Should we panic about Andrew Bogut?
Thursday, September 2nd, 2010Five months after the injury that shelved him for the Bucks first meaningful playoff run in quite some time, we’re still playing the guessing game when it comes to Andrew Bogut’s health. Unlike Scrabble, this game isn’t so fun. And it causes people to start to wonder just what the suits in the ivory towers in St. Francis at the Bucks Headquarters are up to.
What appeared to be a rather simple process of hand surgery, the relocating of a dislocated elbow (this may or may not be so simple) and a month or so of rehab, has turned into another unfortunate Bogut injury problem that threatens the start of the Bucks season. But what was first reported as the area that needed surgery, Bogut’s hand, doesn’t appear to be the problem any more.
When Bogut was first injured, it looked like he’d need a bionic arm to do something as simple as brush his teeth going forward. It was a gruesome, horrific sight that left fans in the stands out of breath and those at home changing the channel. His most serious injury had to be the elbow. Or so we thought. Two days after his fall however, Bogut was having hand surgery, his elbow was dislocated and his wrist was sprained.
A collective, “huh?” was the response. Hand surgery? For a guy who’s elbow was facing the wrong way? Obviously all that weight crashing down onto Bogut’s entire arm would have effects on areas outside of the elbow, but the reported wrist sprain and elbow dislocation seemed less serious than a hand that required surgery. But here we are and it turns out our initial reactions were correct. In an interview (transcribed here) done in August, four months after the initial injury, Bogut doesn’t even mention his hand as an issue, but has bad news on the elbow.
“I’m still not even shooting the basketball,” Bogut said. “I shot the ball a little bit in Europe and got a bunch of fluid down in my elbow so I had to stop shooting. So at the moment I’m just lifting weights and conditioning so we’ll see what happens.” (more…)
Bucks sign Keyon Dooling
Monday, July 19th, 2010The Milwaukee Bucks have signed Keyon Dooling to a two-year-deal to backup Brandon Jennings.
After the departure of Luke Ridnour, backup point guard was the last hole on a roster that’s become incredibly deep this off-season. Heading into his 11th season, the 6-foot-3, 195 pound Dooling brings a different dimension to the point guard spot with size the Bucks did not have last season.
Despite the size advantage Dooling has over Ridnour, he’ll be stepping into some pretty big shoes. Ridnour surprised everyone with by far the best season of his career last year, posting a 17.7 PER while dropping jaws with a shooting percentage line of .478/.381/.909. Of course, that merely boosted Ridnour’s career numbers to .424/.347/.864, so it may be difficult for him to replicate last year’s stellar efforts. And without those shooting percentages, Ridnour becomes considerably less valuable. While he led the Bucks in assist percentage last season and generally showed tons of toughness, his size limits him to having success guarding point guards only.
Dooling likely won’t be able to match what Ridnour did offensively last season, but it stands to reason that he can give the Bucks nearly exactly what Ridnour would give them in a typical Luke Ridnour season. Dooling has a career true shooting percentage of .516 and a career effective field goal percentage of .464. Nearly identical are Ridnour’s career numbers of .512 and .463 respectively.
Essentially, the only area in which one could expect Ridnour to easily outshine Dooling next season is free-throw shooting. Ridnour’s career percentage from the line is .864, while Dooling lags slightly behind at .798. Ridnour helped seal a number of games down the line last season, but with a season of work under Jennings belt and the full season additions of John Salmons and Corey Maggette, it seems safe to say Ridnour wouldn’t be needed at the end of games as much. (more…)
Seeing some Piston in Bucks Title Plan
Friday, July 2nd, 2010If you weren’t sure, you can now be certain: the Milwaukee Bucks think very highly of Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut. Oh, and it certainly doesn’t seem like John Hammond has forgotten where he’s come from.
At least that’s what the last two days seem to indicate.
In the last two days, the Bucks have reportedly come to long term deals with Drew Gooden (five years/$32 million) and John Salmons (five years/$39-44 million). Two players who certainly are good, but are few people’s idea of a third wheel on a championship winning team. I toss the lofty goal of winning a title out there because Hammond has been adamant since arriving in Milwaukee that his goal is to win a title here and nothing else. Milwaukee’s front office doesn’t have dreams of second round playoff exits dancing in their heads. They aren’t looking to max out as very good losers.
But they could be heading down that road if Jennings and Bogut don’t blossom into the stars they expect. (more…)
A Grim View of What Lies Ahead: Hawks 104 – Bucks 96
Tuesday, April 13th, 2010“Snap back to reality, oh there goes gravity.”
- Eminem
There are reasons inside this one big reason why the Bucks had all kinds of problems with the Hawks Monday night, but we all know there is one reason that looms large:
Andrew Bogut in street clothes.
