Game the Fifth: Can the Bucks steal one on the road?
Wednesday, April 28th, 2010Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 2-2
at
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-2
Date: 4/28/2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: TNT/FS Wisconsin
“Most teams, the role players play better at home.”
- Jerry Stackhouse after game four
So Stack already has me a little concerned for game five. After notably strong efforts out of Dan Gadzuric, Carlos Delfino and Kurt Thomas in their game tying win on Monday, Milwaukee will need to once again get more out of their role players than Atlanta. That’s true of any team, everyone likes to get more out of their secondary players, but it’s especially true for a team like Milwaukee that’s featuring their role players much more heavily. One could argue that Atlanta has only three or four role players they’ll trot out there (Jamal Crawford, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams and if you want to label him as a role player, Al Horford), but Milwaukee has two main men in Brandon Jennings and John Salmons, flanked by role players. What’s nice about this is that it’s difficult to project which one will step up. What’s bad about this, is that it’s not always the case that anyone steps up. It’s tough to expect Carlos Delfino to hit another six threes, but if he can hit half of his threes and Ersan Ilyasova has another strong game, Milwaukee may not need much more than strong performances again out of Jennings and Salmons to pull this one out. (more…)
Game 3 Preview: Well, if it’s going to happen…
Saturday, April 24th, 2010It might as well be tonight, right?
Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 0-2
vs.
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-0
Date: 4/24/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN and FS Wisconsin
How in the world can the Bucks win this?
Take Advantage of Home Court
The Bucks haven’t played a meaningful home game this late in the year in nearly nine years. The Bradley Center crowd is going to want reasons to explode. Squad Six wants to get wild. Milwaukee trailed badly after the first quarter of game one and kind of bad in game two, another slow start could get the crowd out of it early and keep Atlanta’s confidence up. A fast start from Milwaukee could insert doubt into the minds of the Hawks. Atlanta was just 19-22 on the road this season.
It Ain’t Ova Till Ilyasova
Ersan Ilyasova is having a strong series and the cries to move him into the starting lineup have been getting louder. He’s averaging a double double at 12.5/10 and has a PER of 23.8. Even if he doesn’t start this one, he’ll certainly need to be on the court more than the 23.5 minutes he’s averaged so far this series. I know the Bucks value Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s defense very highly, but if he loses some minutes to make way for more Ersan, I don’t think anyone would have too much of a problem with that. It’s not like Ilyasova is a terrible defender. He gives great effort and rebounds the ball very well on the defensive end. He can’t possibly hurt the Bucks any more than they’ve been getting hurt.
The Bucks have outscored the Hawks by two points in the 48 minutes that Ersan Ilyasova has been on the court in this series. In the 48 minutes that Ilyasova has been on the bench in this series, the Bucks have been outscored by 22 points.
Time For ThomFino
Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino seem to be having some sort of secret competition for who can play worse this series. After both playing significant roles all season for Milwaukee, their play has fallen off a cliff. Perhaps age has caught up to Thomas and injuries to Delfino. Or maybe they both have just slumped at the wrong time. Whatever the case may be, Milwaukee needs to figure out if they can be fixed or if they need to be sat. Milwaukee simply can’t trot these two out for another 30 minutes each and get returns like they have the first two games
Thomas: 4.8 PER, 22.2 TS%, 7 PFs/4 PTS
Delfino: 5.1 PER, 35.5 TS%, 0-5 3FG
| Hawks | PPG | FG PCT. | RPG | BPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford | 17.5 | 55.6 | 8.5 | 4.0 |
| Josh Smith | 16.5 | 71.4 | 12.0 | 3.0 |
| Marvin Williams | 11.5 | 53.3 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Bucks | ||||
| LRMAM | 8.0 | 61.5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Delfino | 6.0 | 31.3 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Thomas | 2.0 | 22.2 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
Find A Way To Stop What’s Been Happening
The Hawks have been running like bulls in the first quarters of the last two games, turning Milwaukee turnovers into easy points. Their length on the perimeter has had Bucks guards dribbling away from the hoop and launching long passes all over the court. Predictably, the Hawks have feasted on these passes, turning them into easy scoring opportunities. Milwaukee needs to find a way to counter the Hawks aggressiveness, perhaps with a lineup free of LRMAM, to give Milwaukee five scoring threats at once. If Milwaukee can limit these instances and, as I’m been stressing, knock down a few more threes, a win remains possible.
Finding Salvation in Game One: Hawks 102 – Bucks 92
Sunday, April 18th, 2010So he’s still got it.
