Enemy: Hoopinion

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Kirk Hinrich

Jennings has taken some positive steps forward in March after a brutal February in which he was returning from foot surgery.  He’s been better from the field overall and has seen his three-point shooting trend upwards over the past few games.  If he can make modest improvements in shot-selection from this season to next season, he’s more than capable of being a 42% guy from the field and a 37% guy from three.  When Jennings is catching and shooting, his primary role for Milwaukee, he’s pretty good.  He just gets into trouble when he’s taking shots off the dribble, primarily that off the dribble fadeaway from mid-range that he so rarely makes, but too frequently attempts.  Hinrich is a tough matchup for Jennings though: a strong, quick point guard that is a fierce competitor on defense.  He’s a good point guard for the Hawks and one that gives Milwaukee trouble a lot.

Advantage: Hawks

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Joe Johnson

Sebastian Pruiti made a very illustrating point to make on Salmons earlier today on Twitter:

John Salmons shots 52.2% when attacking the rim coming off of screens, but he opts to take a dribble jumper 78.5% of the time.

Salmons is connecting on just 33% of those dribble jumpers, a number that surprises not a single fan who has watched a lot of Bucks games this season.  Time after time Salmons pulls up for jumpers instead of getting to the rim.  Even worse, Salmons is often leaning, fading and generally off balance.  When Salmons is slashing through the lane and kicking out or taking it all the way to the hoop, he’s at his very best.  Too often he hasn’t done that this season though.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward
Carlos Delfino vs. Josh Smith

When Smith has played the three against Milwaukee, he’s been an awful matchup.  Delfino and the rest of the Milwaukee wings are no where near big or strong enough to stick with him, and he’s as quick as any of them.  He rises over them inside time after time.  Mbah a Moute is by far the best matchup for Smith Milwaukee has, but the Hawks frequently arrange the matchup so that Milwaukee has trouble getting their best defender onto him.  Smith too often takes himself out of games though, relying on his jumper despite his physical advantages over Bucks defenders.  Rarely does Smith hurt the Bucks too much, though it always seems like he’s about to.  I guess that’s the case with many of the most athletic players.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward
Luc Mbah a Moute vs. Al Horford

Horford should be back Tuesday night against the Bucks.  He always seems to get healthy just in time to play Milwaukee.  And that makes sense for him, as he’s shooting better against Milwaukee than he is against any team in the league outside of the Warriors.  This season, Horford is averaging 16.3 points on 71% shooting against the Bucks.  If Mbah a Moute is defending Smith, Horford feasts on Milwaukee’s other options.  Bogut is too slow and the rest of Milwaukee’s post defenders are not clever enough.  Mbah a Moute is a bit over-matched with Horford too, as Atlanta’s big man is very, very strong.

Advantage: Hawks

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Zaza Pachulia

The Hawks have started a Collins Brother at center often this season, but went with Pachulia when Horford was out last game.  It’s tough to tell where they will move at the five if Horford returns Tuesday.  He may slide over or he may stay at the four with a big man next to him.  Either way, it’ll be important for Bogut to be aggressive in the post, as that always opens up the Bucks offense for everyone else.  Even if Bogut is struggling, he needs post touches to make the offense go.  Every game Milwaukee has played well, he’s at least been active down low, if not effective.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Keyon Dooling, Earl Boykins, Larry Sanders, Jon Brockman and Corey Maggette

vs.

Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams and Damien Wilkins

Teague has come on lately and has the sort of quickness that can really change a game.  Crawford is still a very good scorer and Williams is a very good bench player.  Milwaukee’s gotten good play from Dooling, Boykins and Sanders of late as they move to a more stabilized bench.  Boykins in particular could have an impact, as he torched the Hawks in Atlanta earlier this season.  He could use Teague’s quickness against him and make some open shots if the Bucks get in another drought after a tough game in Boston.

Advantage: Hawks

Prediction: Hawks 97 – Bucks 90

Milwaukee won’t be as bad as they were in Boston, but they probably don’t have the talent to upend the Hawks at home.  Milwaukee will probably play good ball again, I see that Celtic game as more blip on the radar on their march towards the eighth seed, but Atlanta is a much more talented team.  I think the addition of Hinrich is what puts them over the top in this game.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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If you only have been watching Bucks games this season, you’re certainly aware of the three-point shot, but you may not have known how quickly it can turn a game around.

Now you know.

The simple way to explain Milwaukee’s improbable comeback from down 11 points to begin the fourth quarter is like this: they got hot.  Hot enough to outscore the Atlanta Hawks by 19 points in the fourth quarter on their way to a 98-90 victory in Milwaukee Wednesday night.

It started with Carlos Delfino.  Having struggled miserably in his first three games back from injury, some were calling for reduced minutes, or at least reduced shots for Delfino.  At least until he started making shots again.  Things can turn quickly in basketball though and Delfino appeared to have found his form early Wednesday night.  Delfino had made two of four threes heading into the fourth quarter.  He then hit another on Milwaukee’s first possession of the fourth quarter to cut Atlanta’s lead to eight and by the time he made his third and final three in the period, he was putting the Bucks up five.

He didn’t do it all by himself though.

Former D-Leaguer Garrett Temple sprinkled in a pair of timely threes and Earl Boykins went on one of his patented shot-making sprees to key a Bucks offense that had been lifeless throughout the game.  Defensively the Bucks kept after the Hawks and Atlanta did little to put pressure back onto a surging Milwaukee team.  The Hawks had been moving the ball well enough to get good looks and got solid play inside from Al Horford for three quarters.  But when things fell apart in the fourth quarter, the team started relying on Josh Smith jump-shots to get them back into the game.  Predictably, that failed miserably.

And on every miss the Bucks had a little more energy and countered with the plays they needed to make.

