(Percentages from the 2009-10 season)

Scoring was rarely easy for the Milwaukee Bucks last season.  Long droughts were the norm, zones were horror movie scary and the rim was a foreign place they rarely explored.  The long ball was often the weapon of choice though it wasn’t always reliable.  In the end, it worked often enough to keep the Bucks in games and let their defense do the rest.  But Milwaukee did little to boost their outside game this off season, focusing mainly on fours while adding Chris Douglas-Roberts and Corey Maggette, two players not proficient from outside.

So are they in danger of losing their touch from outside and watching their scoring woes grow worse?

Not if they can figure out layups and dunks.  The easiest shots in basketball.  Penetration, offensive rebounds and dishing point guards can create these shots for big men in the NBA.  Unfortunately for last season’s Bucks, finishing at the rim was easier said than done.  Milwaukee was dead last in shooting percentage at the rim, finishing on just 56.3% of their attempts.  So when the Bucks front office spoke at length these past few months about adding length and athleticism (see the Earl Boykins signing), they may as well had been saying they need some guys who can finish.

So out goes Charlie Bell and his 46.3 at the rim shooting percentage and in comes Maggette converting 66.2% of the time.  So long Dan Gadzuric (56% at the rim) and hello Jon Brockman (61.6).  Suddenly, the Bucks look like they might be able to convert at the basket and in turn boost their true shooting percentage.

TS% is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account 2 and 3-point field goals as well as free throws according to Basketball-Reference.  And the Bucks were among the worst teams in the league with regard to the measure of theirs.  Milwaukee’s TS% was 51.8, fourth worst in the league and by far the worst among the playoff teams.  It’s no wonder that the top five teams in the league were Phoenix (Western Semis), Orlando (Eastern Semis), Cleveland (Eastern Quarters), Utah (Western Quarters) and Boston (Finals).

But improving at the rim doesn’t automatically insure a boost in true shooting percentage.  Milwaukee was a middle of the pack team in terms of 3-point accuracy last season, finishing 12th in the NBA in hitting 35.6% of their threes.  3-point shooting inconsistencies certainly weren’t for a lack of trying, as the Bucks were fifth in the league in attempts per game at 22.1.  The shooting ups and downs were up often enough for the Bucks to claw into the playoffs, so a theory could be, if Milwaukee added all of these efficient finishers at the rim while subtracting their 3-point shooters, they wouldn’t be doing themselves much good.

But the Bucks took care to make sure they kept the majority of their shooters, even if they didn’t bring in any new ones.

Returning Bucks Brandon Jennings, Carlos Delfino and Ersan Ilyasova had the three highest totals of made threes last season, combining for 360 or 55.8% of the Bucks total.  And Milwaukee has reason to believe that Jennings and Ilyasova in particular could improve on their respective performances given their age.  Jennings went through his hot and cold periods, but with a year of experience and idea of what a full season is like he should be able to improve on the 28.3% effort from deep he put forth in his final month of the regular season.  Coach Skiles also said a number of times throughout the season that the team expects Ilyasova to develop into a 37 or 38 percent shooter from three once he adjusts to the distance and full NBA season.  A full season of John Salmons (38.5% from three) won’t hurt their numbers either.

And of course, some improvement at the rim from Jennings would go a long way too.  As my esteemed colleague John Krolik noted on Twitter, Jennings was last in the league in field goal percentage at the rim last season amongst players who played more than 30 minutes per game, finishing on just 42.7% of his attempts.

So while the Bucks lost Luke Ridnour, Bell and Jerry Stackhouse, numbers 4-6 on their 3-point leader board last season, improvement from within and around the hoop should offset those losses.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com

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The Bucks completed a trade late Tuesday afternoon to acquire forward Corey Maggette from the Golden State Warriors in exchange for guard Charlie Bell and center Dan Gadzuric, according to basketball sources.

Gardner has since updated his post to include the Bucks receiving the Warriors 44th pick in Thursday’s draft.

I addressed some of the pluses and minuses of the hypothetical deal that’s suddenly turned very real earlier in my post about a few Bucks rumors. As is the case with many deals in the NBA, this one is financially motivated from the Warriors perspective. Here’s the table I had in my first post which breaks down the three players respective contracts.

The eye popping number here is that the Bucks are taking back a contract that has $30,786,207 left on it over three years. However, they’re shipping out contracts that add up to $15,199,685. This leaves the Bucks on the hook for an additional $15,586,522.

The question now is, with regard to their roster now and for the rest of the summer, where does this leave the Bucks?

Well, a friend of mine texted me minutes after the deal was made to let me know he’d heard Maggette already took 10 shots. He failed to mention that he attempted six free throws too.

All kidding aside, it certainly now seems difficult to envision John Salmons returning to Milwaukee. The reported $28 million that was being offered to Salmons to spend his next four seasons in Milwaukee will now likely be the money sitting in the future pants pockets of Maggette. But the Bucks are freeing up an additional $1.5 million this off-season which seems like it could fall into the hands of Luke Ridnour, someone the Bucks have said they absolutely want back.

As far as Maggette’s role with the Bucks, it seems like something that could fluctuate.

If Brandon Jennings shows up in October looking like the star that it seemed he was certain to be last November, Maggette won’t be this season’s John Salmons. He’ll be running with Jennings, picking up the slack when the offense is stalling and playing a secondary role to Jennings and Andrew Bogut. But if Jennings is still struggling with an inconsistent jump shot and inability to finish inside the paint, Maggette’s role grows. He’ll be more heavily relied on for offense and Jennings, who always says passing is his first love anyway, will be feeding the beast that is Offensive Corey Maggette. And that’s not an awful thing. Maggette was 17th in the NBA last season in points per possession out of isolations according to Synergy Sports. The question that hangs over Maggette like a thunderstorm cloud is whether or not he’ll be able to fit inside an offense that (sometimes unsuccessfully) prided itself on its balance last season. Will he be able to survive and thrive while keeping teammates happy? For now, all we can say is we’ll see.

