Sometimes when Milwaukee has won this season, it hasn’t really felt like a win.  I’ll point to a 79-72 victory over the Golden State Warriors at home as a prime example.  Milwaukee didn’t play well that night, they just didn’t plays as bad as the Warriors.  A win is a win, but that felt hollow and no answers to the Bucks problems emerged from it.

Saturday night at home against the Charlotte Bobcats though, the Bucks looked like they had won.  No question about it.  They out-executed, out-shot and just generally out-played the Bobcats.  Given the way things have been going this season, that is no small feat.  And given that Milwaukee was without Andrew Bogut, Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, it was really impressive.

Until the last three minutes and five seconds at least.

Milwaukee spent that final three minutes blowing an 11-point lead and seemed sure to be headed for a tie game with 7.1 seconds to play after Gerald Wallace was fouled heading to the rim in a two point game.  Unfortunately for Wallace, he was injured on the fall, leaving him out of the game and the Bucks free to pick his replacement.

Obviously, they picked Kwame Brown. Yes, that Kwame Brown.

Brown, a 57.1% career free throw shooter, stayed trued to form and missed one of two.  Brandon Jennings was fouled on the inbound, made two free throws and the Bobcats allowed the Bucks to breathe easy by missing a desperation three at the buzzer.

Offense

The pick and roll between Jennings and Milwaukee bigs hasn’t been working out so well this season.  So often, Jennings is left going nowhere and a big man rolls to the hoop with no hope of receiving a pass.  Saturday night though, primarily in the first quarter, Milwaukee effectively was able to use John Salmons as a screener with Jennings.  After screening, Salmons could roll away from the hoop, either opening something up for Jennings or getting himself the ball off a Jennings pass with a mismatched defender on him.  Salmons was able to get some post-ups against smaller players and better looks at the basket.  I’ve document Salmons struggles virtually all the time this season, so I’ll give credit where it is due, he was very effective and had everything to do with a 29-point Milwaukee first quarter, hitting five of six shots and scoring 10 points.  He finished with 16 points, but wasn’t forcing the issue as often (though he did a bit in the fourth quarter), and further cemented the theory that when he plays well, the Bucks play well.

• Jennings wasn’t so shabby himself.  When he wasn’t picking and rolling with Salmons, he was catching passes from teammates while planted firmly outside the 3-point line and hitting open threes.  In Milwaukee’s losses they’ve shot just 23.7% on 3-pointers as a team.  Jennings has been particularly bad, hitting just 12 of 52 threes in losses.  On each of his four first half makes on Saturday though, he had time to set himself and take a balanced, consistent jump-shot.  Things weren’t so smooth in the second half, as the Bobcats stayed a little closer to him and he was forced to rush more often than not, but he still finished a respectable six of 13 from three.  Overall, he finished with 32 points on 10 of 21 shooting and tossed in seven assists against just two turnovers.  This was definitely Good Jennings.

• Ersan Ilyasova got his first start of the season with Bogut still dealing with some back soreness and Jon Brockman not bringing much to the table and he responded.  Milwaukee ran a number of plays through him in the high post and he was quick in making decisions, whether he was trying to force passes into open baseline cutters (resulted in two turnovers) or kicking it out to an open Jennings (see all those 3-pointers Jennings hit).  Ilyasova had a surprising six assists in the game.  That didn’t prevent him from doing some old school Ilyasova things though, as he hit three of six 3-pointers en route to 17 points.  He also grabbed nine rebounds, three of them offensive.  That’s the Ilyasova we all want to see every night.

• Pre-game, Scott Skiles was worried Chris Douglas-Roberts was a little too out of it to make much of an impact, having not gone through a full contact practice yet.  Funny how things work out.  His connecting on open jumpers was a sight for sore eyes and, before making a stupid foul to give Charlotte a 3-point-play on the next possession, seemed to have sealed the game with his own 3-point-play late in the fourth quarter.  Mental mistake and defensive struggles aside though, CD-R’s apparent ability to make open shots and score is a very, VERY welcome addition to these Milwaukee Bucks.  He finished with 11 points on four of six shooting.

Defense

Milwaukee shot 67.7% in the first half, made 13 of 16 free throws, had 17 assists on 21 made shots, made five of nine threes …. and had just a seven point lead.  Why?  For the second consecutive game, defense was a bit of an issue.  In the games first 24 minutes, The Bobcats shot 50% themselves and converted on 16 of 19 free throw attempts.  The defensive issues continued into the third quarter, but Milwaukee did just enough offensively to keep their defensive issues at bay until the defense returned to form in the fourth quarter.  At least it returned to form until the free throw parade started.  Milwaukee allowed the Bobcats to go 14 of 16 from the stripe in the final quarter, turning a blowout into a nail-biter.  For the game, the Bbcats made 35 of 41 free throws.

• While the Bucks still struggled in the third quarter to keep the Bobcats shooting percentage down, they countered that by forcing five turnovers.  The Bucks won the turnover battle 15-12 in the game and even did a good job of capitalizing on Charlotte turnovers, scoring 21 points off them.

• In place of the ailing Gooden (plantar faciitis) Larry Sanders made his first start and results were generally positive.  He hit a couple open looks, he finished at the hop with a powerful dunk against Tyrus Thomas and he made his presence known defensively with a shot-clock violation inducing rejection.  Sanders can still make his biggest impact defensively by coming off the ball and blocking shots in that way.  Rebounding is still a work in progress for him, as after grabbing 10 against the Pistons he managed just three against the Bobcats, but it’s exciting to see him progressing, if only ever so slightly.

From 415

This one came more from 225, by the Bobcats bench.  A gentleman seemed to be particularly mesmerized by Bobcats coach Larry Brown’s insistence on standing to coach his team for the majority of the game.

