Enemy: 8 Points 9 Seconds

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Darren Collison

Darren Collison surprised everyone with his stellar play when Chris Paul went down last season. After getting traded to the Pacers in the offseason, Collison was handed the starting job when he arrived. Collison is averaging 14p/3r/4a per game on 46% shooting. On paper, Jennings is a better volume scorer, with his current statline reading 18p/4r/5a on 39% shooting. It’s hard to tell who will win this matchup. When the Bucks beat the Pacers 94-90 on the road in November, Jennings had 18 points on 7-19 shooting with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 2 turnovers. Collison blanketed Jennings with 19 points on 5-13 shooting, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 5 steals, and 3 turnovers. Jennings has a knack for playing better in Milwaukee, so edge goes to the good guys.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Mike Dunleavy

Dunleavy shoots 45% from the floor. Salmons doesn’t quite hit 37%. In a year that’s been dictated by offensive struggles, shooting percentage means everything.

Advantage: Pacers

Small Forward
Luc Mbah a Moute vs. Danny Granger

Danny Granger has yet to decide if he is a franchise player. Averaging 21.5 ppg, he’s right around in the Joe Johnson land of players that get paid because of their scoring ability. Moute on the other hand has yet to realize any fruits of his offensive-focused offseason, and will eventually earn a paycheck based on his defensive prowess. If Moute sticks to Granger like glue, we might have another sub 80 point game for both teams.

Advantage: Pacers

Power Forward
Larry Sanders vs. Josh McRoberts

Drew Gooden is out today, and will not join the team until at least next week according to Charles Gardner. So the Larry Sanders experiment continues, and against an opponent like Josh McRoberts, Larry can really prove that he deserves a permanent spot in the rotation.

Advantage: Bucks!

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Roy Hibbert

Hibbert is shooting his way (51%) to a nice season, averaging almost 16p/9r a game. He has size and height on his side, but has not yet developed a presence down low like Bogut has. That said, Bogut struggled to get any kind of position on the likes of Erick Dampier and Joel Anthony on Monday. I’m confident Bogut will bounce back, but if he doesn’t Hibbert might steal the show.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Keyon Dooling and Ersan Ilyasova

vs.

Brandon Rush, T.J. Ford, James Posey, Tyler Hansbrough and Solomon Jones

Corey Maggette is coming off a very Corey Maggette like game against the Heat. 20 points on 6-12 shooting and 7-9 from the charity stripe. After that, production was minimal. Chris Douglas-Roberts was effective in the 15 minutes he got, but until Skiles decides to cut back on Salmon’s minutes, CDR’s contributions will be minimal. Brandon Rush is quickly becoming the Pacers’ JR Smith, with hitting 3, 3, and 6 three-pointers in his last three games. His meteoric play, coupled with the Bucks propensity to collapse on drives has me worried.

Advantage: Pacers

The Pacers are a very middle of the pack team when it comes to offense and defense. They are actually 1 rebound per game better than the Bucks at 43.8, good for 4th in the league. We know by now that Milwaukee will be missing a bunch of shots tonight, so they will need to step up their rebounding game after Monday night’s 48-35 drubbing by the Heat. Control the boards, control the game.

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Saturday night I ventured to Buffalo Wild Wings for dinner.  Unfortunately, the wait was to be over 30 minutes and my friends and I were too hungry to wait..  With a lack of other options in the area, we settled on Applebees.

I’m not an Applebees guy; they’ve screwed up my mediocre food far too many times, so I was heading there with trepidation to begin with.  The mental transition I had to make in going from wings at BW3’s to whatever I’d have at Applebees had me down too.  Naturally, after we were seated and ordered, each of my friends received their food, while mine didn’t arrive.  A mistake was made, the order wasn’t placed and my food wasn’t ready.  I had to wait another 10 minutes to get my food.

My meal ended up being better than I expected and they gave it to me on the house for my troubles, so when it was all said and done I was pretty pleased with the end result.  Still, the process I went through was unsatisfying.

