The End of the Beginning Is Still an End
Sunday, May 2nd, 2010
Jennings brought back memories from the home opener when he busted this one out.
When it was all said and done too many factors were working against the Bucks. Atlanta’s superiority was evident: length, size, athleticism, shooting, you name it Atlanta has it over Milwaukee. The Bucks pulled off a few victories that not many saw coming, but when focused, Atlanta was just too much for the Bucks to handle.
To have gotten as far as they have, for the Milwaukee Bucks right now it would be easy to be satisfied with what they’ve accomplished. Without their best player, Milwaukee pushed the third best team in the Eastern Conference to a Game 7. But there seemed very little satisfaction in just getting there throughout Milwaukee’s last stance in their first round series with the Atlanta Hawks. Not from Brandon Jennings at least, who forced ABC to make use of their five second delay as he cursed at himself in disgust heading off the court at halftime after missing the second of two free throws.
Maybe they still shot too many jumpers, but when it came down to it, Milwaukee just didn’t have the players to exploit the Hawks constant switching off screens. Not enough Bucks are good enough off the dribble to take advantage of mismatches on the perimeter. That’s how the Bucks came to rely on a 20-year-old rookie in Game 7 of an NBA Playoffs series. And make no mistake, the Bucks rode Jennings in this one.
After being one of the aforementioned Bucks that settled too often for jump shots in Game Six, Jennings was in attack mode against the Hawks Sunday afternoon. Of his 18 shots, Jennings took 10 of them inside the paint and at the rim. Someone had to expose the Hawks on their pick and roll defense and Jennings wanted to step up to be the guy that did that Sunday. That’s what leaders do.
But Jennings can’t guard Al Horford. And apparently neither can Primoz Brezec. Or Dan Gadzuric. Or Ersan Ilyasova. Or even Kurt Thomas, at least not when Horford really has it going and is attacking the glass. Horford was too much inside all game and all series, save for a game or two. Horford led the charge with 15 rebounds as the Hawks dominated on the glass 55-34.
It won’t always be like this though. The Bucks will have Andrew Bogut back next season. It’s possible he could be joined by a brand new burly power forward with some tools. A slasher could show up ready to get to the bucket with John Salmons if he hangs around and the Bucks could be better than ever.
And look at that, I’m talking about next season for the first time. On May 2nd. That sure feels a lot better than doing it in March or April as I’ve done the majority of this last decade. So I’m as disappointed as the next person today, but it feels good to have something to build on. (more…)
Progress is supposed to be a slow process: Bucks 91 – Hawks 87
Thursday, April 29th, 2010Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?
Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night. Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net. Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots. One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed. You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says, “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”
A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though. Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.
Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four. The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.
Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.
After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?
Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.
When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one. (more…)
Emailing with the Enemy
Thursday, April 15th, 2010Hawk watching has not been a big part of my life this basketball season. Obviously my hands are a little bit tied with the Bucks playing as frequently as they are. Fortunately, the TrueHoop Network has got me covered. The Atlanta Hawks have a terrific blogger by the name of Bret Lagree. He and I took the time to exchange emails about the upcoming Bucks-Hawks series. I took a stab at some Hawks things, Bret gave his take on the Bucks and will filled in the gaps where the other wasn’t sure It’s worth a look. Part one is here at Bucksketball and be sure to check out part two at Hoopinion.
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Bucksketball: So what’s with Joe Johnson covering Brandon Jennings? Does he frequently guard point guards? I was discussing this with someone at the last game, and with Chris Paul being out this season, I’d argue Johnson is probably the second best defensive point guard the Bucks have had the displeasure of seeing this season.
And why is Al Horford forcing Milwaukee point guards to shoot jump shots? He doesn’t get much national recognition, but he seems like a very good defender.
