Five Questions with Dave Berri
Recently, I had the chance to exchange emails with noted basketball analyst Dave Berri. Berri was one of few analysts who saw potential in the Bucks at the start of the season, pegging them to finish sixth in the East. Berri’s new book, Stumbling On Wins, is available on Amazon.com now and will be in stores soon.
The Milwaukee Bucks in 2009-10
After 71 games (team has won 39 games)
WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes
Data taken from Basketball-Reference.com
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| Milwaukee Bucks | Minutes | Wins Produced 2009-10 | WP48 | Wins Produced 2008-09 | WP48** | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bogut | 2072 | 9.8 | 0.226 | 8.8 | 0.204 | 1 |
| Carlos Delfino*** | 2012 | 7.3 | 0.173 | 5.9 | 0.142 | 1.3 |
| Ersan Ilyasova*** | 1618 | 5.5 | 0.163 | -2.2 | -0.066 | 7.7 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | 1643 | 4.7 | 0.138 | 4.9 | 0.142 | -0.1 |
| Luke Ridnour | 1513 | 4.3 | 0.137 | 3.3 | 0.106 | 1 |
| Brandon Jennings* | 2335 | 3.1 | 0.064 | 3.1 | 0.064 | 0 |
| John Salmons | 715 | 1.6 | 0.108 | 1.6 | 0.107 | 0 |
| Hakim Warrick | 1024 | 1.4 | 0.064 | 1.7 | 0.082 | -0.4 |
| Charlie Bell | 1485 | 0.7 | 0.023 | 1.1 | 0.037 | -0.4 |
| Jodie Meeks* | 486 | 0.5 | 0.05 | 0.5 | 0.05 | 0 |
| Jerry Stackhouse*** | 616 | 0.5 | 0.039 | 0.7 | 0.051 | -0.2 |
| Kurt Thomas | 775 | 0.4 | 0.024 | 2.3 | 0.143 | -1.9 |
| Roko Ukic | 97 | 0 | 0.022 | -0.1 | -0.051 | 0.1 |
| Primoz Brezec*** | 43 | -0.1 | -0.145 | -0.2 | -0.227 | 0.1 |
| Michael Redd | 492 | -0.1 | -0.014 | 1 | 0.098 | -1.1 |
| Francisco Elson | 62 | -0.2 | -0.123 | 0 | 0.011 | -0.2 |
| Royal Ivey | 70 | -0.3 | -0.211 | -0.1 | -0.037 | -0.3 |
| Dan Gadzuric | 232 | -0.3 | -0.067 | 0.2 | 0.039 | -0.5 |
| Summation | 38.7 | 32.6 | 6.1 |
* – Player is either a rookie, or has limited (recent) NBA history, so 08-09 numbers are the same as 09-10
**- WP48 from 2008-09 is calculated relative to position played in 2009-10
*** – 2008-09 numbers listed for Delfino, Stackhouse, and Brezec come from 2007-08. Ilyasova’s 2008-09 numbers come from 2006-07
Obviously the Bucks have been the surprise story all year, but you pegged them much higher than most before the season, what did you see differently then and what are you seeing now?
My answer begins with the data (which hopefully is not a surprise). The table presents two perspectives on the players employed by Milwaukee this year. The first view is the productivity of Milwaukee’s players – measured via Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] – this season. We also see how the team would look if we assume that what the players did last year (or in their most recent NBA season) would be seen again this season.
The first view (columns 3-4) says the Bucks should have won 38.7 games this season (as of Friday night). Had these players maintained what they did last year, though, the team would have expected – as of Friday night — to win 32.6 games (columns 5-6). The only real difference is the play of Ersan Ilyasova. Back in 2006-07, Ilyasova played very poorly in 973 minutes at the age of 19. Now that he is 22 he has become a very productive player.
If we knew Ilyasova was going to play this well, then we would have suspected the Bucks – even with the injury to Michael Redd – would have been an above average team this year. Even without knowing about Ilyasova, though, we still would have suspected the Bucks were better than the media projected.
Remember, the experts at ESPN.com expected the Bucks to rank 14th out of 15 Eastern Conference teams before the season started. But Milwaukee had the following above average players on their roster (above average based on past performance): Andrew Bogut, Carlos Delfino (he has generally been a very good NBA player), Luc Mbah a Moute, and Luke Ridnour. With four above average players it seemed unlikely – as I noted last September (see the post below) – that this team would be awful.
Revising Expectations Upwards in Milwaukee « The Wages of Wins Journal
To understand why the media’s projection was incorrect we need to understand that scoring tends to dominate the standard evaluation of NBA players. The most productive players on the Bucks, though, are not scorers. Consequently, we should not be surprised that this team was under-estimated. Read more…
