Sometimes when Milwaukee has won this season, it hasn’t really felt like a win.  I’ll point to a 79-72 victory over the Golden State Warriors at home as a prime example.  Milwaukee didn’t play well that night, they just didn’t plays as bad as the Warriors.  A win is a win, but that felt hollow and no answers to the Bucks problems emerged from it.

Saturday night at home against the Charlotte Bobcats though, the Bucks looked like they had won.  No question about it.  They out-executed, out-shot and just generally out-played the Bobcats.  Given the way things have been going this season, that is no small feat.  And given that Milwaukee was without Andrew Bogut, Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, it was really impressive.

Until the last three minutes and five seconds at least.

Milwaukee spent that final three minutes blowing an 11-point lead and seemed sure to be headed for a tie game with 7.1 seconds to play after Gerald Wallace was fouled heading to the rim in a two point game.  Unfortunately for Wallace, he was injured on the fall, leaving him out of the game and the Bucks free to pick his replacement.

Obviously, they picked Kwame Brown. Yes, that Kwame Brown.

Brown, a 57.1% career free throw shooter, stayed trued to form and missed one of two.  Brandon Jennings was fouled on the inbound, made two free throws and the Bobcats allowed the Bucks to breathe easy by missing a desperation three at the buzzer.

Offense

The pick and roll between Jennings and Milwaukee bigs hasn’t been working out so well this season.  So often, Jennings is left going nowhere and a big man rolls to the hoop with no hope of receiving a pass.  Saturday night though, primarily in the first quarter, Milwaukee effectively was able to use John Salmons as a screener with Jennings.  After screening, Salmons could roll away from the hoop, either opening something up for Jennings or getting himself the ball off a Jennings pass with a mismatched defender on him.  Salmons was able to get some post-ups against smaller players and better looks at the basket.  I’ve document Salmons struggles virtually all the time this season, so I’ll give credit where it is due, he was very effective and had everything to do with a 29-point Milwaukee first quarter, hitting five of six shots and scoring 10 points.  He finished with 16 points, but wasn’t forcing the issue as often (though he did a bit in the fourth quarter), and further cemented the theory that when he plays well, the Bucks play well.

• Jennings wasn’t so shabby himself.  When he wasn’t picking and rolling with Salmons, he was catching passes from teammates while planted firmly outside the 3-point line and hitting open threes.  In Milwaukee’s losses they’ve shot just 23.7% on 3-pointers as a team.  Jennings has been particularly bad, hitting just 12 of 52 threes in losses.  On each of his four first half makes on Saturday though, he had time to set himself and take a balanced, consistent jump-shot.  Things weren’t so smooth in the second half, as the Bobcats stayed a little closer to him and he was forced to rush more often than not, but he still finished a respectable six of 13 from three.  Overall, he finished with 32 points on 10 of 21 shooting and tossed in seven assists against just two turnovers.  This was definitely Good Jennings.

• Ersan Ilyasova got his first start of the season with Bogut still dealing with some back soreness and Jon Brockman not bringing much to the table and he responded.  Milwaukee ran a number of plays through him in the high post and he was quick in making decisions, whether he was trying to force passes into open baseline cutters (resulted in two turnovers) or kicking it out to an open Jennings (see all those 3-pointers Jennings hit).  Ilyasova had a surprising six assists in the game.  That didn’t prevent him from doing some old school Ilyasova things though, as he hit three of six 3-pointers en route to 17 points.  He also grabbed nine rebounds, three of them offensive.  That’s the Ilyasova we all want to see every night.

• Pre-game, Scott Skiles was worried Chris Douglas-Roberts was a little too out of it to make much of an impact, having not gone through a full contact practice yet.  Funny how things work out.  His connecting on open jumpers was a sight for sore eyes and, before making a stupid foul to give Charlotte a 3-point-play on the next possession, seemed to have sealed the game with his own 3-point-play late in the fourth quarter.  Mental mistake and defensive struggles aside though, CD-R’s apparent ability to make open shots and score is a very, VERY welcome addition to these Milwaukee Bucks.  He finished with 11 points on four of six shooting.

Defense

Milwaukee shot 67.7% in the first half, made 13 of 16 free throws, had 17 assists on 21 made shots, made five of nine threes …. and had just a seven point lead.  Why?  For the second consecutive game, defense was a bit of an issue.  In the games first 24 minutes, The Bobcats shot 50% themselves and converted on 16 of 19 free throw attempts.  The defensive issues continued into the third quarter, but Milwaukee did just enough offensively to keep their defensive issues at bay until the defense returned to form in the fourth quarter.  At least it returned to form until the free throw parade started.  Milwaukee allowed the Bobcats to go 14 of 16 from the stripe in the final quarter, turning a blowout into a nail-biter.  For the game, the Bbcats made 35 of 41 free throws.

