I’ve been told I’m turning into a negative person.

My gut reaction is to feel bad about the Bucks one point heartbreaker of a loss.  I want to complain about the tough shots Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry hit on a regular basis, as I wonder why the Bucks can’t seem to ever find guys to hit those same shots.  I want to question the decision making of the Bucks rookie point guard down the stretch and rue the coaching staff for not letting the better shooter handle the ball when it was clear shots would need to be made.  I want to be a little bitter about the whole experience and that’s what a negative person would do.

Yet I find myself incapable of performing in that role.  I just feel too good about the whole thing to let any negativity interfere.  Sure, some things could have been done better and the Bucks could have come out with a win.  But when Milwaukee can head out on the road into the Western Conference and play a division leader to a virtual standstill it’s hard for me to feel very empty.

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) Bogut's play may or may not have been inspiried by the Rum Rebellion on this Australia Day

The Bucks gave Dallas their very best shot – literally.  The 53.3 percent Milwaukee shot in this one was as good a performance as they’ve had on the road all year.  A lot of that had to do with Andrew Bogut’s all-starish 13-14 (6-8 from the stripe) for a career high 32 point performance.

Bogut was matching the superstar Dirk shot for shot in the fourth quarter.  So what was it that allowed the Mavericks to prevail if Bogut was a pseudo-superstar in this one?  Well when the Bucks would have to send double teams over at Dirk, he was able to kick out to guards that combined to shoot 10-16 on threes.  Bogut was skipping it around to guards that finished the night 4-11 on their own three-point shots.  Having a superstar is one thing; having everyone else step up to the plate to make their shots is another.

Offense

While the guards didn’t have it going (Brandon Jennings: 5-16, Charlie Bell: 1-4, Luke Ridnour: 4-11 and Jerry Stackhouse: 3-6) Carlos Delfino continued his habitually stellar play.  Delfino finished 8-12 from the field and connected on 4-5 threes including a monster 31-foot three with the shot-clock winding down and the Bucks down four.  Hitting that shot allowed the Bucks to be choosey with how they’d defend the Mavs final offensive possession, as anything other than a three-point play would allow the Bucks a chance to at least tie and send it in to overtime (more on this later).

• I really can’t say enough about Bogut’s offensive prowess Tuesday night.  Sometimes I think he has his full array of moves on display and then I see a night like tonight where he REALLY has his fully array out for everyone to see.  He scored in so many different ways on the burly, solid defending Erick Dampier that Damp probably will be trying to block shots in his sleep tonight.  Bogut’s play alone prevents me from being able to get too down on this loss.

• Brandon Jennings came out hot, hitting his first three shots and four of his first five, but that wouldn’t last.  He struggled to get many good looks the rest of the game and when he did have them he couldn’t convert.  I know he’s the future and I’m more than willing to live through his ups and downs, but in a road game that appeared eminently winnable, I would have really loved to see Luke Ridnour handling the ball and working the pick and rolls with Bogut near the end.  Jennings took two questionable shots with less than three minutes to go; one was taking on multiple Mavs defenders in an attack at the rim with no other Bucks around, and may have been better served off the ball.  I know he can look back at this and try to learn something, so it’s hard to balance teaching, growing and winning and I do not envy Scott Skiles for having to make those decisions.  That being said, if the Bucks really wanted to win this one, Ridnour may have been a better two-man game partner for Bogut, as he has a much more reliable mid-range jumper if he’s left alone like Jennings frequently was.

• Stackhouse keeps knocking the rust off and has done well when thrust into duty since his return, but he does have a penchant for turnovers.  Tuesday’s theme seemed to be dropping the ball, whereas some games it’s losing his handle.  It’s probable that his has to do with rust, so I’ll just be glad that he’s generally hitting open shots and contributing on offense and move on so long as it’s not a recurring theme a month from now.

Defense

It’s exhausting to so much as watch Dirk play on the opposing team, so I can’t even imagine what it must feel like to have to match-up with him as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Ersan Ilyasova had to do all night Tuesday.  But they kept trotting out there and giving it their best with varying degrees of success and I have a hard time finding any problems with the effort they gave.  LRMAM had a greater deal of success, a couple blocks and a steal I’ll address in one second, but most importantly he appears to realize that fouling Dirk is a huge no-no.  Occasionally Ersan would get a silly foul on Dirk, because Dirk lives for that kind of thing, but it’s almost as if LRMAM saw the bait and wouldn’t take it … at least not until the right moment when the man with the bait wasn’t ready for it to be taken.

