Atlanta Hawks

97

Final Recap | Box Score

92

Milwaukee Bucks

	Andrew Bogut, C 25 MIN | 3-10 FG | 0-0 FT | 12 REB | 4 AST | 6 PTS | 0 Offensively, Bogut isn’t where he wants to be, he isn’t where the Bucks want him to be and he isn’t where Scott Skiles wants him to be. Skiles was asked about Bogut after the game and he said he thought Bogut struggled tonight. Asked if he was concerned this far into the season that Bogut hasn’t been able to find his touch on his post-up moves and Skiles said, “A little bit.” Take that for what you will. The center’s absence late in the game did little to increase Skiles’ popularity in southeast Wisconsin.
	Brandon Jennings, PG 40 MIN | 9-22 FG | 0-0 FT | 5 REB | 11 AST | 21 PTS | -2 It can’t be all 30 point games and it can’t be all 5-20 nights for Jennings. There has to be some kind of middle. Monday night was just a little better of the middle. He shot a decent percentage, but most importantly, he was in attack mode all night and was finding teammates regularly. Jennings detractors often point to his low assist totals as a sign he’s not much of a real point guard. They didn’t have much to point to Monday.
	Stephen Jackson, SG 28 MIN | 0-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 0 PTS | -1 Maybe he was tired of hearing everyone complain about his shot-selection or his ball holding or whatever else we’ve all been complaining so much about. Whatever the reason, Jackson took just one shot on Monday night, which was a fair amount of unbelievable. It wasn’t like he wasn’t playing hard – he drew a particularly nice charge on Joe Johnson in the fourth quarter. It was strange to see him so uninvolved with the offense though. He just moved the ball quick and went on his way while Jennings, Gooden and Dunleavy did the heavy lifting in the fourth quarter. Very un-Jacksonlike. He’s a man who could stand some balance in his game now that we’ve seen both extremes. He said after the game that shots didn’t come tonight and that his role was no different. He went as far as to say a question about whether or not his role was different tonight was dumb. For the record, this is the first game in Jackson’s career that he’s played at least 25 minutes and attempted one or fewer shots. Seemed like a relevant question.
	Drew Gooden, PF 23 MIN | 4-10 FG | 4-5 FT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 13 PTS | -5 Gooden is so many things. Ridiculous. Polished. Aggressive. Complacent. Clever. Foolish. He’s all these things at once. It makes for a maddeningly frustrating player to watch and it was curious that he played so much of the fourth quarter. Yes, he has the ability to make a shot and his drives to the basket do often result in the free throws that Bogut never draws, but he’s just so damn all over the place. Despite the okay numbers, he had some costly defensive three second violations in the fourth. But hey, somehow he hit a three to tie it with a minute to go. I give up.
	Mike Dunleavy, SF 31 MIN | 6-15 FG | 5-5 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 17 PTS | +2 Dunleavy still didn’t hit a three. So he decided he could be useful in other ways. Instead of coming off screens behind the arc, he curled in an extra step and shot twos. His form is terrific, spin unreal and release the same every single time. But really, he needs to start making some threes too. A good time to start would have been the one he missed with Milwaukee down three and no one within five feet of him with 30 seconds to play. Also he turned it over on Milwaukee’s last important possession. Sigh.
	Ersan Ilyasova, PF 28 MIN | 3-7 FG | 4-7 FT | 11 REB | 0 AST | 10 PTS | -1 Ilyasova is very, very tough. He has to be leading the Bucks, if not the league in one handed rebounds that were tipped away from two or three other defenders. Jon Leuer has lost some playing time, a lot of playing time, lately, but be sure that Ilyasova is earning his share of what were Leuer’s minutes.

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Don’t expect a superstar.

Those are my words of advice to anyone curious about who the Milwaukee Bucks will end up drafting with the 10 pick in just over a month.  In prepping my expectations for Milwaukee’s pick, I’ve gone through every draft since 2000 to try and get a feel for what becomes of the number 10 pick.  In the above chart, I measure performance of every guard or wing pick since 2000 by PER.  I’m sticking with guards and wings for now, as every indication seems to point to Milwaukee going after a two or three (or maybe a tweener four) with its first pick.

The highlight of the past decade?  Joe Johnson.  Johnson started off in a bit role in Boston, moved to a larger role in Phoenix and now leads an annual playoff team in Atlanta.  Sure, his contract is going to bite back on the Hawks in a few years, but he’s still performing at a high level for now and gives them someone to turn to at the end of the game.  He’s as close to being a superstar as anyone on this list and someone the Bucks would absolutely love to get at the 10 spot.

One had his best moments on the court, the other shined during Playstation battles.

The lowlight of the past decade?  Luke Jackson. Don’t let that high-water mark in his first year fool you, his NBA career never got off the ground, partly due to back surgeries in each of his first two seasons.  In only one of his four seasons in the league did he shoot better than 40%.

If this season’s draft is as weak as many are saying, Milwaukee will likely be dealing with a player much closer to Jackson’s end of the spectrum than Johnson’s. But that doesn’t mean they can’t get a player that can provide something.