• While the Bucks still struggled in the third quarter to keep the Bobcats shooting percentage down, they countered that by forcing five turnovers.  The Bucks won the turnover battle 15-12 in the game and even did a good job of capitalizing on Charlotte turnovers, scoring 21 points off them.

• In place of the ailing Gooden (plantar faciitis) Larry Sanders made his first start and results were generally positive.  He hit a couple open looks, he finished at the hop with a powerful dunk against Tyrus Thomas and he made his presence known defensively with a shot-clock violation inducing rejection.  Sanders can still make his biggest impact defensively by coming off the ball and blocking shots in that way.  Rebounding is still a work in progress for him, as after grabbing 10 against the Pistons he managed just three against the Bobcats, but it’s exciting to see him progressing, if only ever so slightly.

From 415

This one came more from 225, by the Bobcats bench.  A gentleman seemed to be particularly mesmerized by Bobcats coach Larry Brown’s insistence on standing to coach his team for the majority of the game.

“SIT DOWN, LARRY BROWN!”

It kind of made me think of Charlie Brown and the Great Pumpkin, or maybe just Charlie Brown in general.  Though it wasn’t effective in getting Brown to sit down, it was rhythmic and amusing.

Final Thoughts

This certainly wasn’t the 3-0 week many were hoping for last Sunday.  Blown opportunities in Cleveland and Detroit matched an awful effort against the Thunder last Saturday and Milwaukee was staring at a sixth straight loss before Saturday’s game with a brutal schedule ahead.  Aside from the toll losses like recent ones take on a team’s record, Milwaukee had gone a long time without having felt good about anything they accomplished.  Players aren’t robots, that kind of thing hurts a lot.  A win against another struggling and under-performing Eastern conference team isn’t a long term remedy, but it’s a small mental boost for a team that sorely needed one.

And with the four games Milwaukee has coming up, it’s possible they won’t have anything else to feel good about for a while.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (to the right).

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vs

Charlotte Bobcats (Larry Brown) 0-2
Inactive: Kwame Brown, Dominic McGuire, Eduardo Najera

Date: 10/30/2010
Game Time: 7:30 PM (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

The Other Guys: Queen City Hoops

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. DJ Augustin

Removing the month of November last season and a March game in Sacramento, Brandon Jennings was a 33% 3-point shooter last season.  This season, he’s 2-12 from behind the arc.  I’m not saying he’s a bad 3-point shooter, but I’m saying it’s certainly something worth keeping an eye.  His ridiculous November last year certainly masked some ills.  When we separate it and treat it as a fluke, the picture is not quite as pretty.  He whiffed on a lot of very clean, open looks Friday night that could have really helped out Milwaukee.  If he’s not making those reliably this season, that changes a lot for the Bucks.  Augustin has shooting problems of his own.  He’s 7-29 on the season.  His size gives him trouble defensively too.  There aren’t many point guards in the league that Jennings can muscle up, but Augustin is one of them.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Stephen Jackson

Salmons has scored 12 points this season and committed seven turnovers.  So that pretty accurately sums up how things have gone for him in two games.  He’s bound to improve on that, but how much?  He slumped badly in Chicago after starting so strong when they acquired him.  Should the Bucks prepare themselves for a significant drop in production from Salmons?  We’ll have a better idea in a month.  Jackson is still Stephen Jackson and can still torch the Bucks.  Milwaukee’s a lot bigger than they used to be and Jackson certainly used to take advantage of that.  He won’t have free reign, but could still pose a lot of problems for Milwaukee.

Advantage: Bobcats

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Gerald Wallace

Wallace isn’t rebounding with the same viciousness that he did last season, dropping from his 10 a game to a more believable 7.5, but he’s still a load for opposing small forwards.  His athleticism and fearlessness are reminiscent of Corey Maggette, just with less volume.  At least historically.  This season Wallace has ramped things up and has been awarded 24 free throws in two games.  Given the way the Bucks have allowed free throws this season, that could be an issue tonight.  Delfino has been one of the better Bucks, but didn’t get many looks on Friday.  They’ll need to look to him for open threes early in the night, just to get someone going from long range.  He’s without question the best shooter in the Bucks starting lineup.  The way Jennings and Salmons have shot, he’s starting to look like the only one.

