So he’s still got it.

Good to know.  Now if everyone else on the Bucks can get it together, this might be a very different series than the masses (I’m raising my hand especially high on this) expected.

It’s fitting that Brandon Jennings donned the cape in game one of the Bucks playoff series.  After all, at the start of the season, he was the unknown variable. Coaches and teammates raved about his work in practice, but the pre-season didn’t indicate he’d be too significant a factor.  Then he exploded in his first month and everyone was on notice. After that, the peaks were rare and the valleys steep, but Jennings would still show occasional spark. Milwaukeeans had pegged him as their big game guy, everyone’s hope down the stretch.  Until John Salmons came along.  Salmons has been the flavor of the moment since his arrival in the Mil, but in the back of our collective minds, we all know Jennings is the franchise’s future. The hopes and dreams of this franchise rest on Jennings slim shoulders. And for some time, that’s been rocky. Sure, he had the great start, but had we placed a square peg in a round hole? Is the burden of star too much for him to bare? The regular season isn’t the place to find that answer.  No, that’s a test reserved for the end of the season, when the pressure is really on.

And Jennings appears to be on his way to passing with flying colors.

35 points (14-25 FG 4-6 3FG 2-4 FT), three rebounds and three assists.  Jennings had the largest percentage of his team’s points of any rookie ever making their playoff debut and scored the fourth most points for a rookie in their playoff debut.  In short, he turned back the clock to November.  About the only things missing was a win.

Which is kind of a big deal.

But, only kind of.  Look, I’d like the Bucks to win this series or even just a couple games as much as the next person, but it’s important to look at the bigger picture here.  The most important thing about getting to the playoffs this season was so the younger players, namely Jennings, could get the feel for it and even more important, a hunger for more. What would serve as a better motivator this off-season for him and the rest of the younger Bucks players than this taste of the post-season spotlight?  Next season, the Bucks should then come back stronger with a group that’s been working and now has post-season experience. By next October, Milwaukee should be ready to strive to surpass the semi-lofty expectations sure to be placed on them next season.

And it all starts here.

So that’s why I can’t put somewhat of a happy face on a performance that, at times, was borderline unwatchable.  Virtually everything about the first half was straight out of my worst case scenario booklet for this series.

So it’s a good thing I’m looking ahead.  And an even better thing that I think I really have something to look forward to. Read more…

Hawk watching has not been a big part of my life this basketball season.  Obviously my hands are a little bit tied with the Bucks playing as frequently as they are.  Fortunately, the TrueHoop Network has got me covered.  The Atlanta Hawks have a terrific blogger by the name of Bret Lagree.  He and I took the time to exchange emails about the upcoming Bucks-Hawks series.  I took a stab at some Hawks things, Bret gave his take on the Bucks and will filled in the gaps where the other wasn’t sure  It’s worth a look.  Part one is here at Bucksketball and be sure to check out part two at Hoopinion.

*******************************************

Bucksketball: So what’s with Joe Johnson covering Brandon Jennings? Does he frequently guard point guards? I was discussing this with someone at the last game, and with Chris Paul being out this season, I’d argue Johnson is probably the second best defensive point guard the Bucks have had the displeasure of seeing this season.

And why is Al Horford forcing Milwaukee point guards to shoot jump shots? He doesn’t get much national recognition, but he seems like a very good defender.

Hoopinion: Joe’s guarded point guards a lot. Not because he’s especially effective (though he does the best he can to use his length to make up for a relative lack of foot speed) but because the Hawks have used Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson and Mike Bibby at point guard alongside him. Backcourt defense is a big issue with this team, to the point that people were reasonably concerned that letting Flip Murray walk would hurt the defense. It hasn’t really (they’re still mediocre defensively), but that’s more to do with Josh Smith being healthy than with Bibby or Jamal Crawford even approaching competence.

In all seriousness, Horford might be the Hawks’ best perimeter defender. He moves his feet really well (this is why he commits so few fouls both in space and in the post) and understands that it’s far better to give up the 18-footer to guards than let them get past him. The downside to this (and the switching defense the Hawks use almost exclusively) is that, while Horford’s doing an admirably job on the perimeter against smaller, quicker players, Bibby or Crawford is forced to try and box out a bigger player once the shot goes up. The inversion of the defenders is the primary reason the Hawks are 24th in the league in DR%.

I think the Hawks would be fine with letting Bibby guard Jennings given Brandon’s struggles inside the arc this year and given the presence of Smith and Horford to complicate matters for him.

Let’s make that my first question for you. What’s up with Jennings making such a low percentage of his two-point attempts? 42.8% at the rim and 41.3% inside 10 feet (per Hoopdata and before last night’s game). Poor shot selection or poor finishing or both?

Bucksketball:  Johnson’s length has certainly been an issue for Jennings, who, as you’ve noted, has enough issues of his own.

Speaking as someone who’s seen nearly every game Jennings has played in this season, the best way I can explain his struggles inside is like this: he’s not very good in there (yet).

