Salary returning for Milwaukee: $56,068,163 (Kudos to ShamSports.com for the numbers)
Salary Cap: $58-60 million
Luxury Tax Level: Between $70-75 million (Probably at least. The NBA out did their projections it sounds like, so I’d expect the luxury tax not to fall from its current amount: $69.920 million.)

Resignable Free Agents
Luke Ridnour
John Salmons
Kurt Thomas
Jerry Stackhouse
Royal Ivey

At this point, Stackhouse and Thomas are veteran’s minimum ($1,352,181) guys and I’d say it’s no better than 50/50 that either of them will return. They played nice roles this season, but counting on them next season to contribute as much as they did this season may be a recipe for disaster. Ridnour is looking at backup point guard money, which is also known as a huge pay cut. Teams have had great success recently with younger players at the point, and while this year’s draft is not as point guard rich as last season’s, he could feel the crunch in terms of his salary. The market value for Ridnour can’t be much higher than $3 million a season.

Salmons has an extension staring him in the face that would keep him at $5.8 million this next season. He’d be wise to accept a contract that gives him four more seasons of above mid-level money, but he wouldn’t be the first player to mistakenly assume he’s worth more than he is.

If Ridnour comes back at $3 million and Salmons does the same at $5.8 million, they’ll be looking at roughly $65 million in salary, and that’s before draft picks are factored in. If Milwaukee keeps each of their three draft picks, the roster will be at 14 players (factoring in Darnell Jackson), with Royal Ivey being a possible option for the fifteenth spot.

So, free agency? I’m thinking it won’t factor heavily into Milwaukee’s plans this off-season.

But trades? Trades may once again alter the Bucks landscape. Last summer they shook things up and locked up the NBA title for San Antonio by handing them Richard Jefferson on a silver platter. What’s that? Kurt Thomas had nearly the same PER as Jefferson in the playoffs (10.0-10.9)? Oh. It’s funny how that worked out. That bold move showed that John Hammond is not afraid to make big moves over the off-season rather than stand pat and hope for development.

Who could the Bucks have some interest in this off-season (and who would I like to see them have interest in in some of the cases)?

Josh Childress
Milwaukee flirted with Childress last off-season, but was unable to get anything done. To land Childress, Childress is still a restricted free agent and he makes roughly $7 million after taxes in Europe (over $10 million in NBA money), so the hurdles Milwaukee would need to get over to work out a deal with Childress would be significant. The Bucks would likely have to work out some kind of sign and trade with the Hawks, which can only happen if Childress does not sign an offer sheet with the Bucks. Childress was last seen in the NBA in 2007-08 and would fit the Bucks as a high percentage shooter with the ability to defend and do the little things Milwaukee loves so much.

Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is signed through 2013/14 for all kinds of crazy money, over $55 million. For the suddenly rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers, that doesn’t quite add up. If they could dump him for an expiring contract and a younger player, odds are they’d love to. Michael Redd and two draft picks may get the Sixers ear as a starting point. Iggy is versatile, a good defender, athletic and capable of hitting an open three. Unfortunately, Iggy has fallen for the three in the last three years (over 300 attempts in two of the past three years while shooting roughly 30%) and hasn’t fit as a leader on a once emerging Sixers squad. He’s naturally a better fit as a supporting player and he may be thrust into too large a role on the Bucks if they weren’t able to get another star wing. His contract simply won’t allow for him to ever be a good value, something Milwaukee needs to thrive on.

Carl Landry
John Hammond acknowledged he had interest in Landry at the trade deadline. The Kings hold the third pick in the draft, prime DeMarcus Cousins territory. Jason Thompson has three years left on his contract and Landry has one. All those signs add up to the possibility that Landry could be had. At $3 million next season, Landry is a very valuable player and an expiring contract. He’s not someone who eats the ball, but he is someone who can score efficiently. He’s precisely the kind of player who would fit in Milwaukee at the power forward spot.

Brandon Bass
In each of the next three seasons, Bass will make $4 million and likely sit behind Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat (if he’s kept), Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson. If Orlando wins the title this season, they may be interested in shedding just enough payroll to stay under the luxury tax, but no one of enough value to knock them from the league’s elite. Per 36 minutes this past season, Bass averaged 16 points while shooting over 50% from the field, grabbed 7.1 rebounds and blocked 1.5 shots. His numbers suggest he could be more productive, past his allotted salary even, if given more minutes. Perhaps a combination of second round picks and lesser salaries could balance and get Bass in Milwaukee. I’d love to see Bass in a Bucks uniform.

After a few days off to recharge my battery, I’m back with the final segment of the Haiku Reviews. Coming in the next week will be more on potential free agent targets and a draft page. Stay tuned this week.

Jodie Meeks

Shots caromed off rim
Motor never stopped running
It paid off later.

