Preview Game the Seventh: What more can we say?
Sunday, May 2nd, 2010Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-3
at
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 3-3
Date: 5/2/2010
Time: 12:00 PM (CST)
TV: ABC & FS Wisconsin
Few expected things to get as far as they have (don’t say no one has, because Chris Sheridan picked the Hawks in seven), but here we are. Game seven Sunday on ABC. For a team and a fan base so sensitive to their national perception and a perceived constant lack of respect, it’s funny now that the most important game of the season, and possibly final game, will be broadcast nationally. The stage officially can not get any bigger for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Now they just need to make some shots. Or find a way to get to the basket. Either way, it’s just important that the Bucks bury their despicable game six performance and recall the good times that were games three through five.
In those games the Bucks often had a sense of purpose on offense and a hot hand. When they didn’t, they got to the hoop and lived at the free throw line. For a team that’s struggled as badly as the Bucks have when it comes to getting to the line, the Bucks have led this series in free throw throw attempts most of the way. After a poor performance Friday, the Bucks now trail Atlanta by just four. The same Atlanta team that attempted 239 more free throws than them in the regular season.
So it’s not like the Bucks have been hopeless offensively this series. There is reason for optimism heading into game seven. Just as there is reason for pessimism.
Namely, the Hawks collective game seven experience, overall explosiveness and that thing known as home court advantage. But the Bucks have shined with their backs against the wall this season. Their strongest stretch of the year came not too long after heading out on a west coast trip in which they were destroyed in three of the five losses. This is a team that’s responded to difficult circumstances before and could do it again.
Or they could wilt under the lights brighter than they have seen all year.
With this cast of characters, going through this whole thing for the first time together, it’s difficult to tell what will happen on any given night. Don’t get me wrong, I know they’ll compete hard, but in the playoffs that’s not enough to get it done. There have been few constants in this post season for the Bucks and it’s difficult to get very far having to rely on a different face stepping up every night.
But that’s where Milwaukee stands. Whether they’ll surprise everyone and pull off the unlikely first round upset relies heavily on a return to form from their best two players this series, the mid-season trade acquisition John Salmons and fresh faced rookie Brandon Jennings finding someone else down the bench that can give them a big game.
As usual, not many expect that to happen.
Game the Sixth: Opportunity Knocks
Friday, April 30th, 2010Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-2
vs.
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-3
Date: 4/30/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN & FS Wisconsin
The Breakdown
By game six in a seven game playoff series, there are no secrets any more. Both teams know what their opponent wants to do, both teams know what their own teams must do to win. By game six, it simply comes down to which team’s will is stronger, who’s better at imposing their game on the opponent. Typically it’s a no-brainer in my mind that this is where talent comes out on top.
But it’s not that simple anymore.
Milwaukee has so blurred the lines of talent in this series, that I’m not sure we can truly measure the more talented team. The common perception thus far has been this series has been more Atlanta blowing it than Milwaukee taking it. I’m not buying that. Milwaukee isn’t a pretty team and they don’t have great offensive statistics, but what happened to that old axiom that defense and rebounding win when it slows down in the playoffs. Have we all forgotten that?
This series has been a testament to the difficulty we have in measuring defensive abilities and hustle. When Milwaukee holds Atlanta to at the rim shooting percentages of 48%, 41% and 58%, all under their season average of 63%, it still is spun more as Hawks missing layups rather than Milwaukee challenging them. Something changed after the first two games in this series and Milwaukee imposed their will on Atlanta.
So while we’ve seen all kinds of statistical advances over the last few years, we’re still not quite there yet. We can’t accurately measure each aspect of every game. Sometimes, you just have to see it to believe it. If you’ve watched the last three games of this series, I have a hard time you can honestly believe the Hawks are the superior team. 82 games worth of regular season data may indicate otherwise, but the playoffs are a different animal.
An animal the Bucks could tame this evening. (more…)
Game the Fifth: Can the Bucks steal one on the road?
Wednesday, April 28th, 2010Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 2-2
at
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-2
Date: 4/28/2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: TNT/FS Wisconsin
“Most teams, the role players play better at home.”