The lack of athleticism on the wing in Milwaukee last season was startling at times, and rarely was it more evident than on the fast break. Two-on-ones and three-on-twos were regularly botched as the Bucks lacked a player that could rise above the opponent and finish strong at the rim. Milwaukee was relying on timely passing and fakes to create open looks where other teams simply made a single pass and went hard to the rim.  Watching the Miami Heat take on the Chicago Bulls often looks like a clinic on fast break finishing.  LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose needn’t so much as consider any unnecessary pass on a break.  With their athletic abilities, defenders bounce off and fall short of them with regularity.

Milwaukee didn’t have that type of finisher very often last season.  Larry Sanders had his moments trailing the break, but he’s hardly the guy a team wants handling the ball in the open court.  Corey Maggette filled the finisher role better than most on the team, but he forced so much offense elsewhere that it was difficult for him to find consistent minutes.  Milwaukee will likely look to shore up their athleticism problems by finding a player who has some athletic gifts, but is willing to pick his spots and learn where he can be effective in Milwaukee’s offense.  That’s what Milwaukee seems to have on their hands in Sanders.

He may take the mid-range jumper a bit much for the liking of many, but Sanders always appears eager to learn and willing to work. Match those traits with game changing athleticism and Milwaukee has to ultimately be pleased with where last season’s first round pick is heading. The Bucks could do a lot worse than the wing version of Larry Sanders in this year’s shallow draft pool.

But history shows that chances are, they won’t do a lot better.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook (to the right).

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Every time the Milwaukee Bucks have summoned the strength to take a step forward this season the team has made sure to follow it up with two steps back.  After a three game winning streak heading into Sunday’s game against Boston, that’s kind of what losses to the Celtics and Atlanta Hawks over the past few days were.  Except these two losses didn’t feel like two regular steps back.

These losses felt more like two steps back into oncoming traffic.

After a 56-point effort that had people everywhere snickering and joke telling, Milwaukee was hoping to rebound with a momentum builder in Atlanta Tuesday night.  Instead, Milwaukee nearly played as poorly against the Hawks as the team did against the Celtics.  Milwaukee’s defense showed as little fight as its offense has all season in a 110-85 stomping.

Not that it was impossible to see another loss coming.  Since the calender flipped to 2011, Milwaukee has played 36 games, posting a 14-22 record.  When combing through the wins and losses, the story tells itself: Milwaukee generally beats bad teams and loses to good ones.

Wins over: Dallas, New Jersey (2), Washington (2), Cleveland (2), Atlanta, Toronto (2), LA Clippers, T-Wolves, Pistons and Sixers.

The last time Milwaukee beat a team with a winning percentage better than .500 was December 21, when Earl Boykins bailed them out against the Los Angeles Lakers.

This isn’t news to the Bucks.  After Tuesday’s game, Brandon Jennings told the Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel, “It doesn’t get any easier. Things are going to have to change pretty soon. We’re going to have to start beating some of the good teams, too.”

Lines like that have been common place during this season.  Things have had to change for some time and Milwaukee has had to make a run since forever, but signs of hope have been few and far between.  Four of Milwaukee’s next six games come against Orlando, New York and Chicago.  If they lose all four, at least Milwaukee’s fans can finally stop worrying about getting their collective hopes up anymore.

Offense

Andrew Bogut sprung for 20 or more points for only the seventh time this season against the Hawks, dropping in 21 on 10 of 17 shooting while grabbing 13 rebounds.  Typically, when Bogut has it going and reaches that threshold, we’re discussing a strong Bucks performance afterwords.  Tuesday’s debacle was the first egg Milwaukee laid that coincided with a Bogut 20 point game.  The team dropped to 5-2 when Bogut scores 20 or more.  That it took until March 15 for Bogut to reach his seventh 20-point game goes a long way towards explaining Milwaukee’s offensive struggles though.  Last season Bogut tallied 20-point game number seven on December 21.

• Earl Barron leading a team in assists is more often than not, a harbinger of a big loss.  And that held true on Tuesday.  Barron cleaned up in garbage time for the Bucks.  Unlike his teammates, he was hell bent on making the most of his opportunity.  Barron finished with eight points, four rebounds and tied for the team lead with four assists in 15 minutes.

• The Brandon Jennings Rollercoaster continues to follow any peaks with terrifying drops.  Milwaukee’s sometimes accurate, but often not so, point guard made just one of eight shots from the field while turning it over twice, one for each assist he handed out.  Jennings hardly any worse than Keyon Dooling or even Earl Boykins Tuesday though, as they both finished one of four from the field.  I’m not sure if that makes me feel any better or any worse about his performance.  I’m not sure it even matters at this point in the season.

Defense

20-0 runs are not a good look.  Joe Johnson hitting every three from everywhere, is not a good look.  Allowing 63% shooting to an opponent is not a good look.  There was nothing good about Milwaukee’s defense on Tuesday night.  Atlanta over-matched and overwhelmed the Bucks early and put it on cruise control the rest of the way.  Milwaukee obliged and cruised to the loss.  Johnson finished with 36 points on 13 of 19 shooting, including a ridiculous six of nine performance from long range.

• Oddly enough the Hawks played into Milwaukee’s hands as far as turnovers went.  The Bucks forced Atlanta in to 21 turnovers leading to 27 Bucks points.  Maybe the Bucks could have stayed with Atlanta on a typical shooting night for the Hawks, but the way they were hitting shots throughout the night, Milwaukee had little chance.

