Happened again against Orlando, as it has so many times this season.  Milwaukee dropped a tough to watch professional version of Monday night’s not-so-classic UConn-Butler battle for the national title, 78-72.

Tuesday was the lowest of lows for the Bucks starting five.  Coach Scott Skiles took the drastic measure of inserting an entirely new five man group after Milwaukee’s first unit failed to score for the first 6:39 of the game.  Facing a 14-0 deficit, Milwaukee didn’t have just have a hole to dig itself out of, the Bucks were more like the child trapped at the bottom of the well.  And, as they so often do, the Bucks worked hard at getting out of that predicament.

From the moment the Bucks starters made their mass exit until just 2:01 remained in the game, Milwaukee out-scored Orlando 58-44.  Consecutive rather wacky baskets from Drew Gooden (is there anyone else on the Bucks whose shots are ever described as wacky?) left the Bucks even with Orlando, 72-72.  But the Bucks would out-cold their opponent once again, missing their final four shots, while mixing in a costly and completely avoidable turnover.  The Magic capitalized on the Bucks misfortune and put to bed a game they really had no business winning.

Fortunately for Orlando, Milwaukee had even less business winning it.

Offense

It looks like Gooden is going to use this stretch run to try and make a believer of us all.  He took a step towards doing just that tonight.  Gooden made seven of 12 shots and scored 17 points, but what was truly impressive, was HOW he scored.  Gooden made just two of six from 16-23 feet on a night in which he must not have been feeling his jumper, but he headed on inside and made five of five shots from inside the paint.  That’s a great sign for a guy who often relies too heavily on his jumper, falling or not. The more he does that, the more he’ll avoid those six for 16 nights he had against the Sixers and the happier everyone will be.

• Aside from Gooden, the rest of the Bucks bench played fairly well in a loss.  Bucks reserves combined for 44 of Milwaukee’s 72 points, making 16 of 30 shots.  Keyon Dooling played well, scoring 10 points on three of four shooting, including a two of three effort from deep.

• And that’s about it for positive offensive play.  Milwaukee’s starters turned in what may have been their worst game of the season.  As often is the case when the Bucks offense goes bad, John Salmons was ineffective, making just three of nine shots while scoring nine points.  But he was hardly one to single out, as Brandon Jennings bricked his way to a three for 15 effort, including a one of seven outing from three.  Jennings was also largely to blame on a late turnover that allowed the Magic to push their two point lead up to four with :47 to play.  In trying to save time, Jennings didn’t realize Jameer Nelson was creeping in for a steal as Jennings allowed a pass from Andrew Bogut to bounce up the court.  That lack of awareness cost the Bucks dearly.

• We’ve reached a point with the Bucks where it seems like it doesn’t even warrant mentioning that the team shot 36%, because it’s just so common.  Amazing.  This is the anti-2006-07 team for sure.

Defense

Oh defense, I pity thee.  You get so much attention, but you’re never rewarded with a victory.  Orlando made just 38.8% of their shots and missed their final 18 threes.  Milwaukee keys in on the Magic’s three-point shooting every time they play and this was as satisfying an effort as they’ve had against Orlando’s shooters yet.  But again, Milwaukee’s offense cannot reward their defense with an effort nearly as strong.  So the Bucks go home unhappy, despite playing a respectable game against Dwight Howard (18 points and 17 rebounds on five of 10 shooting) and shutting them down from deep (two of 21 on threes).  It’s so common that it isn’t frustrating, but it’s certainly curious.

• A combination of pace and good defense has helped Milwaukee hold 11 consecutive opponents under 100 points.  Unfortunately for the Bucks, they’ve gone just 5-6 over that stretch.

Final Thoughts

One more Pacer win or Bucks loss and that’s all she wrote.

I just wonder why she had to be so cruel with her writing.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com. Follow him on Twitter. Become a fan on Facebook (right sidebar).

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Once upon a time the NBA was a league full of really good centers.  Every few nights a Hall of Fame caliber big man would march into your arena, looking to take apart your team inside.  But that’s not really the case anymore.  It’s a guard dominated league these days.  Typically, when your team’s starting center is out, it’s not that hard to get by with a backup for a while, because there are only a few really worrisome centers left in the league.

Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Bucks, the best of a thin bunch plays for the Orlando Magic and his arrival in Milwaukee Wednesday coincided with another migraine for Andrew Bogut.

Without their defensive anchor and already playing short-handed up front, Milwaukee had few answers for Dwight Howard. Howard feasted on a Bucks front line fighting an up hill battle, posting 31 points and 22 rebounds in a 93-89 Orlando overtime win.

Overtime?  The Magic needed overtime to topple a Bucks team without Bogut?  They did.

Milwaukee’s offensive issues have been well documented this season, but what’s kind of flown under the radar has been their ability to drag their opponents into the muck with them, make them fight it out on the same level.  They pulled this trick off once again against the heavily favored Magic.  Sure, Howard had a big game, but the Bucks sent him to the free throw line 24 times to earn those points.  Howard obliged and made just 13.