But here in Milwaukee, one gets the sense that Coach Scott Skiles would bench Wilt Chamberlin himself if he didn’t feel like he was cutting it on the defensive end. So regardless of what’s going on offensively with Maggette, it’s crucial for him to hold up defensively if he wants to earn time. And this is where he may struggle. I don’t know for a fact whether or not Maggette is a good or bad defender, numbers alone can’t tell you that. And in playing in the chaos that was Don Nelson’s system in which he was occasionally a center, sometimes a power forward and always without much help, numbers suffer. But his numbers didn’t hold a candle to Milwaukee’s primary small forward last season Carlos Delfino. Against Delfino last season, opponents shot 38.8%. Against Maggette they shot 46.6%. Their respective defensive ratings were 103 and 113 and if you’re into win shares, Delfino had 3.7 defensive win shares last season while Maggette had just .7.

Some suggested that Delfino’s versatility and defense were a quietly huge factor in the Bucks success last season. When I spoke with Dave Berri last season, his numbers suggested that after Andrew Bogut, Delfino had played better than any other Bucks player. Replacing the majority of his minutes with Maggette’s, if that’s what the Bucks will be doing, could prove detrimental from a defensive and “little things” standpoint. But since Maggette is essentially sliding into John Salmons’ roster spot (assuming that’s the case) it’s possible that Delfino could be shifting down to the two guard position, leaving the Bucks less susceptible to losing that production.

At this point, there are a ton of questions to still be answered with regard to this trade and very few of them will actually be answered until next season is well underway. I urge everyone to refrain from overreacting. The Bucks 2010-11 season is not over yet, it’s not a championship and there is still a lot of time left this off-season for the roster to take a new shape. Maggette may not have been a good fit in terms of producing wins and playoff appearances in Los Angeles or Golden State, but we aren’t exactly talking about model organizations there. Perhaps this is just the sort of trade Maggette’s needed to jump start his career and turn him from proverbial loser that puts up numbers, to an important part of a winning team. See Randolph, Zach last season (and ignore the recent drug lord stuff). This certainly may shift Milwaukee’s emphasis further into power forward territory come June 24th’s draft, but as we saw a few years ago with Joe Alexander’s arrival immediately after Richard Jefferson’s, this could have no impact at all on the draft.

Either way, thing have certainly gotten more interesting in Milwaukee today.

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It may remain just a memory if things play out a certain way in the coming days.

First, Lance Stephenson is reportedly in the mix at the 15th pick for the Bucks and would be even more realistic if the Bucks were to trade for a lower pick (that’s what I call trading down if I haven’t been clear on that) in the first round. Stephenson, um, wasn’t a great passer in his one season at Cincinnati. In fact, he wasn’t much of a passer at all, finishing 11th in the conference in shot percentage and possession percentage. That wouldn’t be all that striking, if not for the fact that Stephenson was a largely average offensive player last season, finishing 75th in the Big East in offensive rating and turning the ball over on nearly 20% of his possessions.

But Stephenson has been one of the most sought after prospect in the United States since he was a 15-year-old. Attitude and criminal concerns have been real problems for him and leave him staring the life of a second round pick in the eye. In the NBA though, talent generally wins out over everything. It’s possible that the Bucks have become enamored enough with Stephenson that they’d be willing to take a chance on an incredibly talented prospect. Chad Ford has this to say in his most recent mock draft:

It’s a long shot but Cincinnati’s Lance Stephenson has impressed in workouts and the Bucks have had their eye on him for a while. It seems like that’s a bit of a reach at 15, but John Hammond rolled the dice on a former high school phenom with a bad rep last year and it paid off. Will he do it again this year?

And now, from one suspected future jacker to a certifiable shot machine, the Bucks have reportedly been kicking the tires on Corey Maggette says Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times. The deal that the Bucks would reportedly like to offer would include Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell for Maggette. Here’s the quick salary breakdowns of the three:

Maggette’s strengths? Getting to the free throw line and looking mean come to mind. Maggette’s averaged 7.1 free throws to 11.2 shots per game in his career. He’s one of the league’s best a finishing with contact and annually has a true shooting percentage hovering around or above 58%. Maggette would give the Bucks a lot of what they’d be missing if John Salmons does not return and does it for only $15 million more dollars over the next three seasons than it’s costing Milwaukee to keep Gadzuric and Bell. Maggette’s age, he turns 31 in November, is a concern, but as I’ve earlier said about Salmons, three years seems a reasonable commitment for a player of that age.

But with strengths come weaknesses. Maggette’s primary weakness being his inability to operate much without the ball. Maggette, a player who’s only been on one playoff team and has never made an all-star team, is 51st in the HISTORY of the NBA in usage percentage. Maggette will be shooting or he will be getting to the line, there’s a high probability those things will happen. Milwaukee has to think hard about whether or not they can live with that kind of player at the three. There’s no question he can score effectively, but at what price? Will he alienate teammates with his constant shooting? Even if the other players accept his offensive outputs, will is cause them to unintentionally lose interest on defense if they aren’t involved enough on offense? Maggette is the kind of player that can drive a wedge into a team without even being a locker room problem. Offenses are generally best when teams have a number of productive players that can score and move the ball. The Bucks had players that could move the ball last season, but lacked players who could score.

They may be sacrificing the latter to get the former if these two moves go down and that could just result in a sideways step for a team that seemed on the right track last season.

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Jodie Meeks

Shots caromed off rim
Motor never stopped running
It paid off later.

Meeks struggled mightily when given opportunities in Milwaukee, but flashed the shooting touch so many saw at Kentucky when given a more significant opportunity in Philadelphia. In baseball, people often discuss how difficult for young players to fill a utility role where they’re asked to pinch hit frequently. They simply don’t get enough reps to be successful. Well, that may have been the case for Meeks. He shot under 30% on threes for the Bucks this season, but hit nearly 40% for Philadelphia and was at 50% in his final month when his playing time ticked up. Meeks may have benefitted the Bucks more by not playing this season or getting time in the D-League. Perhaps they wouldn’t have given up on him so soon if they saw him progressing with more regular time. Milwaukee received a second round pick for Meeks, so they essential have an opportunity to start over next season and hope they’ll get a better fit.