Final Thoughts

Milwaukee has just three more road games against good teams, so fortunately this sort of torturous basketball appears to be almost over.  Unless the Bucks can still find some way to sneak into that last playoff spot.  Then we’ll have two more of these efforts in the playoffs unless the Bucks undergo some sort of dramatic change in cohesiveness between now and then.  The most damning part of Tuesday’s game was a weak offensive effort despite a strong night from Bogut.

It’s rare Milwaukee’s defense will play so bad, but a common cure for the offense this season has been steady Bogut.  But if the team’s offense can’t spark even when he’s playing well, then we’re talking about a team more broken than any of us imagined.  And that lines up pretty well with what we’ve seen over the past two games.  A broken team.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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If you only have been watching Bucks games this season, you’re certainly aware of the three-point shot, but you may not have known how quickly it can turn a game around.

Now you know.

The simple way to explain Milwaukee’s improbable comeback from down 11 points to begin the fourth quarter is like this: they got hot.  Hot enough to outscore the Atlanta Hawks by 19 points in the fourth quarter on their way to a 98-90 victory in Milwaukee Wednesday night.

It started with Carlos Delfino.  Having struggled miserably in his first three games back from injury, some were calling for reduced minutes, or at least reduced shots for Delfino.  At least until he started making shots again.  Things can turn quickly in basketball though and Delfino appeared to have found his form early Wednesday night.  Delfino had made two of four threes heading into the fourth quarter.  He then hit another on Milwaukee’s first possession of the fourth quarter to cut Atlanta’s lead to eight and by the time he made his third and final three in the period, he was putting the Bucks up five.

He didn’t do it all by himself though.

Former D-Leaguer Garrett Temple sprinkled in a pair of timely threes and Earl Boykins went on one of his patented shot-making sprees to key a Bucks offense that had been lifeless throughout the game.  Defensively the Bucks kept after the Hawks and Atlanta did little to put pressure back onto a surging Milwaukee team.  The Hawks had been moving the ball well enough to get good looks and got solid play inside from Al Horford for three quarters.  But when things fell apart in the fourth quarter, the team started relying on Josh Smith jump-shots to get them back into the game.  Predictably, that failed miserably.

And on every miss the Bucks had a little more energy and countered with the plays they needed to make.

Offense

Garrett Temple only arrived in Milwaukee yesterday, but picked up everything he needed to by game time.  And the stuff he didn’t know about, he was fed by his teammates throughout the game.  Temple said he practiced mainly at point guard in his lone practice with the team, but he saw action exclusively at the two and three on Wednesday night.  He looked like a natural fit.

He finished with just eight points, but made three of five shots, grabbed three rebounds and handed out three assists while not committing a turnover.  He made a particularly key pass to Delfino in the fourth quarter.  With the Hawks in a zone and the ball swung to him on the right side, he skipped his pass across the court to a waiting Delfino outside the arc.  Delfino finished the play by making the three and the Bucks were up five with 2:29 to go.  Plays like that haven’t always been made for the Bucks this season.

• While the Bucks struggled early on, Corey Maggette did his best to keep his squad close.  Maggette uncharacteristically connected on three of four threes, as he made eight of 12 shots total for 22 points, despite not scoring in the fourth quarter.  Maggette fouled out on a questionable slap of Horford’s wrist with 2:46 remaining, but his teammates had already picked up where he’d left off after three quarters.

• When shots begin to fall, suddenly the Bucks look quite accomplished at moving the ball.  Milwaukee had seven assists in the fourth quarter on 11 made shots.  For the game, the Bucks handed out 22 assists and committed just seven turnovers.  Run of the mill stuff for a team that’s protected the ball well all season long.

• Delfino’s contributed his typical “little things” in each of the games he’s played in, but had his shot falling for the first time to match those tonight.  He finished with 15 points on five of 11 shooting (5-9 3FG) and grabbed five rebounds while handing out four assists.  Milwaukee saw five different players hand out at least three assists.

Defense

If he played enough minutes, Larry Sanders would lead the NBA in block percentage.  And I’m using numbers that didn’t even include tonight’s performance.  Sanders added three more blocks to his total against the Hawks.  For a guy as raw as Sanders, he looks so very comfortable on defense.  Sure of himself and aware of where he is supposed to be.  The same can’t always be said about his offensive game, but his development defensively has to be a nice surprise for the Bucks.

• Atlanta didn’t stick with it enough, but there were times when Smith and Joe Johnson were terrorizing Milwaukee’s guards and small forwards in the low post.  Smith particularly was all too content to settle for mid-range jumpers when he had an obvious quickness or size advantage over every Bucks player that covered him.  He’d finish with just 14 points on six for 20 shooting.

• Atlanta shot nearly 50% over the first three quarters.  The fourth quarter though, saw the Hawks make just 22.7% of their shots, while the Bucks connected on 61.1% of their attempts.

Final Thoughts

Is this a replicable formula?  That’s the question I was asking at the end of the game.  It’s unlikely the Bucks will make 10 of 20 threes on most nights, but they should be a better shooting team going forward than they have been, so long as Delfino is closer to Wednesday night’s Delfino than Monday night’s.  But Milwaukee got some unlikely performances.  Earl Boykins bails them out on occasion, but he won’t often make seven of 11 shots.  The Bucks got very hot for one quarter on Wednesday.  Against the Hawks, a team with a penchant for letting opponents back into games, that’ll work.  And it’ll work against a lot of bad teams too.