And by describing my Saturday evening dining experience, I’ve more or less told you the story of the Bucks-Pacers game Sunday afternoon.  The Bucks played down to the Pacers level, which made for some sloppy basketball and an overall unsatisfying experience.  Coming off three straight thrillers against Cleveland, Boston and Utah, I didn’t expect this one to be high theater, but I was hoping for a crisp game at least.  I shouldn’t be surprised though.  If the Bucks last three opponents are the equivalent to my BW3’s, then Indiana is absolutely my Applebees.

Still, the Bucks got the W and no matter what the game looked like Milwaukee is one step closer to a playoff spot and a fifth seed.  And that sounds about as good as a free meal to me.

Offense

In the first half, the Bucks starters looked like a group that could have used the hour of sleep daylight savings took from them overnight Sunday.  Perhaps they were a little worn out from the load they’ve been carrying the past few games or maybe it just wasn’t’ there day.  Whatever the case was, the group finished the first half with 24 of the Bucks 49 points (8-28 FG 2-4 3FG 6-10 FT).

Fortunately, the Pacers bench is devoid of talent and the Bucks subs were able to carry the load early.  Led by Jerry Stackhouse (11 points in the first half), the Bucks reserves had 25 points in the games opening 24 minutes and kept the Pacers at arms length.  Well, at least until the starters had to come back in to wrap it up with four minutes to go, but let’s not nitpick.  That’s why it’s a team effort.

• Stack kept the good times rolling in the second half and finished with 20 points (7-13 FG 4-6 3FG 2-2 FT).  One thing you’ll notice when Stack is on the court is how quick the Bucks are passing the ball and how little dribbling is going on.  Even if he’s occasionally forcing or air mailing a pass, Stack isn’t bogging anything down and he’s making good reads more often than not.

• The bench didn’t start and stop with Stack though.  Luke Ridnour snapped out of a mini-slump and rediscovered the pull-up jumper he’d been missing lately.  Ridnour finished with 13 points (5-8 FG 1-1 3FG 2-3 FT) and kept the offense running smoothly while Brandon Jennings was out – something he’d been struggling with lately.

Defense

The book on the Pacers seems fairly simple: make sure they don’t catch fire from outside and try not to let Danny Granger score 50.  Well, the Pacers shot 33% from outside, 37.5% total and Granger finished with 29 points.  So how did the Pacers almost win this one?  Try a 33-36 effort from the free-throw line.  The last time the Bucks allowed over 35 free throws?  A 112-110 win over Indiana on February 25^th.

Coach Scott Skiles mentioned after the game that the Bucks have yet to play a good game against the Pacers, and the numbers don’t lie.  While Milwaukee’s defense wasn’t exactly non-existent (they still held the Pacers under 40% shooting) the rotations weren’t as sharp as they had been the last few games.  Against Indiana that can still get a team a win, but that won’t fly against most of the NBA.

• I couldn’t help but chuckle in the fourth quarter when Dahntay Jones found himself with the ball on the perimeter one on one with Kurt Thomas (Thomas pitched in on offense too by the way, with seven points and nine rebounds). I mean, that screams mismatch, right?  Jones is in the league because he’s a freak athlete, so getting by old man Thomas shouldn’t be a problem – at least in theory.  In practice, things were quite different.  Thomas stayed in position, didn’t close out too hard on the shaky shooter Jones and then watched him airmail a pass across the court into the stands.  Thomas has made a career off being a tough guy who’s always in the right positions, tonight was no different.

Final Thoughts

It was an early game, daylight savings made it even earlier and the game reflected the time.  If anything, this game was more of a chance to get the feel for playing afternoon games like they’ll have to do in the playoffs than anything.  Taking that into consideration, this game isn’t much more than a blip on the radar.  It would have been nice to see a Bucks blowout, but everyone was referring to this as a trap game for a reason.  Coach Skiles on the team’s recent play:

Seven or eight days ago if you said we were going to win these four games at home, you know, we’ll take it.  We certainly will take it.