Royal Ivey

Accepting limits
Can prolong players’ careers.
Meet Royal Ivey

Ivey is a prototypical third point guard. When he enters the game, he defends hard and doesn’t force anything. I challenge anyone to provide proof that Ivey has ever complained about his role on a team. He understands why he’s around and how he’ll be used. That’s what teams are looking for at the end of their bench. That’s why Ivey has stuck around as long as he has. Soon he’ll be that good veteran that provides good influence on younger players and that will add a few more years onto his career.

Charlie Bell

Opportunity.
Knocked early and often. He
never answered door.

Bell didn’t have a very productive year before earning his way off the active list for the Bucks final game this season. Bell averaged over 30 minutes per game in November and turned in one manageable performance after the next. His strengths were clear: spot-up shooting and hustle. His weaknesses were too: attacking the basket and guarding larger guards. Unfortunately for Bell, his weaknesses were on display more frequently than his strengths. Milwaukee badly needed a larger two guard and anyone who could attack the basket. After John Salmons and Jerry Stackhouse arrived to answer those needs, Bell’s minutes were no longer available. Bell has always come off as a good guy, but that armor was dented when he commented about his last game suspension, “I wasn’t going to play anyway.” That’s not the sort of attitude that typically meshes well with hard head coach Scott Skiles. Bell has two years left on his contract and may be difficult to move this off-season. His situation bears watching.

Luke Ridnour

Surprise everyone!
Suddenly a shooting star
With scrap to spare too.

Ridnour had never shot better than 43% from the field before this season and never better than 35% of his threes. So naturally he spent a majority of the season flirting with the hallowed 50/40/90 mark, finally finishing at 47.8 and 38.1 respectively. What happened for Ridnour at age 28? It’s tough to say. Playing off the ball may have helped and fewer minutes could have been beneficial too. Whatever the case may be, Ridnour has himself positioned nicely as a top back up point guard heading into free agency this off-season. He’ll surely need to take a pay cut from the $6 million he made this past season, but probably not as substantial a cut as he was looking at two years ago. Milwaukee will likely look to find a way to bring him back at a discounted rate next season as a nice compliment to Brandon Jennings.

Jerry Stackhouse

Like his teammates did,
Turnovers followed him around.
He’s still a leader.

Stackhouse’s contributions were probably felt a little more in the huddle and the locker room than they were on the court. He was a moderately productive player, struggling with his shooting often and often turning the ball over. He was a steadying influence though and Coach Skiles often talked about how Stackhouse was not afraid to get on teammates who were trying to do too much or not moving the ball enough. Stackhouse could have got to the line a little more and shot a better percentage, but he did his job for the most part. He’d probably be better off in an even more limited role next season, especially if he’s looking to play the whole season.

Michael Redd

Another tough fall
More long rehab lies ahead
Career lies behind.

Let’s be honest: Michael Redd wasn’t good this past season. You’ll hear lots of people defending his efforts, saying he didn’t have a chance to fit in and he was rounding into form and all of that, but the numbers don’t lie.  Redd shot a miserable 35% from the field, 30% from three and 71% from the line. He rarely appeared to fit in and the games in which he did play well, the Bucks typically lost. His athleticism was clearly sapped and he was never able to get in shape. The knee injury of two years ago was taking its toll on Redd all season and this next one will likely take even longer to rebound from. Realistically, Redd won’t be able to produce with any consistency next season. If Milwaukee does trot him out there, they’re probably doing him and the team a disservice.

And that sucks, because Redd has been the model employee for the Bucks. He works hard, he never gets in to trouble and he’s been a positive member of the community. Off the court, Redd is everything a franchise wants. On the court? Milwaukee is much better off without him. If Redd doesn’t play next season, insurance covers the majority of his contract and he becomes a much more attractive trade commodity. If the Bucks are willing to take on a player with two or three years left on his deal, Redd could become an attractive salary dump for a team looking to start over, insured deal or not.

John Salmons

Trade deadline godsend.
Played his way to a bigger deal,
Could be overpaid.

Salmons was everything the Bucks had lacked earlier in the season and more. He attacked the hoop. He defended bigger guards with vigor. He kicked out on his drives. He hit three point shots and he was consistent. The consistency Salmons brought to the table was key. The Bucks went through so many offensive slumps this season, having one player who could get to the free throw line and break slumps did wonders for their offense. Sure, suddenly Salmons lost his will to attack the hoop in the last few games of the playoffs and his three point shot abandoned him, but he still gave Milwaukee 34 solid games.

Does that make him worth an addition four years of salary though? The Journal-Sentinel has reported that Milwaukee has been in discussions about locking Salmons up for a total of four more seasons worth $27 million, which will mean Salmons will be a Bucks player earning around $7 million when he’s 34 years old. Michael Redd has had injuries that have aged him some, but remember, he’s only 30. Is it wise for the Bucks to lock up a guy like Salmons, who likely won’t be getting much better, for that much money through that age? It’s a tough call.

Brandon Jennings

First scoring always,
Prolonged slumps soon followed. His
Flash breathed life.

From the moment Jennings hopped out from backstage on draft night, he’s been a little different. Milwaukee has not had such a character in many many years and he did his part to perform CPR on a franchise that’s been struggling when he dropped in 55 points in the Bradley Center in just his 7th game. Defensively, Jennings got better all year long and offensively he was dynamic in the playoffs. Jennings has to improve his mid-range game in the off-season, but he left Milwaukee feeling like all he wants to do every day is get a little better. I’ve never been so excited about seeing a player come back after his rookie season so I can see how much he’s improved. But that’s how Jennings has most of Milwaukee feeling. His confidence and will to win is something Milwaukee appears ready to hang their hat on for the next five years and hopefully much longer.

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(A thanks to BasketballValue.com for the numbers, what a great site.)

A few notes:

• Defensively, a Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova front court seems to be the Bucks best bet.  The lineup that combined the two of them with John Salmons, Jerry Stackhouse and Luke Ridnour had a defensive rating of 88.75, lowest among the seven I listed.

• Combinations involving Brandon Jennings and Ridnour typically fare well – with or without Bogut.  At least offensively.  As I was writing yesterday, the Bucks create a lot of their offense from the wings in.  When Jennings or Ridnour are on a wing, they can really make use of their ball-handling and penetration skills. In over 25 minutes together when paired with Charlie Bell, Ilyasova and Thomas, their unit was plus 38.  Imagine if Salmons stepped in for Bell on those?  Looking at these numbers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more lineups with those two again.  I suppose that would be “going small” again.

