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Denver Nuggets (George Karl) 10-6
Inactive: Kenyon Martin

Date: 12/01/2010
Time: 8:00 PM (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

Enemy: Roundball Mining Company

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Chauncey Billups

Before playing the actual best point guards in the league last season, Jennings said Billups was actually the best point guard in the league.  Then he put 30 on Billups and hasn’t said such nonsense since.  No, Billups isn’t the best point guard and actually, the 34-year-old Billups may no longer be better than Jennings.  Everyone assumes Jennings is the least reliable shot making point guard in the league (and by everyone, of course I mean me), but Billups is giving Jennings a run for his money.  Chauncey has hit just 36.6% of his shots this season and only 34.9% of his threes, both worse numbers than Jennings has produced.  And, despite playing in the up-tempo Nuggets offense (third in the league in pace), Billups is averaging just 4.9 assists per game against 2.7 turnovers.  Perhaps Billups is no longer the best fit for an offense that seems to thrive with a quick point guard like his backup Ty Lawson.  Oddly enough, he may be a better fit for a slower team like the Bucks while Jennings could thrive in a more open court game like the one the Nuggets play.  Oh well.

Advantage: Milwaukee

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Arron Afflalo

Salmons is second on the Bucks in minutes and has to be close to last in effectiveness this season.  Now that both Chris Douglas-Roberts and Corey Maggette are healthy, will Salmons still continue to see more than 30-minutes-per-game?  Defensively he’s far better than either CD-R or Maggette, so I wouldn’t be on a significant minute drop, but it certainly is something to keep an eye on.  Another one for 11 outing like he had in Utah won’t do his cause any favors.  Afflalo has been a very accurate shooter from deep and everywhere else this season, hitting 43.4% of his shots from three and 50.4% from the field overall.  He’s also a plus defender.  More or less, he’s everything I’d like for Luc Mbah a Moute to be some day.  But I dream … I dream.

Advantage: Denver (unless last season’s Salmons shows up)

Small Forward
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Carmelo Anthony

Anthony is fighting the flu, which is a much more difficult opponent than the Milwaukee Bucks at this point in the season.  ‘Melo told the Denver Post he would try and give it a go against the Bucks, but isn’t sure if he’ll be able to play.  I’m willing to bet he plays and scores around 20 points, but isn’t his typical effective self on the glass.  Mbah a Moute won’t make it easy for him offensively, but he will make it easy for him on offense.  If Anthony is truly ill, it would be nice to see Mbah a Moute crashing the glass especially hard on the offensive end to make him work.  That’s a real strength of Mbah a Moute and I’m sure he’ll be active.

Advantage: Denver

Power Forward
Larry Sanders vs. Shelden Williams

Here comes a battle you’ll never forget.  Actually, if Williams could get more minutes, his numbers might be fairly impressive.  That’s always been the problem with Williams though, he’s not good enough at anything to actually deserve more than 15 minutes-per-game.  He’s capitalizing on Kenyon Martin’s absence right now and producing a little bit, but he’ll soon enough be back at home on the end of the bench when Martin returns.  Sanders struggled horribly with boxing out against the Jazz and failed to make much of an impact at all.  I don’t expect the same problems against a significantly less talented matchup in this one.  Still, Williams is a more reliable for six points and six rebounds at this stage in his career than Sanders.  Less foul prone too.

Advantage: Nuggets

Center
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Nene Hilario

Hilario could be the Bucks biggest problem Wednesday night.  His offensive rating this season is a powerful 125 this season and he’s been a force around the rim, finishing on 74.5% of his attempts.  Surprisingly, Nene has attempted just eight shots per game this season.  For a player as efficient and dominant around the hoop as he is, he sure doesn’t get many looks.  If he’s able to use his size, strength and quickness advantages to wreak havoc on the offensive glass the way Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson did the other night, he could be in store for a lot of easy buckets at the rim or free throws as a result.  Ilyasova’s jumper has been on lately and Milwaukee will need his hot streak to continue.  Over the past three, he’s shooting 48.4%, which isn’t great for a power forward/center, but he balances that out by hitting 46.1% of his threes over that time span, averaging 16.3 points and 8.7 rebounds.  That is the shooting Milwaukee expects out of their stretch four.