Sometimes it seems like Jennings is forcing the issue to get inside, maybe he’s reacting to everyone telling him to be more aggressive or maybe he gets tired of missing midrange jumpers, I don’t know. But he’s often driving and trying to get up shots against significantly larger defenders inside and he just doesn’t quite know how to react to them yet. It’s not so much that he’s always getting blocked, it’s just that he’s getting altered frequently. His floater comes and goes throughout games, it’s not consistent. For a consistent floater, I’d direct him (or anyone else) to Luke Ridnour. Ridnour’s got all kinds of floaters and runners that he has been hitting all year.

It’s funny that defense has been such an issue for Atlanta, because you’d never know it from their games against Milwaukee. They’ve been forcing the Bucks to live and die by the jumper, which is often a safe bet for the opposition.

I’m as curious about Jamal Crawford as you are about Jennings though. He’s supposed to be a clutch dynamo. The numbers don’t agree. Is he secretly making Hawks fans pull their hair out more than we know?

Hoopinion: Crawford’s the same player he’s always been. The reason he’s had such a useful season is context. His typical volume of devastating crossovers used only to create space to attempt 20-foot jump shots hasn’t really declined but, playing with good players, he’s been able to augment that with open shots his teammates create for him, especially corner threes that begin with Josh Smith or Joe Johnson drawing a double-team or screen-and-roll with Al Horford.

Since I believe that Kurt Thomas can guard Horford in the post without help and that Thomas is nowhere near as mobile as Bogut, I’d love to see the Hawks run lots of Crawford/Horford screen-and-roll. Do you think that’s a recipe for success for the Hawks?

The underpinning of Atlanta switching every screen is to keep opponents in front of them (as a team) that the individual defenders couldn’t be expected to keep in front of them. This is largely why the Hawks and Heat rarely play a competitive game though neither team dominates the series. If the Hawks just keep the Heat in front of them, Miami’s forced to take shots they would prefer to pass up and the Hawks romp. On the other hand, some night Daequan Cook might make 11 jump shots and the Hawks lack a Plan B defensively and can’t compete with Miami.

I’ve been impressed with Jennings defense on the ball but thought he didn’t pay nearly enough attention to Mike Bibby when Bibby didn’t have the ball Monday night. Agree or disagree? And, if you do agree, is that a weakness typical to his game?

I’d also like to hear your thoughts regarding how Skiles will use Mbah a Moute. I’m a huge admirer of his. I think he can trouble both Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, though, obviously, not at the same time. Who do you think he’ll spend more time matched up against?

*******************************************

Part two at Hoopinion.

My gut instinct tells me it’s the Hawks.

Joe Johnson is a star, right?  Stars win games late, that’s just how the NBA goes.  That’s what I’ve long assumed, that’s what I feel like I’ve witnessed time and time again.  Johnson must be the best late game player either team has, simply because he’s the best player in this series.

But do the numbers confirm that?  Thanks to the Clutch Stats feature at 82games.com, I was able to run some numbers to determine which players are most likely to get the ball down the stretch for each of these two teams in close games.  The numbers paint an interesting picture when determining which players should be trusted most down in close games this series and who should be giving the ball up at all costs.

	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	PCT of FGA Jumpers	eFG% Jumpers	PCT of FGA Inside	eFG% Inside
Atlanta Hawks
Joe Johnson	0.468	100	91.9	33	86	49.4	14	61.5
Jamal Crawford	0.245	58	86.2	29	81	22.1	19	50
Josh Smith	0.419	53	70	20	42	22.2	58	56
Mike Bibby	0.276	29	0	0	100%	37.6	0	0
Milwaukee Bucks
Brandon Jennings	0.369	110	91.3	46	78	48.1	22	30.4
John Salmons	0.385	43	90.9	22	72	55.4	28	27.3
Luke Ridnour	0.462	41	83.3	18	82	39.1	18	85.7
Ersan Ilyasova	0.500	37	68.8	16	63	55.0	37	58.3

• The numbers would indicate that the more Jamal Crawford shoots down the stretch in tight games, the better Bucks fans should feel.  I know Crawford has hit a few buzzer beaters this year, but I wonder how many he missed before hitting those?  It seems likely from looking at the numbers that the Hawks only needed game winners in those games because they hadn’t been making any shots before them. Crawford’s 24.5 FG% in the last five minutes of close games is down right awful.  Please, take all the shots you see fit Crawford. At the last couple Hawks-Bucks games, a local media member always wondered if this would be the game Crawford would shoot the Hawks out of or in to. He shot them out of the first game in Milwaukee and didn’t play in game two.  One can only hope, for the Bucks sake, that Crawford keeps shooting them out.

