Plugging in Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson in before Monta Ellis seemed so easy. Maggette could collect opponent fouls and single-handedly improve the Milwaukee Bucks free throw numbers. Jackson would move the ball, hit some threes and take it to the rack. Most importantly, he’d be that tough guy leader the team needed in the locker room.
Things didn’t work out in either occasion.
But that doesn’t mean we should give up on Ellis right away. Maybe he isn’t what makes the Bucks a title team, and maybe that drives me crazy, but he could possibly make them a better basketball team. So that’s something.
Ellis was primarily used as a pick and roll ball handler in Golden State. This wasn’t his biggest strength. He’s never had much of a feel for the point guard position. Last season I recall coach Scott Skiles referring to him strictly as a two guard. Fortunately for Ellis, in Milwaukee, two guards aren’t required to run the pick and roll quite as much.
I’m sure this will shift some to cater to Ellis’ needs, but he’ll likely get way more opportunities to spot-up, catch off cuts and out of the post. If Ellis has the opportunity to spot-up more, we could see his 3-point shooting percentage improve. He’s shooting just 21% on 3-pointers as the pick and roll ball handler but 46% on threes in spot-up situations.
I’m serious about the post stuff too. While he doesn’t have the size of Shaun Livingston, Ellis averages 1.07 points per possession this season in post up situations this season, good for fourth in the league. His strength, leaping ability and athleticism has done wonders for him against opposing guards. As they have with Livingston, Milwaukee will likely look to exploit that. (Thanks to @HPBasketball for making this video last night.)
Bogut and Jackson are gone and in is the same guy the Bucks always bring in. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
I’m not negative just for the sake of being negative. If you read my last post, if you follow me on Twitter or are a friend of mine on Facebook, you probably think I think this is the worst trade of all time.
I don’t feel that way.
I get the deal and I see some real obvious benefits. Monta Ellis is the most athletic two guard the Bucks have had since Desmond Mason (if you’re unfamiliar, here’s a good write up on Ellis from Drew Olson). I’d say he’s pretty much the first athletic two guard the Bucks have had since then. I’ve been dying to see Milwaukee get an athletic two guard. He can get to the hoop and finish with real authority. Ellis has 16 dunks this year. Shaun Livingston has 17 and the next highest Buck guard is Carlos Delfino with … four. This has been a problem for years. Ellis solves it.
Getting rid of Stephen Jackson? Thank goodness.
And clearly it was time for Bogut to go. Gery Woelfel Tweeted that his relationship with Scott Skiles was beyond repair. His injuries held the franchise hostage over the past season or two as well, though it’s unfair to blame him for that.
But how are things any different now than they have been before? Sure, the Bucks have two guards that can score some points, but they had that with Michael Redd and Mo Williams. Turns out that didn’t win them many games. No, they didn’t have Luc Mbah a Moute to play defense then, but Luc hasn’t exactly been a cure all this season on that end. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in the league in defensive rating right now.
Maybe Kwame Brown and Ekpe Udoh can help shore things up in the middle defensively (he’s actually a good defender) and allow Drew Gooden to slide back to the four, but like I always say, when you’re relying on Kwame Brown, Ekpe Udoh and Drew Gooden … who cares? It looks a lot like we’re watching a franchise spin in a circle. I know they won’t be as bad as those Redd and Mo teams, the supporting cast is much better now, but this still isn’t a big time team.
I’m at the Sloan Sports Analytics conference in Boston today. I just attended a panel led by two guys who wrote a research paper titled: Effort vs. Concentration: The Asymmetric Impact of Pressure on NBA Performance.
There were a lot of numbers involved with this. They established what tasks constituted effort and what tasks constituted concentration based tasks. They wanted tasks that produced roughly the same result, but could be calculated differently. The authors decided that they would compare offensive rebounds as the effort task and free throws as the concentration task. Previous research had determined that an offensive rebound was worth roughly one point, the same as a free throw.
Their findings showed, at home, players performed better in late game situations that were related to increased effort and worse in late game situations that required increased concentration.
The offensive rebounding rate of the home team increases monotonically with the importance of the point, but the away team’s rate is flat, indicating the result is due to the supportive crowd and not other confounding factors. In contrast to free throws, for which the home team shows a decline in performance, pressure amplifies home-court advantage in the heat of the moment
I couldn’t help but think of Ersan Ilyasova.
Over his past two home games, Ilyasova has five offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter, including a game winning tip in against the Wizards that came with two seconds left. On the season, Ilyasova is averaging 1.2 offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter per game. His next highest quarter is .9.
Just thought it was worth mentioning considering Ilyasova’s recent uptick and the upcoming trade deadline. Perhaps a team struggling to finish off games and in need of some offensive rebounding prowess might be interested?
Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com. Follow him on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.
Tonight, the Milwaukee Bucks are back in action against the Washington Wizards. It will likely be a thrilling match between a team that refuses to rebuild and a team that can only rebuild. It’s too bad the NBA doesn’t engage in the hijinx like the average television sitcom from the 1990s.
Under those circumstances, we might see a coach swap that would leave Scott Skiles coaching the last team he ever wants to coach. In a sitcom, this would help him learn something about himself. In real life, he would end up fighting JaVale McGee’s mother to the death.
But I digress. Here are my wishes for the second half:
There has never been a better time to trade Ersan Ilyasova.
*ducks*
Milwaukee reportedly was peddling the Turkish forward before the draft last season, but couldn’t find an offer to their liking. What exactly would have been to their liking is up for debate, but a first round pick was probably the minimum they would have accepted for the young power forward with an uncertain future, but some upside remaining.
Now? A first round pick seems more than reasonable for one of the league’s hottest players. John Hollinger lists Ilyasova as a member of his “All-Lin Team” compiled of players who would be talked about more right now were Jeremy Lin not setting fire to everything we thought we knew.
He tipped, tapped and touched his way to 25 rebounds against the Nets and tossed in 29 points on a combination of threes, mid-range shots and put backs at the rim. Ersan may not be a star, but, recently blessed with more consistent minutes than he’s ever had before, he’s proving that he’s a legit rebounding force in the league when he’s given the time to be one.
And what potential playoff team couldn’t use a guy like that?