The trickledown effects of Bogut being out appeared so severe Monday night, that I’m not sure I see any way the Bucks could be able to overcome them four times in seven games. Of course, that’s what Milwaukee would need to do if they want to beat the Hawks in a playoff series. And with the Bucks 104-96 loss Monday night, combined with the Heat’s two point victory over Philadelphia, it’s looking awfully likely that the Bucks will now end up playing Atlanta in the series this city wants to avoid.
The games are less fun, the Hawks aren’t very villainy and the Bucks chances seem infinitely lower against Atlanta.
Aside from the obvious reasons (he’s Milwaukee’s best player and best defender), why is Bogut’s absence magnified so greatly against the Hawks? First, it’s the switching. Oh my, the switching. This is one thing that sets Atlanta apart as a defensive team and speaks to their versatility. Any time Milwaukee runs a pick and roll, Atlanta straight up switches it. If Kurt Thomas comes and sets a screen for Brandon Jennings, Al Horford will guard Jennings and Joe Johnson wil guard Thomas. And it doesn’t leave Atlanta in a bad spot. Horford is skilled enough as a perimeter defender that he makes it difficult for Jennings to get by him for an easy hoop.
Coach Scott Skiles wasn’t thrilled with his guards’ efforts in attacking in these situations.
“They’re switching centers onto our guards. A pro guard has got to be able to go by a center and do something. That’s the reality of it. We took way too many jumpshots. It’s something we’ve got to be much better at. Nothing against Al or Zaza (Pachulia), but if those guys are switching onto point guards or two guards, you’ve got to make them pay.”
But with Josh Smith lurking in the shadows behind the big guys on the outside, getting by the bigs and to the rim with success is easier said than done.
“When you’re switching a guy and you got Josh Smith on you, you think you can just take him to the rack but, he’s a guy who can move and he’s a great shot-blocker. It’s kind of real tough, we’re standing a lot on offense, not a lot of ball movement.”
So ball movement may be the answer?
“Well, you can’t just pass and keep going through. You gotta try and attack but, you know, you got somebody under there and guys just keep rotating. I think their length is unbelievable. They’re like an AAU team. “
If only the Bucks had a way to exploit any mismatches they did have on these switches. After all, Mike Bibby was on the court for 34 minutes, isn’t there a better way to attack him on the pick and roll. Ah, that’s where Bogut’s injury comes into play again. Sure, Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Ersan Ilyasova are all much bigger than Bibby, but how often are any of them looking to back a guy down? The last time these teams met, I counted three separate occasions in which LRMAM either got the ball on a swing or grabbed an offensive rebound with Bibby on him and failed to attack. Without Bogut, there are very few easy shots for the Bucks.
No, without Bogut, the Bucks are taking lots of long shots and looking at some long games ahead of them. The reality is, life without Bogut isn’t going to be pretty for the Bucks come playoff time. And this is just the start. (more…)
Injuromics: The Effects of Andrew Bogut’s Injury
Sunday, April 4th, 2010
Can Delfino get it going with Bogut out?
Contrary to popular belief, the Bucks season is not over. Nor does the NBA delay the start of the playoffs until Andrew Bogut is healthy. And don’t expect a first round bye because the Bucks would have been competitive with a healthy Bogut. No, the NBA keeps moving forward every day. So that’s what the Bucks must do.
But how? How can the Bucks get past an injury of this magnitude, at this juncture in the season? Bogut has been the centerpiece for most of what the Bucks have done right, offensively and defensively, in the last two seasons. There simply is no replacing Bogut, especially not with six games left in the regular season. So the Bucks must find a way to remain competitive without being able to replicate everything Bogut gives them.
And naturally, that will put pressure on the remaining members of the Bucks front court. Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova should see the most significant increases in minutes, with Thomas likely stepping in as the new starting center and Ilyasova probably seeing some more time at the five in small ball lineups. But I’m not convinced either of them will have to take anything more unto themselves with Bogut out. Milwaukee isn’t all of a sudden going to slide either Thomas or Ilyasova into Bogut’s spot on the offense and dump the ball into them in the post. It’s just not their game. I expect each to be more productive, especially Ilyasova and I’ll get to that in a minute, but I don’t expect a great deal more usage out of them.
But, as odd as this appears, I do expect more out of Carlos Delfino.
Something’s occurred to me in the last few games. Something that explains an awful lot about why things have gone the way they have for the Bucks this season. Something I only dove into once a reader pointed out that Brandon Jennings stands around the top of the key an awful lot. And it’s something that completely explains why the Bucks have prospered without Michael Redd, but are being sentenced to season execution after the loss of Bogut. (more…)