But the Bucks cannot continue to fall behind they way they’ve done so often this season if they are serious about making a run at .500 yet.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Enemy: Hoopinion

Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Mike Bibby

We’ve been over this a time or two.  Dooling: defense.  Bibby: offense.  Fortunately for Milwaukee, Dooling’s a better offensive player than Bibby is a defensive player.  Especially lately.  Dooling’s connected on 43.2% of his threes this month and 41.6% of his shots overall.  Injuries to Brandon Jennings and John Salmons have forced Dooling into a much bigger role over the past month and a half and for the most part, he’s responded well.  Defensively there are some players he matches up with better than others, but he’s always competitive at that end.  Earlier in the season his shooting was an adventure, but he’s normalized over the past month.  Dooling’s had plenty of criticism come his way this season, but he’s been more than adequate as Milwaukee’s number two point guard.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard
Chris Douglas-Roberts vs. Joe Johnson

CD-R is tough to peg.  The last time he scored 30 points, he followed that up with games of 24 points and 0 points.  Before his 30 point game in Chicago, he failed to score in 15 minutes against Memphis.  His successes seem to have something to do with him getting in good shots early, and then playing enough defense to stay on the court while he’s hot.  There’s no question, at times, that CD-R can be the Bucks best scorer.  But like many of his teammates, he’s searching for consistency.  Johnson has found consistency.  He’s averaging better than 26 points per game this month while shooting better than 50%.  He could alter CD-R’s night rather quickly with a strong start that sends Milwaukee’s mercurial shooting guard to the bench.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward
Corey Maggette vs. Josh Smith

Maggette’s been bothered by a sore hand lately, which he said contributed to his passive play against Memphis.  He played just 20 minutes against Chicago and only attempted four shots, so it appears the hand may still be bothering him.  Most of Maggette’s shot attempts are spot-up jump shots.  He said after the Memphis game that his hand hurt when he shot, so if Maggette’s feeling those effects on the majority of his shots, his accuracy could be an issue.  As is, Maggette’s making just 37.5% of his spot up attempts, a poor number that could get worse before it gets better due to his injury.

Advantage: Hawks

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Al Horford

Horford should be back from injury just in time to matchup with the Bucks.  He’s too quick for Ilyasova outside and strong enough to muscle him inside.  And he has a feathery touch on his mid-range jumper.  So, yeah, he’s going to be a problem for the Bucks power forward.  Best case scenario is that Ilyasova keeps Horford from doing too much damage on the glass and gets his jump shot going early.  When Ilyasova is playing confident, it makes a world of difference and can turn him into an impact player.  Milwaukee could use one of those to balance out Horford.

Advantage: Hawks

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Jason Collins

The Hawks went with Zaza Pachulia as their starting center after their offensive debacle in New Orleans, so he could get the call again against the Bucks.  Collins has had moderate success against Milwaukee this season though, posting an ultra-rare double digit rebounding game in Milwaukee earlier this season.  Slowly but surely, Bogut’s rebounding numbers are creeping ahead of his scoring numbers as he continues to struggle offensively.  Aside from tap-ins around the rim and the occasional hook, it’s tough to rely on Bogut to do much consistently while he battles the virus that’s bothering him.  He tweeted that the virus that’s troubling him won’t be going away any time soon either.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Earl Boykins, Garrett Temple, Larry Sanders and Carlos Delfino

vs.

Jamal Crawford, Zaza Pachulia, Marvin Williams and Maurice Evans

Without Jennings, Salmons or Drew Gooden, Milwaukee’s bench look awfully thin.  Garrette Temple, newly signed D-League veteran, could provide a boost on the wing.  He’s more defender than scorer, but could surprise.  If he can hit an open jump shot, he can play for the Bucks.  Delfino’s been struggling to make any shot at all since his return from a concussion, but certainly hasn’t been shy about shooting.  He’s made seven of 28 from the field since returning, and just two of 16 from behind the arc.  Atlanta’s bench starts with Jamal Crawford, the explosive scorer, but will get a boost from the returning Marvin Williams.  As the Bucks struggle for health, the Hawks have healed up.  Perfect.

Advantage: Hawks

Prediction: Hawks 103 – Bucks 90

Atlanta is a talented team that’s finally gotten healthy.  Milwaukee’s not quite so talented and just as unhealthy as they’ve been all season.  Plus, the Bucks have struggled all season to defend their home court, something they did very well a year ago.  Coming into Wednesday’s game, the Bucks are just 9-10 at home.  Add that all up and Milwaukee could be in danger of falling a season low 11 games under .500.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Milwaukee Bucks	Team	Charlotte Bobcats
Scott Skiles	Coach	Paul Silas
29-43	Record	30-42
Ersan Ilyasova and Chris Douglas-Roberts	Injuries/Inactive	DeSegana Diop, Tyrus Thomas and Joel Przybilla
101.3	Offensive Efficiency	102.8
102.6	Defensive Efficiency	107.2
Date	March 28, 2011
Time	6:00 PM (CST)

