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Game Four Preview: We could have a real series here

April 26th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 5 comments

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 1-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-1

Date: 4/26/2010
Time: 7:30
TV: NBA TV & FS Wisconsin

Keep Smith Contained

Milwaukee and Josh Smith combined to do a great job stopping Josh Smith in game two. As much as I’d love to slather all the credit on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, I’ll admit that it seems like Smith just didn’t have the same lift he’d had in the previous few games. Specifically on the offensive glass and in transition, he wasn’t the same. Smith had five dunks and layups in transition and on the offensive glass in game two. Saturday at the Bradley Center, Smith was 1-6 combined in transition and after offensive rebounds. Some of this was good help defense after he grabbed boards, some of this was luck. For the game, Smith was 2-10 at the rim. Don’t expect another performance like that. Milwaukee will just have to make the Hawks top athlete work hard for everything he gets and keep a body on him at all times. Making his life difficult should be the Bucks focus once again.

10 3’s Again?

Okay, so Milwaukee had enough breathing room, they didn’t need all 10 of the threes they hit Saturday. But three point shooting will still more or less define the Bucks for however long this season goes on. Saturday didn’t appear to be much of an aberration either. No Bucks player hit more than three from distance and no one shot over 50% on their three point shots. If anything, the Bucks could expect Carlos Delfino to perform slightly better than he has been lately. Milwaukee’s game is all about moving the ball and finding open shooters and their seven assists on 10 three point shots indicates they did that very well on Saturday. Maybe Milwaukee won’t hit another 10 threes Monday night, but there is some reason to expect another strong performance again on Monday night and not the disastrous ones that were games one and two.

More (or just as much) Gadz

I vividly recall thinking Terry Porter’s biggest mistake in 2004 was not giving Dan Gadzuric virtually any burn in the Bucks first round series against a much larger Detroit Pistons squad. This was back when Gadz was still young and before he got “The Contract”, so everyone loved him and he seemed to have a bright future. I called for him over and over, but he logged just nine minutes in the Bucks 4-1 losing effort of a series. Predictably, as I look back, I see that in those nine minutes his PER was 24.6 and he had the teams’ second best defensive rating.

Now, all these years later, I’m still finding myself wanting Gadz on the court in the post season. Sure, it has a lot to do with Andrew Bogut being out and Kurt Thomas being most productive in limited minutes, but it’s strange how some things stay the same. Gadzuric was a terror in his 17 minutes Saturday night, racking up five fouls and 10 rebounds in classic Gazuric style. He had an absurd 33.2 rebound rate, meaning he grabbed roughly a third of available rebounds while he was on the court. If he plays to his strength, rebounding and running around like a mad man, he can impact this series in a positive way.

Brandon Jennings Early and Often

Jennings started things out with a bang on Saturday, then had plenty of time to rest in the fourth quarter. I can’t see Atlanta coming out with the same lackluster effort that allowed Milwaukee free reign on Saturday, so he’ll likely log more minutes and more meaningful ones Monday night. When Jennings gets the Bucks going they seem to play loads better. If he’s feeling it on Monday night, he should absolutely not be shy about getting his shot off whenever he pleases. Sometimes when he’s feeling it, it seems like he backs off to get other guys involved. I guess that’s the instincts of a guy who’s a classic point guard, but sometimes Milwaukee needs him to take over like he did in game one. I have a lot more confidence in Jennings than I do in a lot of other players on this team

Keep Dodging The Crawford Bullet

The likely sixth man of the year, Jamal Crawford has made a season of blowing up off the bench for the Hawks. This series he’s 11-34 and has served as more of a thorn in the side of Atlanta than Milwaukee. But, this is Jamal Crawford we’re talking about. He’s liable to go off for 30 at any given time. In game one he did some typical Jamal Crawford stuff, pulling up for crazy threes and drilling them to take the air out of the Bucks sails when a potential comeback was on the horizon. Milwaukee will need to keep doing whatever they’ve been doing against Crawford and hope his tough shots keep out of the net.

So, maybe this is possible: Bucks 107 – Hawks 89

April 24th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 1 comment

I remember walking out of the Bradley Center on March 28th feeling very good about things. Milwaukee had just defeated the Grizzlies, the day was still young after the early game, the temperature was in the 60’s and a possible successful playoff run was on the horizon.  Now, less than one month later, clouds draped the air on a cold and damp Saturday afternoon when I approached. It was almost too perfect a representation of Milwaukee’s season.

What was once so bright, had turned so dim that the light was nearly off

And then Brandon Jennings hit a three and busted out the three point monocle.

And then he did it again.

And again.

Then John Salmons got involved. When it was all said and done, Milwaukee was up 36-19 after one, the Jennings/Salmons duo was 9-10 and the brightness had officially returned to Milwaukee’s season.

Surprise seems to be the appropriate reaction, but should anyone really be shocked? Atlanta was a below average road team this season, MIlwaukee was an above average home team and Milwaukee had shot very poorly from three in the first two games. All those factors seemed to work in Milwaukee’s favor.