On the Mavs last possession the ball was clearly going to be in Dirk’s hands.  How to stop it was the question and Luc had the answer few have had this year.  He waited for the right moment and pounced on Dirk’s left handed dribble, getting first his arm inside and then his whole body on the loose ball.  LRMAM’s final defensive play on Dirk was such a perfect attack it reminded me of a cobra stalking its prey and waiting to strike.  He’s had the challenge of trying to stop a posted up Dirk at the free-throw line before, so he waited to let Dirk get in just the position he wanted before he struck.  It was the defensive play of the night and probably as fine a defensive maneuver as anyone will put on Dirk all year long.

Final Thoughts

Last second plays have often been a problem for the Bucks of the past few years, so when they’re able to get a shot going towards to hoop with time expiring, it’s another thing I don’t really feel compelled to complain about.  It’s possible that Delfino doesn’t really have enough last second shot attempts in the NBA to qualify as a good option for a team that needs a bucket to win, but when he’s 8-12 and has had success attacking the hoop, it’s hard to question the logic.  Plus he’s got the size to shoot over a defender and shoot over a defender he had to do as Dampier challenged his 10-foot runner.

A question that may loom is whether or not the Bucks could have gotten the ball into Bogut for the last shot.  My opinion is that it’s tough to get it inside off an inbounds play and three seconds isn’t a lot of time for Bogut to make a move.  It probably would have resulted in a rushed shot and a finish no less disappointing than the one that actually happened.

But disappointment need not show itself around me tonight.  I’m feeling good, feeling great because the Bucks have strung together a couple weeks worth of strong performances, their record over that time be damned.  For a team that has the future in mind while playing for right now too it’s more important that the pieces start to show some signs of coming together and being greater than the whole they currently make up and in that department, the Bucks are making progress.

I’m positive.

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(Probable) Inactives: Michael Redd, Joe Alexander and Francisco Elson

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Dallas Mavericks (29-15)

(Probable) Inactives: Eduardo Najera and Matt Carroll

Game Time: 7:30 (CST)

Date: 1/26/2010

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Jason Kidd

Kidd was absent from the Mavs 50 point shellacking of the New York Knicks on Sunday, but should be ready to go when Milwaukee comes to town.  Kidd doesn’t have the necessary quickness to stick with Jennings anymore, so Jennings should be in full on attack mode Tuesday night.  I’ve said it many times before, Jennings needs to get to the rim for the Bucks to get easy shots and he should be able to get into the paint for those shots against Kidd.  The hitch in that plan could come if the Mavs go to Rodrigue Beaubois at all – he has more than enough speed to stay with Jennings.  Of course, the flip side with Kidd is that he can hit the open three if Jennings gets lost, which he’s prone to do on picks.

Advantage: Mavs

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Jason Terry

Hey, a match-up that may work for Bell!  Terry relies on quickness and his shooting prowess to create shots for himself.  He can make open shots and difficult ones, but doesn’t get to the rim with the great success that a bigger shooting guard may.  Given his lack of size, he’s a good match-up for the equally height deficient Bell.  Bell may see some time on Jason Kidd too, especially if Terry isn’t doing much and Kidd’s getting open three-point looks.  Terry’s been super inconsistent over his last five games (20, 4, 21, 8 and 18 point efforts) and that kind of sums up his entire year

Advantage: Mavs

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Shawn Marion

Marion looked to be on his way to giving the Bucks hell in the Mavs trip to the Bradley Center back in November, but he hurt himself early and didn’t return.  He’s the type of athlete that can get to the rim and give the Bucks problems.  If he gets Andrew Bogut into foul trouble that could mean all kinds of problems for the Bucks.  He’s also got the length to bother his man on defense and the quickness to stay with slashers.  In short, he could cause a whole different set of problems for the Bucks with his work on defense, even with Delfino having played terrific ball as of late.

