years ago. So far, Milwaukee hasn’t cleared the way for Sanders the way they did for Jennings, though if Sanders shows he’s the real deal at summer league that may be a different story come August.

It’s likely that Sanders and fellow rookie Tiny Gallon will face quite a mountain to climb in order to get minutes if the Bucks choose to keep their deep front court in tact and take a route other than trading a power forward to find a backup point guard. Without a trade going down I see a mix of Gooden, Ilyasova and Mbah a Moute dominating the minutes at power forward (though it may be wise to bring Gooden off the bench and split his minutes between PF and C). However, if Sanders has a Jennings like impact in Summer League, who knows how things could unfold. What seems certain though, given the promise of what’s to come with Ilyasova and defensive importance of Mbah a Moute, is that the Bucks would be very wise to be very careful in moving either of them for a quick fix behind Brandon Jennings.

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Teams and fans alike have more or less learned to accept this as Maggette’s offensive game. The pluses seem to outweigh the minuses, so Maggette continues to collect paychecks and find ample playing time. But that awareness bugaboo rears its ugly head on the defensive end as well and it’s there that the concern that Corey Maggette may destroy everything that was good and fun about the Milwaukee Bucks last year as soon as he steps on the court.

Within seconds of the finalization of the trade that brought him over from Golden State, Maggette was being labeled the Bucks weak link defensively. His poor defensive rating, offensive mindset and the checkered success of the teams he’s played on make him an easy target for those worried about the Bucks messing with the good thing that was last season’s team. Immediately after the trade, I noted that Maggette’s field goal percentage against and defensive rating both were considerably worse than Carlos Delfino, the Bucks primary small forward last season. But it’s possible the change of scenery may do wonders for Maggette the defender and that I underestimated just how damaging playing in Golden State’s system was for him, his lack of awareness be damned.

A good starting point is the field goal percentage Maggette allowed. To an extent, it’s really difficult to hang Maggette out to dry for allowing a high percentage of shots to be made against him. The most glaring difference in the successes against defending certain plays that Maggette and Delfino faced was their difference in defending post-ups. Maggette was posted up 179 times last season and scored upon 49.2% of the time. Delfino was posted up 69 times last season and scored upon 42% of the time. Is Delfino  a vastly superior post defender than Maggette? That seems doubtful. Let’s dig further in to who was doing the work on these two.

Maggette spent games guarding David West, Dirk Nowitzki, Andrea Bargnani/Chris Bosh, Zach Randolph, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love and Charlie Villanueva to name a few.

Delfino was posted up by, among others, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Paul Pierce, Tayshaun Prince, Shaun Marion and Carmelo Anthony.

Simply looking at those lists of names, isn’t it clear that Maggette was going to have more problems defending inside than Delfino? This isn’t Maggette’s fault. He was spending the majority of his time on the court last season at the unnatural position of power forward. Given his strength and athleticism, I’d be willing to bet he’s a much better fit defending small forwards posting up than Delfino is. It’s not unreasonable to assume his  defensive shooting percentage while defending post-ups would be much closer to Delfino’s if he were a Bucks player last season. But, Maggette struggled defending players outside the arc every bit as much as he did in the paint.

Maggette allowed 44.2% 3-point shooting on the season. He wasn’t alone in poor 3-point defense on the Warriors though, as the team finished second worst in the NBA in defending the three with opponents shooting 37.5% against them. Watching Synergy Sports Video of Maggette’s attempts to defend the three, or most players on the Warriors attempts to defend the three for that matter, shows a distinct difference in how the Warriors and Bucks value defense.

Time and again Maggette and his teammates were slow to rotate over to open shooters. By the time most Warriors were able to make it over to a shooter, they lazily closed out with hands sort of high. Such disinterest and lack of effort defensively simply won’t allow Maggette to get minutes in Milwaukee, of that I can assure you. Effort seems to come easier to those on winning teams, so it’s natural to expect Maggette to find the energy to close harder on 3-point shooters. Of course, Maggette’s laissez faire defensive attitude and general lack of awareness stands out here. Perhaps in the same way that you won’t often see him make a great extra pass, it will be difficult to envision him rotating onto an open man to prevent a clean look at the hoop.

But this is something that makes the Corey Maggette’s of the world enticing. It’s not difficult to project that with proper coaching and a little more effort, they can be more than competent defenders. Perhaps you remember the first half of the Milwaukee Bucks season last year. There was no “Fear the Deer” mantra. It was just a team full of high effort guys that were more often than not physically over matched. Charlie Bell was stuck guarding players three and four inches taller than him and 20 pounds heavier. He wasn’t quick enough to stick with most point guards, but had trouble with bigger shooting guards.