No team feels great about ugly wins, but every team feels great about four game sweeps on home stands.  Sometimes it’s more important to look at the larger picture and this is one of those times.

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“We need multiple guys doing the damage out there.  That’s our formula right now, that’s the way our team is constructed.  We spread the ball around, I say it all the time, they’re unselfish and try and hit the open man and play good team basketball.  When we’re playing well and we’re clicking we are gonna have four or five guys in double figures.”

-         Scott Skiles 2/24/2010

Yes, one night before the Bucks put seven players into double figures, Scott Skiles was singing the praises of his teams unselfishness and insisting that it would take a lot of different scorers for the team to have success.  And he always claims he doesn’t know what’s coming next.

You fooled us all Coach, you fooled us all.

The Bucks got double figure points from seven different players Thursday night.

John Salmons             20

Brandon Jennings      18

Ersan Ilyasova           17

Andrew Bogut            15

Luke Ridnour 12

Jerry Stackhouse       11

Carlos Delfino            10

And they needed every last point to get past the pesky Pacers in the fourth quarter.  After taking control of the game in the second and further exerting their collective wills in the third, the Bucks let things get away from them a little in quarter four.  After grabbing a 14-point lead, two Pacer threes sandwiched around a layup brought Indiana back within six points with four minutes to go.

But the Bucks kept one play ahead of the Pacers.

A Troy Murphy three to close the gap to just three points?  Meet a Jennings jumper.  An Earl Watson tip shot to make it a two point contest?  Meet two free-throws for Salmons.  The Bucks were losing it, without losing it and ultimately stopped before they lost it.  Simple enough?

Offense

It’s obvious whether or not a team is upper echelon in the NBA and the Bucks displayed the qualities that will keep them out of that next level for the foreseeable future on Thursday.  The Bucks had the Pacers on the ropes, down 14 in the fourth quarter.  One more spurt by the Bucks would have put the game away halfway through the quarter and made it an early night.  But the Bucks didn’t quite have it in them.  The Bucks don’t always have that spurtability that really good teams break out when they want to finish off an opponent.  Sometimes the Bucks demonstrate it at home, rarely are they able to bust it out on the road.  That’s just the life of an ever developing team fighting for playoff positioning.  Sometimes they’ll close out the Pacers of the world and sometimes they won’t.  Thursday was a won’t.

• Jennings got Hero Syndrome a little bit at the end of the game, taking an ill-advised floater and long jumper late in the fourth quarter after he hit a big three.  These are things everyone has to deal with for now and hope takes care of themselves later.  I’m working under the impression that some day Jennings will make these shots and we’ll all go home happy more often than not.  As mentioned, Jennings had 18 (6-18 FG 2-4 3FG) and he chipped in seven assists with just two turnovers.

• This is the game I expected from John Salmons more often than not.  Okay shooting numbers (5-12 FG 1-3 3FG) and terrific free-throw numbers (9-10 FT).  Salmons attacking led to those crucial free-throws in the fourth quarter and his constant jab stepping made for many other entertaining moments in the rest of the game.  Kudos John.

• And last, but certainly not least was the motivated Ilyasova having his best game in a few.  Widely rumored to be the apple of Indiana’s eye in a Troy Murphy deal, the Bucks power forward dropped in 17 points (7-9 FG) and played his usual pesky style, despite often being matched up with the behemoth Roy Hibbert. Ilyasova’s jumper was looking as silky as ever and his focus was unquestionably there.

Defense

The Bucks went with Bogut on Murphy more often than not as the Pacers went small most of the game.  This worked as well as the Pacers could have imagined, as Bogut had to sprint out at Murphy on the perimeter a number of times and Murphy finished 4-7 on threes.  The downside for the Pacers was that Murphy was only able to grab three rebounds and the Bucks controlled the glass 44-36.