Advantage: Nuggets

Bench
Keyon Dooling, Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Earl Boykins

vs.

Al Harrington, J.R. Smith, Ty Lawson and Chris Anderson

Take another look at the Nuggets bench.  Wow.  They have a boatload of offensive talent on their second unit and could do some big time damage against the Bucks backups, even if Maggette is ready to go.  Milwaukee would benefit a ton from a strong game from Dooling, who hasn’t had many of those this season.  Smith is ready to explode at any moment and Lawson uses his speed and quickness very well inside of the Nuggets high octane offense.

Advantage: Nuggets

Prediction: Nuggets 108 – Bucks 93

This may not be pretty.  Without Bogut, Milwaukee doesn’t have its defensive anchor to stop the high powered Nuggets offense.  Denver can beat a team from the outside or inside, and the rebounding problems Milwaukee had against Utah seem to indicate that they are ripe for exposure inside again.  The Bucks were able to stick with the Jazz for three quarters thanks largely to some hot shooting that they couldn’t sustain.  Milwaukee isn’t likely to shoot as well from downtown as they did for the first three quarters of the Jazz game, but it’s possible they could rebound better.  If they can do that and have a less offensive offensive output than they typically do, this may not be the blowout I’m envisioning.  But why should anyone suspect the Bucks shoot better than 40% at this point?

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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After intensity lagged considerably against the Clippers and Kings, one could only assume things had to get better against the Nuggets for the Bucks Saturday.  Unfortunately, they were coming off a double overtime game Friday night, got to their hotel around four in the morning Milwaukee time and were facing a team with the third best home record in the league.  So this one was over before it started.

I mean, you just can’t expect to write the Bucks off so easily and then not have them win.  That’s just not how they roll.

Forgive me for sounding like a broken record lately, but once again, the Bucks have another win that can be placed on the pedestal as “their best win of the year”.  That’s becoming a recurring theme, no?  Beat the Cavs, (still a good win even if they were without Lebron James) best win of the year.  A full strength Celtics team drops one to the Bucks: Milwaukee’s best win of the year.  The scorching hot Jazz can’t topple the Bucks either?  That was the best win of the year.  Regardless of which win was your personal favorite or which one should stand out as the signature on what’s becoming a thrill ride of a Bucks season, they all count for one and they’re all sending the same message: these Milwaukee Bucks are for real.

I will say I enjoy the road wins a little more, especially the ones against upper-echelon teams.  For so long the Bucks have been automatic losses when heading into opponents territory, even as recently as earlier this season.  Now the Bucks have a fighting chance wherever they go.  Scott Skiles said earlier this year that he thought it’d take 15 road wins for this team to make it to the playoffs.  As he was saying that he was pining for a signature road win too.  He wanted to beat a real legit team on their court, probably for the sake of his own guys’ mentality.  If they want to win in the playoffs, they’re going to have to beat some playoff teams on the road.  As recently as Saturday morning, the Bucks still hadn’t proven to themselves that they could do that.

Well, they finally did it Saturday night.  Even sweeter?  They did it in their 15^th road win.  Playoffs … playoffs … playoffs …

Offense

The strategy this season has been simple: get the ball to Andrew Bogut. So what happens when Bogut’s saddled with foul trouble like he was Saturday night?  Simple, just ride John Salmons and Carlos Delfino. What was once the Bucks biggest weakness, wing scoring, turned into their saving grace against the Nuggets.  Salmons finished with 26 points (8-16 FG 1-1 3FG 9-9 FT) and hit all six free-throws he attempted in the fourth quarter.  When it got down to the nitty gritty, Salmons didn’t fold up.  That’s a great sign for the Bucks going forward and whether he can do that consistently will have a lot to do with how far they go this year.