“SIT DOWN, LARRY BROWN!”

It kind of made me think of Charlie Brown and the Great Pumpkin, or maybe just Charlie Brown in general.  Though it wasn’t effective in getting Brown to sit down, it was rhythmic and amusing.

Final Thoughts

This certainly wasn’t the 3-0 week many were hoping for last Sunday.  Blown opportunities in Cleveland and Detroit matched an awful effort against the Thunder last Saturday and Milwaukee was staring at a sixth straight loss before Saturday’s game with a brutal schedule ahead.  Aside from the toll losses like recent ones take on a team’s record, Milwaukee had gone a long time without having felt good about anything they accomplished.  Players aren’t robots, that kind of thing hurts a lot.  A win against another struggling and under-performing Eastern conference team isn’t a long term remedy, but it’s a small mental boost for a team that sorely needed one.

And with the four games Milwaukee has coming up, it’s possible they won’t have anything else to feel good about for a while.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (to the right).

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That’s why I write about basketball on the internet and don’t work for a team.

In what he deemed his most impressive performance to date, Jennings carved up the Bobcats for his first triple double, finishing with 20/10/10 (6-8 FG 3-3 3FG).  And while the numbers looked very nice at the end of the night, the most impressive part of Jennings game was the way he controlled EVERYTHING.  All summer long we heard Jennings fawn over his new teammates and predict that he’d average 10 assists a night this season and with two separate 10 assist games this season he looks on track.  His assists weren’t what most caught my eye in last night’s game though.

A year ago, we would often see Jennings make a shot or two and then take a couple more, because maybe he was feeling it.  If he was?  Things would get very awesome, very quickly.  But if it turned out that he wasn’t?  Things usually got ugly.  That’s not an ideal scenario.  Ideally, you’d like a point guard to get his own shot when it’s there, but work to get his teammates good looks too.  And that’s what Jennings did so well Saturday.

There were no instances in which he took shots simply because he was hot.  He waited for his opportunities and made the most of them.  20 points on just eight shot attempts is pretty phenomenal.  It was refreshing to see Jennings finish 3-3 on his 3-point attempts after a rough first two games.  Scott Skiles said he spoke with Jennings about staying on balance on his shots before the game and the advice seems to have paid off wonderfully.

Offense

There was more to this game than just a great effort from Brandon Jennings though.  Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has always filled the garbage man role well and looked very good contributing nine points (4-5 FG 1-4 FT) and nine rebounds.  Mbah a Moute understands his limitations very well; you won’t find him taking 23-foot jumpers or slashing through a crowd very often.  You will find Mbah a Moute following his defender to the offensive glass and playing the bounce very well.  While he’s not the most talented player, his comfort in the Bucks system and knowledge of where to be is evident when he’s on the court.

Saturday night, it was night and day between the Bucks with Mbah a Moute at the four and the Bucks with Drew Gooden at the four.  Gooden finished with just 13 minutes Saturday and was unable to grab one defensive rebound.  He scored four points, had two offensive fouls and was 1-4 from the field.  At one point, I thought this whole idea of “gelling” was kind of silly, but it was right there in front of me Saturday.  Gooden hasn’t grasped what he’s supposed to be doing on the court yet and Mbah a Moute has two years of experience doing the right things.  In time, Gooden will probably figure out what his job is on the court, and if/when he does, Milwaukee will be an even better team.  But for now, Mbah a Moute could very well see more minutes, and be more successful, than any other power forward on Milwaukee.

• Milwaukee made a concerted effort to get the ball inside to Andrew Bogut early and often Saturday night.  He attempted eight shots in the first quarter after taking one fewer than that in the entire Timberwolves game.  In other, not-so-coincidental news, Milwaukee led 27-18 after one quarter.  It’s been clear for a long time that the Bucks are a different team when Bogut isn’t on the court and, despite the additions the Bucks made over the off season,, Bogut needs to be driving the Bucks offense for them to succeed.

• Carlos Delfino should probably take 10 3-pointers a game this season.  At least if he keeps shooting it the way he has been he should.  He finished with 23 points (8-17 FG 5-11 3FG) and looked like he thought every single shot that left his hand was money.  Skiles indicated that Delfino’s shot-making early was infectious and “took the lid off the hoop” for Milwaukee, something they could never do in Friday’s loss to Minnesota.

Defense

Before the game, I asked Coach Skiles about the Bucks defense.  It looked like they didn’t do too bad a job against the T-Wolves, so I wondered how satisfied he was.  Here’s what he had to say:

If they shoot once and miss and get the rebound and shoot again and miss and get the rebound and score, they may have shot 33%, but they scored that trip down.  Ultimately, they stayed on offense that whole time.  That defensive possession is a failure.  We did a better job getting after them early and contesting shots, making them miss the initial shot, but we weren’t able to finish them off.  They out-hustled us.

Needless to say, the Bucks would not be out-hustled in their home opener.  Milwaukee allowed only five offensive rebounds to the Bobcats and grabbed 14 of their own.  The Bucks won the rebounding battle 40-28.  That seems more indicative of the kind of rebounding team the Bucks will be.

• Jon Brockman still isn’t grabbing rebounds the way I expected (two in 12 minutes), but he’s taking charges like he’s studied under Bogut and Ersan Ilyasova for years.  In the second quarter alone, Brockman took three charges.  His athleticism isn’t eye popping, but it’s not bad either.  If he can combine that with the ability to get good position, he could be a very effective defender.