• I was worried about Danny Granger going off, but he seemed less insistent on shooting than I would have figured.  When he was going to the hoop or making plays it was clear he was better than all of his teammates, it just seemed like he wasn’t forcing the issue very often.  If he eventually gets more help that trait will serve him well in the future.  Granger had 21, but wasn’t overwhelming (7-15 FG 7-8 FT).

Final Thoughts

Another game another win, making five in a row total and five in a row on the road for the Bucks.  This one wasn’t as pretty as the few that preceded it, but when it’s all said and done, style points aren’t awarded to NBA teams.  It would have been a classic Buck maneuver to overlook the Pacers in anticipation for a big game with the Heat coming up on Saturday, but there was juuuust enough focus in the fourth to finish them out.

With a day off before Saturday’s oddly timed 2:30 game, the Bucks have a chance to rest up before they try and put a little breathing room between themselves and Miami.

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at

Indiana Pacers (Jim O’Brien) 19-38

Larry Legend has been Lotto Larry for a few years in Indy now.

Date: 2/25/2010

Time: 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Earl Watson

Jennings numbers continue to look pedestrian, but his impact is evident in the success his teammates are having.  Five Bucks scored in double figures Wednesday night and three more scored nine points.  If a team doesn’t have a good point guard, it’s difficult to get that kind of even distribution, even in a blowout.  Jennings always keeps the offense running smooth and didn’t record a turnover against New Orleans.  Jennings’ usage is at 26, his assist rate is right around 30 while his turnover rate is only 12.6.  Let me take Deron Williams as an example of where Jennings is having success.  Williams’ numbers in those categories are as follows, 23.6, 42.7 and 17.2.  If just a few more times nightly, Jennings were to hit an open shooter leading to a successful three-point shot, Jennings could conceivably close in on the first two numbers while keeping his turnover number down.  He’s not all that far off from Williams and if he used a few less possessions statistically, as a point guard he’d be in the class directly below Williams.  That doesn’t say anything about his offensive struggles with shooting, which would bring his overall game down a little further.  Bottom line, Jennings has been a VERY good point guard.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Brandon Rush

The last time these teams played I was less than excited about the Charlie Bell/Brandon Rush standoff at the two.  Now?  I’m excited that the Bucks have a clear edge at the shooting guard and should be able to benefit here.  It’s all about attacking the other team where they are weak or have a disadvantage, and the Bucks are going to have an edge at the two.  Salmons has the size to keep Rush from getting anything easy too, which is always nice.  “When John came into the league, he came in primarily as a defender,” said Coach Skiles before Wednesday’s game.  “His shooting and offense have come along as his career has come along.  He knows he’s playing for a team that right now, defense is a priority.  So far so good, he’s embraced that and played very well at that end.  He does have size that we didn’t have.”

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Danny Granger

Earlier in the season Delfino had to take on a bigger role than he may have been accustomed to with the Bucks short handed on wing talent.  Now?  Delfino can be a supporting guy, contributing a little bit each night and playing to his strengths.  It’s a role that seems to have been a good fit, especially defensively where Delfino can focus more of his efforts.  Delfino blocked three shots against the Hornets, but he’s averaged nearly two steals a game in the month of February.  He’ll need all the defense he can muster up against Granger.  If Granger gets going, the Pacers can compete, as evidenced by their 10 point win in Houston five days ago.  Granger had 36 in that one and is head and shoulders more talented than the rest of his teammates.

Advantage: Pacers

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Troy Murphy

So the Bucks have gotten along fine without getting Murphy, huh?  Murphy isn’t a bad match-up for LRMAM and is certainly less imposing than the burly David West was Wednesday.  Murphy is a traditionally much stronger rebounder than West though, so LRMAM may have problems getting to the glass with the ease he did against the Hornets.  It won’t be quite as easy to slither by the aggressive reboudning Murphy.