Meeks struggled mightily when given opportunities in Milwaukee, but flashed the shooting touch so many saw at Kentucky when given a more significant opportunity in Philadelphia. In baseball, people often discuss how difficult for young players to fill a utility role where they’re asked to pinch hit frequently. They simply don’t get enough reps to be successful. Well, that may have been the case for Meeks. He shot under 30% on threes for the Bucks this season, but hit nearly 40% for Philadelphia and was at 50% in his final month when his playing time ticked up. Meeks may have benefitted the Bucks more by not playing this season or getting time in the D-League. Perhaps they wouldn’t have given up on him so soon if they saw him progressing with more regular time. Milwaukee received a second round pick for Meeks, so they essential have an opportunity to start over next season and hope they’ll get a better fit. Read more…

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-3

Date: 4/30/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN & FS Wisconsin

The Breakdown

By game six in a seven game playoff series, there are no secrets any more. Both teams know what their opponent wants to do, both teams know what their own teams must do to win. By game six, it simply comes down to which team’s will is stronger, who’s better at imposing their game on the opponent. Typically it’s a no-brainer in my mind that this is where talent comes out on top.

But it’s not that simple anymore.

Milwaukee has so blurred the lines of talent in this series, that I’m not sure we can truly measure the more talented team. The common perception thus far has been this series has been more Atlanta blowing it than Milwaukee taking it. I’m not buying that. Milwaukee isn’t a pretty team and they don’t have great offensive statistics, but what happened to that old axiom that defense and rebounding win when it slows down in the playoffs. Have we all forgotten that?

This series has been a testament to the difficulty we have in measuring defensive abilities and hustle. When Milwaukee holds Atlanta to at the rim shooting percentages of 48%, 41% and 58%, all under their season average of 63%, it still is spun more as Hawks missing layups rather than Milwaukee challenging them. Something changed after the first two games in this series and Milwaukee imposed their will on Atlanta.

So while we’ve seen all kinds of statistical advances over the last few years, we’re still not quite there yet. We can’t accurately measure each aspect of every game. Sometimes, you just have to see it to believe it. If you’ve watched the last three games of this series, I have a hard time you can honestly believe the Hawks are the superior team. 82 games worth of regular season data may indicate otherwise, but the playoffs are a different animal.

An animal the Bucks could tame this evening. Read more…

I remember walking out of the Bradley Center on March 28th feeling very good about things. Milwaukee had just defeated the Grizzlies, the day was still young after the early game, the temperature was in the 60’s and a possible successful playoff run was on the horizon.  Now, less than one month later, clouds draped the air on a cold and damp Saturday afternoon when I approached. It was almost too perfect a representation of Milwaukee’s season.

What was once so bright, had turned so dim that the light was nearly off

And then Brandon Jennings hit a three and busted out the three point monocle.

And then he did it again.

And again.

Then John Salmons got involved. When it was all said and done, Milwaukee was up 36-19 after one, the Jennings/Salmons duo was 9-10 and the brightness had officially returned to Milwaukee’s season.

Surprise seems to be the appropriate reaction, but should anyone really be shocked? Atlanta was a below average road team this season, MIlwaukee was an above average home team and Milwaukee had shot very poorly from three in the first two games. All those factors seemed to work in Milwaukee’s favor.

There was some smaller things Milwaukee did well to get themselves off first round life support — switching Luc Richard Mbah a Moute onto Josh Smith comes to mind — but remembering that they at one time used to hit open shots this season was by and large the most important thing Milwaukee did in game three.

Offense

I’ve been saying it and saying it: eventually the Bucks would start hitting some shots. All it took was getting back to the comforts of home. After three point shooting percentages that rivaled the temperatures on a normal winter day in Wisconsin, the Bucks finally found the bottom of the net on Saturday evening, hitting 10-21 3s. I actually pinpointed 10 as the number of threes the Bucks would need to hit to win game two, so I guess I was just a game early.

For all the coaching adjustments, matching up and other things that go into a playoff series, sometimes it’s the simple things that end up making the biggest difference. For the Bucks, that “little thing” was finally hitting the three at a respectable clip.

• I said this during the Daily Dime Live Chat and I’ll say it again: what a relief it must have been for the Bucks coaching staff and entire Bradley Center crowd to see Kurt Thomas’ long lost 15-foot jumper. Thomas finished 4-4 from the field. He looked good scoring eight points and grabbing 13 rebounds. Thomas and Delfino have deservedly shouldered plenty of blame for the Bucks struggles in the first two games, but it’s only appropriate to mention how Thomas’ playing his typical game played a big part in the Bucks taking game three.  Milwaukee doesn’t need Thomas to do anything outside of his comfort zone, they just need him to do things longer than he might be built for at this point. The three days off seemed to do wonders for him.  

• Yes, Brandon Jennings did cool off once again. But that didn’t mean he stopped contributing. As my first defense in this case I’d present his behind the back pass to Jerry Stackhouse after hounding Mike Bibby into a turnover. Stack finished with a dunk and senior citizens everywhere were suddenly inspired. Jennings was 5-11 (3-6 3FG) and scored 13 points to go with five assists.