• With a very small sample size of just 13 minutes, Ilyasova was not a disaster at center.  Playing with Stackhouse at the four (I think primarily against the Hawks) his lineup had a difference of plus 4.5 in terms of offense rating against defense rating.  Whether he could hold up against a larger front line (Boston’s perhaps) is still up in the air

• Numbers don’t tell the story of Kurt Thomas’ foul problems so much.  When the Bucks last played the Heat without Bogut, Thomas played only 15 minutes due to foul trouble.  Thomas hasn’t had any restrictions on his fouls, but now that he’ll be playing more minutes, he’ll have to be more judicious.  We’ll see how this changes his game.

• I don’t expect to see much Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at the three.  Playing him with Ilyasova and Thomas gives the Bucks a stout defensive unit, but leaves them with virtually no creativity offensively.  The only way I see that line-up having success offensively would be with Ridnour and Jennings in the back court.  That might be worth visiting.

• A wild card in this is Darnell Jackson.  He hasn’t been used at all and won’t be available for the playoffs, but he’ll probably get some minutes coming down the stretch.  Whether or not he’ll take away minutes from the Dan Gadzuric and Brezec duo remains to be seen.

• Speaking of the dynamic duo, where do they fit in the rest of the way?  Brezec hasn’t played enough with any group to have a real sample size, but we can be sure that he’s plodding and not very good.  Gadzuric has some hope, if only because he’s athletic and an okay rebounder.  The Jennings, Bell, Delfino, Ilyasova and Gadzuric unit has a good sample size of nearly a full game and has a positive differential.  If I had to guess, and it’s admittedly hard to predict coach Skiles, I’d say we see roughly 10 minutes a game from Gadzuric the rest of the way.

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(Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images) Hak' = Dunk

New York’s basketball team isn’t typically apart of my basketball viewing schedule.  They aren’t on national television very often and when they are I tend to look the other way.  I’m not big on teams that have gutted their roster in order to pursue free agents.    While I generally liked Mike D’Antoni’s Suns teams, I know the Knicks can’t be as efficient, mainly because they have few shooters and even less competent point guards.  Plus they play even less defense than those Suns teams did.  There’s a word that I can’t think of right now that would describe them aptly I assumed, but I had little proof since I never watched them.  But I had high hopes for the Bucks on Friday night coming into their game on Broadway.

Then Andrew Bogut got hurt.  So I went from hopeful that the Bucks would be able to leave the Big Apple with a win, to downtrodden that Bogut’s injury might be more than a migraine.  My thought process went something like this:

Migraine?  What?  He’s never had migraines before.  Didn’t he just take a charge a minute or two ago?  Is this another back injury?  Will we see Bogut again this season?  Is his career in jeopardy?

So that may have been an overreaction.  Call me a little snake bit after years of injury problems that seem to never end and spread across the roster.  Bogut walked out fine, no limp, no slouch, no teammates dragging his body to the locker room, so I’ll operate going forward under the assumption that all is well.  As for Friday night’s game, I thought of the word I was looking for and it isn’t even very fancy.  Simply put, the Knicks are defenseless.

Offense

There was lots and lots of offense in this one, specifically from Brandon Jennings, though little of it came early in the game.  A 1-9 start probably was predictable given the circumstances coming into this game – the often inaccurate Jennings’ first trip to the big city of New York, a team that passed on him quite famously now.  What was unpredictable though, and delightful actually, was the way Jennings would rebound after the poor start.  With Bogut out, Jennings took a very active role in the offense and finished the game hitting seven of his next 14 shots.  8-23 won’t change a lot of the opinions on Jennings’ abilities offensively, but those wins the Bucks keep getting might.  Jennings finished the game with 22 points and eight assists against just two turnovers.  That’ll do.

• There would have been lots of “Turkish Thunder” chants out of Squad Six had this game happened at the Bradley Center, because Ersan Ilyasova subbed in wonderfully for Andrew Bogut.  25 points and nine rebounds on a very shiny 10-18 shooting line.  Ersa Major hit two of his three three-point attempts and even made a free-throw near the end of the game!  He was his typical pesky self, tipping balls and drawing charges in other facets of the game, the biggest difference was that he was just making his open shots.  It’s just that simple.

• Hakim Warrick: Dunks.

• The ever-giving New York defense allowed the Bucks to shoot 47.8 percent and 41.7 percent on three’s.  Charlie Bell was 3-4, Carlos Delfino was 2-6 and Jennings was 2-7.  Delfino’s line was particularly dazzling, as he tossed in nine rebounds, six assists and three steals on top of his 13 points.  Team efforts win games for the Bucks, especially with Bogut out.

Defense

I’m not going to lie; I can’t see David Lee as an all-star.  32 points and 15 rebounds look terrific, but every Buck and their mom was getting baskets inside.  The Bucks shot 62.9 percent at the rim Friday which was considerably better than the 45 percent they shot on Tuesday in Orlando.  A lot of Orlando’s success had to do with the all-star they had playing defense inside.  A lot of New York’s struggles are their system and generally lack of effort on defense, but some of it is David Lee being a non-factor taking charges or blocking shots.  Granted, he’s probably a power forward playing center, so I shouldn’t toss all the blame on him, but he’s got to do a little more on defense if he ever wants to get to the next level.

• Without Bogut, the Bucks weren’t able to force as many turnovers as they’d like, but this game was more about who could score more efficiently anyway.  The key to the Bucks defense Friday was doing their best to sloppy up the Knicks already helter-skelter attack and run out at shooters.  They held the Knicks to a worse shooting percentage then they shot themselves and that’s a great way to beat the Knicks.

Final Thoughts

A winning road trip for the Milwaukee Bucks, what a novel concept.  Yes, the road trip was three games and one was in Miami and another in New York, but road wins are road wins.  The Bucks may not have that signature road win Scott Skiles has been looking for, but, sitting just a game back of Miami for the eighth seed with the tiebreaker in hand the Bucks can feel pretty good coming home today.  With Indiana awaiting them at the Bradley Center on Brandon Jennings bobblehead night, the easily scheduled month of February still looks promising for the Bucks.

