Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 2-2

at

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-2

Date: 4/28/2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: TNT/FS Wisconsin

“Most teams, the role players play better at home.”
-  Jerry Stackhouse after game four

So Stack already has me a little concerned for game five. After notably strong efforts out of Dan Gadzuric, Carlos Delfino and Kurt Thomas in their game tying win on Monday, Milwaukee will need to once again get more out of their role players than Atlanta. That’s true of any team, everyone likes to get more out of their secondary players, but it’s especially true for a team like Milwaukee that’s featuring their role players much more heavily. One could argue that Atlanta has only three or four role players they’ll trot out there (Jamal Crawford, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams and if you want to label him as a role player, Al Horford), but Milwaukee has two main men in Brandon Jennings and John Salmons, flanked by role players. What’s nice about this is that it’s difficult to project which one will step up. What’s bad about this, is that it’s not always the case that anyone steps up. It’s tough to expect Carlos Delfino to hit another six threes, but if he can hit half of his threes and Ersan Ilyasova has another strong game, Milwaukee may not need much more than strong performances again out of Jennings and Salmons to pull this one out. Read more…

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 1-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-1

Date: 4/26/2010
Time: 7:30
TV: NBA TV & FS Wisconsin

Keep Smith Contained

Milwaukee and Josh Smith combined to do a great job stopping Josh Smith in game two. As much as I’d love to slather all the credit on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, I’ll admit that it seems like Smith just didn’t have the same lift he’d had in the previous few games. Specifically on the offensive glass and in transition, he wasn’t the same. Smith had five dunks and layups in transition and on the offensive glass in game two. Saturday at the Bradley Center, Smith was 1-6 combined in transition and after offensive rebounds. Some of this was good help defense after he grabbed boards, some of this was luck. For the game, Smith was 2-10 at the rim. Don’t expect another performance like that. Milwaukee will just have to make the Hawks top athlete work hard for everything he gets and keep a body on him at all times. Making his life difficult should be the Bucks focus once again.

10 3’s Again?

Okay, so Milwaukee had enough breathing room, they didn’t need all 10 of the threes they hit Saturday. But three point shooting will still more or less define the Bucks for however long this season goes on. Saturday didn’t appear to be much of an aberration either. No Bucks player hit more than three from distance and no one shot over 50% on their three point shots. If anything, the Bucks could expect Carlos Delfino to perform slightly better than he has been lately. Milwaukee’s game is all about moving the ball and finding open shooters and their seven assists on 10 three point shots indicates they did that very well on Saturday. Maybe Milwaukee won’t hit another 10 threes Monday night, but there is some reason to expect another strong performance again on Monday night and not the disastrous ones that were games one and two.

More (or just as much) Gadz

I vividly recall thinking Terry Porter’s biggest mistake in 2004 was not giving Dan Gadzuric virtually any burn in the Bucks first round series against a much larger Detroit Pistons squad. This was back when Gadz was still young and before he got “The Contract”, so everyone loved him and he seemed to have a bright future. I called for him over and over, but he logged just nine minutes in the Bucks 4-1 losing effort of a series. Predictably, as I look back, I see that in those nine minutes his PER was 24.6 and he had the teams’ second best defensive rating.

Now, all these years later, I’m still finding myself wanting Gadz on the court in the post season. Sure, it has a lot to do with Andrew Bogut being out and Kurt Thomas being most productive in limited minutes, but it’s strange how some things stay the same. Gadzuric was a terror in his 17 minutes Saturday night, racking up five fouls and 10 rebounds in classic Gazuric style. He had an absurd 33.2 rebound rate, meaning he grabbed roughly a third of available rebounds while he was on the court. If he plays to his strength, rebounding and running around like a mad man, he can impact this series in a positive way.

Brandon Jennings Early and Often

Jennings started things out with a bang on Saturday, then had plenty of time to rest in the fourth quarter. I can’t see Atlanta coming out with the same lackluster effort that allowed Milwaukee free reign on Saturday, so he’ll likely log more minutes and more meaningful ones Monday night. When Jennings gets the Bucks going they seem to play loads better. If he’s feeling it on Monday night, he should absolutely not be shy about getting his shot off whenever he pleases. Sometimes when he’s feeling it, it seems like he backs off to get other guys involved. I guess that’s the instincts of a guy who’s a classic point guard, but sometimes Milwaukee needs him to take over like he did in game one. I have a lot more confidence in Jennings than I do in a lot of other players on this team

Keep Dodging The Crawford Bullet

The likely sixth man of the year, Jamal Crawford has made a season of blowing up off the bench for the Hawks. This series he’s 11-34 and has served as more of a thorn in the side of Atlanta than Milwaukee. But, this is Jamal Crawford we’re talking about. He’s liable to go off for 30 at any given time. In game one he did some typical Jamal Crawford stuff, pulling up for crazy threes and drilling them to take the air out of the Bucks sails when a potential comeback was on the horizon. Milwaukee will need to keep doing whatever they’ve been doing against Crawford and hope his tough shots keep out of the net.