Final Thoughts

Milwaukee came out with loads more energy and looked like a much more confident, cohesive group.  A lot of that could be explained by 30+ minutes of Milwaukee’s starting five for a lot of the second half of last season: Bogut, Mbah a Moute, Delfino, John Salmons and Jennings.  Those guys know each other and know where they are supposed to be.  The question now becomes, how can Milwaukee implement Gooden and Corey Maggette into the lineup without suffering through long droughts?  Like it or not, Gooden needs to be apart of the rotation and Milwaukee has to find a way to get his contributions on the court to be more positive than negative.  He’s still going to see minutes and for now, it looks like it still could be a struggle for the team, but better it be that way in November than in March.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan of Bucksketball on Facebook (to the right).

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vs

Charlotte Bobcats (Larry Brown) 0-2
Inactive: Kwame Brown, Dominic McGuire, Eduardo Najera

Date: 10/30/2010
Game Time: 7:30 PM (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

The Other Guys: Queen City Hoops

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. DJ Augustin

Removing the month of November last season and a March game in Sacramento, Brandon Jennings was a 33% 3-point shooter last season.  This season, he’s 2-12 from behind the arc.  I’m not saying he’s a bad 3-point shooter, but I’m saying it’s certainly something worth keeping an eye.  His ridiculous November last year certainly masked some ills.  When we separate it and treat it as a fluke, the picture is not quite as pretty.  He whiffed on a lot of very clean, open looks Friday night that could have really helped out Milwaukee.  If he’s not making those reliably this season, that changes a lot for the Bucks.  Augustin has shooting problems of his own.  He’s 7-29 on the season.  His size gives him trouble defensively too.  There aren’t many point guards in the league that Jennings can muscle up, but Augustin is one of them.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Stephen Jackson

Salmons has scored 12 points this season and committed seven turnovers.  So that pretty accurately sums up how things have gone for him in two games.  He’s bound to improve on that, but how much?  He slumped badly in Chicago after starting so strong when they acquired him.  Should the Bucks prepare themselves for a significant drop in production from Salmons?  We’ll have a better idea in a month.  Jackson is still Stephen Jackson and can still torch the Bucks.  Milwaukee’s a lot bigger than they used to be and Jackson certainly used to take advantage of that.  He won’t have free reign, but could still pose a lot of problems for Milwaukee.

Advantage: Bobcats

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Gerald Wallace

Wallace isn’t rebounding with the same viciousness that he did last season, dropping from his 10 a game to a more believable 7.5, but he’s still a load for opposing small forwards.  His athleticism and fearlessness are reminiscent of Corey Maggette, just with less volume.  At least historically.  This season Wallace has ramped things up and has been awarded 24 free throws in two games.  Given the way the Bucks have allowed free throws this season, that could be an issue tonight.  Delfino has been one of the better Bucks, but didn’t get many looks on Friday.  They’ll need to look to him for open threes early in the night, just to get someone going from long range.  He’s without question the best shooter in the Bucks starting lineup.  The way Jennings and Salmons have shot, he’s starting to look like the only one.

Advantage: Bobcats

Power Forward

Drew Gooden vs. Boris Diaw

Boris Diaw is no David West and he’s no Kevin Love.  So for the first time, Gooden shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the opposing power forward.  But he can’t slack either.  10 of Diaw’s 21 shot attempts this season have been 3-pointers, so Gooden will need to be hustling about to make sure he can help out and then get back to Diaw behind the arc.  Offensively, Gooden will have a nice size advantage over Diaw and should be able to turn in a high percentage outing.  Milwaukee doesn’t want to feature Drew Gooden offensively though, so hopefully the majority of his points come on pick and pops or put-backs.  That’s an ideal scenario for Gooden.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Nazr Mohammed

Many years ago, Milwaukee would go inside to Bogut on the first play of the game.  Then he would stand around and watch guards shoot questionable shots and ignore him for the remaining 46 minutes.  No one wants to see that again.  Bogut attempted just seven shots against Minnesota.  Some of the blame goes to him, he got in foul trouble and maybe passed on a few occasions in which he should have shot, but whatever the case may be, Bogut needs to get more shots.  It’s clear that the Bucks are significantly less successful with Bogut off the floor, now they just need him to be more aggressive when he’s on it for them to get past their early struggles.  Mohammed is a big, physical center, but he’s ultimately a backup center.  The second best center in the league should have his way with the journeyman Mohammed.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Corey Maggette, Ersan Ilyasova, Keyon Dooling, Jon Brockman and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

vs.

Tyrus Thomas, Shawn Livingston, DeSagana Diop, Gerald Henderson and Derrick Brown

If Corey Maggette didn’t exist and the Bucks bench just played six players on Friday night, their line would have looked like this: 13 points (6-20 FG 0-4 3FG 1-2 FT), 10 rebounds, four assists, four turnovers and 17 personal fouls.  That, friends, is a disaster.  Milwaukee absolutely must find some other solutions off the bench, aside from Maggette.  It was nice to see Mbah a Moute and Brockman return, but they provided little more than energy.  Brockman needs to do the rebounding he was brought in to do.  Mbah a Moute still looks fairly hopeless anywhere on the offense aside from directly underneath the rim.  He still looked good defensively, but Milwaukee’s offensive problems are so significant right now, it’s difficult to forget his issues on that end.  Charlotte may be one of the only teams in the league that poses less of a threat from behind the arc than Milwaukee.  The Bucks can cling to Maggette’s one made 3-pointer off the bench, but the Bobcats have yet to see a backup hit a three.  This could get ugly tonight.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 89 – Bobcats 86

Third time is a charm, right?  I know I keep picking the Bucks and they continue to lose, but I’ll get my thumb on this team yet.  Few teams lose their home openers, if Milwaukee drops this one, I’d be even more surprised than I was last night.  The Bucks are bound to have a few players return to form and make some shots.  This will be Salmons third game back, I’d peg him as a hopeful.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan of Bucksketball on Facebook (to the right).