And this was one of the Bucks premier perimeter defenders. It’s no wonder that A. B. and C. on the Bucks list of things to do this off season was add more athleticism and length. Even if a player that contained that athleticism is dogged by whispers about a losing mentality and a lack of defensive awareness.

The not-so-secretive secret to success in the NBA is to have gobs of talent, athleticism and skill and find the right coach to navigate the bumpy road of egos and motivation to get everyone on the same page. Last year was a testament to the success Coach Scott Skiles had in that regard. He proved he could handle a mildly talented team, generally a group that seems as if it would be easier to handle. Now Skiles will get an opportunity to handle a squad with more. More talent, more skill, more athleticism and potentially more problems. At or near the top of Coach Skiles things to do in training camp this year will certainly be, “get Corey Maggette playing Milwaukee Bucks defense.” Hopefully for Milwaukee, that will not require the kind of magic most initially thought it would.

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The word is out and Tyreke Evans will be named rookie of the year later this week.

But don’t tell Bucks fans that they are supposed to want anyone else manning their team for the foreseeable future, because Brandon Jennings has captured the imagination of Milwaukee during the playoffs.

Throughout the season, Evans handily dominated the numbers in the rookie of the year debate.  After all, Evans is one of just four rookies ever to average over 20 points, five rebounds and five assists. So the trophy that is on the way to his mantle is nothing if not well deserved. Jennings averages weren’t so flashy, 15.5 points and 5.7 assists and he wasn’t able to physically dominate in the same manner the hulking 6’6, 220 pound Evans was. This post season has been a shot in the arm for Jennings statistics though.  Putting his regular season that featured many more nights at less than 40% shooting behind him, Jennings is currently shooting 46.2% in the playoffs while hitting 38% of his threes an turning the ball over just 1.3 times per game.

As has been his way all season, Coach Skiles has been impressed with Jennings ability to take care of the ball in the playoffs even when things haven’t gone well.

“He’s been good.  Game two he struggled shooting the ball, but as he’s done most of the year, it doesn’t spill into the rest of his game,” said Coach Skiles before game four. “He’s not turning the ball over, he’s still running the offense well. So far so good, he’s played well.”

But for the vast majority of these playoffs, Jennings has done more than just “play well”. Jennings has seen his modest 14.5 PER skyrocket up to 23.3 in the playoffs, largely due to his drastic 7.5% improvement in true shooting percentage.  In fact, during these playoffs, Jennings has held up very well when compared to other budding stars at the point guard position.  Allow me to present exhibit A, a breakdown of usage, turnover percentage and true shooting percentage.  Essentially, we’ll see what point guards are using the most possessions and whether they are using them effectively. (Stats are accurate as of before Tuesday’s games)

While each of these players has a very different role in his respective team’s offense, I think it’s fair to say Jennings is, at the very least, competitive among some of the better young point guards in the league.  He hasn’t exactly been super-human like Russell Westbrook, but had Jennings simply played an average game in the second game of the series (he shot 3-15 while notching just two assists), who knows how good his numbers could look right now.

But as it has been all year with him, it’s about so much more than the statistics with Brandon Jennings.

With Andrew Bogut out of the lineup, Jennings has taken the reigns as the team’s emotional leader and ambassador to the fans.  It’s Jennings you saw waving his arms in the air as the final seconds ticked off in the Bucks game four victory.  It’s Jennings that was preening and prancing after hitting three early three-point shots in a game three victory and it’s Jennings who has the crowd in the palm of his hand.

“I feel like the crowd, they set the tone,” said Jennings after game four. “They’re the ones that get us going.  I can’t wait until Friday, to come back home and try and finish up the series hopefully.  It’s been exciting.  I’ve been hear all year, this is the loudest I’ve ever heard the Bradley Center.”

Coach Skiles has seen Jennings growth as a leader in the playoffs.

“I think the guys understand that he’s got a lot of talent. And he’s not afraid of playing at this level, he’s not afraid of playing in the playoffs.  Every game he tries to come out and be aggressive.  So far in this series he’s made the floater a little bit, his three has gone in and obviously it’s a big boost for us when he starts a game knocking down shots because it allows our crowd to get in the game.”