Delfino may have missed his final two free-throws that would have iced it, but that was about the only thing he screwed up all night.  The Argentinian finished with 21 points (6-11 FG 4-5 3FG 5-8 FT) and seven rebounds – all while shadowing Carmelo Anthony at the other end for the majority of the game.

• After stepping out of the spotlight and into the shadows for the last two games, the Bucks bench was back at it Saturday night.  Milwaukee’s reserves chipped in 32 points in Denver after scoring just 17 Friday night against the Kings.  Ersan Ilyasova did the heaviest lifting again with 14 points and 10 rebounds, but the Bucks got big contributions from Kurt Thomas (five points and six boards, while mixing in timely defense and one big assist to Ers) and Luke Ridnour (11 points on 5-8 FG).  Balance is a friend of the Bucks and the more it’s embraced, they better they play.

• The very same Milwaukee Bucks that couldn’t shoot the Clippers out of a zone last Wednesday have now 23 of 51 (45 %) threes in their last two games.  A good barometer of the Bucks shooting prowess is often Delfino and his 4-5 effort from deep in the Bucks win Saturday was as huge as his absence in the loss Wednesday.

Defense

20-62.  That’s the combined makes and attempts for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith against the Bucks.  For those that aren’t math whizzes, that means Milwaukee held three of Denver’s best offensive players to 32% shooting.  The collective efforts of Delfino, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Salmons, Brandon Jennings and Thomas were terrific.  With Bogut’s minutes limited due to foul trouble, the Bucks were allowing more offensive rebounds than they usually do, but somehow were able to keep it together defensively.  I’ll give a lot of credit to the wing players for their effort on Billups and Anthony, but it’s hard for me to quantify Kurt Thomas’ impact.  He was clogging up the middle on defense and being physical with the Nuggets.  That makes a huge difference.  The team that showed up for the Bucks Saturday and brought buckets of defensive intensity, physicality and effort is a lot closer to the team the Bucks will be come playoff time.

• The Nuggets shoot a lot of free-throws and the Bucks are a very aggressive defensive team.  That spelled disaster heading into Saturday’s game and played out as everyone expected.  Denver shot 30-38 from the free-throw line while the Bucks were just 23-28.  Considering Milwaukee was out-fouling Denver 14-5 at one point that isn’t such a big difference.  The Bucks seem to be getting better at this as the season’s gone on and the acquisition of Salmons has only helped.  He’s denying the straight line penetration guys like Tyreke Evans and Carmelo Anthony could have got earlier this year.

Final Thoughts

After a 2-1 trip out West, Milwaukee now has five straight at home.  That’s a big deal.  Milwaukee’s been incredibly tough to beat in Milwaukee and have got to be flying high after the big wins against Sacramento and Denver.  I can only imagine that the Bucks suspect they’re the third best team in the East and a team with that sort of confidence and their defensive intensity is dangerous.  And fun too.  For proof that these guys are having a blast right now we need look no further than Scott Skiles after Saturday’s improbable win.  Rarely will you see him so much as crack a smile, but Skiles was slapping his guys on the back and on the receiving end of a headlock from Carlos Delfino.

It reminded me of the 2001 season, when Tim Thomas grew so fond of rubbing George Karl’s head after wins.  Those were good times.

And so are these.

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(Likely) Inactives: Johan Petro

At

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-2

(Likely) Inactives: Michael Redd, Joe Alexander and Francisco Elson

Game Time: 7:00

TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Chauncey Billups

Billups is the ideal result of any combo point guard in the league.  He bounced around, people weren’t sure if he was a scorer or a passer, but he figured things out about six years into his career.  The idea of Chauncey Billups is probably as intimidating as any match-up for point guards in the league.  Billups is the go-to-guy whenever someone is describing a veteran, muscley, big, winning point guard.  Upon arriving in Denver last year, Billups changed the culture and held players accountable as defenders and teammates.  At 33, Billups is still going strong thanks to a game that relies on strength and smarts rather than speed.  Jennings will learn a lot by watching the tape of this one when it’s done.