- Jerry Stackhouse after game four
So Stack already has me a little concerned for game five. After notably strong efforts out of Dan Gadzuric, Carlos Delfino and Kurt Thomas in their game tying win on Monday, Milwaukee will need to once again get more out of their role players than Atlanta. That’s true of any team, everyone likes to get more out of their secondary players, but it’s especially true for a team like Milwaukee that’s featuring their role players much more heavily. One could argue that Atlanta has only three or four role players they’ll trot out there (Jamal Crawford, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams and if you want to label him as a role player, Al Horford), but Milwaukee has two main men in Brandon Jennings and John Salmons, flanked by role players. What’s nice about this is that it’s difficult to project which one will step up. What’s bad about this, is that it’s not always the case that anyone steps up. It’s tough to expect Carlos Delfino to hit another six threes, but if he can hit half of his threes and Ersan Ilyasova has another strong game, Milwaukee may not need much more than strong performances again out of Jennings and Salmons to pull this one out. (more…)
Game Four Preview: We could have a real series here
Monday, April 26th, 2010Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 1-2
vs.
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-1
Date: 4/26/2010
Time: 7:30
TV: NBA TV & FS Wisconsin
Keep Smith Contained
Milwaukee and Josh Smith combined to do a great job stopping Josh Smith in game two. As much as I’d love to slather all the credit on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, I’ll admit that it seems like Smith just didn’t have the same lift he’d had in the previous few games. Specifically on the offensive glass and in transition, he wasn’t the same. Smith had five dunks and layups in transition and on the offensive glass in game two. Saturday at the Bradley Center, Smith was 1-6 combined in transition and after offensive rebounds. Some of this was good help defense after he grabbed boards, some of this was luck. For the game, Smith was 2-10 at the rim. Don’t expect another performance like that. Milwaukee will just have to make the Hawks top athlete work hard for everything he gets and keep a body on him at all times. Making his life difficult should be the Bucks focus once again.
10 3’s Again?
Okay, so Milwaukee had enough breathing room, they didn’t need all 10 of the threes they hit Saturday. But three point shooting will still more or less define the Bucks for however long this season goes on. Saturday didn’t appear to be much of an aberration either. No Bucks player hit more than three from distance and no one shot over 50% on their three point shots. If anything, the Bucks could expect Carlos Delfino to perform slightly better than he has been lately. Milwaukee’s game is all about moving the ball and finding open shooters and their seven assists on 10 three point shots indicates they did that very well on Saturday. Maybe Milwaukee won’t hit another 10 threes Monday night, but there is some reason to expect another strong performance again on Monday night and not the disastrous ones that were games one and two.
More (or just as much) Gadz
I vividly recall thinking Terry Porter’s biggest mistake in 2004 was not giving Dan Gadzuric virtually any burn in the Bucks first round series against a much larger Detroit Pistons squad. This was back when Gadz was still young and before he got “The Contract”, so everyone loved him and he seemed to have a bright future. I called for him over and over, but he logged just nine minutes in the Bucks 4-1 losing effort of a series. Predictably, as I look back, I see that in those nine minutes his PER was 24.6 and he had the teams’ second best defensive rating.
Now, all these years later, I’m still finding myself wanting Gadz on the court in the post season. Sure, it has a lot to do with Andrew Bogut being out and Kurt Thomas being most productive in limited minutes, but it’s strange how some things stay the same. Gadzuric was a terror in his 17 minutes Saturday night, racking up five fouls and 10 rebounds in classic Gazuric style. He had an absurd 33.2 rebound rate, meaning he grabbed roughly a third of available rebounds while he was on the court. If he plays to his strength, rebounding and running around like a mad man, he can impact this series in a positive way.