Advantage: Pacers

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Roy Hibbert

Bogut’s February numbers: 17.3/11.3/2.8.  Not that he’s an all-star or anything like that.  Redundancy alert.  Anyway, Bogut has had some struggles in back-to-back’s (14.5/9.7/2.4) but he’s averaging 26 points-per-game against the Pacers this year, so something has to give.  He was able to take the fourth quarter off in Wednesday’s game, so the extra rest may get him on track to take heed of his many advantages over Hibbert or as I like to call him, “The Black Aaron Gray.”

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jerry Stackhouse, Kurt Thomas, Luke Ridnour and Ersan Ilyasova

vs.

T.J. Ford, Dahntay Jones, Solomon Jones and Luther Head

Solomon Jones or Josh McRoberts? That’s who Jim O’Brien will be looking to if Roy Hibbert has early foul trouble or just no chance against Andrew Bogut.  Do I need to keep going?

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 99 – Pacers 85

Remember when people were picking the Pacers to finish higher than the Bucks this year?  Good times.  This is the soft spot in Milwaukee’s three-game road stretch this weekend, so the Bucks need to jump on the Pacers early and keep them from getting into it.  Granger is the type of player that has long troubled the Bucks and still could to this day.  Stephen Jackson just lit up Milwaukee for 35 and he is a similar player to Granger.  The Pacers’ small forward will be the focus of the Bucks defense all night and as long as Bogut has it going and the Bucks aren’t being careless, they should win going away.

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Inactives: Michael Redd, Francisco Elson and Joe Alexander

Vs.

Indiana Pacers (Jim O’Brien) 18-32

Inactives:Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster and Earl Watson

Date: 2/6/2010

Time: 7:30

TV: Nah

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. A.J. Price

The rookie matchup to end all rookie matchups, JENNINGS V. PRICE.  Okay, so not really.  Price’s rise from late second round pick to starting point guard on a bad Eastern Conference team hasn’t been a popular story, but is intriguing nonetheless.  With Earl Watson out after a death in the family, Price got his first start on Friday against the Pistons.  Price can hit an open three, but often won’t burn anyone from deep, he’s a fairly consistent 33 percent shooter from deep.  He probably won’t see more than 25 minutes or so, as T.J. Ford has come back with a vengeance or something like that.  After being banished to the bench for some time, Ford got some minutes on Friday and made the most of his time hitting five of seven shots and dropping five assists.  Either way, Jennings shouldn’t have his hands full with them on either end.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Brandon Rush

Don’t expect a lot of fireworks out of this matchup, as both Bell and Rush fill the role of defensive player who can shoot a three if left open.  Neither creates much and both shoot fewer than two shots a game at the rim, both hitting roughly half of them.  Alas, the three-point shot is a valuable weapon, so two unassuming, typically not-so-crucial players like Bell and Rush could prove important when this is all said and done.  And of course, Rush has a nice size advantage over Bell, so he could slide over and guard Carlos Delfino or anyone else if need be.

Advantage: Pacers

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Danny Granger

Granger is the best player on the Pacers and that cannot be questioned.  What CAN be questioned is whether or not he’s good enough to be the best player on a team that actually matters.  Bucks fans can relate to this by replacing the name Danny Granger with the name Michael Redd.  Like Redd once did, Granger has improved his scoring average each year he’s been in the league and like Redd, Granger has shot threes very well in the early part of his career.  And like Redd, Granger hasn’t played on any teams that have been very good since he’s taken on a more active role.  Granger has shown signs of slippage lately though; he averaged only 20 points a night in January and shot less than 40 percent for the month.  Fortunately for Granger, the Bucks have often been the cure for woes that ale athletic swing men. What bodes well for the Bucks though, is that the Pacers have no one else that Luc Richard Mbah a Moute need be very worried about, so he may end up with extended minutes on Granger.

Advantage: Pacers

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Troy Murphy

Troy Murphy – A Chart

Stop him from shooting the three up top and you will be successful.