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In front of what appeared to be only close friends and relatives of both teams, it was very clear that the Miami Heat can be boiled down to two parts: Dwyane Wade and a bunch of guys.  Just as clear Monday night was that the Bucks continue their recent uptick in play and are looking more and more like a team that has begun to figure things out.  I’ve been contesting that the Bucks have looked like a much better team since an overtime loss on Martin Luther King Jr. Day at Houston and the numbers don’t lie.

In the eight games starting with the loss at Houston, the Bucks are 5-3 with a +7.5 scoring margin.  One of the biggest reasons for the recent Bucks miniature surge has simply been consistent offense.  All season long the Bucks have played stifling defense, but have struggled to put the ball through the rim on the other end.  Andrew Bogut has averaged 20.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game, but the most important statistic for Bogut has been his 68 percent shooting.  All year he’s been pretty good for the Bucks, but he’s only been hitting around half it shots, which is a little below average for a seven-footer as talented as he.  The 68 percent shooting provides the Bucks a solid base for their attack.

(Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images) This is a confident bunch right here. Except Jodie Meeks, he's just kind of there.

Monday night, Bogut was again the focal point for the Bucks.  After missing their first 10 shots, the Bucks were able to find Bogut for a few easy ones to get them going.  Bogut finished the first quarter with eight, the Bucks finished the quarter with the lead and the Heat were just about finished, as they made only cursory runs the rest of the way.  I guess that’s what happens when Wade has a bad night, because Milwaukee has now seen D-Wade twice this year when he’s been off and the rest of the Heat haven’t responded kindly to their stars struggles.

Offense

After the eight point first quarter, Bogut did not let up.  He finished the evening with 22 points and 11 rebounds on 10-13 shooting.  As has been the case in nearly all of the Bucks wins lately though, it was not a one man show.

• Carlos Delfino continued to make my earlier near constant complaining about him look ill informed and foolish by chipping in 16 more points and 10 more rebounds.  As long as I’m rehashing the last eight games, let me give you Delfino’s numbers: 15.8 points and 8.1 boards on 49 percent shooting.  The refrain on Delfino is that he can do a lot of things well, but not one so well as to make him stand out, but lately he’s taken each thing he does well and brought up to another level.  His shooting has been better, he’s finished around the rim, he’s been getting some steals and he’s been rebounding incredibly well for a small forward.  Had this Carlos Delfino been playing for the Bucks all year, I have no doubts they’d be at or above .500.  Consistency was a struggle for Delfino in the first half, but somehow he’s figured it out in half two of this season.

• Rim.  That’s the word I’d say if I was doing word association with Hakim Warrick. Warrick had two dunks that helped energize a slow starting Bucks team and his own offensive game on Monday.  After the dunks it was clear Hak’ was kind of feeling it, as he displayed a nice little pivot and jab-step game that I hadn’t seen before which eventually led to a jumper.  The straight “I want to rip the rim off right now” dunks are what Hak’s best for though.  Those are fun.

• There was a brief moment of panic for me while watching this one though, I’ll admit that.  It looked like the Heat may have called up to Toronto and asked them what they did to Milwaukee in the fourth quarter last week to shut them down so bad.  Naturally, Toronto would have informed the Heat that their zone stifled the Bucks and errant jumpers rained from every which way.  The Heat went into a zone and had the game down to 11 at one point.  Then Charlie Bell got nasty and hit a couple threes and the Bucks had breathing room again.  Sometimes it just boils down to hitting shots, and the Bucks were able to do that for most of the evening Monday.

Defense

It’s not easy to win when you shoot 36.4 percent and the Bucks know that as well as any team in the league, so it’s good to see the opposition struggling for once.  Miami has turned in as brutal a two game performance as I’ve seen out of any opponent the Bucks have had in years.

• These two games were a great lesson on how nice it is to have a real legitimate star player on your team.  Miami would be the New Jersey Nets without Dwyane Wade and there is an overwhelming amount of evidence supporting that claim in these two efforts, right down to the pathetic attendance.  With Wade though, they are eighth in the East, which probably says as much about the East as it does about how good Wade is.

Final Thoughts

Coach Scott Skiles has been looking for a “signature” road win for some time.  He thought they had one in Dallas and that didn’t quite work out.  They had a shot in Toronto too, but that didn’t quite work out either.  So getting a road win against the team directly in front of them in the Eastern Conference is nice, but may not classify as the signature he was looking for.  You know what would qualify for sure?  A win in Orlando.  That would be a big, fat John Hancock of a signature road win, and with the way the Bucks have played lately, can’t be ruled out just yet.  Check back with me after the first half tomorrow and I may be singing a different tune, but the Bucks look like they’ll be bringing it for a while.

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(There’s a synopsis of the whole thing at the end if you don’t want to wade through it all.  Get it, wade through? Ah, I do what I can.)

(Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images) Wade did not have a happy (second) homecoming this year.

1-1: Wade catches it coming off a Jermaine O’Neal screen and then gets another screen from O’Neal off the dribble.  He’s able to take it right a back pedaling Andrew Bogut and hit a floater without a hand in his face.  When Wade’s isolated against Bogut like that it’s obviously not going to favor the Bucks very often.  Bogut isn’t quick enough with his hands to be able to contest a Wade shot without being susceptible to a fake and dunk combo.

1-2: Off a reload on an offensive board by Joel Anthony, Wade gets it at the top of the key and waits for a screen from O’Neal to attack.  Actually, “waits for a screen” isn’t quite accurate, as he takes off too early and O’Neal can’t connect with Charlie Bell on the screen.  Wade pulls up for a three as Bogut waits at the free-throw line and Bell dives back in to get his hand in Wade’s face.  This is absolutely the shot the Bucks can live without out of a player like D-Wade: a pull-up, semi-contested three with 14 seconds on the shot-clock. Clang.

1-2 FTs: Fouled on a fastbreak.

1-3: Wade brings it up the court and explodes for the first time all evening off another O’Neal screen.  He takes it right at Bogut in the paint.  Bogut kept his hands high and tried to just make the shot difficult rather than attempt a block and he was successful.  Wade missed a tough shot after contorting his body with Ersan Ilyasova coming over to provide additional support.  With both of them focusing on him, the rebound was available and Wade grabbed it.  He laid it off for O’Neal under the hoop where he was waiting for an easy shot and one.