Hawk watching has not been a big part of my life this basketball season.  Obviously my hands are a little bit tied with the Bucks playing as frequently as they are.  Fortunately, the TrueHoop Network has got me covered.  The Atlanta Hawks have a terrific blogger by the name of Bret Lagree.  He and I took the time to exchange emails about the upcoming Bucks-Hawks series.  I took a stab at some Hawks things, Bret gave his take on the Bucks and will filled in the gaps where the other wasn’t sure  It’s worth a look.  Part one is here at Bucksketball and be sure to check out part two at Hoopinion.

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Bucksketball: So what’s with Joe Johnson covering Brandon Jennings? Does he frequently guard point guards? I was discussing this with someone at the last game, and with Chris Paul being out this season, I’d argue Johnson is probably the second best defensive point guard the Bucks have had the displeasure of seeing this season.

And why is Al Horford forcing Milwaukee point guards to shoot jump shots? He doesn’t get much national recognition, but he seems like a very good defender.

Hoopinion: Joe’s guarded point guards a lot. Not because he’s especially effective (though he does the best he can to use his length to make up for a relative lack of foot speed) but because the Hawks have used Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson and Mike Bibby at point guard alongside him. Backcourt defense is a big issue with this team, to the point that people were reasonably concerned that letting Flip Murray walk would hurt the defense. It hasn’t really (they’re still mediocre defensively), but that’s more to do with Josh Smith being healthy than with Bibby or Jamal Crawford even approaching competence.

In all seriousness, Horford might be the Hawks’ best perimeter defender. He moves his feet really well (this is why he commits so few fouls both in space and in the post) and understands that it’s far better to give up the 18-footer to guards than let them get past him. The downside to this (and the switching defense the Hawks use almost exclusively) is that, while Horford’s doing an admirably job on the perimeter against smaller, quicker players, Bibby or Crawford is forced to try and box out a bigger player once the shot goes up. The inversion of the defenders is the primary reason the Hawks are 24th in the league in DR%.

I think the Hawks would be fine with letting Bibby guard Jennings given Brandon’s struggles inside the arc this year and given the presence of Smith and Horford to complicate matters for him.

Let’s make that my first question for you. What’s up with Jennings making such a low percentage of his two-point attempts? 42.8% at the rim and 41.3% inside 10 feet (per Hoopdata and before last night’s game). Poor shot selection or poor finishing or both?

Bucksketball:  Johnson’s length has certainly been an issue for Jennings, who, as you’ve noted, has enough issues of his own.

Speaking as someone who’s seen nearly every game Jennings has played in this season, the best way I can explain his struggles inside is like this: he’s not very good in there (yet).

Sometimes it seems like Jennings is forcing the issue to get inside, maybe he’s reacting to everyone telling him to be more aggressive or maybe he gets tired of missing midrange jumpers, I don’t know. But he’s often driving and trying to get up shots against significantly larger defenders inside and he just doesn’t quite know how to react to them yet. It’s not so much that he’s always getting blocked, it’s just that he’s getting altered frequently. His floater comes and goes throughout games, it’s not consistent. For a consistent floater, I’d direct him (or anyone else) to Luke Ridnour. Ridnour’s got all kinds of floaters and runners that he has been hitting all year.

It’s funny that defense has been such an issue for Atlanta, because you’d never know it from their games against Milwaukee. They’ve been forcing the Bucks to live and die by the jumper, which is often a safe bet for the opposition.

I’m as curious about Jamal Crawford as you are about Jennings though. He’s supposed to be a clutch dynamo. The numbers don’t agree. Is he secretly making Hawks fans pull their hair out more than we know?

Hoopinion: Crawford’s the same player he’s always been. The reason he’s had such a useful season is context. His typical volume of devastating crossovers used only to create space to attempt 20-foot jump shots hasn’t really declined but, playing with good players, he’s been able to augment that with open shots his teammates create for him, especially corner threes that begin with Josh Smith or Joe Johnson drawing a double-team or screen-and-roll with Al Horford.

Since I believe that Kurt Thomas can guard Horford in the post without help and that Thomas is nowhere near as mobile as Bogut, I’d love to see the Hawks run lots of Crawford/Horford screen-and-roll. Do you think that’s a recipe for success for the Hawks?

The underpinning of Atlanta switching every screen is to keep opponents in front of them (as a team) that the individual defenders couldn’t be expected to keep in front of them. This is largely why the Hawks and Heat rarely play a competitive game though neither team dominates the series. If the Hawks just keep the Heat in front of them, Miami’s forced to take shots they would prefer to pass up and the Hawks romp. On the other hand, some night Daequan Cook might make 11 jump shots and the Hawks lack a Plan B defensively and can’t compete with Miami.