So maybe Brandon Jennings wasn’t the rookie of the year this season.  But you’d be hard pressed to find many in Milwaukee who think the city didn’t get a perfect fit in the kid with no fear and a thing for the playoffs.

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(A thanks to BasketballValue.com for the numbers, what a great site.)

A few notes:

• Defensively, a Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova front court seems to be the Bucks best bet.  The lineup that combined the two of them with John Salmons, Jerry Stackhouse and Luke Ridnour had a defensive rating of 88.75, lowest among the seven I listed.

• Combinations involving Brandon Jennings and Ridnour typically fare well – with or without Bogut.  At least offensively.  As I was writing yesterday, the Bucks create a lot of their offense from the wings in.  When Jennings or Ridnour are on a wing, they can really make use of their ball-handling and penetration skills. In over 25 minutes together when paired with Charlie Bell, Ilyasova and Thomas, their unit was plus 38.  Imagine if Salmons stepped in for Bell on those?  Looking at these numbers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more lineups with those two again.  I suppose that would be “going small” again.

• With a very small sample size of just 13 minutes, Ilyasova was not a disaster at center.  Playing with Stackhouse at the four (I think primarily against the Hawks) his lineup had a difference of plus 4.5 in terms of offense rating against defense rating.  Whether he could hold up against a larger front line (Boston’s perhaps) is still up in the air

• Numbers don’t tell the story of Kurt Thomas’ foul problems so much.  When the Bucks last played the Heat without Bogut, Thomas played only 15 minutes due to foul trouble.  Thomas hasn’t had any restrictions on his fouls, but now that he’ll be playing more minutes, he’ll have to be more judicious.  We’ll see how this changes his game.

• I don’t expect to see much Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at the three.  Playing him with Ilyasova and Thomas gives the Bucks a stout defensive unit, but leaves them with virtually no creativity offensively.  The only way I see that line-up having success offensively would be with Ridnour and Jennings in the back court.  That might be worth visiting.

• A wild card in this is Darnell Jackson.  He hasn’t been used at all and won’t be available for the playoffs, but he’ll probably get some minutes coming down the stretch.  Whether or not he’ll take away minutes from the Dan Gadzuric and Brezec duo remains to be seen.

• Speaking of the dynamic duo, where do they fit in the rest of the way?  Brezec hasn’t played enough with any group to have a real sample size, but we can be sure that he’s plodding and not very good.  Gadzuric has some hope, if only because he’s athletic and an okay rebounder.  The Jennings, Bell, Delfino, Ilyasova and Gadzuric unit has a good sample size of nearly a full game and has a positive differential.  If I had to guess, and it’s admittedly hard to predict coach Skiles, I’d say we see roughly 10 minutes a game from Gadzuric the rest of the way.

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Can Delfino get it going with Bogut out?

Contrary to popular belief, the Bucks season is not over.  Nor does the NBA delay the start of the playoffs until Andrew Bogut is healthy.  And don’t expect a first round bye because the Bucks would have been competitive with a healthy Bogut.  No, the NBA keeps moving forward every day.  So that’s what the Bucks must do.

But how?  How can the Bucks get past an injury of this magnitude, at this juncture in the season?  Bogut has been the centerpiece for most of what the Bucks have done right, offensively and defensively, in the last two seasons.  There simply is no replacing Bogut, especially not with six games left in the regular season.  So the Bucks must find a way to remain competitive without being able to replicate everything Bogut gives them.

And naturally, that will put pressure on the remaining members of the Bucks front court.  Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova should see the most significant increases in minutes, with Thomas likely stepping in as the new starting center and Ilyasova probably seeing some more time at the five in small ball lineups.  But I’m not convinced either of them will have to take anything more unto themselves with Bogut out.  Milwaukee isn’t all of a sudden going to slide either Thomas or Ilyasova into Bogut’s spot on the offense and dump the ball into them in the post.  It’s just not their game.  I expect each to be more productive, especially Ilyasova and I’ll get to that in a minute, but I don’t expect a great deal more usage out of them.

But, as odd as this appears, I do expect more out of Carlos Delfino.

Something’s occurred to me in the last few games.  Something that explains an awful lot about why things have gone the way they have for the Bucks this season.  Something I only dove into once a reader pointed out that Brandon Jennings stands around the top of the key an awful lot.  And it’s something that completely explains why the Bucks have prospered without Michael Redd, but are being sentenced to season execution after the loss of Bogut.