When Howard wasn’t shooting free throws, his teammates weren’t having overwhelming success elsewhere.  Orlando turned the ball over 19 times, leading to 20 Bucks points and the Magic shot just 43.4% from the field while hitting only seven of 27 three-point attempts.  Milwaukee did what they needed to do defensively, as they have so many times before this season.  They brought Orlando down to their level.

But if Milwaukee is going to bring teams down into the dirt with them, the Bucks need to be the ones to climb out first.  Milwaukee didn’t make things easy on itself early with a six for 22 first quarter effort, but strong second and third quarters left the game within reach.  It was the same costly errors that have plagued them throughout the season that let this game slip away.  A shot clock violation with 3:42 to play, seven offensive rebounds for the Magic in the fourth quarter, a ball dribbled off a foot into the Magic in crunch time, those things all end up coming back to haunt teams.

Milwaukee did enough right to stay in it against the Magic for virtually the entire game Wednesday. They just couldn’t do enough right to win.

Salmons

When John Salmons is making jump shots, it goes a long way towards making the Bucks look respectable on offense.  Salmons was doing so in the third quarter and, surprise surprise, Milwaukee shot 52.4% in the quarter.  Salmons was seven of nine in the third, relying largely on his mid-range jumper, but getting to the basket for a pair of layups as well.  After back to back games against stellar pick and roll defenders, he said the team put greater focus on getting around big men and getting to the basket.

“It was up to us to get around those bigs,” Salmons said.  “Today I think we did a better job of getting in the paint, drawing and kicking and getting people open shots.  Pick and roll is a big part of our game, it’s a big part of our offense, so it’s definitely up to the ball handlers to get around those bigs.”

The draw and kick game was in full effect, as Salmons dished out five assists to go with his 22 points on 10 of 19 shooting and seven rebounds.  Without Bogut, Milwaukee stayed in it largely because of one of Salmons better games of the season.

Timeout Troubles

When Milwaukee’s offense did breakdown, it broke down hard.  Coming out a first half timeout, the Bucks fell back into their habit of over-dribbling and did so until the Magic poked the ball away, leading to a Brandon Jennings half court attempt just to beat the buzzer.  Why does Milwaukee struggle so badly at times like these when they show flashes (like a nicely designed out of bounds play that led to an Earl Barron layup in overtime) of sharp decision making?  Well, there is an opponent on the court and sometimes things break down.  That’s where things typically get tricky for a team like the Bucks.

“All the coaches have a myriad of plays that rely on some sort of deception, especially when you got a low clock situation,” Coach Scott Skiles explained post game.  “If that deception doesn’t work, then you rely on a great player making a great play.  And, so … human beings, you know?  Mistakes are made.”

Problem is, the Bucks don’t have a great player to make that great play.  And Skiles seemed to realize that when he was searching for words after saying great players make great plays.  But he understands his predicament and isn’t going to toss his guys under the bus.  Honestly though, when the Bucks need bailing out, there is no one to turn to.

Having a bunch of okay offensive players gave hope earlier this season that someone else could step up every game.  But that was probably fools gold.  Hoping a new average player breaks out every night is like having three cars made in 1994 with the idea that if one doesn’t start in the winter, the other one surely will.  None of those cars are going to start when it gets really cold.  You’ll just be left walking out in the cold.

A lot like the Bucks.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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In Orlando Wednesday night, Milwaukee made a run in the fourth quarter to make things look respectable, but trailed by double digits virtually the entire game.  The culprit?  A shooting percentage that hovered under 33% again for the majority of the evening.

It was the same story that’s played out so many times before for the Bucks this season.  Shoot so horribly throughout the majority of the game, then try and furiously scramble back into the game once a few shots finally fall.  The Bucks made exactly one third of their shots before the fourth quarter, and then shot 12 of 21 in the final period.  They pulled within five at one point, but after Hedo Turkoglu answered with a three, they failed to get inside of eight points the rest of the way.  They got close enough in the fourth that it seemed feasible and really made you damn their 15 of 32 outing from the free throw line.

But an offense like the Bucks holds them back so dearly.

If Milwaukee was just bad offensively, and by that I mean a steady 40% shooting team through the first three quarters, they would have kept the game close enough for their final run to possibly put them over the top.  Milwaukee’s rarely just bad offensively though.  They’re more frequently historically bad offensively.

Their outing dropped their offensive rating to 99.7 for the season.  No team since the pre-Chris Paul New Orleans Hornets of 2004-05 has been so bad.  Those Hornets are the ones that were held hostage by Baron Davis and suited up 22 different players that season while starting 19 different faces.  Starters on that team include: Casey Jacobson, Lee Nailon, Jackson Vroman, Bostjan Nachbar and Junior Harrington. That’s the team the Bucks are playing like offensively.

