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Improvement at the rim could be big for the Bucks

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010
New BucksShooting % at the rimEx-BucksShooting % at the rim
Corey Maggette66.2Dan Gadzuric56
Chris Douglas-Roberts54.7Charlie Bell46.3
Keyon Dooling56.3Luke Ridnour49.2
Drew Gooden55.2Kurt Thomas54.5
Jon Brockman61.6Hakim Warrick61.6

(Percentages from the 2009-10 season)

Scoring was rarely easy for the Milwaukee Bucks last season.  Long droughts were the norm, zones were horror movie scary and the rim was a foreign place they rarely explored.  The long ball was often the weapon of choice though it wasn’t always reliable.  In the end, it worked often enough to keep the Bucks in games and let their defense do the rest.  But Milwaukee did little to boost their outside game this off season, focusing mainly on fours while adding Chris Douglas-Roberts and Corey Maggette, two players not proficient from outside.

So are they in danger of losing their touch from outside and watching their scoring woes grow worse?

Not if they can figure out layups and dunks.  The easiest shots in basketball.  Penetration, offensive rebounds and dishing point guards can create these shots for big men in the NBA.  Unfortunately for last season’s Bucks, finishing at the rim was easier said than done.  Milwaukee was dead last in shooting percentage at the rim, finishing on just 56.3% of their attempts.  So when the Bucks front office spoke at length these past few months about adding length and athleticism (see the Earl Boykins signing), they may as well had been saying they need some guys who can finish. (more…)

How Quickly Things Evolve: Corey Maggette is a Buck

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

From Charles F. Gardner JSOnline:

The Bucks completed a trade late Tuesday afternoon to acquire forward Corey Maggette from the Golden State Warriors in exchange for guard Charlie Bell and center Dan Gadzuric, according to basketball sources.

Gardner has since updated his post to include the Bucks receiving the Warriors 44th pick in Thursday’s draft.

I addressed some of the pluses and minuses of the hypothetical deal that’s suddenly turned very real earlier in my post about a few Bucks rumors. As is the case with many deals in the NBA, this one is financially motivated from the Warriors perspective. Here’s the table I had in my first post which breaks down the three players respective contracts.

2010-112011-122012-13
Corey Maggette9,600,00010,262,06910,924,138
Bucks two worst players11,099,7654,099,920
Bucks Salary Addition-1,499,7656,162,14910,924,138

The eye popping number here is that the Bucks are taking back a contract that has $30,786,207 left on it over three years. However, they’re shipping out contracts that add up to $15,199,685. This leaves the Bucks on the hook for an additional $15,586,522.

The question now is, with regard to their roster now and for the rest of the summer, where does this leave the Bucks?

Well, a friend of mine texted me minutes after the deal was made to let me know he’d heard Maggette already took 10 shots. He failed to mention that he attempted six free throws too. (more…)

Everyone Loves Rumors: Lance Stephenson, Corey Maggette

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Remember the ball movement, 3-point shooting and balanced scoring that thrilled home crowds at the Bradley Center last season?

It may remain just a memory if things play out a certain way in the coming days.

First, Lance Stephenson is reportedly in the mix at the 15th pick for the Bucks and would be even more realistic if the Bucks were to trade for a lower pick (that’s what I call trading down if I haven’t been clear on that) in the first round. Stephenson, um, wasn’t a great passer in his one season at Cincinnati. In fact, he wasn’t much of a passer at all, finishing 11th in the conference in shot percentage and possession percentage. That wouldn’t be all that striking, if not for the fact that Stephenson was a largely average offensive player last season, finishing 75th in the Big East in offensive rating and turning the ball over on nearly 20% of his possessions.

But Stephenson has been one of the most sought after prospect in the United States since he was a 15-year-old. Attitude and criminal concerns have been real problems for him and leave him staring the life of a second round pick in the eye. In the NBA though, talent generally wins out over everything. It’s possible that the Bucks have become enamored enough with Stephenson that they’d be willing to take a chance on an incredibly talented prospect. Chad Ford has this to say in his most recent mock draft:

It’s a long shot but Cincinnati’s Lance Stephenson has impressed in workouts and the Bucks have had their eye on him for a while. It seems like that’s a bit of a reach at 15, but John Hammond rolled the dice on a former high school phenom with a bad rep last year and it paid off. Will he do it again this year?

And now, from one suspected future jacker to a certifiable shot machine, the Bucks have reportedly been kicking the tires on Corey Maggette says Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times. The deal that the Bucks would reportedly like to offer would include Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell for Maggette. Here’s the quick salary breakdowns of the three:

2010-112011-122012-13
Corey Maggette9,600,00010,262,06910,924,138
Bucks two worst players11,099,7654,099,920
Bucks Salary Addition-1,499,7656,162,14910,924,138

Maggette’s strengths? Getting to the free throw line and looking mean come to mind. Maggette’s averaged 7.1 free throws to 11.2 shots per game in his career. He’s one of the league’s best a finishing with contact and annually has a true shooting percentage hovering around or above 58%. Maggette would give the Bucks a lot of what they’d be missing if John Salmons does not return and does it for only $15 million more dollars over the next three seasons than it’s costing Milwaukee to keep Gadzuric and Bell. Maggette’s age, he turns 31 in November, is a concern, but as I’ve earlier said about Salmons, three years seems a reasonable commitment for a player of that age.