Hoopinion: Joe’s guarded point guards a lot. Not because he’s especially effective (though he does the best he can to use his length to make up for a relative lack of foot speed) but because the Hawks have used Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson and Mike Bibby at point guard alongside him. Backcourt defense is a big issue with this team, to the point that people were reasonably concerned that letting Flip Murray walk would hurt the defense. It hasn’t really (they’re still mediocre defensively), but that’s more to do with Josh Smith being healthy than with Bibby or Jamal Crawford even approaching competence.
In all seriousness, Horford might be the Hawks’ best perimeter defender. He moves his feet really well (this is why he commits so few fouls both in space and in the post) and understands that it’s far better to give up the 18-footer to guards than let them get past him. The downside to this (and the switching defense the Hawks use almost exclusively) is that, while Horford’s doing an admirably job on the perimeter against smaller, quicker players, Bibby or Crawford is forced to try and box out a bigger player once the shot goes up. The inversion of the defenders is the primary reason the Hawks are 24th in the league in DR%.
I think the Hawks would be fine with letting Bibby guard Jennings given Brandon’s struggles inside the arc this year and given the presence of Smith and Horford to complicate matters for him.
Let’s make that my first question for you. What’s up with Jennings making such a low percentage of his two-point attempts? 42.8% at the rim and 41.3% inside 10 feet (per Hoopdata and before last night’s game). Poor shot selection or poor finishing or both?
Bucksketball: Johnson’s length has certainly been an issue for Jennings, who, as you’ve noted, has enough issues of his own.
Speaking as someone who’s seen nearly every game Jennings has played in this season, the best way I can explain his struggles inside is like this: he’s not very good in there (yet).
Sometimes it seems like Jennings is forcing the issue to get inside, maybe he’s reacting to everyone telling him to be more aggressive or maybe he gets tired of missing midrange jumpers, I don’t know. But he’s often driving and trying to get up shots against significantly larger defenders inside and he just doesn’t quite know how to react to them yet. It’s not so much that he’s always getting blocked, it’s just that he’s getting altered frequently. His floater comes and goes throughout games, it’s not consistent. For a consistent floater, I’d direct him (or anyone else) to Luke Ridnour. Ridnour’s got all kinds of floaters and runners that he has been hitting all year.
It’s funny that defense has been such an issue for Atlanta, because you’d never know it from their games against Milwaukee. They’ve been forcing the Bucks to live and die by the jumper, which is often a safe bet for the opposition.
I’m as curious about Jamal Crawford as you are about Jennings though. He’s supposed to be a clutch dynamo. The numbers don’t agree. Is he secretly making Hawks fans pull their hair out more than we know?
Hoopinion: Crawford’s the same player he’s always been. The reason he’s had such a useful season is context. His typical volume of devastating crossovers used only to create space to attempt 20-foot jump shots hasn’t really declined but, playing with good players, he’s been able to augment that with open shots his teammates create for him, especially corner threes that begin with Josh Smith or Joe Johnson drawing a double-team or screen-and-roll with Al Horford.
Since I believe that Kurt Thomas can guard Horford in the post without help and that Thomas is nowhere near as mobile as Bogut, I’d love to see the Hawks run lots of Crawford/Horford screen-and-roll. Do you think that’s a recipe for success for the Hawks?
The underpinning of Atlanta switching every screen is to keep opponents in front of them (as a team) that the individual defenders couldn’t be expected to keep in front of them. This is largely why the Hawks and Heat rarely play a competitive game though neither team dominates the series. If the Hawks just keep the Heat in front of them, Miami’s forced to take shots they would prefer to pass up and the Hawks romp. On the other hand, some night Daequan Cook might make 11 jump shots and the Hawks lack a Plan B defensively and can’t compete with Miami.
I’ve been impressed with Jennings defense on the ball but thought he didn’t pay nearly enough attention to Mike Bibby when Bibby didn’t have the ball Monday night. Agree or disagree? And, if you do agree, is that a weakness typical to his game?
I’d also like to hear your thoughts regarding how Skiles will use Mbah a Moute. I’m a huge admirer of his. I think he can trouble both Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, though, obviously, not at the same time. Who do you think he’ll spend more time matched up against?