The season before though, two teams finished with an offensive rating lower than 99.7.  The Toronto Raptors and … Scott Skiles’ Chicago Bulls.  Skiles was fired after 66 games, but the team continued to play horribly after his exit.  That scenario likely won’t play out this season, as Milwaukee is still one of the league’s premier defensive squads and firing Skiles hardly seems like an offensive solution for this team, but it’s worth mentioning nonetheless.  The last time a Skiles team performed this poorly offensively, he ended up out of a job.

Offense

At least Corey Maggette played well.  Maggette was accurate with his shot (7-9 FG), successful on his drives (6-8 FT) and active on the glass (seven defensive rebounds).  Unfortunately, as has often been the case this year, Maggette scored in double digits and the Bucks lost by more then 10.  When Maggette scores in double figures this season, the Bucks are now 4-12 and have lost nine of those 12 by 10 or more.  Obviously that’s not all on Maggette, but it’s interesting how that’s worked out.  Early in this game it seemed like the statistic would play out again.  Milwaukee was down big early and Maggette was getting minutes and being very aggressive in looking for his shot and getting to the rim.  He’s largely responsible for the Bucks cutting Orlando’s lead late, but with little help, he couldn’t get Milwaukee over the hump alone.

• Not even a little of that help late came from Andrew Bogut, who fouled out with nine minutes remaining in the game.  Bogut had nothing for Dwight Howard and his improved post game.  Howard had Bogut grabbing and bumping all night, resulting in constant foul trouble for the Bucks big man.  When Bogut had opportunities on the other end, they usually ended up with him on the free throw line, where he made just two of 10 shots.  A rough night for the Bucks big.

• Milwaukee’s bench was what kept them in the game for most of the evening.  They outscored Orlando’s reserved 57 -23.

Defense

Early on, when Orlando wasn’t catching lobs and dunking them, they were finding Howard in other ways.  He scored 17 of his 28 points in the first half and made Milwaukee pay for not doubling him down low.  The Bucks rarely double Howard, as it allows them to stay out on the Magic shooters.  In that regard, they were very successful, as they limited Orlando to just five made 3-pointers in 22 attempts.

• When Howard wasn’t scoring, Orlando still looked like the envy of every Bucks fans eyes.  Five players outside of Howard scored in double figures and all of them showed off specific, and more importantly, reliable, offensive skills.  Whether it was Brandon Bass’ mid-range game or Turkoglu’s 3-point shot or Jason Richardson at the rim, the Magic were a diverse offensive group that Milwaukee had more trouble than usual handling.

Final Thoughts

With this loss Milwaukee fell to seven games under .500, their worst mark since the beginning of last season.  With Miami coming to town Friday, the record likely won’t get better with their next game.  Eventually the schedule will soften, but that won’t matter so much if shots don’t fall when it does.  Milwaukee won’t win many games shooting under 40%, regardless of who they play.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Enemy: MagicBasketball.net

Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Jameer Nelson

Nelson is a good matchup for Dooling.  He’s small and not overwhelmingly fast, so Dooling should be able to put lots of pressure on him using his length advantage.  Nelson knows this offense very well though and always keeps spacing on the court.  He’s a very good shooter and certainly someone who Dooling cannot leave to double team Howard should the Bucks choose to do so.  Historically, Milwaukee wants to prevent the Magic from getting many open looks outside, so look for Dooling to rarely stray from Nelson.

Advantage: Magic

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Jason Richardson

Richardson’s numbers have taken a tumble since arriving from Phoenix, but he’s gone from a featured role in the Steve Nash Band to a supporting member of the Dwight Howard’s. He’s a reliable 3-point threat and really thrives when he can bust out on the wing in transition.  Salmons has been showing more for the last month or so in terms of playmaking and helping teammates get shots, which has been particularly key in keeping Milwaukee in games with Brandon Jennings out.  He’ll have to be at it again.  Any fouls Salmons can draw on Howard on drives would be a great help for the Bucks as well.

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward
Luc Mbah a Moute vs. Hedo Turkoglu

Turkoglu has blossomed since rejoining the Magic, rediscovering that point forwardness about him.  His assist rate is up considerably and he’s looking a lot like the versatile threat he was before his free agency apparently ruined his career.  Mbah a Moute could see some time on a number of different Magic players, but could go a long ways towards stopping the Magic by limiting the multi-dimensional Turkoglu.

Advantage: Magic

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Brandon Bass

The play of Bass was one of the reasons the Magic had the luxury of parting ways with Rashard Lewis. He’s hitting better than half his shots this season and is making 84% of his free throws.  He’s a reliable mid range shooter and can absolutely finish around the cup.  Ilyasova hit a three in last nights game, a shocking occurrence this season.  He also hustled and fought for a number of rebounds, displaying the same nightly effort that has him where he is.  For as inconsistent as his play is, his effort is never questionable.

Advantage: Magic

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Dwight Howard

This should be a fun matchup.  The league’s two finest defensive big men by virtually any measure, they are sure to make life difficult for each other and any other players entering the paint this evening.  Obviously Howard has a significant athletic advantage over Bogut, though Bogut seems to understand where to be defensively a little more judging from his superior charges taken numbers.  Ultimately Howard has proven a much more reliable offensive player than Bogut and will likely show that again tonight.