Advantage: Bobcats

Power Forward

Drew Gooden vs. Boris Diaw

Boris Diaw is no David West and he’s no Kevin Love.  So for the first time, Gooden shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the opposing power forward.  But he can’t slack either.  10 of Diaw’s 21 shot attempts this season have been 3-pointers, so Gooden will need to be hustling about to make sure he can help out and then get back to Diaw behind the arc.  Offensively, Gooden will have a nice size advantage over Diaw and should be able to turn in a high percentage outing.  Milwaukee doesn’t want to feature Drew Gooden offensively though, so hopefully the majority of his points come on pick and pops or put-backs.  That’s an ideal scenario for Gooden.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Nazr Mohammed

Many years ago, Milwaukee would go inside to Bogut on the first play of the game.  Then he would stand around and watch guards shoot questionable shots and ignore him for the remaining 46 minutes.  No one wants to see that again.  Bogut attempted just seven shots against Minnesota.  Some of the blame goes to him, he got in foul trouble and maybe passed on a few occasions in which he should have shot, but whatever the case may be, Bogut needs to get more shots.  It’s clear that the Bucks are significantly less successful with Bogut off the floor, now they just need him to be more aggressive when he’s on it for them to get past their early struggles.  Mohammed is a big, physical center, but he’s ultimately a backup center.  The second best center in the league should have his way with the journeyman Mohammed.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Corey Maggette, Ersan Ilyasova, Keyon Dooling, Jon Brockman and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

vs.

Tyrus Thomas, Shawn Livingston, DeSagana Diop, Gerald Henderson and Derrick Brown

If Corey Maggette didn’t exist and the Bucks bench just played six players on Friday night, their line would have looked like this: 13 points (6-20 FG 0-4 3FG 1-2 FT), 10 rebounds, four assists, four turnovers and 17 personal fouls.  That, friends, is a disaster.  Milwaukee absolutely must find some other solutions off the bench, aside from Maggette.  It was nice to see Mbah a Moute and Brockman return, but they provided little more than energy.  Brockman needs to do the rebounding he was brought in to do.  Mbah a Moute still looks fairly hopeless anywhere on the offense aside from directly underneath the rim.  He still looked good defensively, but Milwaukee’s offensive problems are so significant right now, it’s difficult to forget his issues on that end.  Charlotte may be one of the only teams in the league that poses less of a threat from behind the arc than Milwaukee.  The Bucks can cling to Maggette’s one made 3-pointer off the bench, but the Bobcats have yet to see a backup hit a three.  This could get ugly tonight.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 89 – Bobcats 86

Third time is a charm, right?  I know I keep picking the Bucks and they continue to lose, but I’ll get my thumb on this team yet.  Few teams lose their home openers, if Milwaukee drops this one, I’d be even more surprised than I was last night.  The Bucks are bound to have a few players return to form and make some shots.  This will be Salmons third game back, I’d peg him as a hopeful.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan of Bucksketball on Facebook (to the right).

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(Likely) Inactives: Joe Alexander, Roko Ukic and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

Charlotte Bobcats (Larry Brown) 11-17

(Likely) Inactives: Tyson Chandler, Alexis Ajinca and Acie Law

Date: 12/28/2009

Time: 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Ray Felton

We may be forced to wait until Michael Redd is gone to see Brandon Jennings blossom once again.  It’s not so much the misses that have been troubling out of Jennings lately, it’s the passiveness.  It’s almost as if he’s trying to over pass to Redd because he knows that’s the only way he’ll get out of Milwaukee.  The Bucks could sorely use some more decisive drives out of Jennings though.  With Redd on the court, he’s been reduced to a perimeter passer and shooter.  There has been very few moments of drive and kick or drive and drop passes to Bogut.  And the pick and roll that once worked so well with Andrew Bogut has become woefully ineffective lately.  Just one of the many things going wrong in Milwaukee as of late.  Oddly enough, Jennings is still taking care of the ball and racking up assists, so it’s hard to complain too much.  But the Bucks need him to do so much more than just manage the game.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Michael Redd vs. Stephen Jackson

Word is that Jodie Meeks might get a start on Monday night, and in that case Redd will likely slide over to the two and the Bucks will likely start out poorly again, as Redd cannot hang with Gerald Wallace and Meeks likely will have trouble against Stephen Jackson.  Coach Skiles was asked before the game Saturday if Redd and Jennings were a tough fit together because they both needed the ball to be effective, here was his response:

I’ve never understood what that means because who doesn’t need the ball?  Even if I drive down the lane and I throw a lob up to Bogut he has to catch it and dunk it to be effective.  At some point it has to be in his hands.  So I’ve never understood what that means aside from a stiff who’s just out there screening for everybody, and then you can’t have him in the game because he can’t make a basket.