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And things are suddenly not looking so well.  But looks can be deceiving.

After ripping apart the league for most of the last month, the Bucks have now dropped two straight devastating road games.  Two road losses that have left them dangerously close to dropping down to seventh in the Eastern Conference.  These were two road losses that were difficult to swallow.  Road losses in which they led each game in the fourth quarter.  Two road losses that saw the Bucks shoot themselves in the proverbial foot in those fourth quarters.

Two road losses that make me think they’re closer to where they want to be than we’re realizing right now.

Right now, it’s natural to be in that “this iodine on our wound stings an awful lot” phase after these losses.  The wounds are fresh; it’ll take a win over Phoenix or at least wins over Chicago and New Jersey for the stinging to wear off.  And don’t get me wrong, I think Milwaukee needs two out of those three at minimum.  No matter what, losing more than two or (at most) three games in a row at this time of the year, with the conference so bunched together from five to nine, is unacceptable.  But for right now, I’m at least taking solace in the fact that the Bucks actually played well in these last two, all things considered.

I mean, they led both games in the fourth.  Execution down the stretch of each game wasn’t strong.  In the final two minutes of the Cleveland game, with a two point lead, Milwaukee proceeded to shoot four three-pointers and turn the ball over twice in seven possessions.  Not great decision making.  In a three minute fourth quarter stretch in Charlotte, Milwaukee turned the ball over on five of six possessions – all while allowing just two points.  In addition, Charlotte got three offensive rebounds in the final minute.  Again, this wasn’t pretty.

But there’s upside here.  This is the Bucks shooting themselves in the foot and that doesn’t happen frequently.  Milwaukee ranks fifth in the league in total turnovers and first in offensive rebounds allowed.  Is it worth fretting about what ultimately undid Milwaukee in these games when it’s not likely to be their downfall throughout the rest of the regular season and playoffs?  I think probably not.

So I’m not getting too upset right now.  I’m just going to blow on my wound and hope the stinging stops.

Offense

It was the John Salmons show once again.  Even an (accidental) elbow to the head courtesy of Stephen Jackson that sent Salmons to the trainers room and in a bit of a frenzy (well, at least for John Salmons – he gets emotional about as often as most lamps) didn’t slow the Bucks guard.  Salmons had 28 points (12-22 FG 2-4 3FG 2-2 FT) for the second straight night and more often than not, became the Bucks only offensive option.  Milwaukee constantly found themselves relying on Salmons to make decisions and force the issue as the shot clock was winding down.  He came through often enough for them to hang in this one, but not often enough for them to win.  This simply isn’t going to cut it come playoff time, perhaps for a stretch here and there, but Milwaukee will absolutely need to get more out of other positions.

• Like the point guard position.  Luke Ridnour wasn’t on and neither was Brandon Jennings. Ridnour’s been a very good shooter this year, but it was obvious at the end of this one that he wasn’t going to be getting in the lane and making any plays any time soon.  He’s had the runner this year and been able to get that pretty frequently, but he can’t really break anyone down.  At least not like Jennings can.  But Jennings has looked ultra-hesitant for most of the last six games (except Memphis).  Milwaukee needs him to help Salmons by penetrating and dishing or just finding a way to finish.  Against Memphis, Jennings was 6-9 at the rim.  That’s what Milwaukee wants to see.

• To be fair, it wasn’t all Salmons Friday.  Andrew Bogut had another double-double (19-12), always nice to see.  Unfortunately, he was just 8-16 from the field, not one of his finest efforts.  I’d say the Bobcats defense does that to people, but they play Tyson Chandler and Theo Ratliff at the five.  So I really would have liked to see a better percentage inside.

• As always, the Bucks were unable to match the opposition’s free throw numbers.  Charlotte shot 20-27 from the line, while Milwaukee hit on just 10-15.  That’s not too big of a difference, at least nothing the Bucks aren’t used to, but the Bucks have to hit threes to make up this difference.  Milwaukee was just 6-20 from deep, the worst offender being a possibly still woozy Carlos Delfino at 2-8.

Defense

This game was everything it was advertised from a defensive perspective.  Two physical teams paying with intensity turned up.  Larry Brown got the heave early and the Bucks looked like they had a chip on their shoulders for the majority of this one.  I guess that’s just what happens when you’re guys are taking blows to the face.

• Andrew Bogut’s defense was all the rage on ESPN’s Daily Dime Live Friday night.  Is he better defensively than Dwight Howard? Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t (he probably isn’t), but he’s pretty good.  He was at it again against the ‘Cats, finishing with seven blocks and at least two charges by my count.

• Stephen Jackson has really hurt the Bucks in the past, and he hit another big shot to give the ‘Cats their victory.  But he took 28 shots to get his 32 points.  It’s hard to fault the Bucks for their defense on him in this one, but you can never fall asleep on a guy like Jack.  He’ll shoot.

• A small example of how good the rotations for each team were?  Milwaukee: 17 assists to 16 turnovers.  Charlotte: 17 assists to 17 turnovers.  Everywhere the ball went, a defender went.  The teams also combined for 22 blocks and tons more contests.

Final Thoughts

So, yes, there are no moral victories anymore.  But really, there kind of are.  At this point, Milwaukee just wants to be playing well heading into the playoffs and hang onto the fifth or sixth seed.  I wouldn’t say they’re playing poorly, but they aren’t quite at their best.  Defensively, they’ve played pretty solid these last two games; it just comes down to a few possessions here and there that need to be ironed out.  Even so, that might be nit-picking.  Milwaukee is never going to play the perfect game, but they need to pick their spots in which they get the yips a little better.  Can we go back to those slow starts again?