Good to know. Now if everyone else on the Bucks can get it together, this might be a very different series than the masses (I’m raising my hand especially high on this) expected.
It’s fitting that Brandon Jennings donned the cape in game one of the Bucks playoff series. After all, at the start of the season, he was the unknown variable. Coaches and teammates raved about his work in practice, but the pre-season didn’t indicate he’d be too significant a factor. Then he exploded in his first month and everyone was on notice. After that, the peaks were rare and the valleys steep, but Jennings would still show occasional spark. Milwaukeeans had pegged him as their big game guy, everyone’s hope down the stretch. Until John Salmons came along. Salmons has been the flavor of the moment since his arrival in the Mil, but in the back of our collective minds, we all know Jennings is the franchise’s future. The hopes and dreams of this franchise rest on Jennings slim shoulders. And for some time, that’s been rocky. Sure, he had the great start, but had we placed a square peg in a round hole? Is the burden of star too much for him to bare? The regular season isn’t the place to find that answer. No, that’s a test reserved for the end of the season, when the pressure is really on.
And Jennings appears to be on his way to passing with flying colors.
35 points (14-25 FG 4-6 3FG 2-4 FT), three rebounds and three assists. Jennings had the largest percentage of his team’s points of any rookie ever making their playoff debut and scored the fourth most points for a rookie in their playoff debut. In short, he turned back the clock to November. About the only things missing was a win.
Which is kind of a big deal.
But, only kind of. Look, I’d like the Bucks to win this series or even just a couple games as much as the next person, but it’s important to look at the bigger picture here. The most important thing about getting to the playoffs this season was so the younger players, namely Jennings, could get the feel for it and even more important, a hunger for more. What would serve as a better motivator this off-season for him and the rest of the younger Bucks players than this taste of the post-season spotlight? Next season, the Bucks should then come back stronger with a group that’s been working and now has post-season experience. By next October, Milwaukee should be ready to strive to surpass the semi-lofty expectations sure to be placed on them next season.
And it all starts here.
So that’s why I can’t put somewhat of a happy face on a performance that, at times, was borderline unwatchable. Virtually everything about the first half was straight out of my worst case scenario booklet for this series.
So it’s a good thing I’m looking ahead. And an even better thing that I think I really have something to look forward to. (more…)
Which team is most likely to get it done in the clutch?
Thursday, April 15th, 2010My gut instinct tells me it’s the Hawks.
Joe Johnson is a star, right? Stars win games late, that’s just how the NBA goes. That’s what I’ve long assumed, that’s what I feel like I’ve witnessed time and time again. Johnson must be the best late game player either team has, simply because he’s the best player in this series.
But do the numbers confirm that? Thanks to the Clutch Stats feature at 82games.com, I was able to run some numbers to determine which players are most likely to get the ball down the stretch for each of these two teams in close games. The numbers paint an interesting picture when determining which players should be trusted most down in close games this series and who should be giving the ball up at all costs.
| FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | PCT of FGA Jumpers | eFG% Jumpers | PCT of FGA Inside | eFG% Inside | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | ||||||||
| Joe Johnson | 0.468 | 100 | 91.9 | 33 | 86 | 49.4 | 14 | 61.5 |
| Jamal Crawford | 0.245 | 58 | 86.2 | 29 | 81 | 22.1 | 19 | 50 |
| Josh Smith | 0.419 | 53 | 70 | 20 | 42 | 22.2 | 58 | 56 |
| Mike Bibby | 0.276 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 37.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | ||||||||
| Brandon Jennings | 0.369 | 110 | 91.3 | 46 | 78 | 48.1 | 22 | 30.4 |
| John Salmons | 0.385 | 43 | 90.9 | 22 | 72 | 55.4 | 28 | 27.3 |
| Luke Ridnour | 0.462 | 41 | 83.3 | 18 | 82 | 39.1 | 18 | 85.7 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | 0.500 | 37 | 68.8 | 16 | 63 | 55.0 | 37 | 58.3 |
- The numbers would indicate that the more Jamal Crawford shoots down the stretch in tight games, the better Bucks fans should feel. I know Crawford has hit a few buzzer beaters this year, but I wonder how many he missed before hitting those? It seems likely from looking at the numbers that the Hawks only needed game winners in those games because they hadn’t been making any shots before them. Crawford’s 24.5 FG% in the last five minutes of close games is down right awful. Please, take all the shots you see fit Crawford. At the last couple Hawks-Bucks games, a local media member always wondered if this would be the game Crawford would shoot the Hawks out of or in to. He shot them out of the first game in Milwaukee and didn’t play in game two. One can only hope, for the Bucks sake, that Crawford keeps shooting them out.