When the Bucks were then getting blown out midway through the second quarter later that evening I looked down at Michael Redd’s line to see 2-9 shooting, four points and zero rebounds/assists/steals.  So unless Michael Redd was shooting, he literally was doing nothing to help the Bucks.  I think that might be someone being ineffective without the ball.  The Bobcats have been riding Captain Jack for over 40 minutes a night and he seems to have free reign on offense.  It hasn’t resulted in a lot of great nights, but the Bucks defense of recent memory could help him with that.

Advantage: Bobcats

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Gerald Wallace

Wallace’s rebounding is hard to keep considering an anomaly at this point.  He’s still at 11.9 rebounds per game after never eclipsing eight a night before this year.  The most logical explanations for the board boon would be the Bobcats generally poor team shooting percentage of 43.8 and the loss of Emeka Okafor to New Orleans.  Tyson Chandler has been playing hurt and only grabbing around eight rebounds a night, leaving lots to be grabbed.  Whether it’s Delfino, Redd or Meeks that gets stuck on Wallace they’ll have their hands full with him on offense and defense.  In Charlotte’s visit to the Bradley Center last month, Wallace seemed content to shoot jumpers, but I don’t expect that same Wallace to show up at home.

Advantage: Charlotte

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Boris Diaw

After squaring off with the rebound hungry DeJuan Blair on Saturday, I’m sure Ilyasova will be much happier facing Diaw, who’s considerably more at home floating around the perimeter and acting as a point forward.  Blair never stopped working for rebounds and was an absolute load to keep off the glass.  Ilyasova has been in a fierce tailspin of late and his confidence looks to be at an all-time low.  The pump faking is back in full force and that never results in anything good for him.  He’s at his best when he’s decisive and shooting on catches.

Advantage: Charlotte

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Nazr Mohammed

I’d feel a lot better about Bogut’s chances in this game, and every game, if he could develop anything from 15 feet.  It’s so hard for him to be consistent when only relying on baby and sweeping hooks.  It may not seem like it, but those are incredibly tough shots and always leave him out of position when it comes to rebounding.  It’s hard to ever be consistent or dominant with those as your only moves and that’s why we see some game where Bogut can shoot 14-18 and others where he ends 6-20.  That’s just the kind of swings that hook shots allow for.  He’s never going to get easy dunks, but if a team had to respect him from 15 feet he may have an easier time getting to the basket.  Bogut has a good chance to be effective against this team, especially with Tyson Chandler out.  Mohammed has remarkably shot over 60 percent this year and has pretty much played out of his min, but doesn’t bring a lot on defense.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jodie Meeks, Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas and Charlie Bell

vs.

Derrick Brown, D.J. Augustin, Stephen Graham and Ronald Murray

Not a lot here for the Bobcats as they play two of their starters over 40 minutes a night.  It’ll be interesting to see how Jodie Meeks does after a very strong game against the Spurs.  He’s probably the Bucks most athletic guard and would be well served to take it to the hoop more often and up his aggressiveness.  Hakim Warrick played well Saturday, but it was mostly garbage jumpers that happened to fall, not exactly the blueprint to success for him.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bobcats 99 – Bucks 89

The Bobcats are 10-4 at home coming into this game, so it’d be quite an upset if the typically terrible road Bucks can pull this one off.  Heading to Orlando next doesn’t bode well for Milwaukee either.  This week could be an especially long one for Milwaukee Buck fans, as the playoff spot the Bucks have been fighting to hold onto may fall out of their hands before Saturday’s game at home against the Thunder.

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The kid just keeps topping himself and upping his own ante.  Without his two best teammates and in his first game without Andrew Bogut Jennings was his typical (crazy I’m already saying this is typical, isn’t it?) self in scoring 29 points and contributing seven assists to only two turnovers.  His impact was clear right off the bat.

In the last three games, to say the Bucks have come out of the gate sluggish has been very kind.  They’ve stunk it up defensively in first quarters since the Knicks left town.  Coincidentally (or not?) Jennings hasn’t been able to get his offense going until the second half of each of those games.  On a night when the Bucks were missing their two best defenders (Bogut and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute) one might have thought it would be safe to assume the Bucks defense would struggle mightily in the first quarter again.