1-4: After a timeout, Rafer Alston gets the inbound pass and dribbles to the left wing where he then finds Wade on top.  It’s isolation for Wade against Charlie Bell.  Wade dribbled into Bell and then steps back for a fadeaway jumper from around the elbow.  Bell contested and it didn’t fall.  This is a shot Wade can hit, but it’s certainly not easy.

2-5: Wade got it on an exchange from Alston on the left side and then came off two screens, one from Anthony and another from O’Neal again.  Anthony’s screen was a whiff, but O’Neal made very solid contact with Bell and Wade was able to get free.  He went right at Bogut in the paint once again and connected on a nine-foot floater.  Bogut was again a little paralyzed, it’s tough for him to get out at Wade because there’s such a great risk that he’ll blow by for a layup.

2-6: Wade posted up Bell way out on the perimeter and got the catch a step inside the three-point line.  He gave Bell a hard jab step that has to be respected with as much respect anyone can respect anything due to Wade’s nasty first step.  The pivot caused Bell to stumble and left Wade with an open look, but he just couldn’t hit the shot.  For good measure Wade fell down after the shot and I can’t tell how much contact there was, but it didn’t look like much.

2-7: Wade popped right back up and got the kickout from Anthony who grabbed the offensive board.  Bell had already left the picture and busted out since Wade was on the ground so Wade gets a wide-open three-point look.  He still can’t connect.

3-4 FTs: On a straight post up, Wade shrugs off a couple soft doubles, first from Brandon Jennings and then from Carlos Delfino and has Bell in the paint.  Not much Bell can do against Wade there and as Wade jumps for a shot he’ll likely make, Bell hacks him and makes him earn them at the line.  His strength mismatch with Bell was evident on this one and Bell felt like Wade knocked him out of the way with his body, but that didn’t seem to be the case.

2-8: Wade posts up Delfino on the outside after Bell leaves the game.  Wade looks to spin off Delfino first to the baseline and then to the middle, but doesn’t.  It looks like his look to the baseline may have been him measuring up a shot.  Delfino uses his body to keep Wade from getting too deep and then pokes at the ball a few times.  Delfino was very active on this possession and even initially did a good job trying to be physical in denying Wade the ball.  Eventually Wade attempts a fadeaway 16-footer from the baseline that doesn’t connect, another shot the Bucks will live with.

3-9: After Joel Anthony knocks out a missed shot to Udonis Haslem at halfcourt, Haslem finds Quentin Richardson on the right wing.  Richardson attacks and sees Wade cutting to the middle.  Bogut is preoccupied stopping the ball so he’s unable to get to Wade who shoots upon catching in the middle of the paint.  Another basket inside ten feet for Wade.

3-10: Wade is going around a screen from O’Neal off the ball, but sees Bellfino read it so he flares out to the corner.  Bell gets to him on a pump-fake and closes out hard enough that Wade can get by him.  After one dribble Wade pulls up for a floater, but Kurt Thomas does a great job to contest him with O’Neal sitting outside by himself18-feet from the hoop.  Thomas had to cut off Wade and the price was leaving O’Neal.  Fortunately Wade doesn’t look to him and misses a contested shot over Thomas.

FTs 5-6: Wade comes off a screen and catches outside the arc.  He gets a screen from Joel Anthony and attacks straight at Bogut who meets him just outside the charge circle.  Wade crashes into Bogut as he tosses a shot at the hoop.  It’s impressive how Wade’s able to adjust his body after contact and make it look like he was trying to shoot.  It seemed clear that he was just getting into the paint to crash into someone, but then once he hits Bogut he makes it look like he actually was attempting a shot.  That type of body control is absurd.  Anyway, Bogut’s set, his upper body is in position and it’s still a block on him and two freebies for Wade.

4-11: Wade gets it on the left wing and shakes Bell off him just a bit with a behind the back move.  He gets to the elbow and has Bogut awaiting him not sure if he’s going to keep going or pull-up.  These are the situations in which Wade has flourished in this game.  Wade pulls up with Bell coming from behind and Bogut in front of him and nails the jumper from just inside the paint.

Offensive foul: Wade is waiting for a catch at the top of the key after bumping with Bogut a few times.  Bell is doing his best to pester Wade and Wade gets caught extending the arm that Bell’s hanging off.  Bell goes down and the ball goes to Milwaukee, offensive foul Dwyane Wade.

4-12: Wade gets free of Bell with the help of a semi-screen from Haslem outside the three-point line.  He penetrates to the right elbow and then his drive plateaus.  There are four Bucks in the paint and it seems like Wade hesitates when he sees this.  He takes another dribble and shoots a free-throw line mini-fadeaway jumper over a jumping Hakim Warrick with no success.

4-13: After a near turnover the Heat are scrambling and find Wade posting up Bell with three seconds left on the shot clock.  Wade has to loft a very tough 19-foot fadeaway jumper over Bell and he draws nothing but air as the shot clock expires.

4-14: Wade gets it on top and eyes up Bell.  He takes a few dribbles between the legs to get his rhythm and shoots a contested three to no avail.

5-15: Bogut turns it over and O’Neal outlets to Wade on the left sideline.  Wade gets matched up with Bogut one on one outside the arc.  Bogut keeps his distance and seems okay with letting Wade get a jump-shot.  Wade eyes Bogut up not unlike he did Bell on the previous possession and then attacks, going right into Bogut.  There is some contact and Bogut is knocked back a step, just enough for Wade to hit a 14-footer a step inside the paint.

TECHNICAL FOUL: Wade catches at the left elbow and is stripped by a reaching Bogut.  D-Wade isn’t feeling it and contests that Bogut got him on the arm.  He doesn’t let it go through the next possession and is issued a technical foul.

6-16: Wade gets a screen from Haslem on top and blows by Ersan Ilyasova.  Bogut doesn’t react in time and Wade splits Bogut and Ersan with a dunk, his first of the night.  That was as aggressive as he’d been and probably had something to do with the technical he just received.  He followed that with his fourth foul though.