Now Milwaukee has to play a Western Conference powerhouse on the second night of a back-to-back.  At least they’re off the road.

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 41-33

At

Charlotte Bobcats (Larry Brown) 39-35

Date: 4/2/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Ray Felton

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Stephen Jackson

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino (maybe still Charlie Bell) vs. Gerald Wallace

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Boris Diaw

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Theo Ratliff

Bench

Stack, Ridnour, Kurt Thomas and The Ersanator

Vs.

Tyson Chandler, Larry Hughes Errant Jumpshot, Ty Thomas and Stephen Graham

Prediction: Milwaukee 93 – Charlotte 87

Charlotte is really good at home, really really good at home.  But so was Cleveland and the Bucks nearly pulled that one out.  This can be done, but Milwaukee will need to execute the hell out of their offense.  Bogut has got to be the focus this evening, as Theo Ratliff and Tyson Chandler aren’t really going to be able to handle him.  Don’t be shocked if Jennings struggles again, or if Skiles rides him anyway.

This may be one of the uglier games you’ll see this year if these teams are really on their game; the Bucks rank 4^th in defensive rating, while the Bobcats lead the league.  That being said, it’ll likely come down to whoever is taking care of the ball and making the most of their possessions on offense.

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Looking at the remaining schedules, it appears if Miami can keep it together long enough, they have a good chance to make some noise come April.  With as soft a schedule as a team could ever ask for in the final month of the season, Miami will have ample room for upward mobility.  Of course, they lost to Minnesota last night, so take nothing for granted.  Their success largely depends on the health of Dwyane Wade. Wade missed Tuesday’s game in Minnesota, but will likely be back on Saturday for an important game with the Bucks.

Miami also has the most games remaining against the other three teams, with three games each.  The Bucks only have four such games left, but hold the series lead against all three teams and the Bucks currently have the best division record too. Those records may factor into whether or not the Bucks get in, so they have some meaning.

If two of the teams tie, the tiebreakers go as such:

1. Head to head records.  Whoever has won the series between the two teams gets to keep playing.

2. If they have tied the season series AND are in the same division, then division record takes precedence.  This applies to only the Bucks and Bulls.

3. After division it comes down to whichever team has a better record against teams in conference.

For more info about multiple team ties, head over to this playoff tiebreaker explanation.

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A. A versatile offense capable of driving to the basket, hitting outside shots or tossing it down low to their big-time center – also known as Saturday night’s version of the Milwaukee Bucks (save for the 40 percent shooting).

Earlier this season I resigned myself to the fact that I’d spend the majority of the year watching the Bucks launch difficult jump-shots, occasionally open threes and rarely driving to the hoop if Andrew Bogut didn’t have it going or couldn’t get a good look.  I never felt great about it, but hoped the Bucks tenacious defense would at least keep them in games long enough for them to get hot at some point and win.  After all, 48 minutes of defense in the NBA will get a team a lot of wins.  At this point, it’s starting to look like a few variables have been added to the mix that could drastically alter the course of the Bucks offense going forward.

Variable one is easy enough to figure out: John Salmons. In two games Salmons has shown more attack moves and signs of being the perfect “drive” player in a “drive and kick” game that gets other Bucks open shots (seven assists and five rebounds on Saturday to go with his 19 points!).  In addition, he’s a capable three-point shooter, has the size to finish on the break and has shot more free-throws in two games than other Bucks two guards did in the four games previous.

Variable two:  The Brandon Jennings Roller Coaster.  Jennings has had his ups and downs well documented.  He’s learning the pro game and isn’t just playing for this season.  With that being said, Jennings is going to have some pretty good games the rest of the way, perhaps not as frequently as he did in the first couple weeks, but he will have some and when they happen they’ll be a significant boost to the Bucks offense.  It’s impossible to tell when Jennings’ shooting touch will show up, but that’s just part of the excitement in following the rook.  Here’s to the ups.

Offense

The free-throw problem has looked like significantly less of a problem in the last two games.  Part of the reason has been Jennings finally getting some calls.  It’s possible he had to earn them the way most rookies have to earn minutes and it’s been a difficult and tedious process.  But in his last two games has taken 17 freebies and connected on 88 percent (15-17) of them.

• Bogut had it going offensively and showed a little more variety than usual, stepping out a number of times for jumpers that typically aren’t his thing.  He also used the Bobcats shot-blocking aggressiveness against them with a slick pump-fake/drop pass to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for an easy layup in the fourth.  Oh, and he stuck with it in the post even if he struggled a little (8-18 from the field).  18 and 13 for Bogut … but we’re not done with him just yet (see DEFENSE).

• The Bucks shot 20-26 from the line and 9-24 from three, out doing the Bobs in both categories.  The Bucks no longer absolutely need to shut down their opponents and shoot a better percentage.  The influx of free-throws from Jennings and Salmons (7-8) go a long way towards helping the Bucks win games in which they shoot 40 percent like they did Saturday.

• Jerry Stackhouse on shooting threes and taking it to the hoop.

If we can get that contagious throughout the team we can be dangerous.  We got to be able to move the ball and make the easy plays, man.  Gotta get out of the “hero syndrome”, not against good teams, can’t have that, not against good teams.  That’s not a great team we played tonight, but whenever you make the extra pass it seem like that ball finds a way to go in.  Nothing wrong with three-point shooting as long as it’s a shot where a guy can catch the ball and got time to look at it.  When you got contested running shots at the basket and (stuff) like that, that’s a hard way to consistently win.  That’s a recipe for disaster in my mind.

Is there anyone who seems wiser than Stack?