The Bucks rely an awful lot on their swingmen.  I mean, like A LOT.  A TON.  Watch the Bucks in the halfcourt, it seems as if every other time down their going to Delfino or John Salmons on the wing and looking for them to either dump it inside to Bogut, pick and roll or create something on their own.  At this point, Jennings (or Luke Ridnour) often float around the arc, waiting for a kick out that they can shoot or swing to the other wing.  That seems to be a lot of the Bucks offense.

So it’s always been important to the success of the Scott Skiles Bucks to have wing players that can create and make decisions, two things that have never been the strong suit of Redd or Charlie Bell. Doesn’t it make a little more sense that neither of them fit so well into this offense?  I mean, if you were running a team, would YOU want Michael Redd given the option of creating for teammates or trying to score and get to the line?  He frequently chose the latter and it hurt this season more than it helped.  There’s a reason that the Bucks offense was 12 points better per 100 possessions when Redd is off the court this year.  He plays a position that’s vital to the success of the team offensively.

In addition, it makes sense that the Bucks surged to such great heights once Salmons, a slasher that is willing to create opportunities for others, stepped in for Bell, a spot-up shooter.  The Bucks are seven points better per 100 possessions with Salmons on the court offensively.

But now, one of the options for the wings has been removed.  There will be no more dumping it down inside for the easy Bogut basket.  Both Thomas and Ilyasova are capable pick and pop players, something Bogut wasn’t, but both of them have very little with regards to a post-up game.  Now I suspect the pick and roll, already a featured option in the offense, will become even more prominent.

And it will fall on Salmons and Delfino to make the correct choices.  I don’t expect Milwaukee to scrap their entire offense and start running pick and rolls for Jennings every time down like the Golden State game.  Or let him take over and carve up the lane trying to find open space to float up a shot, because he doesn’t quite have that touch yet.  Jennings may run through on his passes and come out to the wings, getting the ball on a reverse (thereby making him a wing) but we’ll see if that really happens.  That’s kind of what Steve Nash does pretty frequently, with great success.  I’m expecting Delfino to look more like a poor man’s Salmons, driving and kicking or driving and finishing more than he’s been doing lately.

But like I said earlier, I expect Ilyasova’s numbers to improve.  He’s going to be getting 30 minutes a night and he’s going to be pounding the glass.  With no Bogut, that leaves Ilyasova with the highest percentage of rebounds grabbed while on the court by a Buck not named Dan Gadzuric. And we all know that Gadz only gets that many boards because he hits the bottom of the rim with his own shots.  When Ilysaova’s in, he’ll typically get a bucket or two off of the offensive glass.  With Bogut, the team’s best shooter percentage wise, not active, there should be more opportunities for Ersan to get on the offensive glass and work his great touch down low for baskets.

It’s not all gloom and doom right now for the Bucks.  Winning without Bogut won’t be easy, but this shouldn’t prevent Milwaukee from making the playoffs.  A first round series win was going to be a challenge with the big man and will be a greater one without him.  But if the Bucks want to make it happen, it’ll have to be a great balance, even greater than what they offer now, that gets them there.

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There’s no question that the Milwaukee Bucks deadline acquisition of John Salmons has undoubtedly paid off short term, helping solidify the Bucks as a top five team in the Eastern Conference. Since traveling north on the Interstate 94 up to Milwaukee, Salmons is averaging a career best 19.9 points per contest on nearly 46% shooting, 37% from behind the arc, and 87% from the charity stripe. His immediate impact towards the Bucks success heading down the home stretch of the season has reached and exceeded the expectations of the entire city of Milwaukee.

While it’s appropriate that Bucks fans and the city of Milwaukee alike enjoy this well deserved surge as the playoffs near, it’s also never too early to begin looking at Salmons’ future with the Bucks. This summer Salmons will have to make a difficult career decision: accept his $5.8 million dollar player option to remain with the Bucks or decline his player option and test the waters of free agency amongst the NBA’s most historic free agent class.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Salmons decline his player option and see what the market is for his services this summer. With the NBA salary cap likely to drop next season and then again after CBA negotiations in 2011, now’s the time for players like Salmons to consider risking the final year of their player option deals and lock up a long term pay raise.

But even more specifically for Salmons, the timing is perfect helping the Bucks transform from a team that looked like it’d barely squeak into the playoffs to a team that is widely regarded as a first round opponent no one wants to face. The time is right, the decision may come which enables Salmons to become a unrestricted free agent, and the ball will then be shifted into the hands of Bucks General Manager John Hammond.