Offense

Garrett Temple only arrived in Milwaukee yesterday, but picked up everything he needed to by game time.  And the stuff he didn’t know about, he was fed by his teammates throughout the game.  Temple said he practiced mainly at point guard in his lone practice with the team, but he saw action exclusively at the two and three on Wednesday night.  He looked like a natural fit.

He finished with just eight points, but made three of five shots, grabbed three rebounds and handed out three assists while not committing a turnover.  He made a particularly key pass to Delfino in the fourth quarter.  With the Hawks in a zone and the ball swung to him on the right side, he skipped his pass across the court to a waiting Delfino outside the arc.  Delfino finished the play by making the three and the Bucks were up five with 2:29 to go.  Plays like that haven’t always been made for the Bucks this season.

• While the Bucks struggled early on, Corey Maggette did his best to keep his squad close.  Maggette uncharacteristically connected on three of four threes, as he made eight of 12 shots total for 22 points, despite not scoring in the fourth quarter.  Maggette fouled out on a questionable slap of Horford’s wrist with 2:46 remaining, but his teammates had already picked up where he’d left off after three quarters.

• When shots begin to fall, suddenly the Bucks look quite accomplished at moving the ball.  Milwaukee had seven assists in the fourth quarter on 11 made shots.  For the game, the Bucks handed out 22 assists and committed just seven turnovers.  Run of the mill stuff for a team that’s protected the ball well all season long.

• Delfino’s contributed his typical “little things” in each of the games he’s played in, but had his shot falling for the first time to match those tonight.  He finished with 15 points on five of 11 shooting (5-9 3FG) and grabbed five rebounds while handing out four assists.  Milwaukee saw five different players hand out at least three assists.

Defense

If he played enough minutes, Larry Sanders would lead the NBA in block percentage.  And I’m using numbers that didn’t even include tonight’s performance.  Sanders added three more blocks to his total against the Hawks.  For a guy as raw as Sanders, he looks so very comfortable on defense.  Sure of himself and aware of where he is supposed to be.  The same can’t always be said about his offensive game, but his development defensively has to be a nice surprise for the Bucks.

• Atlanta didn’t stick with it enough, but there were times when Smith and Joe Johnson were terrorizing Milwaukee’s guards and small forwards in the low post.  Smith particularly was all too content to settle for mid-range jumpers when he had an obvious quickness or size advantage over every Bucks player that covered him.  He’d finish with just 14 points on six for 20 shooting.

• Atlanta shot nearly 50% over the first three quarters.  The fourth quarter though, saw the Hawks make just 22.7% of their shots, while the Bucks connected on 61.1% of their attempts.

Final Thoughts

Is this a replicable formula?  That’s the question I was asking at the end of the game.  It’s unlikely the Bucks will make 10 of 20 threes on most nights, but they should be a better shooting team going forward than they have been, so long as Delfino is closer to Wednesday night’s Delfino than Monday night’s.  But Milwaukee got some unlikely performances.  Earl Boykins bails them out on occasion, but he won’t often make seven of 11 shots.  The Bucks got very hot for one quarter on Wednesday.  Against the Hawks, a team with a penchant for letting opponents back into games, that’ll work.  And it’ll work against a lot of bad teams too.

But the Bucks cannot continue to fall behind they way they’ve done so often this season if they are serious about making a run at .500 yet.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Strike another blow against momentum.

This season’s Milwaukee Bucks squad is doing their very best to shoot down any theories that a big win or two will carry over into the next game.  After taking two on the road on the traditionally difficult west coast, the Bucks were back home Monday night well rested and facing an Atlanta Hawks team that had been struggling mightily on the road.  There was every reason to believe Milwaukee would win again and have something positive going heading into a game with the Bulls in Chicago.

Instead, Milwaukee’s effort was as lethargic as it has been all year in a 95-80 loss to the Hawks.  Just how flat-footed and slow moving were the Bucks?  Jason Collins grabbed 12 rebounds.  The slow-footed, defensive minded, limited minute big man last grabbed more than 10 rebounds on February 19, 2008.  My goodness.

“This is how our season’s gone,” Coach Scott Skiles said after the game.  “We’ve been really read and really competitive a couple games in a row, then have a couple where we’re not and one where we are, one where we’re not, we’ve been riding that wave too much.  It was easy to see who had the mos energy and who wanted the game more, and that team won.  We can’t afford to play that way.  We want to win and until we get that figured out, we’ll be in this position.”

Skiles exasperation was evident in his lineups.  According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Monday night marked only the second time this season a team played both their starting center and point guard more than 40 minutes.  Andrew Bogut ptallied 43 minutes, while Keyon Dooling logged 41.  Skiles admitted he did not like playing Bogut so extensively.

“I overplayed him,” Skiles said.  “I had no intention of playing that much, I didn’t want to.  It’s just that we finally crept back into it and I wanted to leave him out there.”

Much more than last year, this Bucks team is tough to figure.  The loss drops Milwaukee to 7-7 at the Bradley Center, a place where the team played very well last season, going 28-13.  Yet with all the positive momentum and rest in the world, at home, Milwaukee could barely muster enough effort to keep it close with the Hawks.  A puzzling team these Bucks are.

Offense

Shot attempts were not the problem for Bogut Monday night.  Often he’ll be on the receiving end of a few hard double teams early and the team will look away from him for far too long.  But his shots were steady all night against the Hawks.  His makes were another story though.  Bogut connected on just seven of his 19 attempts from the field, as his night seemed to set the tone for the rest of the Bucks.  Milwaukee made just 37.3% of their shots on the evening, with Bogut’s poor night looming large.  The defensive duo of Collins and Al Horford did their best to push Bogut out away from the hoop, but even when he was getting the shots he typically gets and makes, they all were just a little off on the evening.

