Inactives: Francisco Elson, Joe Alexander and Mike Redd

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New York Knicks (Mike D’antoni) 19-29

Inactives: Eddy Curry, Cuttino Mobley and Darko Milicic

Date: 2/5/2010

Time: 6:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Nate Robinson

I guess Mike D’antoni wanted to spare the world the Brandon Jennings/Chris Duhon “who will miss more shots” matchup.  Robinson is taking over at the point guard spot beginning Friday, which is bad timing for Milwaukee.  If Duhon wasn’t the worst starting point guard in the league, he wasn’t far from the bottom.  I know Jennings has struggled shooting the ball for the majority of this year, but at least he’s young, what’s Duhon’s excuse?  Duhon and Jennings both shot 32 percent from the field in January, a frigid shooting percentage for a frigid month.  Robinson is electric offensively, but didn’t play for 14 straight games earlier this year, for no other reason than D’Antoni wasn’t feeling him.  He’s less of a point guard and more of a scorer, but he excels at that.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Wilson Chandler

Another long, athletic, slashing shooting guard for Charlie Bell to work on after Vince Carter gave him fits in Orlando.  Every year, Chandler has taken a couple more shots at the rim each game and every year he gets a little better as a player.  The more he uses his incredible athleticism to his advantage, the better he’ll be in the league.  His three-point shooting has gone from average to not very good at all, so the less he’s shooting anything other than wide open shots the more opportunities he’ll give himself for success.  Chandler seems more like a small forward playing the two guard spot, if they could find a good shooter to put next to him he may be even better.

Advantage: Knicks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Jared Jeffries

A lengthy defender who can do a lot of things on defense and roughly zero things on offense, Jeffries goal Friday will likely be nothing more than to give Delfino problems.  When Delfino has been on lately, the Bucks have been pretty tough to beat.  In recent losses to Toronto and Orlando, Delfino couldn’t find his shot and the rest of the Bucks followed suit.  Delfino is one of few Bucks that can get to the rim and is in an even more exclusive group of Bucks that can finish when they get there.  Jeffries length may give Delfino some problems in getting open looks outside, so he’ll have to be ready to shoot right when he catches.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Danilo Gallinari

Gallinari is probably shooting a three right now.  David Thorpe, when talking about the shooting prowess of Stephen Curry, recently said that he thought Curry might make the most three’s in this decade, though he conceded he’d have to vie for that crown with Gallinari.  Gallinari is 6’10.  As stretchy a four as stretch four’s can be is Gallinari, but that doesn’t make him a bad matchup for the Bucks.  Mbah a Moute can hang with most players outside and Gallinari is no different a case.  Unfortunately, the Bucks can’t go to Mbah a Moute to try and expose “The Rooster” defensively, as Mbah a Moute isn’t very good at all on offense.

Advantage: Knicks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. David Lee

Ah, here’s what we’ve been waiting to see.  One all-star snub vs. another, with Bogut, the classic back down big man, against Lee, the burgeoning point-center who can put it on the floor, lay it for someone else, or dunk it himself.  Both of them are among the best rebounders in the league, racking up double-doubles on a near nightly basis.  Bogut has a quickness advantage over lots of centers in the league, but not Lee.  Lee is ultra-quick and can explode for dunks.  Each should pose a different set of problems for the other defensively, though Bogut is a much better overall defender than Lee, who chooses not to participate on that end very often.  I’m sure each has heard the other’s name mentioned a lot with regard to all-star candidacy, so it’ll be interesting to see how they react as they should be more than up for this challenge.  Fortunately for the Bucks, Bogut’s had two days off since Orlando, which always increases the odds he’ll do well.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick and Jerry Stackhouse

Vs.

Al Harrington, Larry Hughes, Toney Douglas, Jonathan Bender and Chris Duhon

Harrington is one of those guys who comes in and gets buckets immediately.  He’s capable of a 40-point showing off the bench and not many guys are capable of that.  If he gets hot from three, he’ll fire without remorse regardless of whether or not it’s a good shot.  Hughes has been in Mike D’antoni’s bizarre revolving door doghouse lately and in response has grown quite the beard of defiance.  He got some run against the Wizards though and with Chris Duhon not being very good, we’ll see where this goes.  Duhon might play, he might not play, it’s tough to tell how far he’s been demoted.  If he doesn’t play, Toney Douglas or Jonahtan Bender may be in line for more run.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 107 – Knicks 97

With two days off after the loss in Orlando, the Bucks are in prime position to steal another one on the road in New York.  The Knicks last played Wednesday, so they’ve had time to rest as well, but they don’t really have an answer for a healthy and rested Andrew Bogut underneath.  The Bucks would be well advised to pound it in to him every chance they get and try to get the Knicks down early.  Offensively the Knicks can come back from an early deficit, but they don’t exactly have the most mental toughness out there.  When the Bucks were able to jump on them early in Milwaukee in November, the Knicks pretty much folded up shop and gave in.  That’s the kind of effort the Bucks will be looking to get out of them again.