Think again.

It wasn’t the stingiest effort, but the Bucks played with a vigor not seen in the past few effort.  Naturally, Jennings opened the game with 17 points in the first period.  The way the team’s defense fed off his hot shooting on offense was something I am not talented enough a writer to describe.  Everyone played harder.  They played more together.  They had hands up, they had their legs in defensive croutches, they made quick decisive movements on defense and they grabbed rebounds like the wanted to crush the ball.  Energy was back on the Bucks’ side.

Sure they only took the first period 30-25, but control of the game was clear.  This was the Bucks game.

Offense

I usually don’t spend a lot of time talking about the little things.  Don’t get me wrong, I like the little things.  There are so many of them that they add up and sometimes are more important than the big things.  They can just be hard to track.  But not tonight.  Tonight the little things were clear because every time I looked up and saw a little thing getting done, it was Charlie Bell doing it.

Whether it was him diving into the crowd, coming out of the scrum with his dribble alive and the ball secure or grabbing that tipped rebound loose for anyone, it was always Bell to answer the call.  Sure, his PER isn’t great and he doesn’t get to the free throw line, but Charlie Bell deserves credit for what he’s been doing.  And how has he had so much success with those little things this year?  Charlie himself lets us know:

It’s not all about scoring.  It’s about making the right plays, making plays for teammates.  I try and lead by example.  You can talk all you want, but if you don’t go out there and do what you say you going to do, ain’t nobody going to listen to you.

• It was evident that someone aside from Jennings was going to at least provide some kind of support on offense for the Bucks Friday night and the power forward position provided the boost the Bucks needed.  Ersan Ilyasova contributed 13 points, while Hakim Warrick from his comfort zone on the bench, snapped out of a funk and pitched in 16 points.  To show he was REALLY back, Warrick even threw down a nasty dunk in the first quarter.

Defense

• I said I’d be happy with 12/12 out of Kuran Gadzuromas tonight.  Six points, ten rebounds and four assists was enough to suffice though.  Thomas was especially assertive on the glass, grabbing seven rebounds himself and always looking ready to knock anyone out who tried to pry it from his vice-grip hands.  Both provided more than enough defense on the Bobcats not-so-stellar center duo of Nazr Mohammed and Alexis Ajinca.  The Bucks spent a lot of timing matching the “we’re going small with Boris Diaw at center” Bobcats though.  In these cases, Ersan did just fine.

• About that allowing free throw thing again though … still not under control.  The Bobcats almost shot more free throws than they did field goals (43-59)!  Fortunately, no one on the ‘Cats had any shot all night from the line.  It was a very high schoolesque performance from the stripe for the Bobcats Friday.  Stephen Jackson was the biggest offender at 4-9.

• Does anyone remember when Gerald Wallace used to take it to the basket?  He apparently doesn’t, or at least he didn’t until the fourth quarter.  Wallace spent much of the game taking terrible shots from the perimeter despite the Bucks being without their interior anchor and best shot blocker.  Thanks Crash!

Overall, this was exactly what the Bucks needed heading on the road for a four game swing to the West.  In addition, they found a line-up that featured Ersan at center and Warrick at the four that allowed them to match-up well when the Bobcats went small.  If they use that to force mis-matches while Bogut is out, they might be able to survive his absence better than anyone is predicting.

They’re already off to a pretty good start.

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(Likely) Inactives: Alexis Ajinca

at

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 6-3

(Likely) Inactives: Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd and Joe Alexander

Game time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FSN Wisconsin

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Ray Felton

Felton waited around all summer hoping he could find a team to rescue him from Bobcat mediocrity.  He was unsuccessful.  So now he plays on a one-year deal, hoping again he’ll be rescued after this season.  He shouldn’t expect much though.  Felton has virtually the exact same season every year he’s been in the NBA.  I’d bet my life on it that he finishes this year with a shooting percentage of about 40, roughly six or seven assists a game, 13-15 points and a PER between 13 and 14.  That’s his ceiling, but it’s also his floor.  He’s a very average point guard in every sense and probably ideally a backup.  I know D.J. Augustin has struggled thus far in 2009-19, but it puzzles me that they don’t throw him out there.  He was better than Felton last year and has some real potential to be pretty good.  Oh, because they’re the Bobcats.  That’s right.  It will be very interesting to see how Jennings plays in his very first game without Andrew Bogut. The Bogut/Jennings pick and roll has been one of Milwaukee’s biggest weapons to date and I don’t think he has an obviously replacement partner ready.  That is unless Ersan can step up.