• Dooling certainly has a way about getting guys the ball where they want it.  He and Bogut have shown rapport over the past few games.  A couple of Dooling’s nine assists were on drives that left Bogut open underneath and only required a simple pass from Dooling to his big man for an easy hoop.  While he certainly is getting the job done in that area, Dooling again struggled with the long ball, hitting just one of six 3-pointers.  Total, Dooling made five of 13 shots, scored 15 points and generally looked like one of the most plugged in Bucks.

• The Bucks certainly could have used second half John Salmons in the first half.  In the final 24 minutes, Salmons scored 13 points on four of seven shooting (2-2 3FG).  In the first half, Salmons scored five points on two of five shooting (1-1 3FG).  If Salmons isn’t clearly the Bucks best perimeter player on the evening, Milwaukee often will have trouble mustering much offense from the perimeter.  In the second half Salmons delivered, in the first, he didn’t.  With he and Bogut both having uneven nights, it’s no wonder why the Bucks shot sub-40%.

Defense

Chris Douglas-Roberts played just four first quarter minutes and it certainly seemed like that had an awful lot to do with four early baskets that came pretty easy for Josh Smith. Coach Skiles elaborated when asked about Smith’s easy offense early and essentially summed up Milwaukee’s entire night defensively.

“You’ve got to compete,” he said.  “He just took the ball drove it right to the basket and laid it in.  If a guy competes against that and it happens because it is the NBA then there’s no problem.  You’ve got to be ready to compete.”

• The Hawks hit the magic number for shooting percentage against the Bucks: 50%.  Atlanta actually connected on 50.7% of their shots Monday, which was more than enough to top the Bucks.  When opponents shoot above 50% against the Bucks this season, the team is now 0-6.

Final Thoughts

While it wasn’t a must win for the Bucks Monday night, it sure was a “please win.”  The schedule gets no easier for Milwaukee as they head to Chicago on Tuesday night for their first meeting this season with the Bulls.  The Bucks have had a way about them so far and that way seems to have gotten them up for big games and kept them from getting up for home games.  Wins at Dallas and Los Angeles give hope that something good could happen in Chicago.  But so long as Milwaukee fails to establish any kind of presence at home, the wins on the road are being wasted.  The Bucks need that home court advantage they had last year and they need it soon.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Mike Bibby

The two-headed point guard monster the Bucks have trotted out since the fall of Brandon Jennings has more than held its ground in the last two games.  Against the Kings, Dooling and Boykins combined to make 14 of 29 shots en route to scoring 33 points.  In Los Angeles, the numbers were 11 for 21 and 30 points.  Offensively, there’s been no drop off since the Portland game.  Dooling can hold up against nearly any point defensively too, and while Boykins gives up plenty of size, he makes up for it with his quickness and plays on a team that has Andrew Bogut.  It’s an awful lot to expect of Boykins to think he’ll continue to shoot the lights out, but so long as Dooling and he are able to avoid disastrous games on the same night, Milwaukee appears in capable hands.  You know the Bibby Story: shoots well, old, slow, gamer.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Joe Johnson

Johnson’s dealing with a numbers drop off this season, not quite to the depths to which Salmons has plummeted, but a fall from a higher peak indeed.  Johnson is shooting just 40.8% after having made better than 43% of his shots each of his previous seasons in Atlanta.  Salmons is still at just 37.8% himself so we’ve got quite a disappointing matchup on our hands.  Salmons seems close to capturing what he had last season, dropping six assists while looking fully engaged in each of the last two games.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward
Chris Douglas-Roberts vs. Marvin Williams

CD-R hasn’t been the dynamo he was in his first two starts in the last few games, but he still offers the threat of doing something positive offensively, which in itself is important.  Williams is long, rangy and seems to have firmly cemented the fact that his surprisingly effective 3-point shooting two seasons ago was just a fluke. CD-R is considerably more likely to have a meaningful impact on this game, which doesn’t say much about Atlanta’s number two pick in the Bogut draft.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Josh Smith

Smith appears to be a better 3-pointer shooter than Ilyasova, having hit 40% of his shots to Ilyasova’s 28.6%.  That’s a tad depressing, considering Smith had to remove that shot from his arsenal last season.  Despite his increased accuracy from long range, Smith’s shooting percentage has dropped a few points from last season, while the rest of his game appears to be exactly the same as it’s been over the past three or four years.  So much for development of a young player.  He’s still dangerous though.

Advantage: Hawks

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Al Horford

Our main event.  Horford will not go quietly on defense and will muscle Bogut as far off of his beloved blocks as he can.  Bogut will work to prevent the short jump shots Horford holds so dear.  They will do battle.  Both men are vying for a reserve spot behind Dwight Howard on the Eastern Conference all-star team and both have made a viable case this season.  Horford is being featured in Atlanta’s offense more than ever this season and has responded with very respectable numbers while maintaining a defensive presence.  Bogut’s been great in December and surely will get up for a big game Monday.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Earl Boykins, Corey Maggette, Luc Mbah a Moute, Jon Brockman and Larry Sanders

vs.

