Without some sort of portal into his head ala Being John Malkovich, we’ll never know truly how much one thing or the next impacts the performance of Ersan Ilyasova. It’s easy to speculate on his mental state, on his confidence. We can’t say for sure though.

But it’s easy to see how the performance of Ilyasova impacts the Bucks. Last season in wins, Ilyasova shot 49.5% and averaged 10.7 points per game. In Bucks losses last season, Ilyasova shot 39.8% and averaged 8.7 points per game. In our limited sample size of data this season, we’ve once again seen his performance mean a great deal. In Milwaukee’s loss to the Bobcats, Ilyasova scored just two points (though he did grab nine rebounds). When the Bucks rolled over the Wizards, Ilyasova played a key role, dropping 16 points on just eight shots.

Obviously, this isn’t rocket science. He’s a starter for the Bucks. He regularly plays lots of minutes. If he’s playing well, it’s going to make a big difference. But what’s unusual about Ilyasova is how much of a variable he can be. We know that even when Andrew Bogut shoots under 40%, he’ll be playing all-NBA type defense. We know Brandon Jennings might shoot a low percentage, but he applies pressure on the opposing point guards and usually is able to give the other team some problems with his driving.

But Ilyasova’s play, especially his play early, gives hints about his state each game.

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• Among players who play at least 15 minutes per game, Andrew Bogut is tied for the 8th finest shooter in the NBA this season from 16-23 feet.

• Andrew Bogut did not make a shot from 16-23 feet last season.

• Bogut is 4-5 this season from 16-23 feet.

I know. Your mind was just blown and then brought back to reality.

So we’re working with both something relevant and irrelevant here. It’s relevant that Bogut’s hitting shots outside of 15-feet in that he failed to accomplish that last season. At the same time, his percentage is irrelevant, as he’s taken just five shots from that range.

But we’ve seen Bogut make these shots before. In both 2007 and 2008 Bogut made 20 shots from 16-23 feet. In two years at the University of Utah Bogut even stepped out and knocked down 13 threes. In the 2006 FIBA World Championships, Bogut knocked down a couple more.

This isn’t new. There was a reason fans clamored for a Bogut with expanded range every season before the elbow injury.

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UPDATE: Drew Gooden has been suspended for tonight’s game due to Monday’s flagrant foul, according to Sam Amick.  This could result in more minutes for either Jon Leuer or some minutes for Jon Brockman.

After dropping their opener Monday night, the Milwaukee Bucks are back at it 7:30 PM Tuesday evening with their 44th home opener against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves took both pre-season games from the Bucks this year, one decisively and one thanks to a late run against the end of Milwaukee’s bench.

Both teams sit 0-1, the Bucks after a frustrating loss to the Charlotte Bobcats and the Wolves after an encouraging defeat at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both the Bucks and Wolves had one point leads at some point in the fourth quarter. The Wolves can chalk up letting theirs slip away as meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Hell, they might have two franchise guys and those guys are learning to win together.

Meanwhile the promise of a new season has already given way to pessimism among many in Milwaukee. Logically, it was a grand reach to assume this Bucks team would be something special, something beyond slightly above average. But the summer has a way of building up hopes that players are suddenly going to transform into something they haven’t been. Monday served as a realization that this city’s two stars probably aren’t really stars at all. Still. And if they aren’t, this team becomes dramatically less interesting.

It’s amazing how different 0-1 can look.

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In their first preaseason match-up, the Timberwolves steam-rolled the Bucks as they went 15-24 from three. Minus the awesome shooting by the Wolves, it was still a subpar defensive outing for the normally stout Bucks. JJ Barea and Derrick Williams bullied their weaker counterparts around.

Ricky Rubio made some slick passes (best six point, seven assist game ever). Mike Dunleavy and Jon Leuer were caught not paying attention on a few cuts. Even Andrew Bogut looked out of sorts. This will not stand. Or will it? Scott Skiles has a history of his team’s defensive efficiency dropping after a few years under his command. To consider that a real problem now would be reading too much into a preseason game, but it’s just something to watch for the rest of the season.

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Luke Ridnour

A really important thing to look at in this game is Jennings’s role in the offense. A point of emphasis at media day was getting Jennings into more catch-and-shoot situations. Good call, because he’s definitely not a good shooter off the dribble. However, how much off-ball movement does this imply? Jennings is still the team’s best distributor and a more important goal should be to get Jennings’s assist rate of 6.6 last year closer to his rookie season assist rate of eight.

With Barea and Rubio out, Luke Ridnour should get plenty of playing time in his old stomping grounds. Ridnour’s scoring ability has sort of become revered in Milwaukee, but Jennings defense and Ridnour’s lack of defense make this an easy matchup call.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…

Maybe?

Maybe the Milwaukee Bucks can pull out a big win against the Indiana Pacers on Friday night at Conseco Fieldhouse.  Maybe they can keep their season alive for at least one more night.  They’ve done far more improbable things against the Pacers this season already.  It won’t be easy though.  Not against a motivated team looking to earn playoff seasoning to better the taste of their future.  Does that sound familiar?

These Pacers are not unlike the Bucks of a year ago (read this article and tell me you don’t think of the Bucks circa last season, pluses and minuses), but possibly with an even brighter future than the one Milwaukee dreamed of before Andrew Bogut’s arm injury dumped a bucket of cold water on the franchise.

There are no Pacers over 30 who figure to play a significant role in their immediate future.  Though Danny Granger has seen his stock and shooting percentage dip a bit over the past two years, he still gives them, at the very least, the idea of a guy who can close out games.  The Pacers have a promising young prospect in Paul George and $30 million in what amounts to dead weight coming off their roster this off-season.

Imagine if Milwaukee had a season slightly better than the one it has had this season, but without the trade for Corey Maggette, the signing of John Salmons or the signing of Drew Gooden. And imagine the Bucks failed to make the playoffs last season and wants that first taste as bad now as they did then.  That’s kind of the Pacers right now.  Last season’s Bucks youth and optimism, minus last off-season’s acquisitions, plus what could have been this coming off-season’s clearing of bad salaries.

Does that sound like a team this Bucks squad is going to knock off?

Not really.  But that’s the other thing about the Pacers.  Given that they aren’t as strong as last season’s Bucks, they aren’t exactly a sure bet to win the games they are supposed to win.  They haven’t used the second half to notify the rest of the league that they are a young, up and coming squad to be watched.  Last month, the month during which the Pacers could have locked down their final playoff spot, they lost to Minnestoa, Toronto, Detroit and Sacramento.  They haven’t exactly swept the leg.

But Friday is Indiana’s big chance to make a statement about the final playoff spot.  It’s their opportunity to finish off Milwaukee once and for all and make this thing a two team race.

All the while leaving Bucks fans to wonder where their team could be heading this off-season with a lottery pick and two significant expiring contracts.

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