Enemy: Philadunkia

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Jrue Holiday

In six March games, Holiday is averaging nearly 40 minutes a night, as Coach Collins has shortened the Sixer rotation.  Holiday’s responded with improved rebound and assist numbers, but has struggled to make threes or free throws with much consistency.  While he has good size, he’s more speed and quickness than power at this early point in his career.  Power point guards often give Jennings loads of trouble, but he has success with ones that rely on quickness he typically can match.  I hesitate to even mention it for fear of a jinx, but Jennings has shot well over 40% from the field in March while averaging over 20 points per outing.  In addition, he has made 50% of his shots or better in each of his last two games.

Advantage: Sixers

Read more…

Enemy: Philadunkia

Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Jrue Holiday

I was big on both Jrue Holiday and Brandon Jennings before the 2009 draft.  I’m still big on both, but now I’m growing even more intrigued with Holiday, probably because I don’t see him as much and because Jennings hasn’t played in nearly a month.  Holiday is coming into his own this season after a slow rookie year.  He’s shown improvements virtually across the board while maintaining some of the better numbers he had last season.  Holiday shot an unbelievable 39% on threes last season, even though he wasn’t touted as much of a shooter coming out of UCLA.  That number has dipped a bit this season — he’s down to 34.9 from three — but he’s still a threat.  What’s particularly impressive about Holiday is the solid mid-range game he’s displayed and his “sky’s the limit” defense.

Advantage: Sixers Read more…

Salary returning for Milwaukee: $56,068,163 (Kudos to ShamSports.com for the numbers)
Salary Cap: $58-60 million
Luxury Tax Level: Between $70-75 million (Probably at least. The NBA out did their projections it sounds like, so I’d expect the luxury tax not to fall from its current amount: $69.920 million.)

Resignable Free Agents
Luke Ridnour
John Salmons
Kurt Thomas
Jerry Stackhouse
Royal Ivey

At this point, Stackhouse and Thomas are veteran’s minimum ($1,352,181) guys and I’d say it’s no better than 50/50 that either of them will return. They played nice roles this season, but counting on them next season to contribute as much as they did this season may be a recipe for disaster. Ridnour is looking at backup point guard money, which is also known as a huge pay cut. Teams have had great success recently with younger players at the point, and while this year’s draft is not as point guard rich as last season’s, he could feel the crunch in terms of his salary. The market value for Ridnour can’t be much higher than $3 million a season.

Salmons has an extension staring him in the face that would keep him at $5.8 million this next season. He’d be wise to accept a contract that gives him four more seasons of above mid-level money, but he wouldn’t be the first player to mistakenly assume he’s worth more than he is.

If Ridnour comes back at $3 million and Salmons does the same at $5.8 million, they’ll be looking at roughly $65 million in salary, and that’s before draft picks are factored in. If Milwaukee keeps each of their three draft picks, the roster will be at 14 players (factoring in Darnell Jackson), with Royal Ivey being a possible option for the fifteenth spot.

So, free agency? I’m thinking it won’t factor heavily into Milwaukee’s plans this off-season.

But trades? Trades may once again alter the Bucks landscape. Last summer they shook things up and locked up the NBA title for San Antonio by handing them Richard Jefferson on a silver platter. What’s that? Kurt Thomas had nearly the same PER as Jefferson in the playoffs (10.0-10.9)? Oh. It’s funny how that worked out. That bold move showed that John Hammond is not afraid to make big moves over the off-season rather than stand pat and hope for development.

Who could the Bucks have some interest in this off-season (and who would I like to see them have interest in in some of the cases)?

Josh Childress
Milwaukee flirted with Childress last off-season, but was unable to get anything done. To land Childress, Childress is still a restricted free agent and he makes roughly $7 million after taxes in Europe (over $10 million in NBA money), so the hurdles Milwaukee would need to get over to work out a deal with Childress would be significant. The Bucks would likely have to work out some kind of sign and trade with the Hawks, which can only happen if Childress does not sign an offer sheet with the Bucks. Childress was last seen in the NBA in 2007-08 and would fit the Bucks as a high percentage shooter with the ability to defend and do the little things Milwaukee loves so much.

Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is signed through 2013/14 for all kinds of crazy money, over $55 million. For the suddenly rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers, that doesn’t quite add up. If they could dump him for an expiring contract and a younger player, odds are they’d love to. Michael Redd and two draft picks may get the Sixers ear as a starting point. Iggy is versatile, a good defender, athletic and capable of hitting an open three. Unfortunately, Iggy has fallen for the three in the last three years (over 300 attempts in two of the past three years while shooting roughly 30%) and hasn’t fit as a leader on a once emerging Sixers squad. He’s naturally a better fit as a supporting player and he may be thrust into too large a role on the Bucks if they weren’t able to get another star wing. His contract simply won’t allow for him to ever be a good value, something Milwaukee needs to thrive on.

Carl Landry
John Hammond acknowledged he had interest in Landry at the trade deadline. The Kings hold the third pick in the draft, prime DeMarcus Cousins territory. Jason Thompson has three years left on his contract and Landry has one. All those signs add up to the possibility that Landry could be had. At $3 million next season, Landry is a very valuable player and an expiring contract. He’s not someone who eats the ball, but he is someone who can score efficiently. He’s precisely the kind of player who would fit in Milwaukee at the power forward spot.

Brandon Bass
In each of the next three seasons, Bass will make $4 million and likely sit behind Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat (if he’s kept), Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson. If Orlando wins the title this season, they may be interested in shedding just enough payroll to stay under the luxury tax, but no one of enough value to knock them from the league’s elite. Per 36 minutes this past season, Bass averaged 16 points while shooting over 50% from the field, grabbed 7.1 rebounds and blocked 1.5 shots. His numbers suggest he could be more productive, past his allotted salary even, if given more minutes. Perhaps a combination of second round picks and lesser salaries could balance and get Bass in Milwaukee. I’d love to see Bass in a Bucks uniform.

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 44-34

at

Philadelphia 76ers (Eddie Jordan) 26-52

Time: 6:00 (CST)
NO TV

Go on, admit it.  You’re tired of Philadelphia.  I certainly am.  The Sixers have given the Bucks fits all year.  We know the drill at this point, they’re athletic, they have more talent than their record indicates and if they’re able to hit some threes, all hell can break loose.

So, what can Milwaukee do to take one from Philly for once?

• Control the ball

Milwaukee’s had very good assist to turnover numbers when they’ve played well this year.  Philadelphia has given them trouble in this area all season.  Twice when playing the Sixers, Milwaukee has turned the ball over more times than they assisted on baskets.  The other game Milwaukee had a 10-8 assist to turnover ratio.  Those aren’t encouraging numbers.  Perhaps with Bogut out, the Bucks will be able to go small in an effort to get more ball handlers on the court to combat the Sixers athleticism.

Matchups

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Jrue Holiday.

Holiday is horrifying.  He’s like Rajon Rondo was as a rookie.  After a bounce back March, April hasn’t been so kind to Brandon Jennings.  Let’s move on.

Advantage: Sixers Read more…

Recap/Box Score

Fortunately for the Milwaukee Bucks, one team had to emerge victorious Wednesday night.  It’s a rule.  Otherwise, the powers that be may have juts called the game at halftime to spare the crowd, because after an ugly looking first half, things rarely got much prettier in the second.

(Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images) Good Brandon Jennings hits these. It was Good Jennings Wednesday.

But basketball isn’t always a beauty contest and sometimes it’s just about pushing through tired legs and out-lasting the opposing team.  That seems like a fit way to describe Wednesday night’s game, it wasn’t so much a win for Milwaukee as it was an out-lasting effort in a proverbial scrum of a game.

And when I say this game wasn’t a thing of beauty, I mean right from the start it was hard on the eyes.  The Sixers were handling the ball with little worry on where it was ending up, at one point turning it over or having their shot blocked on five consecutive possessions in the first quarter.  The problem was that the Bucks couldn’t do anything on the other end after causing problems with their defense, thanks to three misses, a block and a turnover themselves at that point.  Milwaukee shot just 30.8 percent in the first quarter, yet led by one after winning the turnover battle 7-2.

Turnovers would end up being the theme all night.  While the game continued to be as sloppy an affair as the Bucks have been apart of all year, Milwaukee did their best to take care of the ball and not let the Sixers get out and run off turnovers.  The Bucks turned it over nine times in all, resulting in just six Philadelphia points, whereas the Sixers coughed it up 18 times, turning into 23 Milwaukee points.  In a one point game in which they lost the rebounding battle by 16, were outshot 46.2-43.5 and missed nine of 21 free-throws, that plus 17 points of turnovers differential was huge. Read more…