Defense

Bogut: Australian for Blocks.  Seriously, the Bobs were making a little bit of a charge in the fourth quarter and could have cut the Bucks lead to four points at one point on a Stephen Jackson drive.  But Bogut got busy on the defensive end.  He caught Jackson at the rim, having none of it.  Then Boris Diaw tried a floater in the lane that probably works more often than not.  This attempt fell in the “not” category as Bogut blocked this one into a fast break that resulted in two freebies for Salmons.  Bogut finished with five blocks and played terrific defense all night.

• Jackson got loose for 35 points, but Coach Scott Skiles doesn’t necessarily think it was all the fault of the defenders guarding him:

A guy like Stephen Jackson isn’t going to quit out there.  We were playing with fire a bit letting “Jack” get going.  He’s a heck of a competitor and when he gets it going he’s difficult to stop.  And we did not do a poor job on him, for the most part we were up on him, he hit some tough ones and brought them back.

Final Thoughts

It wasn’t the blowout that it was shaping up to be in the third quarter, but maybe that’s good for the Bucks.  This game was as close to a playoff game as they’ve had all year, and for a team with a lot of guys who don’t have much playoff experience, that’s important.  More from Stackhouse:

These guys never been in a playoff atmosphere, but this is as close as it get.  If you get a whole game on a team that’s up two games.  You know what I’m sayin’?  It comes down to the end of the season, you don’t want to look around at a half game, one game when you miss the playoffs.  Take advantage and control your own destiny then you’re not, at the end of the season, standing and watching hoping another team lose.

So, yeah, this was a big one.  Not only do the Bucks regain their home mojo a little after dropping two in a row at their own building, but they now own the tie breaker with the team directly in front on them in the chase for the eighth seed in the East.  It’s hard for the Bucks to have asked for more Saturday night.

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The most bizarre thing about the second half for the Bucks was that it took so long to happen.  I mean, we all know Michael Redd has been playing for appearances sake and with the hope that he’ll magically find his game and improve his trade value.  He certainly hasn’t been playing because he’s been doing so well, but everyone assumed the Bucks were stuck playing him, through thick and thin.   Then the Bucks-Bobcats first half happened.

It’s not often you’ll see a coach more at a loss for words and explanations than Kelvin Sampson was when he tried to explain what happened in the first half for the Milwaukee Bucks.  After looking off in the distance (possibly for someone who could figure out why the Bucks are playing so poorly) Sampson said something to the effect of, “Basketball is a simple game.  You just need to make your shots when you’re open.  We’re getting good looks, wide-open looks, and not hitting them.”

Sampson looked fed up and it’s logical to assume Scott Skiles was fed up too judging from his second half strategy.  The Bucks started the third with Brandon Jennings, Jodie Meeks, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova and Kurt Thomas.  The first man off the bench?  Francisco Elson.  I’d say Skiles wasn’t so thrilled with his starters, as Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut and Carlos Delfino didn’t see one second of action in the second half.

And when his team is down 22 at half to a mediocre team, how can you disagree with his moves?

While he may have gone overboard benching Bogut for the entire second half, the Bucks at least showed a little energy with the majority of their starting lineup sitting.  Cutting the deficit to ten at one point in the fourth quarter, the Bucks just didn’t have enough to get over the hump with a lineup full of backups on the court.  It was easy to get the sense that this half was about more than just today.  It seemed like Skiles had finally had enough of the talking the talk but not walking the walk.  Andrew Bogut had called out the Bucks a number of times lately, and each time he and the team offered little response.  Skiles seems to have a strong dislike for a lot of talk.  He’s a man who prefers to see action, here’s what he had to say Saturday before the Spurs game (that is, BEFORE the recent team meeting):

“The hard thing is then the next night or the next game whatever it is to come out there and back up your words with actions and lead the team.”

I don’t know what was said during the team meeting held on Sunday, but I’m certain this was not the plan for Monday.

Offense

I often find myself wondering what could possibly be going on in the heads of the Bucks players on offense.  The problem with that is that there shouldn’t really be anything going on; it should predominantly be quick read and react situations.  That’s how basketball should be played.  Instead, the Bucks players are often left holding on to the ball for long periods of time or dribbling aimlessly on the perimeter.  There is very few “attack mode” moments where a player is decisively going to the basket with a plan and I’m not sure anyone is really capable of it anyway.

• I’m sometimes amazed at the number of isolation plays the Bucks seem to run.  Do the Bucks have many players that seem capable of thriving in isolation?  Who on the Bucks is more talented offensively than their counterpart on the Bobcats would be defensively?  Maybe Jennings and occasionally Bogut, but Michael Redd and Hakim Warrick don’t have the necessary skill to beat their respective men one on one when their guarded by the capable defenders the Bobcats have.

• If anyone questions why Skiles came back out with a completely different starting five, let me point you to the numbers for the Bucks recent starting five of Jennings-Redd-Delfino-Ilyasova-Bogut:

Those numbers indicate that the Bucks score 45 less points than they allow per 100 possessions with this lineup.  The STARTING LINEUP SCORES 45 POINTS LESS THAN IT ALLOWS PER 100 POSSESSIONS!  This is more or less the worst five-man unit the Bucks could put on the court and they’ve started the last five games.  Mysteriously, Milwaukee is 1-4 in those games.  For the record, if Redd is swapped out and Mbah a Moute is swapped in, the Bucks improve to a +9.78 rating.  That’s a 54.13 difference.  Just saying.

• So in a game in which Michael Redd played 20 of the most ineffective minutes you’ll see on a basketball court, Brandon Jennings shot 9-18, had seven assists and scored 24 points.  I know this is going to sound crazy, but he played as well in the second half as he has played in over a month.  Jennings had 18 in the second half.

