Enemy: The Heat Index

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Carlos Arroyo

Over his past five games, Jennings is averaging 25 points, 5.4 assists, 4 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Not too shabby a line.  Best of all is his 43.7% from the field over that stretch.  Over the course of his young career, shooting percentage has often been a thorn in Jennings’ side.  One five game stretch doesn’t change that, and he’s still a touch under 40% shooting on the season (39.8%), but perhaps this is a sign that things are beginning to come around for Jennings.  He played in four of those five games without Andrew Bogut and in Bogut’s return had one of the finer games of his entire NBA career in scoring 27 points, dishing six assists and grabbing seven rebounds.  He even hit Bogut on the pick and roll a few times, something he’s been struggling with.  Arroyo is really a point guard in name only at this point, as James handles the majority of the play-making duties for the Heat. He’s been a reliable shooter though, hitting on 13 of his 27 3-point attempts this season.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…

Without Andrew Bogut…

• …it’s an understatement to say the Bucks aren’t the same.  Offensively, there was very little room for shooters to operate and the guards had no release valve when they drew extra defenders on penetration.

• …defensively, Milwaukee was equally disastrous.  If I had a dollar for every time a Bucks defender flew by or fouled their man biting on a pump-fake, I’d have a steak dinner coming to me.  Between the poor close out efforts and the lack of interior defense in lieu of Bogut, the Heat ended up at the free-throw line all night Friday (25-28 FT) and made the most of their opportunities inside (34 points in the paint on 17-22 FG).

• …Dwyane Wade was able to get wherever he wanted on the court.  Charlie Bell may have been called the “Wade Stopper” earlier this year, but he had nothing for Wade without Bogut behind him.  Wade finished with the easiest 30 points he’ll ever have (9-14 FG 1-2 3FG 11-12 FT) and sprinkled in seven rebounds and assists for good measure.  He carved up Milwaukee’s defense the entire night.

• …the Bucks were forced to play Primoz Brezec and Dan Gadzuric a combined 32 minutes.  I’m not exaggerating or using hyperbole when I say that Brezec tripped over his own feet and fell down within two minutes of entering the game.  I’m also not exaggerating when I tell you Gadzuric didn’t take a shot outside ten feet, yet finished 2-7 from the field.  Oh, and Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem (the Heat centers most of the night) combined for 25 rebounds and 18 points (6-8 FG 6-8 FT).

• …Brandon Jennings was unable to make an impact.  First, there was concern about Bogut, only to learn he was dealing with some kind of back injury.  Now, there seems to be reason to be concerned about Jennings.  Jennings probably isn’t injured, he’s probably just going through another dip, but that’s not all that concerns me.  It wasn’t so much that Jennings was taking and missing bad shots yesterday, it was that he wasn’t looking to be aggressive.  With Bogut out of the game, it seemed reasonable to expect Jennings to control the offense and look for his own shot early.  He finished the first half with one shot attempt.  Jennings is now 9-34 over his past four games.  Coach Skiles on whether or not Jennings was hesitant:

I feel like he’s been that way since the Sac (Sacramento) game.  We need him to be more aggressive.  However, they were jumping out hard and aggressive with their bigs, pretty much text book of how you want to jump out and aggressively trap people.  I also felt like he was looking to spread the ball when they were jumping out.  It’s a fine line.  When Brandon’s going to his right hand, he’s not nearly as comfortable, they jump out and he tends to pick it up and move it, it’s an area he’s still working on.

• …is one thing, but without Bogut or Ersan Ilyasova (flu), the Bucks front line was beyond depleted.  The newly signed Darnell Jackson was not yet with the team and the Bucks simply were outmatched inside.  Milwaukee was outrebounded on the defensive glass 37-19.  They made up some of that deficit on the offensive boards, winning that battle 17-9, but what good does it do when Brezec and Gadzuric grab offensive boards only to miss another shot?  Even the typically strong finishing Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was 2-10, with a number of misses inside.

• …the Bucks shot 31.5% and allowed the Heat to shoot 49.2%.

• …the Bucks didn’t block a shot.

• …Milwaukee had fewer assists (nine) than turnovers (10).

• …and Ilyasova was making it hard enough on the Bucks and then things turned for the worse.  Carlos Delfino went down on a drive in the second quarter and has his head/neck area inadvertently stepped on by Heat power forward Udonis Haslem on a rebound.  Haslem made an outlet pass and the Heat moved down the court, but Delfino didn’t move.  He continued to lie under the hoop until a stretcher was brought out to carry him off.  The Bucks reported that he did have movement in his extremities and he was being taken to the hospital for precautionary x-rays.  No further word was available on Delfino, but keep him in your thoughts.