Brandon Jennings Early and Often
Jennings started things out with a bang on Saturday, then had plenty of time to rest in the fourth quarter. I can’t see Atlanta coming out with the same lackluster effort that allowed Milwaukee free reign on Saturday, so he’ll likely log more minutes and more meaningful ones Monday night. When Jennings gets the Bucks going they seem to play loads better. If he’s feeling it on Monday night, he should absolutely not be shy about getting his shot off whenever he pleases. Sometimes when he’s feeling it, it seems like he backs off to get other guys involved. I guess that’s the instincts of a guy who’s a classic point guard, but sometimes Milwaukee needs him to take over like he did in game one. I have a lot more confidence in Jennings than I do in a lot of other players on this team
Keep Dodging The Crawford Bullet
The likely sixth man of the year, Jamal Crawford has made a season of blowing up off the bench for the Hawks. This series he’s 11-34 and has served as more of a thorn in the side of Atlanta than Milwaukee. But, this is Jamal Crawford we’re talking about. He’s liable to go off for 30 at any given time. In game one he did some typical Jamal Crawford stuff, pulling up for crazy threes and drilling them to take the air out of the Bucks sails when a potential comeback was on the horizon. Milwaukee will need to keep doing whatever they’ve been doing against Crawford and hope his tough shots keep out of the net.
Game 3 Preview: Well, if it’s going to happen…
Saturday, April 24th, 2010It might as well be tonight, right?
Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 0-2
vs.
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-0
Date: 4/24/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN and FS Wisconsin
How in the world can the Bucks win this?
Take Advantage of Home Court
The Bucks haven’t played a meaningful home game this late in the year in nearly nine years. The Bradley Center crowd is going to want reasons to explode. Squad Six wants to get wild. Milwaukee trailed badly after the first quarter of game one and kind of bad in game two, another slow start could get the crowd out of it early and keep Atlanta’s confidence up. A fast start from Milwaukee could insert doubt into the minds of the Hawks. Atlanta was just 19-22 on the road this season.
It Ain’t Ova Till Ilyasova
Ersan Ilyasova is having a strong series and the cries to move him into the starting lineup have been getting louder. He’s averaging a double double at 12.5/10 and has a PER of 23.8. Even if he doesn’t start this one, he’ll certainly need to be on the court more than the 23.5 minutes he’s averaged so far this series. I know the Bucks value Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s defense very highly, but if he loses some minutes to make way for more Ersan, I don’t think anyone would have too much of a problem with that. It’s not like Ilyasova is a terrible defender. He gives great effort and rebounds the ball very well on the defensive end. He can’t possibly hurt the Bucks any more than they’ve been getting hurt.
The Bucks have outscored the Hawks by two points in the 48 minutes that Ersan Ilyasova has been on the court in this series. In the 48 minutes that Ilyasova has been on the bench in this series, the Bucks have been outscored by 22 points.
Time For ThomFino
Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino seem to be having some sort of secret competition for who can play worse this series. After both playing significant roles all season for Milwaukee, their play has fallen off a cliff. Perhaps age has caught up to Thomas and injuries to Delfino. Or maybe they both have just slumped at the wrong time. Whatever the case may be, Milwaukee needs to figure out if they can be fixed or if they need to be sat. Milwaukee simply can’t trot these two out for another 30 minutes each and get returns like they have the first two games
Thomas: 4.8 PER, 22.2 TS%, 7 PFs/4 PTS
Delfino: 5.1 PER, 35.5 TS%, 0-5 3FG
| Hawks | PPG | FG PCT. | RPG | BPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford | 17.5 | 55.6 | 8.5 | 4.0 |
| Josh Smith | 16.5 | 71.4 | 12.0 | 3.0 |
| Marvin Williams | 11.5 | 53.3 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Bucks | ||||
| LRMAM | 8.0 | 61.5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Delfino | 6.0 | 31.3 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Thomas | 2.0 | 22.2 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
Find A Way To Stop What’s Been Happening
The Hawks have been running like bulls in the first quarters of the last two games, turning Milwaukee turnovers into easy points. Their length on the perimeter has had Bucks guards dribbling away from the hoop and launching long passes all over the court. Predictably, the Hawks have feasted on these passes, turning them into easy scoring opportunities. Milwaukee needs to find a way to counter the Hawks aggressiveness, perhaps with a lineup free of LRMAM, to give Milwaukee five scoring threats at once. If Milwaukee can limit these instances and, as I’m been stressing, knock down a few more threes, a win remains possible.