Advantage: Magic

Bench
Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Earl Boykins, Jon Brockman and Larry Sanders

vs.

Gilbert Arenas, JJ Redick, Ryan Anderson, Chris Duhon and Malik Allen

Arenas hasn’t exactly been resurrected since the trade.  He’s still shooting at a sub-40% level and has only taken nine free throws.  That’s not to say he can’t impact a game in a significant way though, because he’s always capable, just less so than he once was.  Redick and Anderson can shoot very well and Redick in particular gets his shots very effectively in the offensive flow.  Brockman’s six point, five rebound outing yesterday was one of his strongest games of the in terms of statistics and in terms of him doing the little things.  His energy is always contagious and helps the Bucks through lulls.  Unfortunately his talent level often gets the Bucks into lulls offensively.

Advantage: Magic

Prediction: Magic 97 – Bucks 89

Milwaukee has a knack for hanging tough with the best teams in the league on the road and some would say they have a knack for pulling games out.  But really they’ve only won big games in Dallas and Los Angeles (I don’t count Atlanta as a tough team on the road with that home court).  This one likely won’t be over quickly, and it may not get as ugly late as the Miami game did, but Milwaukee will be hard pressed to top the Magic in Orlando right now.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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(Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) Warrick found little room to operate Tuesday night

One thing was very clear by the end of Tuesday night’s Bucks game in Orlando: Orlando is very good, much better than Milwaukee.  Breaking news, I know, but I just wanted to get that out there so we were all on the same page, just in case by some chance we weren’t.  The Magic are a NBA Finals contender and the Bucks are finally scraping back towards respectability, unfortunately that’s just the reality of the situation.  So it’s hard to be too heartbroken about a blowout loss in The Magic Kingdom.  The Bucks had been playing some of their best basketball of the season before Tuesday’s game, but it was apparently too much to ask for that to continue on through the evening.  The question going forward will be whether or not Tuesday had more to do with playing against Orlando or whether the not-so-long-ago inconsistent Bucks have once again reared their ugly head.

Offense

Non-existent once again, the Bucks shot just 36.3 percent.  When Jodie Meeks is getting playing time at this point, it’s generally a bad sign.  It seems to mean no answers are apparent or the Bucks are looking tired and ragged.  Both of those schools of thought applied to a Bucks team in the second game of a road back-to-back.

• Andrew Bogut had another double-double, but it was on the low end of the double-double spectrum at 10 points and 10 rebounds.  Bogut had eight points in the first six minutes and wasn’t able to get back in a rhythm again.  A good example of Bogut’s importance came in the second quarter when he went to the bench with his second foul (and perhaps fatigue) with 7:26 left in the half.  The Bucks trailed by four at the time and when Bogut reentered to begin the second half the Bucks trailed by 14.  Without his defense and offense the Bucks went into a funk that would prove to be too much to overcome.  It was never a game again.

• Brandon Jennings did serious work against the Heat on Monday distributing the ball and controlling the game.  He never had the same impact on Tuesday and that probably had a lot to do with Dwight Howard roaming the court and staying with Jennings’ favorite big man.  Jennings ended the evening with just four assists, certainly not enough to offset his poor shooting night (1-7).  The Jennings/Bogut pick and roll never got off the ground Tuesday.

• Milwaukee doesn’t take a lot of free-throws, so when they get to the line it’s that much more important that they are connecting.  Tuesday was not a banner day for free-throw percentages as the Bucks shot just 9-19, headlined by Hakim Warrick’s 1-6 effort.  Hak’ was getting to the line with his typically assortment of pump-fakes and attack moves, but it didn’t do much good when he kept missing the freebies.

Defense

Three-point shots have been a theme in the Magic’s wins over the Bucks.  They finish the three game series 27-59 (45.7%) against Milwaukee from downtown.  Defending the three was an important part of Coach Scott Skiles philosophy of how to defense Orlando when the Magic first came to Milwaukee and the Bucks did it well for the first half of that first game.  Since then, the wheels have come off for the Bucks when they meet Orlando and they certainly aren’t alone in that sense.

• Vince Carter nearly had a triple-double with 17 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists after struggling for the entire month of January.  All he needed was a game against the Bucks, who he’d been averaging roughly 75 points per game against this year (actually more like 25, but you get what I’m sayin!).  Carter is the worst possible match-up for the Bucks, a big two who likes to attack and can shoot it.

• Milwaukee was able to force some turnovers, 14, but as has often been the case, was unable to transform them into many easy baskets.  The Bucks had just six fast break points, an all too typical number for a team forcing so many turnovers.  The Bucks scored just 16 points off 14 turnovers, while the Magic were able to score 10 off nine Bucks miscues.