Enemy: Hoopinion

Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Mike Bibby

Dooling has far more freedom to impact games than Bibby.  It seems as though if it were practical, Atlanta would replace their starting point guard with some sort of machine that never ventured inside of the arc and only shot 3-pointers.  Milwaukee’s point guards, on the contrary, are heavily involved with the Bucks offense and have a significant hand in figuring who is getting what shots.  Dooling has only twice had fewer than five assists since stepping in for the injured Brandon Jennings. I wouldn’t expect Tuesday night to differ any for him.  In the last meeting between these teams, Dooling had 15 points and nine assists.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Joe Johnson

Johnson has posted three consecutive games with 10 or more made field goals and shot better than 50% in each game.  That sort of reliability is what Atlanta paid for this past off-season and something the Bucks can only dream about.  Salmons annual slow and steady incline is on track, as he’s hit 40% of his shots in January.  His monthly shooting percentages: 33%, 37%, 39.5% and 40%.  Perhaps we’ll once again see Salmons take off as the year carries on, even without his annual February trade.  Bully.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward
Luc Mbah a Moute vs. Josh Smith

After virtually an entire season up to last week without much productivity at the three, Milwaukee’s had a strong two games from their small forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts has scored 24 and 30 points in his past two games and, in starting with Andrew Bogut out, Corey Maggette tallied 20 points on five of nine shooting against the Nets.  Meanwhile, Mbah a Moute was often moved over to his more natural power forward position where he played as well as he typically does there.  Smith, like Mbah a Moute but more effectively, can also switch between the three and the four.  When the Hawks use their big lineup as they did against Milwaukee last time, he starts at the three and causes the Bucks problems there.

Advantage: Hawks

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Al Horford

More naturally a center, Horford is a load at the four.  He’s been more consistent than ever this season and can effectively shoot the ball out to 15-feet.  He’s a huge matchup problem for both centers and forwards because of his strength and his quickness.  Ilyasova is coming off a strong game against the Nets (22 points, 13 rebounds), one in which he spent the majority of the night at center.  Stringing together more than one or two solid games has been an issue for Ilyasova this season and with Drew Gooden possibly returning, the pressure will be on him to produce in Atlanta.

Advantage: Hawks

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Jason Collins

Some how, some way, Collins has a productive game against the Bucks when these teams last met in Milwaukee.  He grabbed double digit rebounds for the first time in a long time and generally impacted the game way more than he ever should be able to against a team like Milwaukee.  Bogut will return after an illness fell him for the Nets game and Milwaukee needs not only for him to return, but to play well offensively again.  In four January games, Bogut is shooting just 39%, a bad number for a guard and an abysmal number for a post player with a team operating around him.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Corey Maggette, Earl Boykins, Larry Sanders, Jon Brockman, Drew Gooden and Chris Douglas-Roberts

vs.

Maurice Evans, Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford, Zaza Pachulia and Josh Powell

Milwaukee’s bench has been playing some of their finest basketball of the year as of late.  Boykins has been a godsend ever since Jennings went down, averaging 15.4 points per game in nine games.  CD-R and Maggette, as noted earlier, appear on the right track for the first time in a long time and even Brockman and Sanders have contributed in their energy roles lately.  Gooden’s return would likely leave Brockman or Sanders with the short straw with regards to minutes though.  Crawford is a feared scorer and Pachulia is never afraid to get nasty, but outside of them, Atlanta’s bench is lacking.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 97 – Hawks 92

Milwaukee’s strongest basketball of the season will get a stern test in the form of a Hawks team that’s won 10 straight at home.  Home court may not be much of an advantage Tuesday though, as the typically dead Phillips Arena will probably be virtually empty.  A snowstorm has struck down South and Atlanta is looking and feeling a lot more like Milwaukee than usual.  It could be the perfect time for the Bucks to get another big road win against a conference rival they know very well.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Mike Bibby

The two-headed point guard monster the Bucks have trotted out since the fall of Brandon Jennings has more than held its ground in the last two games.  Against the Kings, Dooling and Boykins combined to make 14 of 29 shots en route to scoring 33 points.  In Los Angeles, the numbers were 11 for 21 and 30 points.  Offensively, there’s been no drop off since the Portland game.  Dooling can hold up against nearly any point defensively too, and while Boykins gives up plenty of size, he makes up for it with his quickness and plays on a team that has Andrew Bogut.  It’s an awful lot to expect of Boykins to think he’ll continue to shoot the lights out, but so long as Dooling and he are able to avoid disastrous games on the same night, Milwaukee appears in capable hands.  You know the Bibby Story: shoots well, old, slow, gamer.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Joe Johnson

Johnson’s dealing with a numbers drop off this season, not quite to the depths to which Salmons has plummeted, but a fall from a higher peak indeed.  Johnson is shooting just 40.8% after having made better than 43% of his shots each of his previous seasons in Atlanta.  Salmons is still at just 37.8% himself so we’ve got quite a disappointing matchup on our hands.  Salmons seems close to capturing what he had last season, dropping six assists while looking fully engaged in each of the last two games.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward
Chris Douglas-Roberts vs. Marvin Williams

CD-R hasn’t been the dynamo he was in his first two starts in the last few games, but he still offers the threat of doing something positive offensively, which in itself is important.  Williams is long, rangy and seems to have firmly cemented the fact that his surprisingly effective 3-point shooting two seasons ago was just a fluke. CD-R is considerably more likely to have a meaningful impact on this game, which doesn’t say much about Atlanta’s number two pick in the Bogut draft.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Josh Smith

Smith appears to be a better 3-pointer shooter than Ilyasova, having hit 40% of his shots to Ilyasova’s 28.6%.  That’s a tad depressing, considering Smith had to remove that shot from his arsenal last season.  Despite his increased accuracy from long range, Smith’s shooting percentage has dropped a few points from last season, while the rest of his game appears to be exactly the same as it’s been over the past three or four years.  So much for development of a young player.  He’s still dangerous though.