Advantage: Pacers

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Roy Hibbert

I haven’t heard anything that would indicate that Bogut won’t be playing Saturday, so I’ll operate under the assumption that the migraine has subsided and hope he’ll give it a go.  I’m sure if he’s anywhere near ready, Bogut will find a way to get on the court to tangle with the Pacers again.  His first ever 30-point game came earlier this season courtesy of the Pacers and Hibbert.  Hibbert is no match for Bogut, as he has nowhere near the necessary quickness to stick with Bogut off the face up game.  Hibbert has some length, but once Bogut gets it going he’s been able lately to score on pretty much anyone.  It may actually work in Bogues favor that he missed most of Friday’s game, as he won’t be doing a back-to-back and should have fresh legs to throw at Hibbert and the Pacers.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas, Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova and Jerry Stackhouse

Vs.

T.J. Ford, Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Dahntay Jones

The Pacers actually have a decent looking bench until you get four or five into it.  After those three things fall off considerably.  This is saying a lot when we’re talking about a fall from the likes of Dahntay Jones.  The Bucks bench stepped up again against the Knicks and will have another big advantage against the Pacers.  Depth and many contributors have been hallmarks of Bucks wins and it could be the case again.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 104 – Pacers 89

On the road in the second game of a back-to-back against a team coming home off their first successful road trip of the year; that doesn’t sound good for the Pacers.  Toss in a rested Andrew Bogut and a confident Brandon Jennings on the evening of his own bobblehead and things get worse for Indy.  The overall talent comparison indicates that the Pacers aren’t as far off from the Bucks as I suspected in positional matchups, but when the Bucks have advantages they are very significant.  The Bucks would be wise to really attempt to expose the Bogut and Jennings matchups to their fullest.

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So the 0-7 finish the Bucks had at the free throw line Monday night was properly particularly devastating for their coach to watch.

And it’s unfortunate that the once again unacceptable free throw shooting takes away from the positives that this game brought.  Andrew Bogut had the best game of his career, dominating Roy Hibbert and everyone else the Pacers threw at him en route to 31 points and 18 rebounds.  And Bogut was able to cede control of the ending to Brandon Jennings, who had another frigid looking shooting night at 7-19, but hit a three and fall-away jumper in the last two minutes that helped give the Bucks just enough breathing room.

And that’s how everyone envisions the Bucks being successful, ride Andrew Bogut relentlessly all game and then let Jennings handle the ball and make plays in the fourth quarter, it’s the perfect big man/little man set up.  And for one night the Bucks had it going.

And still, Milwaukee almost blew the game.

Sigh.

Offense

• I feel like I’m constantly getting a never ending stream of text messages about how bad Michael Redd is at this point, but if you look at his final line and changed his name to something else, he doesn’t stand out as being bad at all.  Rather, his plus eight looks fairly nice.  Don’t let it fool you into thinking it was all roses and rainbows for Redd on Monday though, he still takes DIFFICULT shots and apparently is incapable of shooting a free throw.  On Twitter, mAndersonMN suggested that it may be do to his recent knee problems, that he’s not getting the necessary knee bend into the shot and inevitably coming up short.  A good theory and something I’ll try and delve into further when the Bucks return home Wednesday.  One thing I’ve noticed Redd doing that I do like, has been his recent interest in aggressive defense.  He’s had a few steals this year where he gambles a little, but pokes it free off another man; he did it to Kobe and now Troy Murphy Monday.

• Rotation roulette continues.  Charlie Bell sat for the entire first half, entered the game two minutes into the third quarter and stayed in the rest of the game.  With good reason too.  In Bell’s ten third quarter minutes, he was 2-2 from behind the arc, scored six points and the Bucks outscored Indiana by eight.  In the fourth, Bell had a steal and a block but was apart of the parade of questionable free throw misses in the last minute.  Bell’s first half minutes went to Jodie Meeks who remains mysteriously incapable of connecting on open three’s.  Even if Meeks is flying around making plays, grabbing rebounds and playing exceptional defense it will never make up for it when he’s not making three’s.  His position requires the making of open three-point shots.  The Bucks entire offense relies on that position hitting those shots, so if they aren’t going in it doesn’t really matter what else he’s doing.