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Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Chris Duhon

The Knicks give 16 more points per 100 possessions when Duhon is on the court.  They score 98 and allow 114 with him per every 100 possessions.  Duhon’s PER is 10.5.  The league average is 15.  Duhon is 6-29 on three point shots this year.  Duhon was scoreless in 39 minutes against the Cavaliers on Friday night.  Duhon is making $6 million this year and prevented the Knicks from really making a run at Allen Iverson or Ramon Sessions on one or two year deals at below market value for either player.  Do I need to say anymore for you to know who has the edge in this match-up?

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Larry Hughes

In his prime, Larry Hughes was a terror in the passing lanes on defense and a slashing guard that could finish at the rim and handle the ball like a point guard on offense.  Capable of 20 points and two or three steals a night, Hughes in his prime was the prototypical big point/two guard.  Hughes is no longer in his prime.  Hughes has never been an especially strong shooter.  At this point Hughes is probably as average a starting shooting guard as there is in the league.  Fortunately for Larry Hughes, Charlie Bell is a below average starting shooting guard and one with limited size.  Hughes should be able to exploit his match-up with Bell and cheat in the passing lanes and get a good jump in the Knicks transition game.

Advantage: Knicks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Wilson Chandler

I could have sworn Wilson Chandler was really good, I was certain of it.  That’s what the D’Antoni system can do for you.  Chandler is having an even worse season when comparing offensive and defensive ratings than Duhon.  He’s -19!  He was better last year at -7, but was still negative and had a PER of 12.9.  The Knicks are just one average player after the next.  This is the team that wants to get Lebron James? Keep dreaming.  I know at some point Chandler has been mentioned as one of the building blocks they’re using to lure James.  Wilson Chandler isn’t going to get that done folks.  Chandler is a poor three point shooter, but has some upside as a rebounding small forward.  He’s like a slightly worse shooting more athletic version of Delfino, but without the occasional ball handling skill.  I know you’re as unimpressed as I am.  And now I’m certain Chandler will put up 35 and torch the Bucks from all over because A. that’s what happens when I say anyone isn’t good and B. that kind of thing can happen any night with anyone in this system.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Hakim Warrick vs. Danilo Gallinari

Gallinari matches up at the power forward spot, but he’s about as far from a traditional power forward as possible.  Gallinari is putting up 9.4 three pointers a game and hitting at 42.6%!  Mike D’Antoni has called him the best shooter he’s ever seen and others call him “The Rooster”.  To Hakim Warrick I say this, call him whatever you want, just don’t leave him open in transition, because he will burn you with the three point shot.  Of all the Knick starters, he worries me the most.

Advantage: Knicks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. David Lee

Lee is probably grabbing a rebound right now.  Lee’s a walking double double in this system.  Hell, he was a double digit rebounder before D’Antoni came around.  Lee is crazy athletic and has a motor that never stops.  Lee is exactly the type of power forward I would love to see the Bucks get eventually to pair up with Brandon Jennings.  Problem for Lee right now is that he’s playing center and a center he is not.  In the half court Bogut should give him all kinds of problems, but he’s without question a superior athlete and will beat Bogut up and down in transition.  It’s imperative that Bogut keep Lee off the offensive boards.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jodie Meeks, Luke Ridnour, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

Al Harrington, Darko Milicic, Jared Jeffries and Tony Douglas

The Bucks went ten deep on Friday with no player logging more than 30 minutes.  Skiles likes to play match-ups, so expect to see Dan Gadzuric get minutes as the Bucks try and stay with New York’s thoroughbreds.  Jodie Meeks also may get significant minutes again after settling down in the second half Friday.  The Knicks leading scorer is Harrington, who has been coming off the bench since game three where he put up over 40.  Harrington has made a living shooting the three and playing little defense, but is shooting more free throws than ever before this year at nearly eight a game (his career average is 3.3 per game).  Harrington may be able to exploit that against the Bucks, but the rest of the Knicks bench offers little in the way of offense or defense.

Prediction: Bucks 95-Knicks 88

95 points constitutes a shootout for this season’s Bucks team.  Milwaukee has broke 90 only once this year, but may have to if they want to beat the fast paced Knicks.  The Knicks lead the league in three point attempts, but only are connecting (stats as of before Friday night’s game) at a 28.5% clip.  That’s not the recipe for success.  Scott Skiles will be glad to offer a cursory challenge of the Knicks wild threes, as long as they don’t bring it inside and aren’t grabbing rebounds.

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