Advantage: Mavs

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Dirk Nowitzki

Advantage: Mavs

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Erick Dampier

No longer is Bogut “Ericka Dampier with a beard” as Shaquille O’neal famously once said.  Bogut is now, at least has been for the most of this season, a premier defender with an ever developing post game that can be relied on for a nightly double-double.  Coach Skiles recently said Bogut is consistently a 16-10.5 kind of guy and they’d like to see him get to the 19-11 level on a more regular basis.  Dampier is a load underneath and will prove to be no pushover as Bogut tries to post up and drop in his variety of hooks and runners.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Jerry Stackhouse, Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova

Vs.

Josh Howard, Jose Barea, Drew Gooden and Rodrigue Beaubois

Beaubois’ last significant minutes before the New York blow out came when the Mavs visited Milwaukee.  As I said earlier, he has the speed to stay with Jennings and after a strong performance in New York he may be in line for a little more playing time against the Bucks in an attempt to capitalize on his good outing.  Gooden has been a poor-man’s Carlos Boozer often for the Mavs and can bring some real offense off the bench down low.  He can step out a little bit and give Bogut problems there.  Howard and Barea score in different ways but can both fill it up.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Mavs 101- Bucks 90

The Bucks stuck with the Mavs when they came to Milwaukee, but they did the same thing when the Lakers came to town and we remember what happened when Milwaukee visited L.A.  Obviously the road has been unkind to the Bucks and it’s hard to expect much to change against the Southwest Division leading Mavericks.  If the Bucks can keep it close and make it a toss-up in the end it’s possible luck owes them one, but that may be too much to ask.

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(Likely) Inactives: Josh Howard, Tim Thomas and Shawne Williams

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 5-2

(Likely) Inactives: Joe Alexander, Francisco Elson and Michael Redd

Game time: 7:00 (Cnt)

TV: NBA TV

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Jason Kidd

Scott Skiles said after Jennings’ incredible 55 point game one of the first things he told Jennings after the game was, “Congratulations.  Now go home, you get Jason Kidd on Monday.”  While it may sound terrifying to have to play against Jason Kidd, the reality at this point is much different.  Kidd is essentially a spot up shooter with a high basketball IQ and average defensive ability.  His foot speed as eroded to the point that if he guards Jennings at all before the last few possessions of the game I’ll be surprised.  Yes, Kidd can still ignite and lead a fast break with the best of them.  And he can still run the pick and roll or find Dirk in rhythm.  But his main purpose in the half court offense Dallas runs is to camp outside the three point arc and wait for Dirk to kick it out.  Kidd’s shooting six shots per game, with roughly four of them being three point attempts.  If a body is on him he won’t hurt the Bucks too bad in the half court.  But if the Bucks are missing shots and the Mavs can grab rebounds, Kidd can be a very valuable conductor of the fast break.  Sometimes offense is the most affective neutralizer a defense can have.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Rodrigue Beaubois

Entertaining match-up alert!  If I were to place a wager on something, I’d wager that Beaubois starts the game covering Brandon Jennings.  Who is Beaubois you ask?  Only the owner of one of the coolest names in the entire NBA.  Rodrigue was traded from Oklahoma City to Dallas on draft night and then spent the summer earning rave reviews for his work in the Vegas Summer League.  He averaged more points, shot a higher percentage than Brandon Jennings and had nearly as many highlight worthy plays.  With Josh Howard out for this one, Beaubois will get the start if Sunday is any indication.  Beaubois supposedly has Rajon Rondo type athleticism.  Here’s a tidbit on the young man from Rob at TheTwoManGame.com, a Dallas Mavericks blog.

Before Rodrigue Beaubois becomes a Tony Parker or a Rajon Rondo doppleganger, we’ll have hundreds of opportunities to freak out and then mellow out when it comes to his potential. Beaubois is going to make mistakes, and he’s going to do some things incredibly well.