Advantage: Hawks

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Al Horford

Our main event.  Horford will not go quietly on defense and will muscle Bogut as far off of his beloved blocks as he can.  Bogut will work to prevent the short jump shots Horford holds so dear.  They will do battle.  Both men are vying for a reserve spot behind Dwight Howard on the Eastern Conference all-star team and both have made a viable case this season.  Horford is being featured in Atlanta’s offense more than ever this season and has responded with very respectable numbers while maintaining a defensive presence.  Bogut’s been great in December and surely will get up for a big game Monday.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Earl Boykins, Corey Maggette, Luc Mbah a Moute, Jon Brockman and Larry Sanders

vs.

Jamal Crawford, Zaza Pachulia, Josh Powell and Jeff Teague

Milwaukee’s been delving into the depth of their bench without Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette lately, and that could change if either or both of them play.  Maggette seems more likely to return for Monday’s game, but both could play.  Sanders received extended minutes in Sacramento and responded with four blocks and an alley-oop, pretty much the best that can be expected of him.  Crawford is still an intense force of scoring energy off the bench while Pachulia does the same thing, except replace scoring with annoying the opposition’s big men.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Milwaukee 94 – Atlanta 92

This won’t be easy either way.  Milwaukee’s well rested and coming off a strong three game road trip out West.  The Bucks don’t have any easy games on the horizon, so home games become all the more important as they battle to get back to .500.  The Hawks are doing the same thing they’ve been doing the last few years, maintaining middle of the pack mediocrity in the East.  They won’t be advancing far in the playoffs, but they won’t be dropping out.  They don’t really have a crew that excels in one area enough to pull off a possible upset later in the season, but they have a crew solid enough to get them where they want to go initially.  Milwaukee’s defense should factor in heavily tonight.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-3

Date: 4/30/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN & FS Wisconsin

The Breakdown

By game six in a seven game playoff series, there are no secrets any more. Both teams know what their opponent wants to do, both teams know what their own teams must do to win. By game six, it simply comes down to which team’s will is stronger, who’s better at imposing their game on the opponent. Typically it’s a no-brainer in my mind that this is where talent comes out on top.

But it’s not that simple anymore.

Milwaukee has so blurred the lines of talent in this series, that I’m not sure we can truly measure the more talented team. The common perception thus far has been this series has been more Atlanta blowing it than Milwaukee taking it. I’m not buying that. Milwaukee isn’t a pretty team and they don’t have great offensive statistics, but what happened to that old axiom that defense and rebounding win when it slows down in the playoffs. Have we all forgotten that?

This series has been a testament to the difficulty we have in measuring defensive abilities and hustle. When Milwaukee holds Atlanta to at the rim shooting percentages of 48%, 41% and 58%, all under their season average of 63%, it still is spun more as Hawks missing layups rather than Milwaukee challenging them. Something changed after the first two games in this series and Milwaukee imposed their will on Atlanta.

So while we’ve seen all kinds of statistical advances over the last few years, we’re still not quite there yet. We can’t accurately measure each aspect of every game. Sometimes, you just have to see it to believe it. If you’ve watched the last three games of this series, I have a hard time you can honestly believe the Hawks are the superior team. 82 games worth of regular season data may indicate otherwise, but the playoffs are a different animal.

An animal the Bucks could tame this evening.

The Bench Must Rise Again

If role players truly do play better at home, Milwaukee shouldn’t have much of an issue in this one. After Luke Ridnour stepped up in game five, the Bucks will again look to their crew of castoffs for at least one big game. Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova, Ridnour, Jerry Stackhouse or even Dan Gadzuric will need to step up just one more time to serve as a pressure release for John Salmons and Brandon Jennings. I don’t believe in ancient history as much of a barometer, but if it is, Stackhouse may not be the guy to look to. Among active players, only Rajon Rondo (.373) has a lower career field-goal percentage in potential series clinching games than Stackhouse (.378). But that was the old, featured Jerry Stackhouse. Now he just needs to get to the line and, for the love of all things, try and watch the turnovers.

Stop the Break One More Time

Limiting transition success has been a remarkable boon for Milwaukee over the last few games. In game five, Atlanta was just 4-9 in transition, turning it over twice. The turnovers and low shooting percentage Milwaukee will take, those Josh Smith coast-to-coast dunks and layups, they could live without. The switch of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute onto Josh Smith may have been the move of the playoffs so far and Milwaukee’s general focus on contesting Atlanta at the rim every single time has done wonders for the Bucks.