Jamal Crawford, Zaza Pachulia, Josh Powell and Jeff Teague

Milwaukee’s been delving into the depth of their bench without Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette lately, and that could change if either or both of them play.  Maggette seems more likely to return for Monday’s game, but both could play.  Sanders received extended minutes in Sacramento and responded with four blocks and an alley-oop, pretty much the best that can be expected of him.  Crawford is still an intense force of scoring energy off the bench while Pachulia does the same thing, except replace scoring with annoying the opposition’s big men.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Milwaukee 94 – Atlanta 92

This won’t be easy either way.  Milwaukee’s well rested and coming off a strong three game road trip out West.  The Bucks don’t have any easy games on the horizon, so home games become all the more important as they battle to get back to .500.  The Hawks are doing the same thing they’ve been doing the last few years, maintaining middle of the pack mediocrity in the East.  They won’t be advancing far in the playoffs, but they won’t be dropping out.  They don’t really have a crew that excels in one area enough to pull off a possible upset later in the season, but they have a crew solid enough to get them where they want to go initially.  Milwaukee’s defense should factor in heavily tonight.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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When it was all said and done too many factors were working against the Bucks. Atlanta’s superiority was evident: length, size, athleticism, shooting, you name it Atlanta has it over Milwaukee. The Bucks pulled off a few victories that not many saw coming, but when focused, Atlanta was just too much for the Bucks to handle.

To have gotten as far as they have, for the Milwaukee Bucks right now it would be easy to be satisfied with what they’ve accomplished. Without their best player, Milwaukee pushed the third best team in the Eastern Conference to a Game 7. But there seemed very little satisfaction in just getting there throughout Milwaukee’s last stance in their first round series with the Atlanta Hawks. Not from Brandon Jennings at least, who forced ABC to make use of their five second delay as he cursed at himself in disgust heading off the court at halftime after missing the second of two free throws.

Maybe they still shot too many jumpers, but when it came down to it, Milwaukee just didn’t have the players to exploit the Hawks constant switching off screens. Not enough Bucks are good enough off the dribble to take advantage of mismatches on the perimeter. That’s how the Bucks came to rely on a 20-year-old rookie in Game 7 of an NBA Playoffs series. And make no mistake, the Bucks rode Jennings in this one.

After being one of the aforementioned Bucks that settled too often for jump shots in Game Six, Jennings was in attack mode against the Hawks Sunday afternoon. Of his 18 shots, Jennings took 10 of them inside the paint and at the rim. Someone had to expose the Hawks on their pick and roll defense and Jennings wanted to step up to be the guy that did that Sunday. That’s what leaders do.

But Jennings can’t guard Al Horford. And apparently neither can Primoz Brezec. Or Dan Gadzuric. Or Ersan Ilyasova. Or even Kurt Thomas, at least not when Horford really has it going and is attacking the glass. Horford was too much inside all game and all series, save for a game or two. Horford led the charge with 15 rebounds as the Hawks dominated on the glass 55-34.

It won’t always be like this though. The Bucks will have Andrew Bogut back next season. It’s possible he could be joined by a brand new burly power forward with some tools. A slasher could show up ready to get to the bucket with John Salmons if he hangs around and the Bucks could be better than ever.

And look at that, I’m talking about next season for the first time. On May 2nd. That sure feels a lot better than doing it in March or April as I’ve done the majority of this last decade. So I’m as disappointed as the next person today, but it feels good to have something to build on.

Offense

I don’t know if John Salmons will be a Bucks player next season, but if he isn’t, this wasn’t a pretty end to a very solid run. After shooting 39% on threes for the Bucks during the regular season, Salmons finished the playoffs 4-23 from long distance. I don’t know if he ran out of gas, something that seems feasible, but whatever the case, Salmons collapsed over the last three games for Milwaukee. No longer was he attacking the hoop and getting free throws, he was just settling for jumpers. It was as if everything that had happened during the regular season never happened. If this was the John Salmons that the Chicago Bulls shipped out this season, I can see why. But I don’t to believe that’s who he is. I want to remember Salmons as the guy who helped get the Bucks to the level they finally could not advance past.

• Ersan Ilyasova may not have a post game and he may miss a few shots around the rim, but you never feel like you’re getting cheated when you watch him. As usual, Ilyasova was the Bucks best rebounder against the Hawks, grabbing more than half of their offensive rebounds. I’m looking forward to see what the future holds for Ersan Ilyasova; Scott Skiles likes to project him as a near 40% three point shooter going forward. At the very least, we know one thing we’re getting from him, be it in a one point win or Sunday’s frustrating loss, is maximum effort.

• The production from role players that had gotten Milwaukee so far this season was no where to be found when it was needed most. Jerry Stackhouse: 0-a-miserable-3 FG. Luke Ridnour: 1-4 FG. Carlos Delfino: 1-8 FG. Folks, there is a reason Michael Redd will have made over $100 million dollars by the time his career is done. Some guys can be relied upon to score, others can’t. Those scorers are worth a lot of money on this level. Milwaukee simply didn’t have enough reliable options in the playoffs. There are times I’ve tried to spin that as a Bucks advantage, “they’re hard to game plan for, anyone can creep up and strike!” But who was I kidding? The Bucks need at least one more reliable scorer to put those role players in a better position to take advantage of their strengths.

Defense

Milwaukee got eaten up inside. Al Horford is grabbing an offensive rebound and dunking right now probably. I mean, it’s been said 1,000 times, but there was just too much Atlanta inside. They were too big and to strong. Ilyasova did his best when matched up with Zaza Pachulia and Horford, but what was he supposed to do? Kurt Thomas held up as well as he could, but that only gave Milwaukee so much.

• And if it wasn’t bad enough to see the Hawks banging around Milwaukee inside, it seemed every time Milwaukee was possibly on the verge of something good, either Mike Bibby or Jamal Crawford hit a three. Bibby and Crawford were the bullies that kept pushing the Bucks heads back underwater whenever they’d squirm away and come up for air.

Final Thoughts

Scott Skiles talked a lot about the Bucks earning everything they’ve gotten this season before game six.

“Let’s make sure wherever we go this year, we deserve to be wherever we are,” said Skiles. “If we don’t work very hard, we’re gonna get what we deserve. If we work hard, the opposite is going to happen. And we’ve done that. We deserve to be where we are right now, we deserve this opportunity.”