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Shawn Marion

Delfino was sidelined with a stomach ailment against the Warriors on Saturday, but should return against the Mavs.  Marion was one of the big acquisitions the Mavericks made this off-season in an attempt to make another run with Dirk.  It’ s just too bad they didn’t acquire the Marion of five years ago.  Since Marion has left Phoenix, his numbers have plummeted and his value has declined.  With a game based largely on athleticism and tempo, age and new teams have not been kind of Marion.  In Phoenix he was able to run around, shoot the occasional three, block shots and play passing lanes.  Virtually every play was played at 100 miles per hour in the helter skelter system Mike D’Antoni ran.  Since then he’s been in systems that don’t play to those strengths and it’s rendered him much less affective.  After leaving Phoenix he’s still yet to shoot over 50%, his three point shooting has dropped from a typical rate of 33% to 20% in all games played post Phoenix (28-139) and his blocks and steals have come down from 2 and 1.5 per game to the current rate of 1.3 and .9.  At least Dallas has three more years guaranteed with him.  Still, he’s better than Delfino.  Per dollar though, not so much.

Advantage: Mavericks

Power Forward

Hakim Warrick vs. Dirk Nowitzki

What’s that Hakim Warrick?  You have trouble defending forwards who can shoot from the outside and use their size on you?  Well, Dirk Nowitzki shouldn’t be too much to handle then, right?  You get the picture.  Dirk probably saw all the hoopla surrounding Jennings’ 29 point quarter and scoffed, since he did the same thing only a few weeks ago.  Expect Dirk to see lots of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, mixed in with some Ersan Ilyasova and Warrick.

Advantage: Mavericks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Erick Dampier

Bogut and Dampier share the bond of having been ridiculed by Shaquille O’Neal together.  Shaq once called Dampier “Erica” and then referred to Bogut as “the white Dampier”.  Ass.  Bogut isn’t getting mixed up with the Dampier’s of the world anymore.  The Aussie has had double doubles in four of his last five games and has been the juice to Brandon Jennings’ gin in each of the rookie’s explosion games.  The teammate highlight of the Bucks season to date was Jennings alley-oop to Bogut during the third quarter of the Warriors game.  At the rate he’s going right now, Bogut is going to make people look hard and long at him for a spot on the Eastern Conference all-star team.  Dampier?  He missed Sunday’s game with an illness and may or may not play against Milwaukee.  He continues to rebound and block shots (nearly at career high rates), including one 20 rebound game this year already.  If Bogut can keep him off the offensive glass (if he plays) it’ll go a long way towards getting the Bucks a win.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, LRMAM, Ersan Ilyasova, Jodie Meeks and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

Jason Terry, Jose Barea, Kris Humphries, Drew Gooden and Quinton Ross

Terry can still score.  But it’s possible the Bucks will luck out and get Bad Jason Terry on Monday.  Bad Jason Terry has played the last three Maverick games.  He’s shot 37% (13-35) and averaged 13.3 points per game.  Good Jason Terry played the three games before that.  He shot 71% (27-38) and averaged 26 points per game.  After Terry the Mavs bring Jose Barea, once referred to as “The Spanish Iverson” for his quickness and instant offense at a diminutive stature.  Humphires was a surprise during the pre-season and actually is giving them quality minutes as the primary back-up to Dampier.  Oddly enough, Drew Gooden got the start over Humphries on Sunday when Damp was unavailable.  Gooden is a flakey, poor defending power forward who masquerades as a center and occasionally scores.  Ross is the defensive stopper, so expect him to get a few minutes on Jennings at some point.  If Jodie Meeks is able to start knocking down some of the open looks he’s been getting, the Bucks bench becomes some what formidable.  Ersan has been providing the same scrappy hustle play all year and they get maximum effort out of everyone.  Meeks has been the most aggressive offensive player off the bench, but has been a little short on a lot of his shots.  I expect him to have made the necessary adjustments and play well Monday.

Advantage: Milwaukee

Prediction: Bucks 93 – Mavs 84

There is no way the Bucks allow a big offensive outing out of the Mavericks Monday after the way Golden State torched their previously bullet proof defense in the last game.  Hearing Skiles harp about that for the last two days has likely got the players excited to go Monday night.  Also on Milwaukee’s side?  History.  The Bucks are a tidy 25-6 all time against Dallas at home including only three losses in the last 20 years.  The story Monday will be about whether the Bucks were able to contain Dirk Nowitzki and make the other Mavs step up.  Coach Rick Carlisle has already had to call out the Mavs on their effort level, something you probably won’t be hearing about in Milwaukee this year.

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