Final Thoughts

So Milwaukee wasn’t able to get the “signature” win they’ve been looking for lately, but that may have been a bit too much to ask for when you look at Orlando’s loaded roster.  They have guys not playing that would vie for a starting spot with Milwaukee.  Worse yet, the Bucks offense went frigid and they displayed many of the characteristics of the Bucks team of December that has Milwaukee in the current predicament on the outside of the playoffs looking in.  But a lot of teams look their worst when facing Orlando’s stingy defense and adept three-point attack, then turn around head to New York and win by double figures.  Milwaukee will get their chance Friday.

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It was more than effort and energy.

I’d say for the first time in over a month, the Bucks looked decisive and played offense with a purpose.  There was no hesitation off screens from Brandon Jennings, just him making quick decisions.  Andrew Bogut was going right at Dwight Howard and working hard to get him in early foul trouble.

But that couldn’t (and didn’t) last all game.  The Bucks eventually reverted to form in the second half as the game slipped away.  Shots weren’t falling and the defense collapsed.  The good half the Bucks played in the first seemed like a distant memory as the clock expired on this one.  76 second half points and a 40 percent shooting performance don’t really afford the Bucks the opportunity to look back on this game and smile about much.

The moral of Wednesday’s story is a team on the attack will always fare better than the opposition.  In the first half, the Bucks were on the attack often and made quick decisions.  In the second half?  The Bucks of old were back.  They were passive; they dribbled too much and stopped making jump-shots.

Offense

• When the Bucks were at their finest, Jennings was shooting or passing quickly off the pick and rolls.  In the second half he over-dribbled and that rarely helps the situation.  The NBA is all about quickness.  Make a quick move, think quickly and react.  Jennings wasn’t the only one who had trouble with this.  The Bucks too often are bogging down offensively and holding the ball too long without attacking or passively dribbling around the perimeter.  In the early part of the game this wasn’t an issue, but during the 14-0 fourth quarter run the Magic went on it was a huge problem.

• 16-46.  That was the combined makes and attempts for Jennings, Bogut and Michael Redd.  A team with the talent level of Milwaukee is sure to avoid winning a game when it’s “best” three players shoot a touch better than 33 percent.

• Speaking of Redd, it was very noticeable that he wasn’t getting many shots or even touches early.  As the Bucks found a nice rhythm in the first quarter, he took only a few shots as noted by the screen above.  It seemed like that opened up the offense for Bogut and Jennings to get the looks they wanted.  Even Luc Richard Mbah a Moute got a few early post-up touches against Vince Carter. Is it much of a shock at this point that the offense was better without Redd getting looks?  I don’t envy Coach Skiles for having to figure out how to get his guys to mesh.

• Remember when Jodie Meeks earned some more minutes?  He’s responded to a playing time increase with 4-15 shooting, including a miserable 0-7 on three’s.  He didn’t even grab a single rebound to help make up for his offensively liable effort Wednesday.  In short, Meeks was part of the passive problem and not the aggressive solution against the Magic.

Defense

• The Bucks came out with so much promise in the first quarter.  Jennings had three deflections early, Bogut a block, Ilyasova a deflection, LRMAM a poke away steal (credited to Redd who came up with it) and Kurt Thomas chipped in with a block, the Bucks were all over the floor.  And then they gave up 76 second half points.

• Orlando shot 1-9 on three’s in the first half and while that was surprising, it wasn’t a total shock, as the Bucks have actually been pretty good about defending the three-point line this year.  But the wheels fell off in the second half as Orlando went 9-12 in blowing the game open.  Jason Williams led the charge hitting all five of his second half three-point attempts.  J-Will was hitting off the dribble, off catches and with great swagger.  It was all VERY J-Willish.  After the first Orlando game in Milwaukee, coach Scott Skiles talked a lot about keeping Orlando from getting comfortable on their three’s and trying to run them off of those shots, it was clear it was a big part of Milwaukee’s game plan.  It likely was again Wednesday, but it was tough to tell in the second half.

• The insertion of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute into the starting lineup went swimmingly, as the Bucks carried their strong second half play from Monday into a 49-41 lead at half Wednesday.  Now if they can just figure out how to put consecutive halves into the same game, they’ll be in good shape.

• Carlos Delfino was the odd man out of the starting lineup, and then played only nine minutes in which he managed to miss two shots and hit one off the side of the backboard.  Not exactly a strong case for reinsertion into the starting lineup.

Final Thoughts

The Bucks are now 3-11 with Michael Redd this season and have had only fleeting positive moments with him in the game.  This season is falling apart faster than anyone would like, or not fast enough.  It all depends on where you as a fan want the Bucks to go.  Is it time for Milwaukee to pack it in and sacrifice this year in order to gain better draft position?  Or do the Bucks need to dig deep within themselves and pull out reserve energy to jump back into the playoff picture.