Why it makes sense for the Bucks to resign John Salmons

It’s pretty clear and can easily be simply put: John Salmons brings a lot of strengths on both the offensive and defensive sides of the floor that the Bucks were lacking. On offense, Salmons is a swingman who likes to put the ball on the floor and has the ability to effectively get to the basket which leads to easy scoring looks or wide open kick out opportunities for his teammates. His ability to be create shots attracts defensive attention which gives the Bucks perimeter shooters (Ersan Ilyasova, Carlos Delfino, Charlie Bell, Brandon Jennings, Luke Ridnour, and (occasionally) Jerry Stackhouse) a good look from outside. Also being a successful offensive performer in isolation situations makes him invaluable to the Bucks offense because he can take a game over down the stretch of close games, providing balance. Having a postman in Andrew Bogut and a wingman like Salmons gives the Bucks both an inside and outside offensive threat that can create their own shot, which usually requires a help side defensive effort.

In addition to his abilities with the ball in his hands, Salmons also requires the defensive to respect his range, as he’s able step into shots from the perimeter and knock down open three pointers. And maybe the most overlooked factor Salmons has brought to the Bucks since coming over from Chicago is his ability to get to the foul line early and often. Early on into the season the Bucks struggled to earn trips to the foul line, which is a huge concern for any team that’s looking to be successful. Salmons tends to not only finish around the rim after drawing contact but can cap off three point plays and drill important free throws when the game is on the line.

Defensively he’s very solid man to man, he’s very well conditioned, and is able to continue to produce on the offensive side of the floor while also being held responsible of stopping the opponent’s go-to perimeter player. Finding a very strong offensive player that is able and even more importantly willing to give effort on both sides of the ball is something the Bucks must value in Salmons.

If Salmons does happen to opt out of his $5.8 million, a realistic offer that could keep him right here in Milwaukee should be around the three year, $21 million dollar range. But the Bucks may also finding themselves bidding with both the teams looking to add all-stars (Knicks, Heat, Clippers, Nets) and those teams that will lose their all-stars this offseason (Hawks, Cavaliers, Suns). Salmons is an affordable piece and a attractive player that can surround and help take some pressure off a star like LeBron James.

For the Bucks, it’s also worth mentioning Salmons’ value in taking pressure off Michael Redd. Keeping Salmons helps relieves the pressure off Redd’s recovery timetable. While the expectations for a healthy Redd have dropped significantly, the play of Salmons helps take the focus off the injured Bucks star who’s due to make a massive $18.3 million next year. With Redd rushing back the past two seasons, which in an end result led to reoccurring injuries and setbacks, Salmons can help keep Bucks fans patient. Patience is a virtue and come summertime the Bucks may also want remain patient before immediately offering Salmons an extension.

Why the Bucks shouldn’t resign John Salmons

While the idea of just letting John Salmons walk sounds crazy, there are a few concerns worth noting. Take a look at Salmons recent history with the Chicago Bulls. After heading over in a trade from Sacramento during the 2008-2009 season, Salmons elevated the Bulls play over a 26 game stretch where he averaged 18.3 point per game on 47% shooting, nearly 42% from deep, and 84% from the foul line. This year with Bulls, Salmons’ play dropped off dramatically which definitely raises some questions, especially after the Bulls opted not to match Detroit’s contract offer to Ben Gordon, figuring that Salmons could have even more of an impact. Salmons seems to be player who prospers in short stint positions with teams. Yes, he’s been very dependable thus far but the real question is, for how long will it last?

Keeping him under contract for around three years limits the amount of money the Bucks will able to play with in upcoming free agent classes. Salmons is a “handle with care” investment that may not be worth the downside. Instead, Milwaukee can continue of their path of going young and building a future foundation. Bucks have a grand total of nine draft picks in the next three drafts, should we be focused on drafting and developing our future shooting guard or rolling the dice on a 30 year-old veteran whose performance has been very unpredictable? Next year Jennings will only be 21, Mbah a Moute 24, Ilayasova just 23, and Bogut 26, with steady progress from these young talents, the Bucks have the opportunity to compete as one of the top young, upcoming nucleuses in the NBA (Thunder, Blazers, Timberwolves).

In year’s past, it’s safe to say Salmons is a bit indecisive when it comes to career decisions. First agreeing to be traded in a sign and trade deal that would’ve shipped him to the Raptors yet had the sign and trade deal cancelled after further thought. Then not to long after, he shockingly decided to choose the Kings over the Suns as a free agent when leaving Philadelphia.