But with strengths come weaknesses. Maggette’s primary weakness being his inability to operate much without the ball. Maggette, a player who’s only been on one playoff team and has never made an all-star team, is 51st in the HISTORY of the NBA in usage percentage. Maggette will be shooting or he will be getting to the line, there’s a high probability those things will happen. Milwaukee has to think hard about whether or not they can live with that kind of player at the three. There’s no question he can score effectively, but at what price? Will he alienate teammates with his constant shooting? Even if the other players accept his offensive outputs, will is cause them to unintentionally lose interest on defense if they aren’t involved enough on offense? Maggette is the kind of player that can drive a wedge into a team without even being a locker room problem. Offenses are generally best when teams have a number of productive players that can score and move the ball. The Bucks had players that could move the ball last season, but lacked players who could score.

They may be sacrificing the latter to get the former if these two moves go down and that could just result in a sideways step for a team that seemed on the right track last season.

2010 Haiku Review: Guards

Monday, May 10th, 2010

After a few days off to recharge my battery, I’m back with the final segment of the Haiku Reviews. Coming in the next week will be more on potential free agent targets and a draft page. Stay tuned this week.

GamesStartsPointsField Goal %Three Point %APGAssist %Steals
Brandon Jennings828215.537.137.45.729.61.3
John Salmons302819.946.738.53.315.01.1
Michael Redd181211.935.230.02.213.01.1
Luke Ridnour82010.447.838.14.031.90.7
Charlie Bell71396.538.136.51.59.80.5
Jerry Stackhouse4208.540.834.61.713.40.5
Royal Ivey1801.332.128.00.516.80.5
Jodie Meeks4104.136.218.20.67.20.3

Jodie Meeks

Shots caromed off rim
Motor never stopped running
It paid off later.

Meeks struggled mightily when given opportunities in Milwaukee, but flashed the shooting touch so many saw at Kentucky when given a more significant opportunity in Philadelphia. In baseball, people often discuss how difficult for young players to fill a utility role where they’re asked to pinch hit frequently. They simply don’t get enough reps to be successful. Well, that may have been the case for Meeks. He shot under 30% on threes for the Bucks this season, but hit nearly 40% for Philadelphia and was at 50% in his final month when his playing time ticked up. Meeks may have benefitted the Bucks more by not playing this season or getting time in the D-League. Perhaps they wouldn’t have given up on him so soon if they saw him progressing with more regular time. Milwaukee received a second round pick for Meeks, so they essential have an opportunity to start over next season and hope they’ll get a better fit. (more…)

Australian-Free Bucks Lineups

Monday, April 5th, 2010

So what lineups are the Bucks going to use now with Andrew Bogut out of commission?  Here’s a few of the lineups the Bucks have trotted out most frequently without Bogut this season.

UnitMinutesO-RatingD-RatingDifference
Ridnour-Stackhouse-Delfino-Ilyasova-Thomas 75.3399.33106.8-7.47
 Jennings-Bell-Delfino-Ilyasova-Gadzuric    47.93106.12102.064.06
Ridnour - Stackhouse - Salmons - Ilyasova - Thomas43.0393.8388.755.08
Ridnour - Jennings - Bell - Ilyasova - Thomas25.831349638
Jennings - Bell - Delfino - LRMAM - Ilyasova18.97117.592.525
Ridnour - Delfino - Salmons - Stackhouse - Ilyasova13.4112.51084.5

(A thanks to BasketballValue.com for the numbers, what a great site.)

A few notes:

  • Defensively, a Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova front court seems to be the Bucks best bet.  The lineup that combined the two of them with John Salmons, Jerry Stackhouse and Luke Ridnour had a defensive rating of 88.75, lowest among the seven I listed.
  • Combinations involving Brandon Jennings and Ridnour typically fare well – with or without Bogut.  At least offensively.  As I was writing yesterday, the Bucks create a lot of their offense from the wings in.  When Jennings or Ridnour are on a wing, they can really make use of their ball-handling and penetration skills. In over 25 minutes together when paired with Charlie Bell, Ilyasova and Thomas, their unit was plus 38.  Imagine if Salmons stepped in for Bell on those?  Looking at these numbers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more lineups with those two again.  I suppose that would be “going small” again.
  • With a very small sample size of just 13 minutes, Ilyasova was not a disaster at center.  Playing with Stackhouse at the four (I think primarily against the Hawks) his lineup had a difference of plus 4.5 in terms of offense rating against defense rating.  Whether he could hold up against a larger front line (Boston’s perhaps) is still up in the air
  • Numbers don’t tell the story of Kurt Thomas’ foul problems so much.  When the Bucks last played the Heat without Bogut, Thomas played only 15 minutes due to foul trouble.  Thomas hasn’t had any restrictions on his fouls, but now that he’ll be playing more minutes, he’ll have to be more judicious.  We’ll see how this changes his game.
  • I don’t expect to see much Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at the three.  Playing him with Ilyasova and Thomas gives the Bucks a stout defensive unit, but leaves them with virtually no creativity offensively.  The only way I see that line-up having success offensively would be with Ridnour and Jennings in the back court.  That might be worth visiting.
  • A wild card in this is Darnell Jackson.  He hasn’t been used at all and won’t be available for the playoffs, but he’ll probably get some minutes coming down the stretch.  Whether or not he’ll take away minutes from the Dan Gadzuric and Brezec duo remains to be seen.
  • Speaking of the dynamic duo, where do they fit in the rest of the way?  Brezec hasn’t played enough with any group to have a real sample size, but we can be sure that he’s plodding and not very good.  Gadzuric has some hope, if only because he’s athletic and an okay rebounder.  The Jennings, Bell, Delfino, Ilyasova and Gadzuric unit has a good sample size of nearly a full game and has a positive differential.  If I had to guess, and it’s admittedly hard to predict coach Skiles, I’d say we see roughly 10 minutes a game from Gadzuric the rest of the way.