The Bucks deserved everything they got this season. A lot of people (yours truly included) scoffed at the “Work Hard Play Hard” mantra they took on before the season. I figured, we’d all heard sayings like this before, why should this season be any different? But this season was different and it was no fluke. The Bucks outworked opponents all year before they finally ran into a team that would not fold four times in seven games.

That’s nothing to be ashamed of, but it certainly is something to get excited about.

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Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?

Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night.  Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net.  Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots.  One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed.  You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says,  “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”

A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though.  Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.

Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four.  The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.

Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.

After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?

Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.

When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one.

Offense

As he’s done in their victories, Brandon Jennings took a lead role once again. Flashing that streakiness that once elevated him to rock star status in his 55-point game, Jennings opened up the first quarter by scoring 12 consecutive Bucks points after the Hawks opened up an all-too-easy 11-6 lead. When Jennings gets hot it seems once again impossible to predict when he’ll let up. That’s what was so fun about Brandon Jennings earlier in the season. He had such control over every game and seemed to make every big shot when his team needed him. His confidence was high and everyone else’s confidence in him was even higher. During his extended drought that was known as “most of the regular season” it was easy to forget how fun that first month following Jennings was. He’s brought those good times back and done it at the best possible time.

• Milwaukee was 15-18 on free throws in the fourth quarter. On 25 separate occasions this season, the Bucks shot less than 18 free throws in an entire game. I think this says wonders about how bad Milwaukee wanted this one and their desire when it looked to be slipping away. The Bucks continuously attacked the rim as soon as Atlanta was in the penalty, knowing if they could just score some points their defense may be able to keep them in the game.

• As he’s done most of the season, Luke Ridnour brought his jump-shot with him to the game. Ridnour finished with 15 points (5-7 FG 1-1 3FG 4-4 FT) and four steals, reminding us all of how effective he’s been as a reserve this season. I figured at least one Bucks role player would have to step up and have a big game and Ridour did just that.

• Ersan Ilyasova’s two offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter were so delightfully Ersan that I almost can imagine John Hammond calling Larry Bird after they happened and saying, “See, that’s why I didn’t want to give him up for Troy Murphy.” Seven points and seven rebounds may look quiet, but Ersan sure played a very important part in this one.

Defense

How does a man end a game with a +21 +/- while attempting just one shot and going scoreless? Well, it’s actually a two part answer. Part one is he plays terrific defense and part two is his backups play generally horrible. That’s the story of Kurt Thomas on Wednesday. Al Horford may have scored 25 points, but just nine of them came with Thomas on the court. Horford wasn’t able to back Thomas down and get any easy looks the way he did when any combination of Primoz Brezec, Dan Gadzuric, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute were on him. His defense on an otherwise dominating Horford will deservedly take a backseat to the monster charge he drew on Joe Johnson, but it was a huge relief for everyone rooting for Milwaukee when he checked back in to slow Horford in the fourth quarter.

• Nearly as impressive as the job Thomas did on Horford was the one John Salmons did on Joe Johnson. With a forgettable performance brewing from Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford, the responsibility in this one fell on Johnson. Salmons couldn’t have made his life any more difficult in the fourth quarter, making him hit shots falling away from the hoop with a hand in his face and maneuver through double teams instead of into open space. Salmons work allows Mbah a Moute to nest inside of Josh Smith’s head and changes everything for the Bucks.

Final Thoughts

Milwaukee has blown through what typically justifies progress so quickly that I’m still a little stunned. There are supposed to be proper channels for these things. A few close games in this series should have led to some wins next year which then would lead to a series win or two the following year. But the Bucks have been terrifically impatient and appear to be unsatisfied with progress being a slow process. With game six already sold out on Friday, Milwaukee has a prime opportunity in front of them. Does this seem like the type of team to let something like that slip away?

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Bucksketball: So what’s with Joe Johnson covering Brandon Jennings? Does he frequently guard point guards? I was discussing this with someone at the last game, and with Chris Paul being out this season, I’d argue Johnson is probably the second best defensive point guard the Bucks have had the displeasure of seeing this season.

And why is Al Horford forcing Milwaukee point guards to shoot jump shots? He doesn’t get much national recognition, but he seems like a very good defender.

Hoopinion: Joe’s guarded point guards a lot. Not because he’s especially effective (though he does the best he can to use his length to make up for a relative lack of foot speed) but because the Hawks have used Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson and Mike Bibby at point guard alongside him. Backcourt defense is a big issue with this team, to the point that people were reasonably concerned that letting Flip Murray walk would hurt the defense. It hasn’t really (they’re still mediocre defensively), but that’s more to do with Josh Smith being healthy than with Bibby or Jamal Crawford even approaching competence.

In all seriousness, Horford might be the Hawks’ best perimeter defender. He moves his feet really well (this is why he commits so few fouls both in space and in the post) and understands that it’s far better to give up the 18-footer to guards than let them get past him. The downside to this (and the switching defense the Hawks use almost exclusively) is that, while Horford’s doing an admirably job on the perimeter against smaller, quicker players, Bibby or Crawford is forced to try and box out a bigger player once the shot goes up. The inversion of the defenders is the primary reason the Hawks are 24th in the league in DR%.

I think the Hawks would be fine with letting Bibby guard Jennings given Brandon’s struggles inside the arc this year and given the presence of Smith and Horford to complicate matters for him.

Let’s make that my first question for you. What’s up with Jennings making such a low percentage of his two-point attempts? 42.8% at the rim and 41.3% inside 10 feet (per Hoopdata and before last night’s game). Poor shot selection or poor finishing or both?

Bucksketball:  Johnson’s length has certainly been an issue for Jennings, who, as you’ve noted, has enough issues of his own.