Advantage: Nuggets

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Aaron Afflalo

Bell and Afflalo essentially need to be the same player.  Both are expected to play good defense and hit open shots.  Neither really needs to create much and both have someone more capable of providing offense backing them up.  They are simply counted on to be more consistent (if less explosive) than the guys backing them up and keep the ball moving.  They both fill their roles fairly well and will likely see decreases in playing time as “Earl” (I’ll explain in the bench section) and Jodie Meeks get more acclimated to this season.

Advantage: Nuggets

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Carmelo Anthony

If the season were to end right now, it Anthony would be on the short list of names on the MVP ballot.  Anthony ranks third in the league in PER, second in scoring, second in field goals, free throws made and attempted.  On top of all of this, Anthony has cut his turnovers by nearly one per game.  His offensive rating is an all time  high ten points higher than his defensive (118-108).  Simply put, Anthony is a beast this year.  Carlos Delfino is not, but he did hit two threes in the first quarter against the Knicks, so he’s got that going for him.  I’d expect Delfino to see fewer minutes than Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in this one though, as long as LRMAM performs like last year’s LRMAM and not the struggling version that has shown up this year.  LRMAM may give the Bucks a better chance of slowing the powerhouse Anthony regardless of which version shows up.

Advantage: Nuggets (I emphasize ADVANTAGE here too)

Power Forward

Hakim Warrick vs. Kenyon Martin

Martin is a stronger more ideal version of Hakim Warrick.  Or at least he was.  Martin is not the athlete he once was and shoots an ever increasing amount of perimeter jumpers with varying degrees of success.  Martin has taken more shots from 16-23 feet this year than he’s taken at the rim.  The Martin of six or seven years ago was much better offensively, but Martin hasn’t lost much on defense.  Martin can still catch lobs and throw down in traffic, but not with the same regularity he once did after two serious knee surgeries.  Warrick’s dunks have been a terrific source of energy time and again for the Bucks and he’s been crashing the boards on offense with great regularity.

Advantage: Nuggets

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Nene

Nene lead the league last year in true shooting percentage (takes into account two’s, three’s and free throws) and, remarkably, is doing even better in this category this season.  The biggest difference in Bogut and Nene’s offense is that Nene gets to the line more and converts at a higher rate.  He’s taken 28 more free throws than Bogut and shoots at a rate that is nearly 20% better.  Nene is fourth in the league in free throw attempts per field goal attempts.  Nene is also a great athlete able to run the floor and stay with the up-tempo Nuggets.  Plus he beat cancer, which is extra cool.  This will be a very good test for Bogut after a few strong games in a row.

Advantage: Nuggets

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Jodie Meeks, LRMAM, Ersan Ilyasova and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

“Earl” Smith III, Ty Lawson, Anthony Carter, Chris Anderson

Who is “Earl” Smith III?  J.R. Smith has emerged from his season opening seven game suspension with a supposed new outlook and a request for a new name.  J.R. wants to be referred to as “Earl III” from now on (it’s his given name).  I will acquiesce to his request.  Call him what you may, he’s part of a very talented Nugget bench.  Smith can put up 40 on any given night, Ty Lawson is one of two rookie point guards with a higher PER than Brandon Jennings and Chris Anderson is one of the best rebounders and shot blockers that doesn’t start in the entire league.  The Bucks counter with their five deep rotation of defenders and role players.

Advantage: Nuggets

Prediction: Bucks 103 – Nuggets 107

This one may be a wake-up call for the Bucks after a couple of teams that looked like they would have problems scoring in an empty gym in Minnesota and New York.  The Nuggets are third in the league in offensive rating (though sure to drop after a poor performance in a win in Chicago Tuesday) and seventh in pace.  This year they’ve had games in which they’ve scored 133, 111 and 122.  They get up and down and score with efficiency.  It all starts with Anthony.  ‘Melo dropped 33 on the Bucks in their meeting last February and got to the free throw line 16 times.  That’s been a problem for the Bucks again this year and should be a focus for the Nuggets.  The Bucks showed they do have some scoring punch against the Knicks and they’ll need all of it against a not-so-great defensively Nuggets team to keep up.

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