I’ve been impressed with Jennings defense on the ball but thought he didn’t pay nearly enough attention to Mike Bibby when Bibby didn’t have the ball Monday night. Agree or disagree? And, if you do agree, is that a weakness typical to his game?

I’d also like to hear your thoughts regarding how Skiles will use Mbah a Moute. I’m a huge admirer of his. I think he can trouble both Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, though, obviously, not at the same time. Who do you think he’ll spend more time matched up against?

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Part two at Hoopinion.

My gut instinct tells me it’s the Hawks.

Joe Johnson is a star, right?  Stars win games late, that’s just how the NBA goes.  That’s what I’ve long assumed, that’s what I feel like I’ve witnessed time and time again.  Johnson must be the best late game player either team has, simply because he’s the best player in this series.

But do the numbers confirm that?  Thanks to the Clutch Stats feature at 82games.com, I was able to run some numbers to determine which players are most likely to get the ball down the stretch for each of these two teams in close games.  The numbers paint an interesting picture when determining which players should be trusted most down in close games this series and who should be giving the ball up at all costs.

	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	PCT of FGA Jumpers	eFG% Jumpers	PCT of FGA Inside	eFG% Inside
Atlanta Hawks
Joe Johnson	0.468	100	91.9	33	86	49.4	14	61.5
Jamal Crawford	0.245	58	86.2	29	81	22.1	19	50
Josh Smith	0.419	53	70	20	42	22.2	58	56
Mike Bibby	0.276	29	0	0	100%	37.6	0	0
Milwaukee Bucks
Brandon Jennings	0.369	110	91.3	46	78	48.1	22	30.4
John Salmons	0.385	43	90.9	22	72	55.4	28	27.3
Luke Ridnour	0.462	41	83.3	18	82	39.1	18	85.7
Ersan Ilyasova	0.500	37	68.8	16	63	55.0	37	58.3

• The numbers would indicate that the more Jamal Crawford shoots down the stretch in tight games, the better Bucks fans should feel.  I know Crawford has hit a few buzzer beaters this year, but I wonder how many he missed before hitting those?  It seems likely from looking at the numbers that the Hawks only needed game winners in those games because they hadn’t been making any shots before them. Crawford’s 24.5 FG% in the last five minutes of close games is down right awful.  Please, take all the shots you see fit Crawford. At the last couple Hawks-Bucks games, a local media member always wondered if this would be the game Crawford would shoot the Hawks out of or in to. He shot them out of the first game in Milwaukee and didn’t play in game two.  One can only hope, for the Bucks sake, that Crawford keeps shooting them out.

• John Salmons has the most bizarre split of any player in this series.  Salmons has been a sensational jump shooter down the homestretch of games. His eFG% on jumpers of 55.4 is even better than Joe Johnson’s.  But what’s going on once Salmons gets inside? Inside, Salmons numbers fall to 27.3 or Brandon Jennings type numbers (even Jennings is better!).  Considering Salmons is the one player on the Bucks that generally has the easiest time getting to the hoop, they’ll need him to improve on that figure drastically if they want to do more than just hang around in close games.

• Ersan Ilyasova has a pretty bad reputation as a lousy clutch player and it’s occasionally deserved.  But I think it’s based more on his early season adventures (remember that first Bulls game … I do) rather than his whole body of production.  The numbers indicate that Ilyasova has actually been pretty good in close games, even if his free throw shooting hasn’t been spectacular.

• Ahh, free throw shooting.  The one area where the Bucks really shine.  With Jennings and Salmons both over 90% late in games, if the Bucks do have a lead late, they can feel pretty good about protecting it if the game comes down to fouling.

So how does the star Joe Johnson fare?  His work is the most balanced and his sample size is pretty good.  I don’t want to over simplify, but the Hawks can probably feel pretty good about things whenever the ball is in his hands late in games.  Frequently overlooked as he may be, Johnson certainly is a star in this league and he’s very likely to show why throughout this series.

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 38-30

Vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 45-24

Date: 3/22/10

Time: 7:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Mike Bibby

Two guys heading opposite ways.  Bibby was the table setter and clutch leader for the Kings in their heyday and helped get the Hawks over the hump when they were without a point guard for so many years.  But father time appears to have caught up with the former Arizona great.  Jamal Crawford has more or less usurped him as the fifth Hawk and Joe Johnson handles the play-making role often.  But Bibby still cannot be left alone when he’s out there; he’s shooting .535 from three in the month of March and nearly 40% on the season.  Jennings is shooting a respectable .412 from the field in March and a spectacular .490 from three after nearly everyone had written him off as relevant.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…