Maybe?

Maybe the Milwaukee Bucks can pull out a big win against the Indiana Pacers on Friday night at Conseco Fieldhouse.  Maybe they can keep their season alive for at least one more night.  They’ve done far more improbable things against the Pacers this season already.  It won’t be easy though.  Not against a motivated team looking to earn playoff seasoning to better the taste of their future.  Does that sound familiar?

These Pacers are not unlike the Bucks of a year ago (read this article and tell me you don’t think of the Bucks circa last season, pluses and minuses), but possibly with an even brighter future than the one Milwaukee dreamed of before Andrew Bogut’s arm injury dumped a bucket of cold water on the franchise.

There are no Pacers over 30 who figure to play a significant role in their immediate future.  Though Danny Granger has seen his stock and shooting percentage dip a bit over the past two years, he still gives them, at the very least, the idea of a guy who can close out games.  The Pacers have a promising young prospect in Paul George and $30 million in what amounts to dead weight coming off their roster this off-season.

Imagine if Milwaukee had a season slightly better than the one it has had this season, but without the trade for Corey Maggette, the signing of John Salmons or the signing of Drew Gooden. And imagine the Bucks failed to make the playoffs last season and wants that first taste as bad now as they did then.  That’s kind of the Pacers right now.  Last season’s Bucks youth and optimism, minus last off-season’s acquisitions, plus what could have been this coming off-season’s clearing of bad salaries.

Does that sound like a team this Bucks squad is going to knock off?

Not really.  But that’s the other thing about the Pacers.  Given that they aren’t as strong as last season’s Bucks, they aren’t exactly a sure bet to win the games they are supposed to win.  They haven’t used the second half to notify the rest of the league that they are a young, up and coming squad to be watched.  Last month, the month during which the Pacers could have locked down their final playoff spot, they lost to Minnestoa, Toronto, Detroit and Sacramento.  They haven’t exactly swept the leg.

But Friday is Indiana’s big chance to make a statement about the final playoff spot.  It’s their opportunity to finish off Milwaukee once and for all and make this thing a two team race.

All the while leaving Bucks fans to wonder where their team could be heading this off-season with a lottery pick and two significant expiring contracts.

Read more…

(Jeremy’s out today, so Brian Matzat is back at it with the preview.)

Enemy: 8 Points 9 Seconds

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Darren Collison

Darren Collison surprised everyone with his stellar play when Chris Paul went down last season. After getting traded to the Pacers in the offseason, Collison was handed the starting job when he arrived. Collison is averaging 14p/3r/4a per game on 46% shooting. On paper, Jennings is a better volume scorer, with his current statline reading 18p/4r/5a on 39% shooting. It’s hard to tell who will win this matchup. When the Bucks beat the Pacers 94-90 on the road in November, Jennings had 18 points on 7-19 shooting with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 2 turnovers. Collison blanketed Jennings with 19 points on 5-13 shooting, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 5 steals, and 3 turnovers. Jennings has a knack for playing better in Milwaukee, so edge goes to the good guys.

Advantage: Bucks

Read more…

(Preview is a little light today, I’ll explain later.)

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 1-4
Inactive: Chris Douglas-Roberts, Darington Hobson, Michael Redd

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Indiana Pacers (Jim O’Brien) 2-2
Inactive: Lance Stephenson, Brandon Rush, Jeff Foster

Date: 11/05/2010
Game Time: 6:00 CST
Television: Nah, not in Milwaukee

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Darren Collison

Two young point guards, both battling inconsistency.  Collison set the league on fire for a while last season when replacing Chris Paul in New Orleans, but he’s had some ups and downs in Indiana.  Collison’s shooting just 37% on the year, but he’s nearly maintained his assist rate from last season (32% last year, 30% this year).  Jennings’ shot has been inconsistent this season, just like it was last season.  He’s done a good job setting up teammates, but needs to make himself more of an offensive threat every night.  Of course, Jennings can still do something amazing on any given night.  The highs and the lows with him can be maddening.

Advantage: Pacers Read more…

Recap/Box Score

Saturday night I ventured to Buffalo Wild Wings for dinner.  Unfortunately, the wait was to be over 30 minutes and my friends and I were too hungry to wait..  With a lack of other options in the area, we settled on Applebees.

I’m not an Applebees guy; they’ve screwed up my mediocre food far too many times, so I was heading there with trepidation to begin with.  The mental transition I had to make in going from wings at BW3’s to whatever I’d have at Applebees had me down too.  Naturally, after we were seated and ordered, each of my friends received their food, while mine didn’t arrive.  A mistake was made, the order wasn’t placed and my food wasn’t ready.  I had to wait another 10 minutes to get my food.

My meal ended up being better than I expected and they gave it to me on the house for my troubles, so when it was all said and done I was pretty pleased with the end result.  Still, the process I went through was unsatisfying.

And by describing my Saturday evening dining experience, I’ve more or less told you the story of the Bucks-Pacers game Sunday afternoon.  The Bucks played down to the Pacers level, which made for some sloppy basketball and an overall unsatisfying experience.  Coming off three straight thrillers against Cleveland, Boston and Utah, I didn’t expect this one to be high theater, but I was hoping for a crisp game at least.  I shouldn’t be surprised though.  If the Bucks last three opponents are the equivalent to my BW3’s, then Indiana is absolutely my Applebees.

Still, the Bucks got the W and no matter what the game looked like Milwaukee is one step closer to a playoff spot and a fifth seed.  And that sounds about as good as a free meal to me. Read more…

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 28-28

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Indiana Pacers (Jim O’Brien) 19-38

Larry Legend has been Lotto Larry for a few years in Indy now.

Date: 2/25/2010

Time: 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Earl Watson

Jennings numbers continue to look pedestrian, but his impact is evident in the success his teammates are having.  Five Bucks scored in double figures Wednesday night and three more scored nine points.  If a team doesn’t have a good point guard, it’s difficult to get that kind of even distribution, even in a blowout.  Jennings always keeps the offense running smooth and didn’t record a turnover against New Orleans.  Jennings’ usage is at 26, his assist rate is right around 30 while his turnover rate is only 12.6.  Let me take Deron Williams as an example of where Jennings is having success.  Williams’ numbers in those categories are as follows, 23.6, 42.7 and 17.2.  If just a few more times nightly, Jennings were to hit an open shooter leading to a successful three-point shot, Jennings could conceivably close in on the first two numbers while keeping his turnover number down.  He’s not all that far off from Williams and if he used a few less possessions statistically, as a point guard he’d be in the class directly below Williams.  That doesn’t say anything about his offensive struggles with shooting, which would bring his overall game down a little further.  Bottom line, Jennings has been a VERY good point guard.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…