• …the Bucks weren’t so good Friday night and it was clear in every which way.  The Bucks lack a competent back-up plan if Kurt Thomas is in foul trouble like he was Friday, making Bogut’s absence all the more notable.  Before the game, Coach Skiles said he’d hoped Bogut would be back Sunday, said this injury had nothing to do with his last back injury and wrote it off as “back spasms more or less.”  I’m skeptical but hopeful.  One thing is clear though …

Without Andrew Bogut, the Bucks can kiss any playoff optimism goodbye.

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 39-31

Vs.

Miami Heat (Erik Spoelstra) 38-34

Date: 3/26/2010

Time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin and NBA TV

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Carlos Arroyo

The shipping out of Rafer Alston initially seemed like a questionable move, given that he helped Orlando so tremendously last season after Jameer Nelson went down, but the more I look the more I like it.  Miami doesn’t have the talent around their point guards to make up for poor effort on defense or freelancing in the offense or just a general problem in the locker room.  At any given time, Alston can be those things.  Arroyo has some flair in his game, but isn’t all that good.  Why Chalmers still doesn’t start is beyond me, but he appears to be a little off-kilter himself.  Regardless, the point guard position in Miami ends up being Wade’s by game end anyway.  Jennings has struggled mightily in his last two; a rebound game would be nice.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…

Recap/Box Score

Most Bucks fans are unabashed Brandon Jennings apologists.  They see the missed shots, they see the low field goal percentage at the rim and they see occasionally questionable shot selection and it doesn’t bother them.  Aside from having someone to finally hitch the bandwagon to after years of suffering, there is a valid reason that Bucks fans have enjoyed watching Jennings.

He controls the game like someone twice his age.

Sometimes that’s trouble, but more often than not, he takes care of the ball and makes the right decisions.  All year long, Coach Skiles has talked about Jennings’ low turnovers and his poise for someone his age, but it wasn’t often reflected in his assist numbers.  There are a few reasons for this, poor shooting, players holding the ball too long and Andrew Bogut’s slow post up game.  So while the numbers don’t necessarily say Jennings has been a very good point guard, he has.

And the numbers were unusually kind to him in the Bucks Saturday afternoon blowout of the Heat in Miami.  11 points (4-10 FG 1-3 3FG), eight assists and five rebounds without committing a turnover, but Jennings has been clear that only one number means anything to him: 30.  As in 30 wins with just 28 losses.

Via Jennings Twitter:

My coach told me, I don’t get paid to play. I get Paid to WIN……………….!!! I like that, and I respect that. Read more…

Recap/Box Score

In front of what appeared to be only close friends and relatives of both teams, it was very clear that the Miami Heat can be boiled down to two parts: Dwyane Wade and a bunch of guys.  Just as clear Monday night was that the Bucks continue their recent uptick in play and are looking more and more like a team that has begun to figure things out.  I’ve been contesting that the Bucks have looked like a much better team since an overtime loss on Martin Luther King Jr. Day at Houston and the numbers don’t lie.

In the eight games starting with the loss at Houston, the Bucks are 5-3 with a +7.5 scoring margin.  One of the biggest reasons for the recent Bucks miniature surge has simply been consistent offense.  All season long the Bucks have played stifling defense, but have struggled to put the ball through the rim on the other end.  Andrew Bogut has averaged 20.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game, but the most important statistic for Bogut has been his 68 percent shooting.  All year he’s been pretty good for the Bucks, but he’s only been hitting around half it shots, which is a little below average for a seven-footer as talented as he.  The 68 percent shooting provides the Bucks a solid base for their attack.

(Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images) This is a confident bunch right here. Except Jodie Meeks, he's just kind of there.

Monday night, Bogut was again the focal point for the Bucks.  After missing their first 10 shots, the Bucks were able to find Bogut for a few easy ones to get them going.  Bogut finished the first quarter with eight, the Bucks finished the quarter with the lead and the Heat were just about finished, as they made only cursory runs the rest of the way.  I guess that’s what happens when Wade has a bad night, because Milwaukee has now seen D-Wade twice this year when he’s been off and the rest of the Heat haven’t responded kindly to their stars struggles. Read more…