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(Probable) Inactives: Joe Alexander, Roko Ukic and Dan Gadzuric

at

Orlando Magic (Stan Van Gundy) 22-8

(Probable) Inactives: Adonal Foyle

Date: 12/30/2009

Time: 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Jameer Nelson

Nelson will be in his fourth game back since returning from a knee injury, but has had ample time to practice since the Magic haven’t had an actual game since Christmas.  Nelson was absent when in the Magic’s 100-98 win over Milwaukee on November 28th.  With Nelson back, the Magic are without question a much better team.  Neither Anthony Johnson or Jason Williams provide the consistency or  shooting touch from outside that Nelson can contribute.  Having that extra shooter and talent on the court can do wonders to help a team maintain some sort of consistency on offense.  The Magic haven’t quite figured out how all the pieces fit just yet, they were waxed by the Celtics Christmas day, but Nelson makes them very dangerous when he’s healthy.  Jennings is coming off his best performance in weeks, the majority of which came with Michael Redd on the bench.  I’m just saying.

Advantage: Magic

Shooting Guard

Michael Redd vs. Vince Carter

Sigh.  If Redd’s starting this game next to Carlos Delfino I might walk out into traffic during the game.  This line-up hasn’t worked and won’t suddenly start to work.  Redd and Jennings have shown very few signs of cohesiveness in their limited time on the court together.  Carter has entrenched himself as Orlando’s number one option in crunch time, hitting free throws with more success than ever before, despite shooting lower percentages than he traditionally does on three’s and field goals in general.  In short, Carter is finding a way to contribute to a 22-8 team despite not playing up to par for himself.  Doesn’t that sound nice?

Advantage: Orlando

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Mickael Pietrus

Carlos Delfino, more like CarLOSS Delfino.  Am I right?  Bad puns aside, something needs to be done here.  Whether or not Redd should be starting is probably at least up for some sort of theological debate, but in the what have you done for me lately world of the NBA, there is no logical explanation behind Delfino starting against the Magic if he is.  You know what’s kind of funny?  Pietrus is known for his athleticism, dunking and defensive abilities.  And even he is a slightly better career three-point shooter than Carlos Delfino (.357 to .354).  How did this guy fool everyone for a month or so into thinking he could shoot?

Advantage: Magic

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Rashard Lewis

It was nice to see Ersan throw together a game resembling the Ilyasova performances we saw earlier this year.  Speaking of stellar early season Ilyasova work: 20 points and 16 rebounds were had against the Magic on 11/28.  I’d take that again in a heartbeat.  The Magic largely rely on Howard to grab boards, so if Bogut is able to work on him, there could be rebounds available.  Where rebounds are available Ilyasova lurks.  Lewis has never been a great reounder, but he’s a very smooth scorer and hit a clutch shot in the final minute against Milwaukee last game.  It’s never an easy night for Ersan and Wednesday will prove no different.

Advantage: Magic

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Dwight Howard

How Bogut will react to the second half benching of Monday night’s game will be interesting to see.  Lots of talk about effort and intensity, but it’s impossible to project when Bogut will have a good game or a bad one before tip.  His game does not lend itself to consistency as it’s currently constructed and Dwight Howard isn’t exactly the kind of player other centers can get themselves back on track against.  Bogut was not active when these teams last met, which is surprising considering the Bucks almost won.  Kurt Thomas spent the majority of the game attempting to keep Howard off the glass and away from the rim, but was largely unsuccessful (25 points and 20 rebounds) despite hard work.  Bogut has the size to at least compete on a higher level than Thomas is he really brings it.

Advantage: Magic

Bench

Kurt Thomas, Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Jodie Meeks and Charlie Bell

vs.

Ryan Anderson, Jason Williams, JJ Redick, Brandon Bass, Marcin Gortat and Matt Barnes

Answer: So deep.  Question: What are the Magic?  All six of the Magic’s main bench components could start for the Bucks.  Gortat and Bass occasionally lose out on minutes due to a sheer numbers game, but don’t think for a second that they can’t play.  Hakim Warrick had some success against the Magic last game and was okay against the Bobcats, he’ll have to be in top-notch form again for the Bucks to muster much against the Magic’s supersubs.

Advantage: Magic

Prediction: Magic 102 – Bucks 90

The last time these teams met the Bucks were coming off what had been their least inspiring loss of the season and third in a row at that point in Oklahoma City.  Now?  The Bucks come to Orlando after an embarrassing loss in which the Bucks trailed by 22 points at half to a below average Charlotte team.  Somehow, the Bucks managed to re-group after the loss to the Thunder and lead for most of the game (at home) against Orlando last time.

I wouldn’t count on the same effort Wednesday night.  Especially against a team that has had the luxury of four days off coming into this game.

The Magic are too good at home, the Bucks are too bad on the road and the talent gap is simply too great for the Bucks to lead for much (if any) of the game Wednesday night.  But that doesn’t ensure that all hope will be lost after this game.  If the Bucks are simply able to make a game of it and show more commitment on the defensive end and passion in general, they could have something to build on.

Yes, the bar is low right now.