There was some smaller things Milwaukee did well to get themselves off first round life support — switching Luc Richard Mbah a Moute onto Josh Smith comes to mind — but remembering that they at one time used to hit open shots this season was by and large the most important thing Milwaukee did in game three.

Offense

I’ve been saying it and saying it: eventually the Bucks would start hitting some shots. All it took was getting back to the comforts of home. After three point shooting percentages that rivaled the temperatures on a normal winter day in Wisconsin, the Bucks finally found the bottom of the net on Saturday evening, hitting 10-21 3s. I actually pinpointed 10 as the number of threes the Bucks would need to hit to win game two, so I guess I was just a game early.

For all the coaching adjustments, matching up and other things that go into a playoff series, sometimes it’s the simple things that end up making the biggest difference. For the Bucks, that “little thing” was finally hitting the three at a respectable clip.

  • I said this during the Daily Dime Live Chat and I’ll say it again: what a relief it must have been for the Bucks coaching staff and entire Bradley Center crowd to see Kurt Thomas’ long lost 15-foot jumper. Thomas finished 4-4 from the field. He looked good scoring eight points and grabbing 13 rebounds. Thomas and Delfino have deservedly shouldered plenty of blame for the Bucks struggles in the first two games, but it’s only appropriate to mention how Thomas’ playing his typical game played a big part in the Bucks taking game three.  Milwaukee doesn’t need Thomas to do anything outside of his comfort zone, they just need him to do things longer than he might be built for at this point. The three days off seemed to do wonders for him.  
  • Yes, Brandon Jennings did cool off once again. But that didn’t mean he stopped contributing. As my first defense in this case I’d present his behind the back pass to Jerry Stackhouse after hounding Mike Bibby into a turnover. Stack finished with a dunk and senior citizens everywhere were suddenly inspired. Jennings was 5-11 (3-6 3FG) and scored 13 points to go with five assists.
  • While Jennings couldn’t maintain his hot start, John Salmons did. Yet again.  The Bucks big pickup (seriously, shouldn’t he get to hold John Hammond’s executive of the year award for a few months a year) came through when Milwaukee needed him the most with 22 points on 9-11 shooting. Even better, Salmons tallied seven assists and was creating for the Bucks who can’t create so much for themselves. He’s a humanitarian that John Salmons.

Defense

If I had the power to write things on the Bucks chalk board before games I would have wrote these three words in all caps: STOP JOSH SMITH. And you know what? I would have been pleased with Milwaukee’s effort in doing just that. Unequivocally the biggest thorn in the side of the Bucks through the first two games, Smith finally was contained a bit. Smith had been feasting on offensive rebound putbacks and fast break dunks, but the Bucks weren’t giving anything easy away to him on Saturday. Sure, he still managed  nine offensive rebounds, but few of them resulted in dunks for him or points at all for the Hawks. Atlanta scored just 12 second chance points on 6-18 shooting. After shooting over 70% through the first two games, Smith finished Saturday’s game 2-12. Someone find Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s belt and put another notch in it.

  • So what’s the more accurate representation of this Hawks team? The over 50% efforts from the field they had in games one and two, or this sub-40% shooting effort they produced Saturday night? It’s probably somewhere in the middle. The key to keeping them down for Milwaukee was preventing all the easy baskets they got in games one and two. When Josh Smith was heading in for a dunk, he had Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Thomas and Dan Gadzuric meeting him at the rim. Defensively, Milwaukee was simply a much more confident group.
  • I’d be remiss to let a nice night from Dan Gadzuric go by without pointing it out though. After many cries from the crowd for Gadzuric after Thomas struggled so badly in the first two games, Gadz saw 17 minutes and produced 10 rebounds. It’s just what he does.

Final Thoughts

I now find myself wondering, “will we ever get a good game in this series?”  The Hawks seem prone to both blowouts and doing the blowing out, but I can’t help but expect game four to be a lot closer than game three either way. Milwaukee will not continue to shoot at the clips they did and the hawks will probably find a way to put some more points on the board.  But as my final final thought, I did really enjoy something I saw from Milwaukee that I haven’t in years.

The mild-mannered Luke Ridnour holding his pose on a three to put the Bucks up 93-65 with the shot clock running down.  If you think Brandon Jennings wasn’t the rookie of the year, I get that.  But don’t try and tell me he didn’t have more of an impact on a team than any other rookie. This one started with Jennings and the monocle and ended with Ridnour holding his pose. These are not your slightly older brother’s Bucks NBA fans.

Diet Celtics – 50% like the real thing: Bucks 106 – Celtics 95

April 15th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt Comments off

With the Miami Heat emerging victorious (sadly and barely) from their last game of the season against New Jersey, clinching the fifth seed and leaving the Bucks to play the Hawks in the three-six matchup, it’s hard to get too excited about any of the positives that came from the Bucks Wednesday night win over Boston.