Summer 2010

This summer’s decision for both Salmons and the Bucks will be handled much like his overall demeanor on the offensive end of the floor: a jab-step left then right and a little hesitation before putting the ball on the floor. Which home floor Salmons decides to put the ball on next season is still up in the air.

Follow Ross Geiger on Twitter: @RossGeiger

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Jerry Stackhouse has cooked up some good bench play since arriving in January

Let’s get one thing clear: NBA players have egos.  If they didn’t, they wouldn’t have made it as far as they have.  From pee-wee league to high school to college, these guys are typically the best players on their teams.  And if they aren’t they best, they usually think they are, because that sort of confidence is what breeds success at higher levels.  Often, what’s driving them to work so hard is their belief that they are the best.  Once they get that taste, they don’t want to lose it.  So the first time a coach comes to them and says, “how about coming off the bench?” you can understand that it often rubs them the wrong way.  Unless it’s done right.

Lucky for the Bucks, Don Nelson did the heavy lifting for them a few years ago with Jerry Stackhouse.

“When I first did it in Dallas, I knew I could still start,” said Stackhouse.  “I had a coach (Nelson) that approached me in the right way.  I think it’s all about, kind of massaging.  You know, everybody’s got an ego in this league and he massaged mine a little bit.”

Accepting the sixth man role may sound like a small thing to do when the other option is earning a reputation as a problem, but it isn’t always as easy as it sounds.  Look no further than Stackhouse’s one time teammate Allen Iverson. Iverson had an opportunity to be the key to the Grizzlies bench this season.  He could have come off the bench as the featured option, got his shots and been a focal point, albeit for fewer minutes than he was accustomed to.  But Iverson balked at being a bench player.  Perhaps he felt it was beneath a man of his many accomplishments or maybe Memphis just didn’t handle him properly, whatever the reason, Allen Iverson in Memphis lasted just three games.

When he and coach Nelson first talked about it, Stackhouse liked the way it sounded.

“He told me he was a sixth man and it was a real important position to him.   He felt that having somebody coming off the bench was almost like a sixth starter.  And I was like (smiling) hmmm…okay.  Sometimes it’s just having a little tact.  It was able to work for us, we had a great team and a great unit coming off the bench.”

The biggest hurdle in the transition from a starter getting big time minutes from the tip to the final horn was the mental one.

“It was a little both (mental and physical) at first, because you know, I always started.  You get to warm up and then you right there and now it’s like you gotta sit down and cool off again.  It was mostly a mental challenge and once you’re able to get over that hurdle then it is what it is.  It was anxious and still, nothing’s changed about that I’m anxious sitting over there waiting for my time.  You just sitting on the edge of your seat, waiting for Scott (Skiles) to yell “STACK!”

Ah, the unit coming off the bench, they’re comrades in sitting.  Bench units often are close units, bonded by the roles they fill.  Stackhouse says, “You have your starters and you have kind of like your bench mob, you know?  They kind of have their own identity and that carries on a life of its own.”

The Jerry Stackhouse I remembered from Washington and Detroit was no more.  Now, Stackhouse has established himself as an important part of the Bucks rotation, constantly moving the ball or making the quick decision to shoot.  His three-point shooting numbers have been better than at any point in his career (40% this season 31% lifetime) and he’s been an important part of the locker room.

“We added Jerry, he’s a very vocal player,” said Coach Skiles. “He’s vocal on the bench and he’s not afraid to get on somebody.”

When the Bucks picked Stackhouse up in January, I couldn’t understand it.  His career seemed to have run its course and his skills didn’t seem to mesh with what the Bucks needed, plus I was of the thought that Jodie Meeks needed more minutes.  And I was wrong on each account.  I think Stack himself put it best.

“You gotta evolve in this game to stick around.”

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-          Thaddeus Young 3-7-2010

“We’re loaded with guys who know how to put the ball in the basket. We all enjoy sharing the ball.”

-          Jason Kidd 3-6-2010

“We’re not good enough to play 1-on-1.”

-          Mike Miller 3-5-2010

“We found spots and moved the ball and had open shots.”

-          Luol Deng 2-26-2010

It’s not easy to quantify unselfishness.  Yes, we know it’s important, and those quotes I’ve selected from players in postgame interviews all have to do with the idea of unselfishness.  Ad nausea, coaches and players will talk about how unselfish they were in wins and how selfish they were in losses.  But, aside from assists, the NBA doesn’t really have any other statistics that express how one player is creating points for his teammates or how a team is working together.  There are certain units on teams that play well together, do a better job rebounding or defending or shooting, but unselfishness itself is one of those difficult to calibrate traits.  One that’s nearly immeasurable.