- John Salmons has the most bizarre split of any player in this series. Salmons has been a sensational jump shooter down the homestretch of games. His eFG% on jumpers of 55.4 is even better than Joe Johnson’s. But what’s going on once Salmons gets inside? Inside, Salmons numbers fall to 27.3 or Brandon Jennings type numbers (even Jennings is better!). Considering Salmons is the one player on the Bucks that generally has the easiest time getting to the hoop, they’ll need him to improve on that figure drastically if they want to do more than just hang around in close games.
- Ersan Ilyasova has a pretty bad reputation as a lousy clutch player and it’s occasionally deserved. But I think it’s based more on his early season adventures (remember that first Bulls game … I do) rather than his whole body of production. The numbers indicate that Ilyasova has actually been pretty good in close games, even if his free throw shooting hasn’t been spectacular.
- Ahh, free throw shooting. The one area where the Bucks really shine. With Jennings and Salmons both over 90% late in games, if the Bucks do have a lead late, they can feel pretty good about protecting it if the game comes down to fouling.
So how does the star Joe Johnson fare? His work is the most balanced and his sample size is pretty good. I don’t want to over simplify, but the Hawks can probably feel pretty good about things whenever the ball is in his hands late in games. Frequently overlooked as he may be, Johnson certainly is a star in this league and he’s very likely to show why throughout this series.
A Grim View of What Lies Ahead: Hawks 104 – Bucks 96
Tuesday, April 13th, 2010“Snap back to reality, oh there goes gravity.”
- Eminem
There are reasons inside this one big reason why the Bucks had all kinds of problems with the Hawks Monday night, but we all know there is one reason that looms large:
Andrew Bogut in street clothes.
The trickledown effects of Bogut being out appeared so severe Monday night, that I’m not sure I see any way the Bucks could be able to overcome them four times in seven games. Of course, that’s what Milwaukee would need to do if they want to beat the Hawks in a playoff series. And with the Bucks 104-96 loss Monday night, combined with the Heat’s two point victory over Philadelphia, it’s looking awfully likely that the Bucks will now end up playing Atlanta in the series this city wants to avoid.
The games are less fun, the Hawks aren’t very villainy and the Bucks chances seem infinitely lower against Atlanta.
Aside from the obvious reasons (he’s Milwaukee’s best player and best defender), why is Bogut’s absence magnified so greatly against the Hawks? First, it’s the switching. Oh my, the switching. This is one thing that sets Atlanta apart as a defensive team and speaks to their versatility. Any time Milwaukee runs a pick and roll, Atlanta straight up switches it. If Kurt Thomas comes and sets a screen for Brandon Jennings, Al Horford will guard Jennings and Joe Johnson wil guard Thomas. And it doesn’t leave Atlanta in a bad spot. Horford is skilled enough as a perimeter defender that he makes it difficult for Jennings to get by him for an easy hoop.
Coach Scott Skiles wasn’t thrilled with his guards’ efforts in attacking in these situations.
“They’re switching centers onto our guards. A pro guard has got to be able to go by a center and do something. That’s the reality of it. We took way too many jumpshots. It’s something we’ve got to be much better at. Nothing against Al or Zaza (Pachulia), but if those guys are switching onto point guards or two guards, you’ve got to make them pay.”
But with Josh Smith lurking in the shadows behind the big guys on the outside, getting by the bigs and to the rim with success is easier said than done.
“When you’re switching a guy and you got Josh Smith on you, you think you can just take him to the rack but, he’s a guy who can move and he’s a great shot-blocker. It’s kind of real tough, we’re standing a lot on offense, not a lot of ball movement.”
So ball movement may be the answer?
“Well, you can’t just pass and keep going through. You gotta try and attack but, you know, you got somebody under there and guys just keep rotating. I think their length is unbelievable. They’re like an AAU team. “
If only the Bucks had a way to exploit any mismatches they did have on these switches. After all, Mike Bibby was on the court for 34 minutes, isn’t there a better way to attack him on the pick and roll. Ah, that’s where Bogut’s injury comes into play again. Sure, Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Ersan Ilyasova are all much bigger than Bibby, but how often are any of them looking to back a guy down? The last time these teams met, I counted three separate occasions in which LRMAM either got the ball on a swing or grabbed an offensive rebound with Bibby on him and failed to attack. Without Bogut, there are very few easy shots for the Bucks.
No, without Bogut, the Bucks are taking lots of long shots and looking at some long games ahead of them. The reality is, life without Bogut isn’t going to be pretty for the Bucks come playoff time. And this is just the start. (more…)