6-17: Coming off a screen, Wade catches at the elbow and misses a contested floater in the lane.  Bogut came out towards him with his hands high, as it was clear he wasn’t keeping this one on the ground to get by anyone.

Offensive Foul: Wade posts up and then runs a pick and pop with Jermaine O’Neal.  As O’Neal pops Wade is penetrating and Ilyasova slips in front of him drawing the charge and Wade’s fifth foul.  This wasn’t a very good call and seemed a little momentum based.

FTs 6-8: Wade gets by a reaching Delfino and Bogut meets him just outside the charge zone again.  Bogut seems to get happy feet and doesn’t really establish himself, as he’s backing up while Wade’s coming at him.  Wade’s in control and Bogut’s moving a little too much, so the call goes to Miami.

FTs 7-10: Wade’s strides are really freaking long.  He changes direction so quickly that when he has a head of steam going and Bogut isn’t directly at the basket it is a complete mismatch in Wade’s favor..  Wade gets past Bogut just a little bit and Bogut hacks Wade going towards the hoop on a block attempt.

FTs 9-12: After a screen from Jermaine O’Neal on top, Wade blows right past Hakim Warrick and finds Brandon Jennings waiting for him.  Bogut had to come out with his fifth foul after the last foul so the Bucks were playing Warrick and Ilyasova together in the front court, which leaves them without shot-blocking.  The Heat cleared out their power and small forwards to open things up in the middle even more. We all know Jennings isn’t stopping anyone, much less D-Wade and he resorts to grabbing Wade’s arm as he goes up for a layup.  On the plus side, it was a very hard foul and left Wade with almost no chance at making the shot.  That’s the kind of foul you like to see from Jennings.

"Novak's Better"

Note: At this point Wade steps up to the line and starts to chuckle as he looks at Squad Six.  Why?  “Novak’s Better” was the chant according to informed sources.  Bravo Squad Six.  I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many players react to a section of the crowd like everyone has been reacting to Squad Six this year, I couldn’t be any more impressed by them.

6-18: Wade got an open look at a three after a screen from Haslem lost Charlie Bell at mid-court.  Wade just couldn’t hit, as was the case most of the night.

6-19: Garbage time three misses.

6-20: Garbage time three misses.

Synopsis Time:

So, that was a lot.  I understand if you don’t want to go through with reading about every single one of D-Wade’s shot attempts from Saturday night and how the Bucks defended them, so I’ll go synopsis here.  Essentially, when the Bucks were able to force Wade to be indecisive or settle for fadeaway jumpers, they had success.  When Wade seemed to know what he wanted to do before he set out to do it, he was able to set the Bucks up as he wanted and then get a good look.  On the floaters Wade was hitting, it looked as though he was intent on shooting those the whole time, but the Bucks still had to respect his driving skills.

The dangerous thing about Wade is when he starts hitting.  If Wade is connecting on the fall away jumpers or the “what do I want to do now that I’m in the air” shots, he’s nearly unguardable.  But the Bucks played the percentages Saturday night and made Wade take a lot of difficult shots.  It was a complete team effort on Wade and it’ll have to be again if they want to have any success on Monday.

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Enjoy.

Milwaukee Bucks (16-23)

(Probable) Inactives: Francisco Elson and Joe Alexander

vs.

Toronto Raptors (21-21)

(Probable) Inactives: Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Reggie Evans

Dates: 1/20/2010 & 1/22/2010

Time: 7:00 (CST) & 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin & None (Boooo)

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Jarrett Jack

Jennings is coming off a statistically aesthetically pleasing game against the Rockets.  This is no small feat, as he hasn’t done a lot of fine box score work in the past month or two.   It will be fun to see how he performs against a larger guard coming off a strong game.  Jack checks in at 6′3, 202 pounds and has taken the reigns as the starting point guard in Toronto after the team’s upswing under his guidance with Jose Calderon out for a while in the last two months.  Since the start of December, Jack has been up around 50 percent shooting and hitting nearly 40 percent of his threes.  He also provides more defense than Calderon, who has never been known as a lockdown defender at the point.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. DeMar Derozan

Bell may be hearing footsteps and if he’s not now he could be soon.  When Scott Skiles was first asked about Jerry Stackhouse he said he’d be active immediately and was brought here to play.  Now, he didn’t say Stackhouse would be starting or anything like that, but given the meager production the Bucks have gotten out of their two guards and Bell’s in and out of the rotation leaps this year, who knows what will happen by next or even this weeks’ end.  When Bell is playing to his strengths (catching and shooting and not dribbling the ball) and afforded a good match-up (teams with small shooting guards or the slower type if they are sizable) he can be effective.  The problem is, there aren’t a lot of opportunities for him to flourish on both sides of the ball for lots of minutes.  DeRozan is a difficult match-up for Bell, athletic, long and attacking when he’s involved.  This could prove difficult for Bell.

Advantage: Raptors

Small Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Hedo Turkoglu

Much like most of the Raptors, Turkoglu struggled mightily against the Bucks in the Raptors last venture to the Bradley Center in early December.  I like to attribute at least some of those struggles to LRMAM, who may be the perfect defensive counterpart for Turkoglu.  Mbah a Moute is as lengthy as Turkoglu and equally as quick.  If stopping Turkoglu is an important part of shutting down a potent Toronto offense, then the Bucks have an early lead on slowing them.  Tukoglu is a very good distributor and meshes well with a shoot first point guard who certainly will never be known as a world class ball distributor.

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Chris Bosh

There certainly is some mystery to Ilyasova’s nine minute performance on Monday.  He didn’t play bad or good, he was just there and I guess that’s not enough to earn playing time these days, especially with Hakim Warrick’s recent resurgence.  Whether Ilyasova or Bogut defend Bosh will probably dictate how he operates, he’ll likely head inside more on Ilyasova than he would on the stronger and larger Bogut.  Bosh has a terrific mid-range game and is having a career year in terms of scoring and rebounding.  He’s also getting to the line nine times a game and hitting 78 percent of them and, if you haven’t heard, the Bucks have a problem with allowing that sort of thing.