Will the Star Shine?

A worry for Milwaukee has got to be Joe Johnson. The biggest star in this series, Johnson hasn’t taken over a game in that, “My team will NOT lose this game” type way all series. Is he capable? Physically, yes. But mentally, I’m not so sure. Johnson’s greatness is in his ability to do so many things, be a good rebounder and exceptional passer, not necessarily in his ability to dominate. Even if he does toss up 40+ points, that doesn’t automatically spell doom for the Bucks. Of the top five scoring efforts against the Bucks this season (Chris Bosh – 44, Kobe – 39 (Bucks loss), Captain Jack – 35, Monta Ellis – 33, Kevin Durant – 33 (Bucks loss)) only two of them came in Bucks losses. It will be more important to the Bucks to make sure Johnson doesn’t slap together some sort of 30/8/12 effort rather than just the big time scoring effort.

On This Date…

39 long years ago, the Milwaukee Bucks won an NBA title. An omen? We’ll see. But it can’t hurt, right?

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Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?

Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night.  Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net.  Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots.  One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed.  You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says,  “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”

A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though.  Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.

Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four.  The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.

Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.

After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?

Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.

When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one.

Offense

As he’s done in their victories, Brandon Jennings took a lead role once again. Flashing that streakiness that once elevated him to rock star status in his 55-point game, Jennings opened up the first quarter by scoring 12 consecutive Bucks points after the Hawks opened up an all-too-easy 11-6 lead. When Jennings gets hot it seems once again impossible to predict when he’ll let up. That’s what was so fun about Brandon Jennings earlier in the season. He had such control over every game and seemed to make every big shot when his team needed him. His confidence was high and everyone else’s confidence in him was even higher. During his extended drought that was known as “most of the regular season” it was easy to forget how fun that first month following Jennings was. He’s brought those good times back and done it at the best possible time.

• Milwaukee was 15-18 on free throws in the fourth quarter. On 25 separate occasions this season, the Bucks shot less than 18 free throws in an entire game. I think this says wonders about how bad Milwaukee wanted this one and their desire when it looked to be slipping away. The Bucks continuously attacked the rim as soon as Atlanta was in the penalty, knowing if they could just score some points their defense may be able to keep them in the game.

• As he’s done most of the season, Luke Ridnour brought his jump-shot with him to the game. Ridnour finished with 15 points (5-7 FG 1-1 3FG 4-4 FT) and four steals, reminding us all of how effective he’s been as a reserve this season. I figured at least one Bucks role player would have to step up and have a big game and Ridour did just that.

• Ersan Ilyasova’s two offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter were so delightfully Ersan that I almost can imagine John Hammond calling Larry Bird after they happened and saying, “See, that’s why I didn’t want to give him up for Troy Murphy.” Seven points and seven rebounds may look quiet, but Ersan sure played a very important part in this one.

Defense

How does a man end a game with a +21 +/- while attempting just one shot and going scoreless? Well, it’s actually a two part answer. Part one is he plays terrific defense and part two is his backups play generally horrible. That’s the story of Kurt Thomas on Wednesday. Al Horford may have scored 25 points, but just nine of them came with Thomas on the court. Horford wasn’t able to back Thomas down and get any easy looks the way he did when any combination of Primoz Brezec, Dan Gadzuric, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute were on him. His defense on an otherwise dominating Horford will deservedly take a backseat to the monster charge he drew on Joe Johnson, but it was a huge relief for everyone rooting for Milwaukee when he checked back in to slow Horford in the fourth quarter.

• Nearly as impressive as the job Thomas did on Horford was the one John Salmons did on Joe Johnson. With a forgettable performance brewing from Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford, the responsibility in this one fell on Johnson. Salmons couldn’t have made his life any more difficult in the fourth quarter, making him hit shots falling away from the hoop with a hand in his face and maneuver through double teams instead of into open space. Salmons work allows Mbah a Moute to nest inside of Josh Smith’s head and changes everything for the Bucks.

Final Thoughts

Milwaukee has blown through what typically justifies progress so quickly that I’m still a little stunned. There are supposed to be proper channels for these things. A few close games in this series should have led to some wins next year which then would lead to a series win or two the following year. But the Bucks have been terrifically impatient and appear to be unsatisfied with progress being a slow process. With game six already sold out on Friday, Milwaukee has a prime opportunity in front of them. Does this seem like the type of team to let something like that slip away?

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If it hadn’t been done before, and it’s probably foolish that it wasn’t, the word “can’t” was officially removed from the dictionary on the Milwaukee Bucks 2009-10 season. It’s uses were once prevalent. Milwaukee can’t get to the line. They can’t score inside without Andrew Bogut. Brandon Jennings can’t finish. The Bucks can’t hang with the Hawks in the playoffs.

Can’t, can’t, can’t, can’t. These Bucks seem to know not of this word. Every time the rest of the world decides they aren’t capable of doing something, they go on and do it anyway. Milwaukee shot 32 free throws Monday night. They outscored the Hawks in the paint 44-26. Jennings was 9-16 from the field and didn’t hit a 3-pointer.

And the Bucks tied up their first round series with the Hawks at two.