Speaking as someone who’s seen nearly every game Jennings has played in this season, the best way I can explain his struggles inside is like this: he’s not very good in there (yet).

Sometimes it seems like Jennings is forcing the issue to get inside, maybe he’s reacting to everyone telling him to be more aggressive or maybe he gets tired of missing midrange jumpers, I don’t know. But he’s often driving and trying to get up shots against significantly larger defenders inside and he just doesn’t quite know how to react to them yet. It’s not so much that he’s always getting blocked, it’s just that he’s getting altered frequently. His floater comes and goes throughout games, it’s not consistent. For a consistent floater, I’d direct him (or anyone else) to Luke Ridnour. Ridnour’s got all kinds of floaters and runners that he has been hitting all year.

It’s funny that defense has been such an issue for Atlanta, because you’d never know it from their games against Milwaukee. They’ve been forcing the Bucks to live and die by the jumper, which is often a safe bet for the opposition.

I’m as curious about Jamal Crawford as you are about Jennings though. He’s supposed to be a clutch dynamo. The numbers don’t agree. Is he secretly making Hawks fans pull their hair out more than we know?

Hoopinion: Crawford’s the same player he’s always been. The reason he’s had such a useful season is context. His typical volume of devastating crossovers used only to create space to attempt 20-foot jump shots hasn’t really declined but, playing with good players, he’s been able to augment that with open shots his teammates create for him, especially corner threes that begin with Josh Smith or Joe Johnson drawing a double-team or screen-and-roll with Al Horford.

Since I believe that Kurt Thomas can guard Horford in the post without help and that Thomas is nowhere near as mobile as Bogut, I’d love to see the Hawks run lots of Crawford/Horford screen-and-roll. Do you think that’s a recipe for success for the Hawks?

The underpinning of Atlanta switching every screen is to keep opponents in front of them (as a team) that the individual defenders couldn’t be expected to keep in front of them. This is largely why the Hawks and Heat rarely play a competitive game though neither team dominates the series. If the Hawks just keep the Heat in front of them, Miami’s forced to take shots they would prefer to pass up and the Hawks romp. On the other hand, some night Daequan Cook might make 11 jump shots and the Hawks lack a Plan B defensively and can’t compete with Miami.

I’ve been impressed with Jennings defense on the ball but thought he didn’t pay nearly enough attention to Mike Bibby when Bibby didn’t have the ball Monday night. Agree or disagree? And, if you do agree, is that a weakness typical to his game?

I’d also like to hear your thoughts regarding how Skiles will use Mbah a Moute. I’m a huge admirer of his. I think he can trouble both Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, though, obviously, not at the same time. Who do you think he’ll spend more time matched up against?

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Part two at Hoopinion.

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- Eminem

There are reasons inside this one big reason why the Bucks had all kinds of problems with the Hawks Monday night, but we all know there is one reason that looms large:

Andrew Bogut in street clothes.

The trickledown effects of Bogut being out appeared so severe Monday night, that I’m not sure I see any way the Bucks could be able to overcome them four times in seven games.  Of course, that’s what Milwaukee would need to do if they want to beat the Hawks in a playoff series.  And with the Bucks 104-96 loss Monday night, combined with the Heat’s two point victory over Philadelphia, it’s looking awfully likely that the Bucks will now end up playing Atlanta in the series this city wants to avoid.

The games are less fun, the Hawks aren’t very villainy and the Bucks chances seem infinitely lower against Atlanta.

Aside from the obvious reasons (he’s Milwaukee’s best player and best defender), why is Bogut’s absence magnified so greatly against the Hawks?  First, it’s the switching.  Oh my, the switching.  This is one thing that sets Atlanta apart as a defensive team and speaks to their versatility.  Any time Milwaukee runs a pick and roll, Atlanta straight up switches it.  If Kurt Thomas comes and sets a screen for Brandon Jennings, Al Horford will guard Jennings and Joe Johnson wil guard Thomas.  And it doesn’t leave Atlanta in a bad spot.  Horford is skilled enough as a perimeter defender that he makes it difficult for Jennings to get by him for an easy hoop.

Coach Scott Skiles wasn’t thrilled with his guards’ efforts in attacking in these situations.

“They’re switching centers onto our guards.  A pro guard has got to be able to go by a center and do something.  That’s the reality of it.  We took way too many jumpshots.  It’s something we’ve got to be much better at.  Nothing against Al or Zaza (Pachulia), but if those guys are switching onto point guards or two guards, you’ve got to make them pay.”

But with Josh Smith lurking in the shadows behind the big guys on the outside, getting by the bigs and to the rim with success is easier said than done.

“When you’re switching a guy and you got Josh Smith on you, you think you can just take him to the rack but, he’s a guy who can move and he’s a great shot-blocker.  It’s kind of real tough, we’re standing a lot on offense, not a lot of ball movement.”

So ball movement may be the answer?

“Well, you can’t just pass and keep going through.  You gotta try and attack but, you know, you got somebody under there and guys just keep rotating.  I think their length is unbelievable.  They’re like an AAU team. “

If only the Bucks had a way to exploit any mismatches they did have on these switches.  After all, Mike Bibby was on the court for 34 minutes, isn’t there a better way to attack him on the pick and roll.  Ah, that’s where Bogut’s injury comes into play again.  Sure, Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Ersan Ilyasova are all much bigger than Bibby, but how often are any of them looking to back a guy down?  The last time these teams met, I counted three separate occasions in which LRMAM either got the ball on a swing or grabbed an offensive rebound with Bibby on him and failed to attack.  Without Bogut, there are very few easy shots for the Bucks.

No, without Bogut, the Bucks are taking lots of long shots and looking at some long games ahead of them.  The reality is, life without Bogut isn’t going to be pretty for the Bucks come playoff time.  And this is just the start.