• Bogut was aggressive and hitting early, so it looked like he was on track to have a good night, but rarely do we get to see the Australian hit for 30.  Rarely as in we’ve never seen that before.  Congratulations to Bogut on his career high 31 points and extra congratulations on getting 18 rebounds to go along.  That kind of aggressiveness and commitment from the rest of the Bucks on getting the ball to Bogut down low will go a long way towards getting the Bucks some more wins in the future.  Bogut’s game relies largely on touch and feel rather than his force of nature, so it’s not easy for him to shoot 14-19 like it may be for a Dwight Howard, so when he has it going it’s important it’s recognized and capitalized on.

Defense

• So Michael Redd’s return to the starting line-up meant Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s return to the bench.  I know Skiles is thinking that LRMAM’s versatility is valuable off the bench and allows for more flexibility, as he can come in for Ersan, Redd or Carlos Delfino but it’s still hard to believe he hasn’t earned a starting spot and 30 minutes of tick (playing time) a night.  He’s the team’s best defender and finished yesterday with a plus 14.  Mike Dunleavy struggled out of the blocks Monday, but when LRMAM came in he didn’t do the Pacers best offensive option any favors.

• While the Bucks absolutely should have been up more than three as the game wound down, the plus side was their defense as the clocked ticked away.  They did give up an offensive rebound to Tyler Hansbrough, who proceeded to punch Andrew Bogut in the stomach and dunk, but whenever a team can force T.J. Ford into two crucial three-point attempts with the game winding down, that’s something worth feeling good about.

Final Thoughts

This is a double rarity: a Milwaukee road win, in a three point game nonetheless.  While it’s fun to say the Bucks showed character or “figured out” how to win a close one for once, it really was just a matter of the ball bouncing their ways more than it did not for once.  If Ford hits one of those miraculous three’s, and the way things have gone the last three games I’m surprised he didn’t, who knows what happens.  But, for all the ugliness that was the Bucks finish in this one, the two facts in the previous sentence still stand out.  After three straight tough losses that left everyone questioning where things stood for the Bucks, this is at least a momentary bright spot.

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(Likely) Inactives: Dan Gadzuric, Joe Alexander and Roko Ukic

at

Indiana Pacers (Jim O’Brien) 9-16

(Likely) Inactives: Travis Diener, Jeff Foster and Danny Granger

Date: 12/21/2009

Time: 6:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. T.J. Ford

I get that Brandon Jennings can occasionally frustrate Bucks fans.  He’s struggled recently and sometimes puts up a lot of shots.  In the box scores it’s not always so pretty.  So the next time you find yourself complaining about something Brandon Jennings has done, mosey on over to Basketball-Reference.com and look at T.J. Ford’s page.  T.J. Ford is 1-25 on three’s.  His assist percentage is lower and turnover percentage is higher than Jennings’.  And this is just who Ford is as a player.  He isn’t likely getting any better, we now can feel comfortable expecting this out of him.  Ford is one of many great examples of players Brandon Jennings is better than, despite being significantly younger.  So next time you’re in panic mode, just go check him out and realize the Bucks could be in worse shape.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Carlos Delfino vs. Dahntay Jones

Jones is one of many players tough to examine on paper.  His numbers don’t jump off the page as impressive, aside from a large number of free throw attempts for a guy who I never remember as being good offensively, but he’s always referred to as a good defender.  It’s the LRMAM Conundrum.  The thing about the Bucks is that they don’t really have a wing player who requires much stopping, so doesn’t that leave Jones in kind of an awkward spot defensively?  Regardless, I’d expect him to make a few trips to the line, turn the ball over three times and not be a major factor either way.  Alas, he’s still better than Delfino.  Sigh.