• While Jennings couldn’t maintain his hot start, John Salmons did. Yet again.  The Bucks big pickup (seriously, shouldn’t he get to hold John Hammond’s executive of the year award for a few months a year) came through when Milwaukee needed him the most with 22 points on 9-11 shooting. Even better, Salmons tallied seven assists and was creating for the Bucks who can’t create so much for themselves. He’s a humanitarian that John Salmons.

Defense

If I had the power to write things on the Bucks chalk board before games I would have wrote these three words in all caps: STOP JOSH SMITH. And you know what? I would have been pleased with Milwaukee’s effort in doing just that. Unequivocally the biggest thorn in the side of the Bucks through the first two games, Smith finally was contained a bit. Smith had been feasting on offensive rebound putbacks and fast break dunks, but the Bucks weren’t giving anything easy away to him on Saturday. Sure, he still managed  nine offensive rebounds, but few of them resulted in dunks for him or points at all for the Hawks. Atlanta scored just 12 second chance points on 6-18 shooting. After shooting over 70% through the first two games, Smith finished Saturday’s game 2-12. Someone find Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s belt and put another notch in it.

• So what’s the more accurate representation of this Hawks team? The over 50% efforts from the field they had in games one and two, or this sub-40% shooting effort they produced Saturday night? It’s probably somewhere in the middle. The key to keeping them down for Milwaukee was preventing all the easy baskets they got in games one and two. When Josh Smith was heading in for a dunk, he had Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Thomas and Dan Gadzuric meeting him at the rim. Defensively, Milwaukee was simply a much more confident group.

• I’d be remiss to let a nice night from Dan Gadzuric go by without pointing it out though. After many cries from the crowd for Gadzuric after Thomas struggled so badly in the first two games, Gadz saw 17 minutes and produced 10 rebounds. It’s just what he does.

Final Thoughts

I now find myself wondering, “will we ever get a good game in this series?”  The Hawks seem prone to both blowouts and doing the blowing out, but I can’t help but expect game four to be a lot closer than game three either way. Milwaukee will not continue to shoot at the clips they did and the hawks will probably find a way to put some more points on the board.  But as my final final thought, I did really enjoy something I saw from Milwaukee that I haven’t in years.

The mild-mannered Luke Ridnour holding his pose on a three to put the Bucks up 93-65 with the shot clock running down.  If you think Brandon Jennings wasn’t the rookie of the year, I get that.  But don’t try and tell me he didn’t have more of an impact on a team than any other rookie. This one started with Jennings and the monocle and ended with Ridnour holding his pose. These are not your slightly older brother’s Bucks NBA fans.

With the Miami Heat emerging victorious (sadly and barely) from their last game of the season against New Jersey, clinching the fifth seed and leaving the Bucks to play the Hawks in the three-six matchup, it’s hard to get too excited about any of the positives that came from the Bucks Wednesday night win over Boston.

It’s merely evident now that Milwaukee’s jayvee plus team can defeat the Celtics freshman team.  And I think that was probably a safe bet already.  Milwaukee has pounded into us all season that they have good depth.  From one through eleven, Milwaukee can plug different guys into different lineups and compete with most starters and defeat most benches.

Once again Wednesday night, Milwaukee got productive games out of Luke Ridnour, Jerry Stackhouse, Ersan Ilyasova and even …

*gasp* Dan Gadzuric?

Yes, under the right circumstances even old Gadzuric can look good again.

But the circumstances will be much different in the playoffs now.  The Hawks have been a problem for Milwaukee all season.  Hell, they’ve been a problem for the majority of the league all season.  A group that’s been playing together for years now, Atlanta has the versatility, the star power, the defense and the offense to make a deep run into the playoffs and even scare the East’s top two.

If Milwaukee were about to embark on a playoff series with Boston, the questions would be how many games could Milwaukee win?  Would the Celtics lose their cool during the series, specifically Rasheed Wallace. Could Milwaukee capitalize on any of those moments and gain some momentum?  Basically, the questions about that potential series were full of hope and possibility.  It would still be a long shot, but Milwaukee would at least be on the verge of a series that was going to likely have some give and take.

Now I can’t help but ask questions like, how is this series going to look any different than Monday night?  Will Milwaukee shoot over 42% in any of the games?  How many points is Joe Johnson going to average?  My feelings of hope and excitement have withered away significantly.  I know asking the big “What If” about Andrew Bogut won’t do any good, but it keeps coming back to me and gnawing at me.

But I guess it is what it is.  The bottom line is that the Bucks are still going to be playing playoff games again this year, which is still a terrific feat.  And I’m glad we got this final game of the regular season out of the way.  Now, as Brandon Jennings so elegantly put it after Monday night’s game against Atlanta, we can just “lace ‘em up and let’s hoop.” Read more…