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The Bucks biggest (16,128, nice job Milwaukee) and loudest crowd of the year was almost treated to what would have been the Bucks biggest upset of the season.  In fact, it hardly looked like an upset at all for the first two and a half quarters.  It was simply one team outplaying the other, if you had no idea which team’s record was better and which one had supposedly better players, you’d have no idea that the Magic were the reigning Eastern Conference champions and the Bucks were a plucky overachieving team picked to finish last by virtually everyone.  But those were the facts at hand and they eventually came to fruition as the Bucks were unable to hold off Orlando in a 100-98 home loss.

Offense

The Bucks looked better than they did for most of their four game trip against Western Conference foes.  Confidence returned, ball movement returned and three-point shooting returned.  As important as the second and third things are, they really stem from number one.  When a team feels confident and strong they’ll move the ball more and hit more shots.  But do they need to be doing those things to feel confident?  Chicken or the egg I suppose.

• The Bucks finished 11-19 on three’s, led by Brandon Jennings 4-7 effort.  The problem on the evening for Jennings was not the deep shots, it was all the rest of them.  3-15 inside the arc.  That’s the Dwight Howard effect.  Howard is so agile that Jennings couldn’t shake or get by him on the pick and roll and was forced into very tough shots and blocked on a few occasions.  The last four or five games have exposed Jennings in-between game some.  He can hit from deep and when he gets by his man he can finish more often than not if there’s not contact, but he hasn’t been consistent with a floater or short jump shot.  He’ll need to develop that over the next few years to truly be an elite scorer.

• Ersan Ilyasova played without mask for the first time and unlike most superheroes, turned into something better without the mask.  20/16 including seven offensive rebounds.  Ilyasova never stopped battling and was in perfect position to come up with multiple airballs and badly missed Buck shots.  It’s almost as if he had an extra sense and knew where to go.  That’s a common thing amongst great rebounders, they know where to position themselves to get the best opportunity on the offensive glass.

On the downside, Ersa Major missed short on a three that would have given the Bucks a one-point lead with 30 seconds to go and nearly airballed a free-throw a little while earlier.  He still seems to get a liiiiiitle shaky down the stretch from what I see and it often results in him coming up short on his shots.  I seem to remember Dirk being that way early in his career too.  Surely these guys took big shots in Europe though, right?  Maybe it’s not a European thing and I’m grasping at straws, but I hope these experiences with big shot attempts eventually add up to some success for Ersan.

• Hakim Warrick and Luke Ridnour combined for 36 off the bench and both looked unstoppable at times.  Unfortunately, Warrick looked eminently stoppable in the third and fourth quarters, scoring just two points on 1-4 shooting.  Ridnour was 4-8 in the second half with ten points (9-15 with 20 on the night), but took a questionable shot with 28 seconds left after grabbing an offensive rebound on Ilyasova’s missed three.  He was open for the shot and the Bucks were facing a defense that, when set, was better than their offense, but it might have been better to pull it out.  Hard to second guess a heat of the moment play like that, because if it goes in, we’re celebrating it.

Defense

I bet you’ve heard this before, “the NBA is a game of runs”.  It’s almost a running joke amongst my friends how often we hear and say that.  But there were a few extended periods when the Bucks probably could have sewed this one up and failed.

End of second quarter: 11-3 run by Orlando to make a 17-point game a nine-point game.

End of third quarter: A 15-2 run turns a 70-58 Bucks lead into a 73-72 Bucks deficit.

Closing quarters out like that is a recipe for disaster and good way to undo the hard work it took to build up a lead in the first place.  Momentum is sucked out from under a team when they can’t keep their strong play going into the next quarter.

• Dwight Howard was a handful for the Bucks.  25/20 with four blocks on a number of different Buck defenders.

• NOTE: Howard shot two free throws (and made one) on a “foul Dwight Howard because he isn’t good at free throws” strategy move in the fourth.

• Thomas didn’t end up with terrific numbers against Howard, but what was he do to?  He’s the oldest player on the Bucks and four to five inches shorter than Howard who’s 10x more athletic too.  The fact that Howard was forced into five turnovers by Thomas is impressive in itself.  Thomas stood his ground and fought as hard as he could against the monster known as D12.  His effort served as inspiration to his teammates who in turn refused to back down to the rest of the Magic.

Final Thoughts

Recent struggles on the road are making home games THAT much more important, so valiant efforts against top tier teams that end up as marks in the column marked with an L don’t help for this season.  But we’re looking beyond this season.  Bucks management can look to games like this as a blueprint on what the Bucks need to become contenders.  A bulky power forward to help with rebounding.  Someone, anyone who can defend the perimeter when it matters, a center who can take up space and keep other great centers off the boards in crucial spots.  A big two who can shoot it, create for himself and get to the free throw line.  These are a few of my favorite things (and things the Bucks need).