Advantage: Pacers

Small Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Mike Dunleavy

Dunleavy was sidetracked by injuries last season and at the start of this one, and since returning this year has recaptured the shooting form that made him a good offensive player two years ago.  While his assists and rebounds are down, the Pacers seem a much better team offensively with him on the floor than without.  And while he’s not a standout defensive player, he’s not horrendous either, thanks to an above average ability to draw charges.  Dunleavy’s height gives him an advantage over lots of wing players, but it won’t help much against LRMAM.  As someone who’s been effective but is still getting his legs back, look for LRMAM to be aggressive defensively and cause problems for Dunleavy.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Troy Murphy

From nearly all accounts, Murphy is terrific at shooting and rebounding.  So it’s tempting to say he’s similar to Ilyasova.  But he’s not.  Murphy is really bad at playing defense and is nowhere near the general pest that Ersan is.  Ersan will get to balls and save possessions that he has no business saving.  He’s constant energy, even if that does lead to a few questionable step-back three’s.  But he’ll have to be sure to refrain from veering too far away from Murphy at the top of the key in this one: 23 of his 32 three-point makes have come from up top.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Roy Hibbert

Check this quote out from EightPointsNineSeconds.com (TrueHoop Network’s Indiana Pacers Blog):

“It will be interesting to see if Roy can string together back-to-back good games — something he hasn’t done in over a month.”

And we thought Andrew Bogut was inconsistent.  This should be a good opportunity for Bogut to bounce back after a tough shooting night against the Kings.  While he’s a mountain of a man, Hibbert isn’t very athletic, as evidenced by his poor rebounding rate for a seven-footer.  Bogut could do significant damage in the face up game, even if Hibbert is able to give him problems on the running hook shots.  Hibbert is shooting 50 percent and is a good free throw shooter for a center, but simply doesn’t get many looks: only eight shots a game.  Can anyone explain to me why Dahntay Jones is getting over 13 shots a night while Hibbert is limited to eight?  Is Hibbert just that unaggressive?  Wild.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Michael Redd, Charlie Bell, Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Jodie Meeks and Kurt Thomas

vs.

Earl Watson, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush and Luther Head

It’s nearly impossible to know whose number will get called for the Bucks these days off the bench.  It seems like coach Scott Skiles has decided to put guys in, see if they’re playing well and stick with whoever has the best start.  In theory, that’s how it should all be decided, but in practice, it’s a little strange.  How can anyone feel comfortable knowing that if they don’t immediately produce they could be limited to five second half minutes?  The rotation will probably figure itself out in time, but for the time being, it’s more than a bit jumbled.  The talent for a good bench is still there for the Bucks though, something I’ not sure I can say about Indiana.  Remember when everyone wasn’t sure that Hansbrough could do much in the NBA due to his suspect athleticism, but then we all were wowed by his numbers and figured he “just knew how to play”.  Well our first suspicions may have been correct.  He ranks ninth in the league in percentage of shots blocked (12 percent) and is shooting just 51 percent at the rim.  And that number dramatically falls as he moves outside of the immediate rim area.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 108 – Pacers 104

I can understand if you’re a frustrated Bucks fan right now.  Three straight tough losses, two against top five teams and seemingly one problem after the next cropping up in every game.

But at least the Bucks aren’t the Pacers.

The Pacers sit where the Bucks sat in 2006.  They have one star, who isn’t quite good enough to really be a star.  Don’t get me wrong, Danny Granger is pretty good, but he’s hardly much better than Michael Redd was in his formative years.  After Granger?  Just a bunch of guys.  On a given night the Pacers could get hot and beat some teams, but what are they building towards?  Who are their prospects that could take a leap and get them contending?  Roy Hibbert is probably as good a prospect as they have, and he moves about as well as buildings do.  I just see no one as a potential future building block on Indiana.

Meanwhile, the Bucks have Jennings.  Is he a legit star?  Not yet, but he did have that one bright shining moment.  It was a possible view into the future, something to let us know, “hey, I could get there one day.”  And while we’ve watched Jennings deal with more downs than ups in recent weeks, we as Bucks fans can still look back and be excited about looking forward.  That’s more than the fans of the Pacers can say.

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