Advantage: Milwaukee

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Stephen Jackson

Roughly one week after watching Brandon Jennings explode for 55 points, Stephen Jackson is back, albeit under much better circumstances.  Sure the Bobcats have lost six in a row, but they still aren’t the Warriors.  Jack was brought on to give the ‘Cats some offensive punch and through two games he’s done jut that, averaging nearly 20 points per game.  He’s shooting a lot and at a poor percentage, but it’s likely that will come back to life.  His attempts will stay high on a team that offers little else in the way of shot creation.  Jackson’s first and usually second seasons don’t often sour with new teams, so expect this marriage to continue on happily at least through the rest of this year.  Unless the Larry Brown factor speeds that all up.

Advantage: Bobcats

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Gerald Wallace

Wallace’s nickname is “Crash” and he is the kind of player Larry Brown dreams about at night (at least when he’s showing good shot selection he is).  Wallace is incredibly athletic, a great shot blocker and a threat in the passing lanes.  Wallace’s shots are down this year despite playing more minutes than ever before, but his rebounds have skyrocketed.  He’s averaging 11.5 boards per game and will likely cause all kinds of glass related problems all night with Bogut not in the middle clogging things up.  Delfino was able to really get off for the first time last game and ideally he’ll be able to follow that up and pick up some of the offensive slack, but against Wallace that will be tough to do.

Advantage: Bobcats

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Boris Diaw

The stage is all yours E.I.  With Bogut out, everyone is going to need to contribute justalittlebit more.  Ersan is already the Bucks best rebounder and is quickly blossoming into one of their best defenders.  Now they need him to take another step as a scoring threat.  He’s an obvious answer to the question of who can run the pick and roll with Jennings in Bogut’s absence.  He may not have Bogut’s touch around the rim, but he’s a huge threat to pick and pop.  Think Dirk Lite. Very very lite.  Diaw is always a threat as one of those perimeter oriented four’s who can make plays and pass the ball, but those guys don’t seem to bother Ilyasova.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Kuran Gadzuromas vs. Tyson Chandler

You may have heard that Andrew Bogut is out for two-four weeks and has taken a considerable amount of the excitement surrounding the Bucks early season success with him.  In his place the Bucks will likely be matching up with Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric.  I’d think Gadz will get the start against Tyson.  I’ve always said Gadz can been very good in limited minutes, but he’s no starting NBA center.  If he and Thomas can give the Bucks 35 minutes of 12-12 production while Bogut’s away, they’ll have a chance to take a few more than people suspect.  The Bucks may luck out and miss Chander, he’s dealing with a lower back problem and is questionable for Friday’s game.  If he can’t go, Nazr Mohmmed would likely get the start for Charlotte.  Coincidentally, Nazr Mohmmed is one of the answers to the question: Who makes you feel better about having Gadzuric starting with Bogut out?

Advantage: Bobcats (Assuming Chandler is in)

Bench

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick and the center who doesn’t start

vs.

D.J. Augustin, Ronald Murray, Mohmmed

The Bob’s don’t go super deep into their bench and with good reason.  Augustin has fallen off a bit since a breakout rookie season and by a bit I mean he’s dropped across the board.  Who knows how much of it is due to Felton’s return and Brown’s rotation shuffles, but one way or the other they need to get him back on track.  Murray still scores copious amounts of points while playing a precious little amount of defense.  He scorched the Bucks with the Hawks last year and could be a factor again for the usually offensively challenged Bobcats.  The Bucks depth is being challenged early this year with the losses of first Michael Redd and now Bogut.  This “three-deep” thing is getting an early workout and so far I can’t complain.  We’ll see how the centers fare though.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bobcats 88 – Bucks 83

Charlotte will play some defense.  They won’t allow Jennings to run free, especially without his pick and roll partner Bogut.  Larry Brown will have this team prepared and focused, despite their six game losing streak coming in.  This is the kind of team you hate to face.  They’ll be hungry and they’ll know the Bucks are a big chance for them to get one on the road.  As much as the Dallas and Denver games were tests against upper echelon teams, this is even more of a test.  Can the Bucks beat a hungry team with a poor record without one of their two most important players?  I’d be surprised if it doesn’t take them a game or two to figure out how to adapt to a Bogut-less line-up.

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