Bulls were happy, Bucks were sad. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
The Bulls were very happy on Saturday night. They won by a lot and dominated all 48 minutes of the game against the Bucks. Also, the crowd was absolutely in Chicago’s favor. There were MVP chants for Derrick Rose throughout the night. There was a chant, an embarrassing one, for Brian Scalabrine as the game wound down.
Rose either assisted or scored each of the Bulls first 15 points. Luol Deng made a triumphant return to the lineup. The Bucks fouled the Bulls just eight times despite Chicago’s repeated trips into the lane to the hoop.
Everything was bad.
Momentum from that Miami win? Gone. Hopes right now? Low.
Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com. Follow him on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.
After Brandon Jennings’s comments regarding the Bucks offense not running through him the way it did last season, many pointed to Jennings low assist totals and high volume of shots as proof that the Bucks offense still runs through Jennings. I looked up the numbers, saw a team leader in scoring and a guy second in usage rate and thought, “is he crazy?” But it’s worth digging a little deeper to see just what kind of shots Jennings is getting and how they come within the Bucks offense and what ever happened to that 10 assists per game proclamation.
When an offense is running through a point guard, that generally means the point guard is operating as the ball handler in a pick and roll scenario or is penetrating a defense through isolation and making decisions after getting past the first defender. The percentage of Jennings possessions in which he’s the ball handler in a pick and roll scenario or in isolation comes to 49.3% of his possessions.
In comparison, Derrick Rose, clearly the focus of the Bulls offense, handles the ball in either of those scenarios on 57.4% of his possessions. Rose’s numbers fall right in line with other elite point guards that largely operate their team’s offense. Chris Paul is right at about 60% of his possessions spent in these scenarios and Steve Nash percentages are even higher, with better than 66% of his time in these possessions.
But the results on those possessions between Jennings and Rose, or most any other ball dominating point guard, are dramatically different. On pick and rolls as ball handler, Jennings manages .84 points per possession while shooting sub-40% and 34.2% from three, while Nash scores .96 points per possession and shoots better than 50% and 40% respectively from the field and three. In isolation, the numbers are even worse.
When a team is attempting to figure out how they’ll be able to manage without Earl Boykins, obviously that’s a sign of a rough night ahead.
But Milwaukee battled. That’s more that could have been said about Monday night’s defeat. With no Boykins, or Brandon Jennings or Drew Gooden or Carlos Delfino, the Bucks simply didn’t have the offense to stick with the Bulls Tuesday night in a 90-77 defeat at the United Center. Somehow, despite making under 33% of their first half shots, the Bucks actually led by three at halftime. For most teams, that would be cause of optimism. Most teams would have figured there’s no way they could shoot that poorly for another half. Most team’s luck would turn around and they’d ride a better second half to an easy win.
Most teams aren’t the Bucks. Milwaukee’s poor shooting kept on keeping on and the Bucks finished a remarkable 32.1% from the field, marking the 16th time this season that they’ve shot under 40% (H/T Charles F. Gardner).
The loss leaves the Bucks at the dreaded six games under .500 mark. Six games was the low light of Milwaukee’s season last year, a seventh would officially leave the Bucks in a worse position than they were in at any point during the last season. A seventh game under .500 probably isn’t needed to further pound home the point that the expectations for this season dramatically out shot reality. The reality now is that the Bucks are looking like a team that will have to use another second half surge this season to push them into the playoffs rather than to fight for better seeding.
The reality is that the Bucks are more capable of shooting 33% on any given night than they are of shooting 50%. Read more…
Rose has been something of a monster this year. He’s visibly improved in every aspect of the game, from defense to 3-point shooting to passing. He’s looking every bit like a former number one pick and is a safe bet to wreak all kinds of havoc on the Bucks makeshift point guard unit of Dooling and Earl Boykins. The shakiest part of his game offensively is the in-between space of 10-15 feet. Last season he shot 50% from that range, but he’s down to just 31% this year. Milwaukee has to run him off the 3-point line and keep him from getting all the way to the cup. Defending Dooling will start with Dooling and end with Bogut.
Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 42-34
vs.
Chicago Bulls (Vinny Del Negro) 37-39
Date: April 6, 2010 Time: 7:00 (CST) TV: FS Wisconsin
Matchups
Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Derrick Rose
Two of the best young point guards in the East go head-to-head once again, this time, with even more at stake. The Bucks win and they clinch a playoff spot without having to back in. The Bulls need all the wins they can get if they really want to make the playoffs. Jennings and Rose will have the ball in their hands all night, leading the charges. Jennings got the best of Rose the last time these teams met, most famously in the highlight above. We could see some changes in the Bucks offense that results in a little more Jennings, especially with Kurt Thomas starting. Thomas does his best work a few steps outside the paint, so in theory that should result in more operating room for Jennings on drives. We’ll see how it all shakes out though. Containing Rose is going to be a HUGE key for the Bucks.