So naturally I’m going to try and show you how unselfish the Bucks have been in the last ten games.

It’s actually quite amazing, because, to be honest, unselfishness hasn’t exactly been a hallmark of the Milwaukee Bucks over the years.  In what one could refer to as “The Dead Era” of Bucks basketball 2003-2008, the Bucks were a typically competent offensive team that couldn’t defend and as a result, didn’t win much.  As someone who spent many a day watching and cursing the selfish nature of these teams, I can assure you these teams were only competent offensively because of their relative talent on that side of the ball.  What I’m trying to say, is that Mike Redd could fill it up.  Rarely was there a cohesive team effort at either end though.  When looking back at the numbers of these teams, the assist to turnover ratio reflects on the selfish nature.

In 2003-04, the Bucks ranked 4^th in the league in offensive rating.  The Bucks had a team assist to turnover ratio of 1.68-1 and had a shot at knocking off the Nets in the first round, but Tim Thomas didn’t box out Rodney Rodgers on a free throw and Terry Porter mysteriously refused to play Dan Gadzuric (when he was still good, 17 PER) in the playoffs.  But that’s all a story for another day, what’s important is that these Bucks, spearheaded by a pre-injury T.J. Ford, weren’t selfish.

In the following season, Ford got hurt, Mo Williams became entrenched as the Bucks point guard, Redd began his all angles assault on the basket and eventually the Bucks imploded after many years of selfish, losing basketball.  Each year the Bucks assist to turnover ratio dropped, further and further before cresting around 1.45-1.

There was an uptick in the ratio in Scott Skiles first season at the helm, but things really took off halfway through this current season.

Through the first 39 games the Bucks hobbled along offensively, lacking crisp ball movement or much in the way of imagination.  After 39 games, the Bucks assist to turnover ratio was 1.51-1.  But, behind another point guard with a gift for distribution, a team leader who doesn’t require shots by the barrel full and their surprisingly smooth trade deadline acquisition, Milwaukee is playing together.  All parts are firing at the same time in the same direction.  Finally.

With mid-season acquisitions of John Salmons and Jerry Stackhouse, the Bucks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.77-1.  Since the arrival of Salmons, the Bucks have five players averaging double figures in scoring.  Field goal attempts are being dispersed evenly; the team’s game has developed from one that relied on a high three-point percentage and defense to win games, to one that still strangles opponents defensively, but now scores in various, unpredictable ways.

Most importantly, the ball never stops moving now.  Salmons, Brandon Jennings and Stackhouse are always penetrating, dissecting opposing defenses and kicking out passes to awaiting teammates.  The ball movement, the creation of scoring opportunities for more player and general unpredictability of the Bucks offense as it stands is a necessity for a team without a superstar.

Superstars can take liberties with an offense, they can get their own shot whenever they’d like and the fact that they convert with more success than other players, win games and sell tickets.  Maybe Brandon Jennings could be a superstar one day.  For now though, he’s a guard that shoots 37%.  He’ll take occasional liberties with the Bucks offense, but the Bucks path to success, specifically in the playoffs, is not lined with layups and jump shots attempted by Jennings.

No, that path has all sorts of Bucks players’ offensive maneuvers on it.  Coach Skiles has been talking about the team’s unselfish nature all season and he was at it again after the last win Saturday.  “That’s how we win.  Almost all the time we have multiple players in double figures,” said Skiles.  “Usually we have high assists, low turnovers.  For our field goal percentage being what it is as a team, we’re a high assist team, considering our field goal percentage generally.”

For a team that once featured a player who, according to a tale told to Chris Ballard by Damon Jones in Ballard’s The Art of a Beautiful Game, was referred to as “Bombs Over Baghdad” (cough Michael Redd cough), that’s quite a change.  And it’s a change for the better, judging from the words of virtually every player and coach in their words after each and every game.

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From day one, Bucks general manager John Hammond has had goals.

His goals seemed very unrealistic to many around the league, and rightfully so when taking a glance of the Bucks roster at the time Hammond took over the team. The Bucks signed a slew of horrid contracts in the years before he arrived and had little direction, leaving Hammond with a giant mess of puzzle pieces in front of him.

Puzzle pieces that were impossible to solve immediately, yet pieces that are beginning to come together as Hammond’s closes in on the end of his second year in Milwaukee. Undoubtedly Hammond’s tasks have had their highs and lows especially when examining his last two first round draft selections: 2008’s 8^th overall pick Joe Alexander and 2009’s 10^th overall pick Brandon Jennings.