• Jodie Meeks earned some more clock with a strong game Saturday, but may have lost it just as quick.  Skiles has commented on Meeks speed and athleticism as being better than the rest of the Bucks guards and Meeks showed that multiple times, but if he can’t hit wide open three-point shots, he isn’t going to play.  It’s that simple.  Once in the half court he decisively attacked his man and kicked it out to Bell for an open three (Bell missed) and later he ran the break and got Mbah a Moute a layup that resulted in two free throws.  The Bucks don’t get much out of the drive and kick or transition game, so when Meeks flashes these kinds of plays, it’s a little bit of a big deal.  Those plays are all well and good, but still, he’s got to hit his three’s.

Defense

• It’s not even funny how much better Mbah a Moute is at defense than every other Bucks wing player.  He’s always tipping passes, getting in good position and grabbing rebounds (his ten led the Bucks).  I missed some of the first quarter, but as soon as I tuned in, Mbah a Moute corralled a loose ball with a dive and then tipped a pass right after.  Sure, he can’t hit a 15 foot jump-shot with consistency, but he does so many other positive things and is a great court-chemistry guy.

• Francisco Elson played as well as I’ve seen him play all year.  He absolutely looked the part of a player who had been resting and working all year long.  He was running around, being active and generally good Gadzuricish. Remember when Gadz used to be able to trap, grab rebounds and contest shots?  That was Elson Monday.  His plus eight was an accurate reflection of his contributions.

Final Thoughts

Skiles has had enough of the talking.  He wants to see results and will obviously sit anyone he doesn’t think is contributing.  All bets seem to be off right now and if the Bucks came back Wednesday with the same starters they had Monday I’d be astonished.  How Bogut and Redd take their benchings will make for an interesting two days for the Bucks on this road trip.  If they own up to their mistakes and do what’s necessary to get back on the court and get the team back on track, we could be talking about this game as a turning point in the Bucks season.  If Skiles unusual tactic of benching two of his team’s stars is met with trouble?  It could be a long couple months.

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(Likely) Inactives: Joe Alexander, Roko Ukic and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

Charlotte Bobcats (Larry Brown) 11-17

(Likely) Inactives: Tyson Chandler, Alexis Ajinca and Acie Law

Date: 12/28/2009

Time: 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Ray Felton

We may be forced to wait until Michael Redd is gone to see Brandon Jennings blossom once again.  It’s not so much the misses that have been troubling out of Jennings lately, it’s the passiveness.  It’s almost as if he’s trying to over pass to Redd because he knows that’s the only way he’ll get out of Milwaukee.  The Bucks could sorely use some more decisive drives out of Jennings though.  With Redd on the court, he’s been reduced to a perimeter passer and shooter.  There has been very few moments of drive and kick or drive and drop passes to Bogut.  And the pick and roll that once worked so well with Andrew Bogut has become woefully ineffective lately.  Just one of the many things going wrong in Milwaukee as of late.  Oddly enough, Jennings is still taking care of the ball and racking up assists, so it’s hard to complain too much.  But the Bucks need him to do so much more than just manage the game.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Michael Redd vs. Stephen Jackson

Word is that Jodie Meeks might get a start on Monday night, and in that case Redd will likely slide over to the two and the Bucks will likely start out poorly again, as Redd cannot hang with Gerald Wallace and Meeks likely will have trouble against Stephen Jackson.  Coach Skiles was asked before the game Saturday if Redd and Jennings were a tough fit together because they both needed the ball to be effective, here was his response:

I’ve never understood what that means because who doesn’t need the ball?  Even if I drive down the lane and I throw a lob up to Bogut he has to catch it and dunk it to be effective.  At some point it has to be in his hands.  So I’ve never understood what that means aside from a stiff who’s just out there screening for everybody, and then you can’t have him in the game because he can’t make a basket.

When the Bucks were then getting blown out midway through the second quarter later that evening I looked down at Michael Redd’s line to see 2-9 shooting, four points and zero rebounds/assists/steals.  So unless Michael Redd was shooting, he literally was doing nothing to help the Bucks.  I think that might be someone being ineffective without the ball.  The Bobcats have been riding Captain Jack for over 40 minutes a night and he seems to have free reign on offense.  It hasn’t resulted in a lot of great nights, but the Bucks defense of recent memory could help him with that.

Advantage: Bobcats

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Gerald Wallace

Wallace’s rebounding is hard to keep considering an anomaly at this point.  He’s still at 11.9 rebounds per game after never eclipsing eight a night before this year.  The most logical explanations for the board boon would be the Bobcats generally poor team shooting percentage of 43.8 and the loss of Emeka Okafor to New Orleans.  Tyson Chandler has been playing hurt and only grabbing around eight rebounds a night, leaving lots to be grabbed.  Whether it’s Delfino, Redd or Meeks that gets stuck on Wallace they’ll have their hands full with him on offense and defense.  In Charlotte’s visit to the Bradley Center last month, Wallace seemed content to shoot jumpers, but I don’t expect that same Wallace to show up at home.

Advantage: Charlotte

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Boris Diaw

After squaring off with the rebound hungry DeJuan Blair on Saturday, I’m sure Ilyasova will be much happier facing Diaw, who’s considerably more at home floating around the perimeter and acting as a point forward.  Blair never stopped working for rebounds and was an absolute load to keep off the glass.  Ilyasova has been in a fierce tailspin of late and his confidence looks to be at an all-time low.  The pump faking is back in full force and that never results in anything good for him.  He’s at his best when he’s decisive and shooting on catches.

