Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-3

Date: 4/30/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN & FS Wisconsin

The Breakdown

By game six in a seven game playoff series, there are no secrets any more. Both teams know what their opponent wants to do, both teams know what their own teams must do to win. By game six, it simply comes down to which team’s will is stronger, who’s better at imposing their game on the opponent. Typically it’s a no-brainer in my mind that this is where talent comes out on top.

But it’s not that simple anymore.

Milwaukee has so blurred the lines of talent in this series, that I’m not sure we can truly measure the more talented team. The common perception thus far has been this series has been more Atlanta blowing it than Milwaukee taking it. I’m not buying that. Milwaukee isn’t a pretty team and they don’t have great offensive statistics, but what happened to that old axiom that defense and rebounding win when it slows down in the playoffs. Have we all forgotten that?

This series has been a testament to the difficulty we have in measuring defensive abilities and hustle. When Milwaukee holds Atlanta to at the rim shooting percentages of 48%, 41% and 58%, all under their season average of 63%, it still is spun more as Hawks missing layups rather than Milwaukee challenging them. Something changed after the first two games in this series and Milwaukee imposed their will on Atlanta.

So while we’ve seen all kinds of statistical advances over the last few years, we’re still not quite there yet. We can’t accurately measure each aspect of every game. Sometimes, you just have to see it to believe it. If you’ve watched the last three games of this series, I have a hard time you can honestly believe the Hawks are the superior team. 82 games worth of regular season data may indicate otherwise, but the playoffs are a different animal.

An animal the Bucks could tame this evening. Read more…

Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?

Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night.  Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net.  Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots.  One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed.  You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says,  “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”

A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though.  Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.

Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four.  The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.

Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.

After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?

Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.

When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one. Read more…

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 2-2

at

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-2

Date: 4/28/2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: TNT/FS Wisconsin

“Most teams, the role players play better at home.”
-  Jerry Stackhouse after game four

So Stack already has me a little concerned for game five. After notably strong efforts out of Dan Gadzuric, Carlos Delfino and Kurt Thomas in their game tying win on Monday, Milwaukee will need to once again get more out of their role players than Atlanta. That’s true of any team, everyone likes to get more out of their secondary players, but it’s especially true for a team like Milwaukee that’s featuring their role players much more heavily. One could argue that Atlanta has only three or four role players they’ll trot out there (Jamal Crawford, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams and if you want to label him as a role player, Al Horford), but Milwaukee has two main men in Brandon Jennings and John Salmons, flanked by role players. What’s nice about this is that it’s difficult to project which one will step up. What’s bad about this, is that it’s not always the case that anyone steps up. It’s tough to expect Carlos Delfino to hit another six threes, but if he can hit half of his threes and Ersan Ilyasova has another strong game, Milwaukee may not need much more than strong performances again out of Jennings and Salmons to pull this one out. Read more…

Check out the reaction by the Bucks bench. Priceless.

If it hadn’t been done before, and it’s probably foolish that it wasn’t, the word “can’t” was officially removed from the dictionary on the Milwaukee Bucks 2009-10 season. It’s uses were once prevalent. Milwaukee can’t get to the line. They can’t score inside without Andrew Bogut. Brandon Jennings can’t finish. The Bucks can’t hang with the Hawks in the playoffs.

Can’t, can’t, can’t, can’t. These Bucks seem to know not of this word. Every time the rest of the world decides they aren’t capable of doing something, they go on and do it anyway. Milwaukee shot 32 free throws Monday night. They outscored the Hawks in the paint 44-26. Jennings was 9-16 from the field and didn’t hit a 3-pointer.

And the Bucks tied up their first round series with the Hawks at two.

In front of a raucous crowd with only a few pockets of empty seats in a sold out Bradley Center, the Bucks squeezed every last drop of effort out of 10 different players and played as close to flawless a game as they have without Bogut. The Bucks, a team once known for their selfishness on the court and corrosive chemistry off of it, relied on the formula that’s been working for them all season: above average ball movement and a sense of togetherness I haven’t seen in Milwaukee.