In front of a raucous crowd with only a few pockets of empty seats in a sold out Bradley Center, the Bucks squeezed every last drop of effort out of 10 different players and played as close to flawless a game as they have without Bogut. The Bucks, a team once known for their selfishness on the court and corrosive chemistry off of it, relied on the formula that’s been working for them all season: above average ball movement and a sense of togetherness I haven’t seen in Milwaukee.

Asked about this being one of those games the old Bucks used to lose, Jerry Stackhouse had a very appropriate answer after the game:

I don’t know any of them old Bucks teams.

Can’t? Not these Bucks, not yet.

Offense

That 44-26 edge in points in the paint I mentioned earlier was no joke, and it all started with Jennings. For the very first time in his NBA career, Jennings shot over 50% in a game in which he failed to connect on a 3-point basket. Time and time again his failures inside have been documented, but Jennings forgot all about those on Monday. He repeatedly got in the lane against the Hawks Monday night and converted. Coach Skiles had been harping that Bucks guards needed to do a better job attacking the Hawks bigger defenders on switches, and Jennings did just that all night. Not only was he converting his own shots, but he found Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for a few open layups inside with some sweet interior passing. 23 points (9-16 FG 0-3 3FG), six assists and one turnover for the “rookie”.

• Jennings was huge again, but Carlos Delfino stole the show early. Through three games, the chorus was the same, “if Delfino gets it going, the Bucks might be tough to beat.” Well, he got it going in a big way. Delfino had 13 in the first and never looked back. Carlos finished with 22 points (8-14 FG 6-8 3FG), one big dunk, four rebonds, three assists and a fresh batch of confidence. Delfino’s first three rattled around and hit virtually every part of the rim before nestling in the bottom of the net. His thoughts on it:

I’ll take it. For me personally, the ball falls through the net, I don’t know how, but I’ll take it.

• 55.1% shooting? Milwaukee hit 7-18 on 3-point attempts, not as sparkling as Atlanta’s 10-19 effort from deep, but won this one inside. When I say inside, I don’t mean Milwaukee was tossing it to Kurt Thomas or Dan Gadzuric on the block, though. Milwaukee was penetrating like they rarely had this year. John Salmons was consistent as ever in this field (22 points 6-9 FG 10-10 FT), but it was Jennings and Delfino and company who really took this part of their game to another level Monday night. When asked if a win without relying on 3-point attempts was a revelation, Coach Skiles had this to say:

The revelation is more how many free throws we shot. It’s important for us at some point early in the game, because we penetrate usually pretty well and are pretty unselfish, that we’ll get some open three looks early in the game. It could be any number of guys, but it’s important that somebody steps up and knocks a couple down early and gets us feeling good about ourselves offensively. That’s what happened with Carlos tonight.

Defense

You often hear about veterans and their tricks defensively, but it’s not always clear if it’s a myth that they actually have these tricks up their sleeves. Let me assure you, it’s no myth with Kurt Thomas. All night long, Thomas was prodding the Hawks with little forearms off the ball, physical play and extra long screens. When Hawks guards tried to blow through him, he’d go down. When Hawks players would penetrate, he’d go down. Thomas nestled inside the Hawks heads at some point and was laughing about it by the fourth quarter. He helped limit Al Horford to just eight points and eight rebounds on a night Horford fouled out. I asked Thomas about his tricks, only to see him start to beam like a proud parent before breaking out in laugh.

“That’s a part of the game. Do what you can, try to keep them guessing and not let them see the same defensive coverages every time and try to keep them on their toes.”

• I swear, at the end of the third quarter, everyone in the Bradley Center had forgotten about Dan Gadzuric’s contract and was just thrilled to see him on the court. In a classic Gadzurician moment, Danny G. blocked a Joe Johnson layup attempt out of bounds and then converted on a bunny that he almost fumbled away just before the final buzzer in the third quarter sounded. Gadz may have only had seven points, five rebounds and two blocks, but his energy was a catalyst for the Bucks in the first half and then again in third quarter in which they pushed their lead to 11.

• Josh Sm…BOOOOOOO

Jo….BOOOOOOO

It was that kind of night at the Bradley Center. Whenever, umm, a certain Hawks forward, caught the ball, a chorus of boos rained down like a nasty thunderstorm. He had a nice bounce back game, 20 points (7-11 FG 1-1 3FG 5-6 FT), nine rebounds, two steals and a block, but Milwaukee didn’t allow this certain athletic Hawks player to get his transition game going. His numbers looked good, but his impact was demonstratively smaller than it had been in the first couple games. Keeping him and the rest of the Hawks from running (just eight fast break points for Atlanta) when this one gets back to Atlanta will be huge.

Final Thoughts

Well, at this point, this is up in the air. We could have a series that features one home team win after the next, we could see Atlanta figure it out and win the next two or watch Milwaukee steal one on the road before finishing it out at home. Throw out the seeding, throw out the regular season and every game this series, it’s a best two out of three between two teams that know they can beat one another. Milwaukee will certainly savor a win in a game that Atlanta shot 47.5/52.6/85.7. While the Bucks were capable defensively, the Hawks were still able to have a pretty good night from the field. That tells Milwaukee if they play their game and hit their shots, they can survive even a good night from the Hawks. Confidence is high and it seems like the Bucks can’t wait to get to Atlanta.

I guess I’ll let a can’t slide right there.

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