Advantage: Charlotte

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Nazr Mohammed

I’d feel a lot better about Bogut’s chances in this game, and every game, if he could develop anything from 15 feet.  It’s so hard for him to be consistent when only relying on baby and sweeping hooks.  It may not seem like it, but those are incredibly tough shots and always leave him out of position when it comes to rebounding.  It’s hard to ever be consistent or dominant with those as your only moves and that’s why we see some game where Bogut can shoot 14-18 and others where he ends 6-20.  That’s just the kind of swings that hook shots allow for.  He’s never going to get easy dunks, but if a team had to respect him from 15 feet he may have an easier time getting to the basket.  Bogut has a good chance to be effective against this team, especially with Tyson Chandler out.  Mohammed has remarkably shot over 60 percent this year and has pretty much played out of his min, but doesn’t bring a lot on defense.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jodie Meeks, Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas and Charlie Bell

vs.

Derrick Brown, D.J. Augustin, Stephen Graham and Ronald Murray

Not a lot here for the Bobcats as they play two of their starters over 40 minutes a night.  It’ll be interesting to see how Jodie Meeks does after a very strong game against the Spurs.  He’s probably the Bucks most athletic guard and would be well served to take it to the hoop more often and up his aggressiveness.  Hakim Warrick played well Saturday, but it was mostly garbage jumpers that happened to fall, not exactly the blueprint to success for him.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bobcats 99 – Bucks 89

The Bobcats are 10-4 at home coming into this game, so it’d be quite an upset if the typically terrible road Bucks can pull this one off.  Heading to Orlando next doesn’t bode well for Milwaukee either.  This week could be an especially long one for Milwaukee Buck fans, as the playoff spot the Bucks have been fighting to hold onto may fall out of their hands before Saturday’s game at home against the Thunder.

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The kid just keeps topping himself and upping his own ante.  Without his two best teammates and in his first game without Andrew Bogut Jennings was his typical (crazy I’m already saying this is typical, isn’t it?) self in scoring 29 points and contributing seven assists to only two turnovers.  His impact was clear right off the bat.

In the last three games, to say the Bucks have come out of the gate sluggish has been very kind.  They’ve stunk it up defensively in first quarters since the Knicks left town.  Coincidentally (or not?) Jennings hasn’t been able to get his offense going until the second half of each of those games.  On a night when the Bucks were missing their two best defenders (Bogut and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute) one might have thought it would be safe to assume the Bucks defense would struggle mightily in the first quarter again.

Think again.

It wasn’t the stingiest effort, but the Bucks played with a vigor not seen in the past few effort.  Naturally, Jennings opened the game with 17 points in the first period.  The way the team’s defense fed off his hot shooting on offense was something I am not talented enough a writer to describe.  Everyone played harder.  They played more together.  They had hands up, they had their legs in defensive croutches, they made quick decisive movements on defense and they grabbed rebounds like the wanted to crush the ball.  Energy was back on the Bucks’ side.

Sure they only took the first period 30-25, but control of the game was clear.  This was the Bucks game.

Offense

I usually don’t spend a lot of time talking about the little things.  Don’t get me wrong, I like the little things.  There are so many of them that they add up and sometimes are more important than the big things.  They can just be hard to track.  But not tonight.  Tonight the little things were clear because every time I looked up and saw a little thing getting done, it was Charlie Bell doing it.

Whether it was him diving into the crowd, coming out of the scrum with his dribble alive and the ball secure or grabbing that tipped rebound loose for anyone, it was always Bell to answer the call.  Sure, his PER isn’t great and he doesn’t get to the free throw line, but Charlie Bell deserves credit for what he’s been doing.  And how has he had so much success with those little things this year?  Charlie himself lets us know:

It’s not all about scoring.  It’s about making the right plays, making plays for teammates.  I try and lead by example.  You can talk all you want, but if you don’t go out there and do what you say you going to do, ain’t nobody going to listen to you.

• It was evident that someone aside from Jennings was going to at least provide some kind of support on offense for the Bucks Friday night and the power forward position provided the boost the Bucks needed.  Ersan Ilyasova contributed 13 points, while Hakim Warrick from his comfort zone on the bench, snapped out of a funk and pitched in 16 points.  To show he was REALLY back, Warrick even threw down a nasty dunk in the first quarter.

Defense

• I said I’d be happy with 12/12 out of Kuran Gadzuromas tonight.  Six points, ten rebounds and four assists was enough to suffice though.  Thomas was especially assertive on the glass, grabbing seven rebounds himself and always looking ready to knock anyone out who tried to pry it from his vice-grip hands.  Both provided more than enough defense on the Bobcats not-so-stellar center duo of Nazr Mohammed and Alexis Ajinca.  The Bucks spent a lot of timing matching the “we’re going small with Boris Diaw at center” Bobcats though.  In these cases, Ersan did just fine.

• About that allowing free throw thing again though … still not under control.  The Bobcats almost shot more free throws than they did field goals (43-59)!  Fortunately, no one on the ‘Cats had any shot all night from the line.  It was a very high schoolesque performance from the stripe for the Bobcats Friday.  Stephen Jackson was the biggest offender at 4-9.

• Does anyone remember when Gerald Wallace used to take it to the basket?  He apparently doesn’t, or at least he didn’t until the fourth quarter.  Wallace spent much of the game taking terrible shots from the perimeter despite the Bucks being without their interior anchor and best shot blocker.  Thanks Crash!

Overall, this was exactly what the Bucks needed heading on the road for a four game swing to the West.  In addition, they found a line-up that featured Ersan at center and Warrick at the four that allowed them to match-up well when the Bobcats went small.  If they use that to force mis-matches while Bogut is out, they might be able to survive his absence better than anyone is predicting.

They’re already off to a pretty good start.

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