Not to say the Bucks have none of that.  When Andrew Bogut and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (NOTE: saw LRMAM after the game, still wearing a boot and had a limp in his walk.  I don’t expect he’ll be back Monday, but crazier things have happened right?) return the Bucks can attempt to cross off the perimeter defender part and the center part.  If they can stay healthy for a year or two then the Bucks get to cross those things off.  It’s beginning to look like they don’t have that shooting guard on the roster, whether Michael Redd is healthy or not.  He returned to the inactive list with soreness in his knee or inability to perform running through the rest of his body, it wasn’t totally clear which was the case.  Redd was brutal in the last three games and the Bucks again looked better without him.  Unfortunately, the Bucks and Redd need each other if they want to rid themselves of the other, so for the good of the franchise’s future development let’s hope Redd’s back soon (and much better than he was in the last three games) and this isn’t another case of further injury.

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(Likely) Inactives: Jameer Nelson

at

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 8-6

(Likely) Inactives: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Joe Alexander and Andrew Bogut

Game time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Jason Williams

No one will be happier to be home than Brandon Jennings.  Jennings has struggled bad this year on the road, averaging 28.7 points and 6.1 assists on 57.9 percent shooting to just 16.4 points and 5.1 assists on the road at a mere 35 percent clip.  Williams doesn’t represent the same tough challenge Jennings has faced over his last three games in Tony Parker, Darren Collsion and Russell Westbrook either.  The combination of returning hom and facing a backup point guard should hopefully rejuvenate Jennings and allow him to regain his aggressiveness and scoring touch.  The Bucks dodge another starting point guard in this one, as Jameer Nelson is out for about a month after a knee injury.

Advantage: BucksShooting Guard

Michael Redd vs. Vince Carter

Redd returned to the starting lineup Friday night only to struggle once again.  He finished with nine points, failing to hit double digits for a second time since he’s returned to active duty after a knee injury.  Redd hasn’t looked good at all, but it’s tough to say if it’s ill effects from the knee injury or trouble meshing with Brandon Jennings.  I’d think injury since Jennings has seemed easy enough to play with, but it’s hard for any player to go from focal point to afterthought while they are out.  Carter is still averaging nearly 20 points a night and in the Magic offense he’s getting to shoot more three-point shots than ever before.  He must be ecstatic shooting nearly six a night.  While his shooting percentage has dipped overall a little this year, he’s hitting three’s at nearly a 40 percent clip and will likely give the Bucks fits like Durant and Anthony before him if LRMAM doesn’t play.

Advantage: Magic

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Mickael Pietrus

I don’t get Scott Skiles substitution pattern with regard to Delfino.  Does he ever play in the second quarter or am I just missing something?  It seems like no matter how well he plays early, he drops out of the game rarely to be seen again after the first quarter.  Delfino had 13 points in the first quarter Friday night, but only shot the ball once or twice more the rest of the game.  I don’t think he needs to be featured more in the game plan by any means, but it seems like inconsistent minutes will result in inconsistent production.  Pietrus is a super-athletic defensive type that can dunk and hit the three-point shot.  That describes nearly everyone on the Magic roster except JJ Redick.

Advantage: Magic

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Rashard Lewis

Lewis hasn’t had the touch from deep since returning from a ten game steroid suspension to start the year, shooting just 20 percent from downtown this year, but could find it at any time.  He’ll be a difficult match-up for Ilyasova with his length and quickness on the perimeter.  Lewis would be the ultimate realization of talent for Ilyasova, a stretch four who can get to the basket and knock it down from behind the arc with regularity.  Add Ilyasova’s defensive prowess against most four men and he’d be a beast if he were to develop Lewis-like skills.  I’m not sure he will, but it’s something to hope for.  Ilyasova is coming off another double double and seemed to be one of the only Bucks to really want to be aggressive Friday.  He’ll need to bring that mindset against Orlando and hit the boards hard again.

Advantage: Magic

Center

Dan Gadzuric vs. Dwight Howard

Mismatch alert.  Howard is too big, strong and fast for everyone in the league and the Bucks are no different.  He’ll have a good shot at a 20/20 game against the Bucks weak front court Saturday night and could have a double double in the first half.  I’m already getting worried about the things he’s going to do to some of the Bucks layup attempts.

Advantage: Magic

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Charlie Bell, Hakim Warrick and Kurt Thomas

vs.

Redick, Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson, Marcin Gortat and Anthony Johnson

The problem with the Magic is that they are as deep as they are talented.  Anderson is a serious threat from deep, as is Redick and same with Barnes.  Any one of them can come in and burn teams off the bench.  Warrick had an okay game Friday, but misses a lot of layups.  If he’s not dunking I never feel good about him finishing.  It’s hard for him being so skinny to finish with contact it seems.  Usually the Bucks second unit can keep them in games, they were responsible for the Bucks run in the second quarter Friday night, but it wont’ be easy against the Magic bench on Saturday.

Advantage: Magic

Prediction: Magic 112 – Bucks 96

Given the way the Bucks have struggled to defend over the last few games, I don’t feel great about this one.  The Magic have a certifiable center in Howard who needs to be doubled with regularity.  His ability to draw defenses and the kick it out to the never-ending string of shooters on the Magic should give the Bucks fits the way Matt Bonner did on Monday for the Spurs.  The Magic have six or seven potential Bonner’s in their lineup though.  An ugly thought.

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