Offense

At first glance, a few things stand out in the box score.  One is the Bucks shooting percentage, again less than 40%.  That’s not on the map that gets teams to a win.  Another is the turnovers.  Milwaukee had just four turnovers and 20 assists.  So what’s this talk about ball-movement?  Milwaukee must have been moving the ball and finding guys, right?  Not according to Coach Skiles.

“I think I can argue that a lot of our shots were turnovers.”

Well then.  I guess that would explain the poor shooting percentage and lack of turnovers in a concise and impactful way.  Milwaukee was 11-32 on threes, probably part of what Coach Skiles was referring to.

• As is per usual, John Salmons again led the way for Milwaukee, scoring efficiently and often, finishing with 28 points (9-18 FG 3-6 3FG 7-9 FT).  Salmons was one of the few Bucks able to attack, but he does hold the ball a bit long on occasion.  On top of that, when Salmons is holding the ball, it often seems like other players are standing around waiting for him to make the first move.  This is exactly the type of thing both Jennings and Skiles were referring to as detrimental.

• What does a bad night for Ersan Ilyasova look like?  Try 2-11 FG and four fouls with just four rebounds to his credit.  Ilyasova typically makes a living on the offensive glass putbacks, but he had just two offensive boards and was generally ineffective against the Hawks.  The Bucks really could have used a nice game from Ilyasova too, they got almost nothing out of Primoz Brezec and Dan Gadzuric (0-1 FG, 2 PF and one Brezec moment where he tripped over his own feet, in a combined eight minutes).

Defense

• Points in the paint: Atlanta 52 – Milwaukee 20.
• Rebounds: Atlanta 48 – Milwaukee 34.
• Blocked shots: Atlanta 11 – Milwaukee 1.

Is it clear who owned the inside in this one?

Remember what I wrote about Josh Smith before the game?  You don’t?  That’s okay, it’s still on the interweb, so I’ll just bust it back out.

…don’t expect big block numbers from Smith.  Unless he’s getting Jerry Stackhouse or flying across the paint.  The Bucks move the ball well, so if he’s flying around they can take advantage.

That was me saying Josh Smith wouldn’t block a lot of shots.  He had six.  To my credit, I assumed the Bucks would be moving the ball well, instead of getting their shots tossed all over the arena.  Smith fed off the Bucks lack of “second level” ball movement.  I’m referring to the movement that comes after the first defender is beat.  Milwaukee lacked that Monday night.

• And by the way, is everyone else more concerned with Joe Johnson than Paul Pierce at this point?  Pierce is very good, but Johnson is just bonkers.  Post-ups, jumpers, threes, drives to the basket, you name it, this guy was doing it against the Bucks again.  12-19 FG 4-6 3FG 3-4 FT all added up to 31 points and an even more prominent place inside the Bucks scouting reports going forward.

Final Thoughts

There’s very little that I enjoyed about this game.  Among the things I least enjoyed was knowing that this loss makes it all the more likely Milwaukee will now be playing the Hawks in round one.  The Hawks team that looks to own the Bogut-less Bucks.  Atlanta can handle “small ball” better than any team in the league and are more than capable of matching up when a team goes big.  They can adjust to any style and frequently dictate the game.  Or the exact things the Bucks were looking to do without their center.  Milwaukee seemed to take this loss as a learning experience though.  They certainly won’t roll over against anyone.  But that doesn’t mean Atlanta won’t roll the Bucks over themselves.

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vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 51-29

Date: 4/12/2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Mike Bibby

We’ve seen all of these before.  I wouldn’t expect much to change across the 1-3 spots.  The Hawks will still probably use more Jamal Crawford than Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson will still get his share of time covering Jennings.  If Milwaukee could find a way to get Jennings some positive momentum against the Hawks just in case these teams meet in the playoffs, that would be a delight.  That could mean playing Jennings and Ridnour together some more.  Of course, that creates quite a defensive mismatch for the Bucks.  This is just one of the many reasons I’d rather see Milwaukee play Boston in round one.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Joe Johnson

Johnson has had some injury issues lately (sprained thumb), but he’s just fine now apparently.  If Johnson were to be out of this equation it would make Milwaukee’s job considerably easier.  Johnson’s size and ability to play different positions give the Hawks such an advantage on both sides of the ball.  Johnson can switch onto bigger players defensively and post up small players when Atlanta has the ball.  Salmons could see some time at the point, as he did the other day against New Jersey, if Milwaukee wants to use a bigger back court to avoid mismatches with the Hawks.  Hopefully we’ll get another duel out of these two like the one they had in late March.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward
Carlos Delfino vs. Marvin Williams

Two of the more underrated defensive forwards in the league together again.  These two probably won’t have much impact, but could have huge impacts if either is able to bust out with a big game.  Delfino is the more likely candidate, but Williams isn’t immune to a good night every now and then.  Guys like Delfino and Williams are very difficult to project as scorers, their big games seem to come at random.  Both do contribute as defenders though and Delfino does a lot in every game that doesn’t make a lot of waves, but helps his team win.  Delfino is a better ball handler and creator, but doesn’t have the size to switch onto fours like Williams does.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Josh Smith

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute gets his shot blocked a lot.  Josh Smith blocks a lot of shots.  So we may be seeing those two things collide at some point during Monday’s game.  More than likely, Smith’s biggest impact on this game will be offensively though.  Smith gives Milwaukee all kinds of problems at the four if Milwaukee chooses to go small.  He was posting up Jerry Stackhouse with reckless abandon on the 22nd of March when these teams last met.  Defensively, Smith got all of his blocks last game by waiting on the weak side for Andrew Bogut to shoot.  He tossed them into the crowd shortly after a number of Bogut’s shots.  With the Bucks not posting up very often any more, don’t expect big block numbers from Smith.  Unless he’s getting Jerry Stackhouse or flying across the paint.  The Bucks move the ball well, so if he’s flying around they can take advantage.