• John Salmons has the most bizarre split of any player in this series.  Salmons has been a sensational jump shooter down the homestretch of games. His eFG% on jumpers of 55.4 is even better than Joe Johnson’s.  But what’s going on once Salmons gets inside? Inside, Salmons numbers fall to 27.3 or Brandon Jennings type numbers (even Jennings is better!).  Considering Salmons is the one player on the Bucks that generally has the easiest time getting to the hoop, they’ll need him to improve on that figure drastically if they want to do more than just hang around in close games.

• Ersan Ilyasova has a pretty bad reputation as a lousy clutch player and it’s occasionally deserved.  But I think it’s based more on his early season adventures (remember that first Bulls game … I do) rather than his whole body of production.  The numbers indicate that Ilyasova has actually been pretty good in close games, even if his free throw shooting hasn’t been spectacular.

• Ahh, free throw shooting.  The one area where the Bucks really shine.  With Jennings and Salmons both over 90% late in games, if the Bucks do have a lead late, they can feel pretty good about protecting it if the game comes down to fouling.

So how does the star Joe Johnson fare?  His work is the most balanced and his sample size is pretty good.  I don’t want to over simplify, but the Hawks can probably feel pretty good about things whenever the ball is in his hands late in games.  Frequently overlooked as he may be, Johnson certainly is a star in this league and he’s very likely to show why throughout this series.

“Snap back to reality, oh there goes gravity.”

- Eminem

There are reasons inside this one big reason why the Bucks had all kinds of problems with the Hawks Monday night, but we all know there is one reason that looms large:

Andrew Bogut in street clothes.

The trickledown effects of Bogut being out appeared so severe Monday night, that I’m not sure I see any way the Bucks could be able to overcome them four times in seven games.  Of course, that’s what Milwaukee would need to do if they want to beat the Hawks in a playoff series.  And with the Bucks 104-96 loss Monday night, combined with the Heat’s two point victory over Philadelphia, it’s looking awfully likely that the Bucks will now end up playing Atlanta in the series this city wants to avoid.

The games are less fun, the Hawks aren’t very villainy and the Bucks chances seem infinitely lower against Atlanta.

Aside from the obvious reasons (he’s Milwaukee’s best player and best defender), why is Bogut’s absence magnified so greatly against the Hawks?  First, it’s the switching.  Oh my, the switching.  This is one thing that sets Atlanta apart as a defensive team and speaks to their versatility.  Any time Milwaukee runs a pick and roll, Atlanta straight up switches it.  If Kurt Thomas comes and sets a screen for Brandon Jennings, Al Horford will guard Jennings and Joe Johnson wil guard Thomas.  And it doesn’t leave Atlanta in a bad spot.  Horford is skilled enough as a perimeter defender that he makes it difficult for Jennings to get by him for an easy hoop.

Coach Scott Skiles wasn’t thrilled with his guards’ efforts in attacking in these situations.

“They’re switching centers onto our guards.  A pro guard has got to be able to go by a center and do something.  That’s the reality of it.  We took way too many jumpshots.  It’s something we’ve got to be much better at.  Nothing against Al or Zaza (Pachulia), but if those guys are switching onto point guards or two guards, you’ve got to make them pay.”

But with Josh Smith lurking in the shadows behind the big guys on the outside, getting by the bigs and to the rim with success is easier said than done.

“When you’re switching a guy and you got Josh Smith on you, you think you can just take him to the rack but, he’s a guy who can move and he’s a great shot-blocker.  It’s kind of real tough, we’re standing a lot on offense, not a lot of ball movement.”

So ball movement may be the answer?

“Well, you can’t just pass and keep going through.  You gotta try and attack but, you know, you got somebody under there and guys just keep rotating.  I think their length is unbelievable.  They’re like an AAU team. “

If only the Bucks had a way to exploit any mismatches they did have on these switches.  After all, Mike Bibby was on the court for 34 minutes, isn’t there a better way to attack him on the pick and roll.  Ah, that’s where Bogut’s injury comes into play again.  Sure, Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Ersan Ilyasova are all much bigger than Bibby, but how often are any of them looking to back a guy down?  The last time these teams met, I counted three separate occasions in which LRMAM either got the ball on a swing or grabbed an offensive rebound with Bibby on him and failed to attack.  Without Bogut, there are very few easy shots for the Bucks.

No, without Bogut, the Bucks are taking lots of long shots and looking at some long games ahead of them.  The reality is, life without Bogut isn’t going to be pretty for the Bucks come playoff time.  And this is just the start. Read more…

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 45-35

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 51-29

Date: 4/12/2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Mike Bibby

We’ve seen all of these before.  I wouldn’t expect much to change across the 1-3 spots.  The Hawks will still probably use more Jamal Crawford than Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson will still get his share of time covering Jennings.  If Milwaukee could find a way to get Jennings some positive momentum against the Hawks just in case these teams meet in the playoffs, that would be a delight.  That could mean playing Jennings and Ridnour together some more.  Of course, that creates quite a defensive mismatch for the Bucks.  This is just one of the many reasons I’d rather see Milwaukee play Boston in round one.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…