It’s merely evident now that Milwaukee’s jayvee plus team can defeat the Celtics freshman team.  And I think that was probably a safe bet already.  Milwaukee has pounded into us all season that they have good depth.  From one through eleven, Milwaukee can plug different guys into different lineups and compete with most starters and defeat most benches.

Once again Wednesday night, Milwaukee got productive games out of Luke Ridnour, Jerry Stackhouse, Ersan Ilyasova and even …

*gasp* Dan Gadzuric?

Yes, under the right circumstances even old Gadzuric can look good again.

But the circumstances will be much different in the playoffs now.  The Hawks have been a problem for Milwaukee all season.  Hell, they’ve been a problem for the majority of the league all season.  A group that’s been playing together for years now, Atlanta has the versatility, the star power, the defense and the offense to make a deep run into the playoffs and even scare the East’s top two.

If Milwaukee were about to embark on a playoff series with Boston, the questions would be how many games could Milwaukee win?  Would the Celtics lose their cool during the series, specifically Rasheed Wallace. Could Milwaukee capitalize on any of those moments and gain some momentum?  Basically, the questions about that potential series were full of hope and possibility.  It would still be a long shot, but Milwaukee would at least be on the verge of a series that was going to likely have some give and take.

Now I can’t help but ask questions like, how is this series going to look any different than Monday night?  Will Milwaukee shoot over 42% in any of the games?  How many points is Joe Johnson going to average?  My feelings of hope and excitement have withered away significantly.  I know asking the big “What If” about Andrew Bogut won’t do any good, but it keeps coming back to me and gnawing at me.

But I guess it is what it is.  The bottom line is that the Bucks are still going to be playing playoff games again this year, which is still a terrific feat.  And I’m glad we got this final game of the regular season out of the way.  Now, as Brandon Jennings so elegantly put it after Monday night’s game against Atlanta, we can just “lace ‘em up and let’s hoop.” Read more…

Role Playing Game: Bucks 108 – Nets 89

April 7th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 2 comments

Recap/Box Score

One of the many keys to continued success the rest of the way for the Milwaukee Bucks was prominently on display Wednesday night at the Bradley Center.  They need balance.  A team that lacks a true star to begin with, the Bucks have needed to get something out of everyone all year, even before Andrew Bogut’s injury.  Now, they need balance more than ever.  And when they get it, good things can happen.  Milwaukee was about as balanced as they could be in their 108-89 victory over the Nets Wednesday night – 120 minutes for the starters, 120 minutes for the reserves.

While the Bucks starters were outscored 64-59 on the night, the bench did their part and then some, out-scoring New Jersey’s backups 49-25.  This shouldn’t have been surprising though.  The Nets are 11-67 for a reason.  They have some starters that are above-average players, but their bench is full of young, inexperienced and, as far as I could tell, relatively uninterested players.  New Jersey certainly looked the part of the league’s bottom feeder.  Everyone was hooting and hollering from the sidelines during a fast start by Devin Harris, but there was a clear sense of indifference as the game began to slip away.  But hey, a job is a job, and if I had a stat at my work that said we’d only had a successful day 11 out of the last 77 times we operated, I’d be waiting for a vacation myself.  But back to the bench.

Role player was a fitting definition of the Bucks reserves on this evening. Read more…

You Know What This Is…: Bucks 79 – Bulls 74

April 6th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 4 comments

(UPDATE:  Easy baskets were hard to come by in last night’s Bucks-Bulls game, so Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook takes a look at the play that swung the game in the Bucks favor.  A Brandon Jennings to Ersan Ilyasova fastbreak basket.)

It’s a celebration. Take it away Kanye (more accurately, some kid lip-syncing Kanye).

Now everyone can take a breath.  The worst case scenario cannot come to pass.  The Milwaukee Bucks are officially going to be in the playoffs.

It was fitting the Bucks clinched in a game filled with errant jumpers, ball-control, defense and anything else that’s unsexy about basketball.  After all, this is a team that’s second from the bottom of the league in field goal percentage, has turned the ball over the fifth fewest times and has the third highest defensive rating.  “Fear the Deer” has been the team’s calling card of late, but Tuesday’s victory was certainly more the “Work Hard, Play Hard” variety.

Certainly, sub-40% shooting (36.4% on the night for Milwaukee) efforts will not strike fear into the hearts of future Bucks opponents.  But right now Milwaukee is anything but a finished project heading into the playoffs.  As nice as it is to sit back and enjoy the clinch, Milwaukee still has a considerable amount of work ahead of them before April 17th.  Near the top of that list is figuring out how the remaining pieces fit together.

Milwaukee tried out some different lineups Tuesday and they’ll likely do some mixing and matching again Wednesday.  The playoffs will not wait until the Bucks are comfortable in their new roles, so there is no time for Milwaukee to wait to figure out who’s going to need to do what. Read more…