Risks were taken, big trades were made, injuries occurred, and despite all the criticism Hammond remained determined to follow his game plan: to put the best possible team out on the floor each and every night. That game plan has been Hammond’s number one goal as the team progresses each year. Hammond has stressed time and time again, that fans be patient, and to trust the direction he is leading the franchise. A trust that’s beginning to flourish at the Bradley Center each night and it all started with laying a foundation.

In a preseason conference call with season ticket holders earlier this year, Hammond explained his theories on basketball by stating that the two most important parts to build a solid foundation is a point guard and a center. He went on to make a point in saying that if you look at the top teams in the league each and every one of them has those two key ingredients.  Jennings and star center Andrew Bogut are the Milwaukee Bucks foundation. When both of them are on the top of their games, the Bucks are able to compete with any NBA team whether it be at home or away. Add a few young contributors around them in the near future and the Bucks future is scary.

How do the Bucks go about doing that? It’s quite simple, stick to what’s been working. Clearly the Bucks are a smaller market team and since the city of Milwaukee doesn’t strike most of the league’s top superstars as an appealing destination come free agency, it’s important to continue to improve by drafting and trading for players that remain on rookie (or at least good value) deals. Two prime examples being Bucks’ second year forwards Ersan Ilyasova (a 2006 second round pick, fresh off a tour of duty in Europe) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Hammond’s 2008 second round pick).

These two Bucks’ draft picks not only exemplify solid role players that have stepped up to fill main roles on the team but have found major success in doing so. They’ve been able to stabilize the foundation as well effectively demonstrate, “the Scott Skiles mentality”. A mentality that’s defined by this year’s team slogan, “Work Hard, Play Hard”, playing smart and unselfish basketball on both ends of the court. Hard work is contagious and when you’re able draft or acquire young players, they’ll either quickly adjust or learn the hard way by sitting on the bench. John Hammond, along with Skiles, has made that message clear to the team from the jump: accountability is everything especially on the defensive end of the floor.

“Generally if anybody’s guarding someone I stick with them,” Skiles said. “I usually don’t get caught up in the missed shots as long as we’re taking good ones”.

Just as Coach Skiles expects the players to take good shots, the fans should expect the organization to acquire guys that fit the team’s style. The easiest way to go about adding and being able to afford those pieces is of course to draft them. After a successful trade deadline not only was Hammond able to add an immediate impact performer in John Salmons, but he was also able to leverage the Bulls into adding future draft picks.

Currently the Bucks have a first round draft pick to go along with two second round picks in each of the next three drafts. Before you begin to underestimate the Bucks six future second rounds picks don’t forget the Buck’s luck with their second rounders. Since 2000, the Bucks have a selected a handful of notable second round picks a list that includes: Michael Redd, Ilyasova, Ramon Sessions, and Mbah a Moute.

After just two years in the Bucks front office, John Hammond has formed a team that’s able to not only compete for a playoff spot now, but has given Bucks fans a bright future to look forward too. With a healthy Bogut (who is only 25!) and an improving young nucleus of Jennings, Ilyasova, and Mbah a Moute, the possibilities are endless.

Endless possibilities that present endless opportunities, due in large part to the significant amount of money coming off the book in the next two years. At the end of this season, the Bucks have $12,597,957 coming off the payroll before accounting for draft picks, which will allow them to bargain hunt for a few solid pieces to surround their young nucleus. But the summer of 2011 will most certainly be the one to look forward too as the Bucks will have freed up a whopping $33,123,350 off the books. Extensions for both Mbah a Moute, one of the league’s best on ball defenders and Jennings, one of the league’s bright young point guards may be considered at that point. On top of those extensions, they should still have enough leftover cash to go out and bid on what most likely will be a second tier star free agent.

While it may seem far-fetched to imagine an NBA all-star signing with the Bucks, by 2011 a young and developed Bucks core (Jennings, Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Bogut) may say otherwise. As a star free agent on the market there’s not a better feeling than a team offering you a contract feeling you’re the missing piece to their puzzle. For the first time in what seems to be a lifetime, the Milwaukee Bucks have a future worth thinking about.

Call it crazy, continue the doubt, but it’s clear the Milwaukee Bucks under the leadership of John Hammond should continue to improve year in and year out.

Follow Ross Geiger on Twitter: @RossGeiger

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