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Part two at Hoopinion.
A Grim View of What Lies Ahead: Hawks 104 – Bucks 96
Tuesday, April 13th, 2010“Snap back to reality, oh there goes gravity.”
- Eminem
There are reasons inside this one big reason why the Bucks had all kinds of problems with the Hawks Monday night, but we all know there is one reason that looms large:
Andrew Bogut in street clothes.
The trickledown effects of Bogut being out appeared so severe Monday night, that I’m not sure I see any way the Bucks could be able to overcome them four times in seven games. Of course, that’s what Milwaukee would need to do if they want to beat the Hawks in a playoff series. And with the Bucks 104-96 loss Monday night, combined with the Heat’s two point victory over Philadelphia, it’s looking awfully likely that the Bucks will now end up playing Atlanta in the series this city wants to avoid.
The games are less fun, the Hawks aren’t very villainy and the Bucks chances seem infinitely lower against Atlanta.
Aside from the obvious reasons (he’s Milwaukee’s best player and best defender), why is Bogut’s absence magnified so greatly against the Hawks? First, it’s the switching. Oh my, the switching. This is one thing that sets Atlanta apart as a defensive team and speaks to their versatility. Any time Milwaukee runs a pick and roll, Atlanta straight up switches it. If Kurt Thomas comes and sets a screen for Brandon Jennings, Al Horford will guard Jennings and Joe Johnson wil guard Thomas. And it doesn’t leave Atlanta in a bad spot. Horford is skilled enough as a perimeter defender that he makes it difficult for Jennings to get by him for an easy hoop.
Coach Scott Skiles wasn’t thrilled with his guards’ efforts in attacking in these situations.
“They’re switching centers onto our guards. A pro guard has got to be able to go by a center and do something. That’s the reality of it. We took way too many jumpshots. It’s something we’ve got to be much better at. Nothing against Al or Zaza (Pachulia), but if those guys are switching onto point guards or two guards, you’ve got to make them pay.”
But with Josh Smith lurking in the shadows behind the big guys on the outside, getting by the bigs and to the rim with success is easier said than done.
“When you’re switching a guy and you got Josh Smith on you, you think you can just take him to the rack but, he’s a guy who can move and he’s a great shot-blocker. It’s kind of real tough, we’re standing a lot on offense, not a lot of ball movement.”
So ball movement may be the answer?
“Well, you can’t just pass and keep going through. You gotta try and attack but, you know, you got somebody under there and guys just keep rotating. I think their length is unbelievable. They’re like an AAU team. “
If only the Bucks had a way to exploit any mismatches they did have on these switches. After all, Mike Bibby was on the court for 34 minutes, isn’t there a better way to attack him on the pick and roll. Ah, that’s where Bogut’s injury comes into play again. Sure, Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Ersan Ilyasova are all much bigger than Bibby, but how often are any of them looking to back a guy down? The last time these teams met, I counted three separate occasions in which LRMAM either got the ball on a swing or grabbed an offensive rebound with Bibby on him and failed to attack. Without Bogut, there are very few easy shots for the Bucks.
No, without Bogut, the Bucks are taking lots of long shots and looking at some long games ahead of them. The reality is, life without Bogut isn’t going to be pretty for the Bucks come playoff time. And this is just the start. (more…)
Game 81 Preview: Bucks vs. Hawks
Monday, April 12th, 2010Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 45-35
vs.
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 51-29
Date: 4/12/2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin
Matchups
Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Mike Bibby
We’ve seen all of these before. I wouldn’t expect much to change across the 1-3 spots. The Hawks will still probably use more Jamal Crawford than Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson will still get his share of time covering Jennings. If Milwaukee could find a way to get Jennings some positive momentum against the Hawks just in case these teams meet in the playoffs, that would be a delight. That could mean playing Jennings and Ridnour together some more. Of course, that creates quite a defensive mismatch for the Bucks. This is just one of the many reasons I’d rather see Milwaukee play Boston in round one.
Advantage: Bucks (more…)