Advantage: Raptors

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Andrea Bargnani

Bogut may have an issue chasing Bargnani around the three-point line, but he should be able to muscle up the Italian for some easy buckets inside.  I guess this is going to be an interesting battle between flawed number one picks not capable of carrying teams by themselves.  The difference between these two is one is proficient offensively with consistency and the other gets it done on the glass and defense every night. Personally, I’ll take the Bucks end.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Hakim Warrick, Luke Ridnour, Carlos Delfino, Kurt Thomas and introducing … JERRY STACKHOUSE

vs.

Jose Calderon, Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli and Antoine Wright

The Bucks powerful bench is among the highest scoring units in the league thanks largely to Warrick and Ridnour.  Whether or not Stackhouse can shore up the wing deficiencies they’ve had sans Mike Redd. Calderon is as good of a shooter as any player in the league and could probably still be starting in the league for a good team so long as it was the right one.  Johnson isn’t blocking as many shots as he used to, but he’s still fouling at an insane pace.  Neither Belinelli or Wright can get their shooting percentages over 40, which actually makes them perfect candidates for a job with the Bucks any day now.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction(s): Bucks 107 – Raptors 105 & Raptors 111 – Bucks 98

No team needs a home game like the Bucks right now, given the pains they had on their marathon trip out West.  That alone should be enough to get them a W against a fairly average Raptors squad, right?  Given the inconsistencies the Bucks have endured for the large part of this season though, I wouldn’t take that for granted.

The road may yet again prove to be a different story though.  The Raptors traditionally have a very supportive home crowd and their typically solid home win totals reflect that.  13-6 at home this year and 8-15 on the road tells the tale of this year’s Raptors.

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But it isn’t hard to be concerned about another knee injury to Michael Redd.

Either on his jump or on his landing on what looked to be a shot attempted but ended up as a pass in the second quarter, Redd went down and didn’t come back up.  The left knee is the same knee he tore his ACL and MCL in last January and gave him soreness earlier this year that required some time off.  Whether this is as serious as the latter or another patella strain remains to be seen, but it’s generally not a good sign when a player needs to be helped back to the locker room as Redd did.

So, What Does This Mean?

A few things.  For starters, I’d expect to see Charlie Bell back in the starting line-up Monday night against Phoenix.  Bell’s minutes have been on a roller coaster ride since Redd returned, some DNP-CD’s, a few single digit minute games and then games in which he’s play nearly the entire second half after not playing in the first.  Fortunately, Bell is the type of player to always keep himself ready, so he’s handled the rocky minutes fairly well.

Whether he can be a reliable starting shooting guard is another story.  While Bell does excel at catch and shoot three’s, he generally does everything else poorly on offense.  He cannot attack with success, he often gets caught up in pump fakes that do not open up space for him and if he puts the ball on the ground at all before shooting it’s safe to assume it won’t be going in.  His defense is largely what has got him in games before, but it’s difficult for him to make a major impact guarding player three and four inches taller and 20 pounds heavier.  In short, he’s not an ideal starting shooting guard.

What About Jodie Meeks?

Jodie Meeks is getting more lives than a cat this season.  Meeks has shown quick flashes of shooting touch and athleticism in a few games, but then typically responded with three or four bad games in a row if he was given any real opportunity with regard to minutes.  Even worse, his better games have all come in blowouts, rendering them nearly meaningless.  If Redd didn’t go down, it’s hard to envision a situation where Meeks would ever get serious minutes again this year.

Alas, Redd’s down and Meeks performed well in Sunday’s blowout loss to the Lakers.  The one thing that Meeks has struggled with more than anything else has been his three-point shooting.  As Frank from BrewHoop pointed out in his recap of the Laker game, Meeks is 2-23 on the road from behind the arc.  His athleticism and defense have looked to be on an NBA level, something that cannot be said about all Bucks players, but a team like Milwaukee simply cannot give large helpings of minutes to a shooting guard that can’t hit a three-point shot, especially next to someone like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. If Meeks wants to take advantage of this opportunity he’ll likely be given, the three’s must start falling.

Will This Mean More Delfino?

Well, I sure hope not.  I don’t even understand what’s going on with Carlos Delfino on the court at this point.  He’s just not very good at much.  Delfino seems to have the idea that he can create and can play point guard for stretches, but he can’t.  When he takes the rebound and decides to bring it up himself rather than just hand it off to whichever point guard is on the court, I want to stop watching basketball.  He’s that guy on your team who’s obsessed with bringing the ball up the court and seeing whether or not he likes anything HE sees before he gives it up like he’s supposed to.  I’ve always hated playing with guys like that and I’m not even good at basketball.  I can only imagine how frustrating it is for Bucks guards to play with this guy.

Ideally Delfino would just sprint down the court and stand in the corner waiting for a kickout to shoot a three.  You know, because he’s a shooter.  What’s that you say?  He’s shooting less than 32 percent on three’s?  Who ever could have seen this coming?  What’s that?  Everyone?

Oh yeah, that’s right.

In short, let’s just hope this whole thing doesn’t result in a whole lot more Delfino.

Who Could Get Minutes If Not Delfino?

I don’t even remember what music played when Joe Alexander scored at the BC last year, but whatever it was, cue it up.  This could be just the opportunity Alexander needed to jump-start his career.  I hesitate to write this because I know there were opportunities available for Joe last year and either he still wasn’t given chances or he just didn’t make the most of them.  With another year of maturation, it’s possible he’s more ready to take advantage of this opportunity, but who really knows.  It’s a positive sign that Alexander traveled out West with the team, so he could be ready to go any time this week for all we know and this could spur his return.  After all, he can attack the rim and get to the free throw line and does posses athleticism that seems to make him a logical on-court partner for Brandon Jennings.

Whether or not the Bucks really want to “See Joe Dunk” is another story.  He doesn’t have a contract for next year, there have been trade talks since virtually last January about him and there have been so many rumblings about why he hasn’t gotten a shot a minor earthquake could be recorded.  It probably would benefit Milwaukee to let Alexander get some run and see if he can at least be tagged a semi-attractive prospect for trade talks the rest of the way though.  They’d be well served to get something, something maybe meaning the opportunity to dump Dan Gadzuric’s contract, rather than nothing for Alexander if he proves capable.

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