Asked about this being one of those games the old Bucks used to lose, Jerry Stackhouse had a very appropriate answer after the game:

I don’t know any of them old Bucks teams.

Can’t? Not these Bucks, not yet. Read more…

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 1-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-1

Date: 4/26/2010
Time: 7:30
TV: NBA TV & FS Wisconsin

Keep Smith Contained

Milwaukee and Josh Smith combined to do a great job stopping Josh Smith in game two. As much as I’d love to slather all the credit on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, I’ll admit that it seems like Smith just didn’t have the same lift he’d had in the previous few games. Specifically on the offensive glass and in transition, he wasn’t the same. Smith had five dunks and layups in transition and on the offensive glass in game two. Saturday at the Bradley Center, Smith was 1-6 combined in transition and after offensive rebounds. Some of this was good help defense after he grabbed boards, some of this was luck. For the game, Smith was 2-10 at the rim. Don’t expect another performance like that. Milwaukee will just have to make the Hawks top athlete work hard for everything he gets and keep a body on him at all times. Making his life difficult should be the Bucks focus once again.

10 3’s Again?

Okay, so Milwaukee had enough breathing room, they didn’t need all 10 of the threes they hit Saturday. But three point shooting will still more or less define the Bucks for however long this season goes on. Saturday didn’t appear to be much of an aberration either. No Bucks player hit more than three from distance and no one shot over 50% on their three point shots. If anything, the Bucks could expect Carlos Delfino to perform slightly better than he has been lately. Milwaukee’s game is all about moving the ball and finding open shooters and their seven assists on 10 three point shots indicates they did that very well on Saturday. Maybe Milwaukee won’t hit another 10 threes Monday night, but there is some reason to expect another strong performance again on Monday night and not the disastrous ones that were games one and two.

More (or just as much) Gadz

I vividly recall thinking Terry Porter’s biggest mistake in 2004 was not giving Dan Gadzuric virtually any burn in the Bucks first round series against a much larger Detroit Pistons squad. This was back when Gadz was still young and before he got “The Contract”, so everyone loved him and he seemed to have a bright future. I called for him over and over, but he logged just nine minutes in the Bucks 4-1 losing effort of a series. Predictably, as I look back, I see that in those nine minutes his PER was 24.6 and he had the teams’ second best defensive rating.

Now, all these years later, I’m still finding myself wanting Gadz on the court in the post season. Sure, it has a lot to do with Andrew Bogut being out and Kurt Thomas being most productive in limited minutes, but it’s strange how some things stay the same. Gadzuric was a terror in his 17 minutes Saturday night, racking up five fouls and 10 rebounds in classic Gazuric style. He had an absurd 33.2 rebound rate, meaning he grabbed roughly a third of available rebounds while he was on the court. If he plays to his strength, rebounding and running around like a mad man, he can impact this series in a positive way.

Brandon Jennings Early and Often

Jennings started things out with a bang on Saturday, then had plenty of time to rest in the fourth quarter. I can’t see Atlanta coming out with the same lackluster effort that allowed Milwaukee free reign on Saturday, so he’ll likely log more minutes and more meaningful ones Monday night. When Jennings gets the Bucks going they seem to play loads better. If he’s feeling it on Monday night, he should absolutely not be shy about getting his shot off whenever he pleases. Sometimes when he’s feeling it, it seems like he backs off to get other guys involved. I guess that’s the instincts of a guy who’s a classic point guard, but sometimes Milwaukee needs him to take over like he did in game one. I have a lot more confidence in Jennings than I do in a lot of other players on this team

Keep Dodging The Crawford Bullet

The likely sixth man of the year, Jamal Crawford has made a season of blowing up off the bench for the Hawks. This series he’s 11-34 and has served as more of a thorn in the side of Atlanta than Milwaukee. But, this is Jamal Crawford we’re talking about. He’s liable to go off for 30 at any given time. In game one he did some typical Jamal Crawford stuff, pulling up for crazy threes and drilling them to take the air out of the Bucks sails when a potential comeback was on the horizon. Milwaukee will need to keep doing whatever they’ve been doing against Crawford and hope his tough shots keep out of the net.