Advantage: Hawks

Center
Kurt Thomas vs. Al Horford

While Horford isn’t a traditional post up player, he can still score down low.  He takes four shots nightly at the rim, connecting on over 70% of them.  Get him away from the rim though, and his percentages drop drastically.  The Bucks will need to keep him off the offensive glass, which is where he does the most of his damage.  The best skill Horford has though, is his ability to guard anyone on the perimeter.  He’s as important as any Hawk in their “switch on all screens” type defensive style.  The fact that Horford can stick with most Bucks on the perimeter is almost unfair.

Advantage: Hawks

Bench
Jerry Stackhouse, Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

Jamal Crawford, Maurice Evans and Zaza Pachulia

The Bucks are deeper but the Hawks have the best player.  Crawford can and will explode, but he’ll shoot the Hawks out of it as he did in late March at the Bradley Center.  Carwford’s size is another issue for the Bucks … is that beginning to become redundant?  The Hawks are crazy.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Hawks 96 – Bucks 92

What should be most interesting about this game is seeing how the smaller Bucks lineups stack up with the Hawks.  We haven’t seen much of that, so it’s possible Milwaukee will fare better their than I’m expecting.  Still, Atlanta is too athletic and too strong defensively.  Their the Sixers on steroids.

Of course, Milwaukee did beat Philly last week.

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Vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 45-24

Date: 3/22/10

Time: 7:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Mike Bibby

Two guys heading opposite ways.  Bibby was the table setter and clutch leader for the Kings in their heyday and helped get the Hawks over the hump when they were without a point guard for so many years.  But father time appears to have caught up with the former Arizona great.  Jamal Crawford has more or less usurped him as the fifth Hawk and Joe Johnson handles the play-making role often.  But Bibby still cannot be left alone when he’s out there; he’s shooting .535 from three in the month of March and nearly 40% on the season.  Jennings is shooting a respectable .412 from the field in March and a spectacular .490 from three after nearly everyone had written him off as relevant.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Joe Johnson

Johnson gave Salmons fits down the stretch in Atlanta, but it’s not like he wasn’t hitting tough shots.  Johnson is a star and plays like one.  Salmons has been masquerading as a star himself lately, icing the game at the free throw line on Saturday and giving the Bucks breathing room Friday.  Salmons defensive efforts on Tyreke Evans, Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were all stellar, if he can duplicate his efforts against Atlanta, it’d go a long way towards stopping the Hawks.  Johnson spent some time on Jennings in Atlanta and it worked out pretty spectacularly for the Hawks.  I’d expect to see some more of that in Milwaukee.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Marvin Williams

Williams scored 20 or more points for just the third time this season in the Hawks overtime win over San Antonio on Sunday.  He’s more about defense and hustle than he is about scoring, but I’m still amazed that Delfino has more 20 point games.  I suppose that speaks to the balance of the Hawks as much as it speaks about the deficiencies in Williams’ game, but I thought he’d be much better than this anyway.  I’d actually rather have Delfino than Williams in the here and now.  I know that sounds homerish and borderline insane given my distaste for ‘Los earlier this year, but Delfino is a better rebounder, passer and shooter.  Given that we’re five years into 30 mpg for Williams, I don’t see that changing much either.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Josh Smith

Smith is a nightmare for the Bucks.  He’s quick, athletic, a helluva shot-blocker and causes matchup problems wherever he goes.  Having him lurking on the weak side makes every shot near the rim a challenge.  It’s tough to go right at him either, because Mbah a Moute is so limited offensively.  LRMAM has lost some playing time to Ersan Ilyasova lately as Ers has been a better matchup, but Mbah a Moute might get some more minutes tonight.  Neither of them are a great matchup for Smith, but Mbah a Moute has the quickness to stick with him on the perimeter.  Smith has cut out the threes, but he still loves to penetrate.

Advantage: Hawks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Al Horford

An image that still resides in my head from the last Hawks-Bucks game was that of Bogut attempting a shot as the game was winding down and Horford completely snuffing it out.  Horford’s tough.  Bogut’s had his struggles of late, so hopefully a home crowd will rejuvenate anything that ails him, but Horford won’t make anything easy on him.  These two are more or less going to cancel each other out, but part of me still thinks Bogut may be able to get it going so long as he hits his first few shots.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jerry Stackhouse, Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour and Kurt Thomas

Vs.

Jamal Crawford, Joe Smith, Zaza Pachulia and Maurice Evans

A strong game against Denver was a saving grace after struggles in L.A. and Sacramento for the Bucks bench.  Ilyasova has had it going recently and Ridnour played well in Denver, but Stackhouse has been MIA the last three.  If the Bucks want long-term success this year, they’ll have to find a way to get more from Stack.  The Hawks ride their four starters pretty hard and Crawford is typically their fifth guy.  He’s going to the playoffs for the first time in his life this year and has played like a guy who’s seen enough losing.  He can get hot, think Jennings mixed with Salmons when Crawford is on.  The rest of the Hawks bench is mainly there to be serviceable and they succeed at that.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 97 – Hawks 92

Milwaukee fought hard and lost a close on the road to Atlanta at the end of February, so why can’t they flip the script when the Hawks come to town?  Jennings struggled against the Hawks defense and Ridnour played well enough to earn the call down the stretch, but given Jennings stellar play of late, he could be the lift that the Bucks need to take down the Hawks.  Either way, expect a close game, expect some chippiness at some point and expect some playoff type basketball.  These teams could be seeing a lot more of each other in the next month.

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