Seeing some Piston in Bucks Title Plan
Friday, July 2nd, 2010If you weren’t sure, you can now be certain: the Milwaukee Bucks think very highly of Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut. Oh, and it certainly doesn’t seem like John Hammond has forgotten where he’s come from.
At least that’s what the last two days seem to indicate.
In the last two days, the Bucks have reportedly come to long term deals with Drew Gooden (five years/$32 million) and John Salmons (five years/$39-44 million). Two players who certainly are good, but are few people’s idea of a third wheel on a championship winning team. I toss the lofty goal of winning a title out there because Hammond has been adamant since arriving in Milwaukee that his goal is to win a title here and nothing else. Milwaukee’s front office doesn’t have dreams of second round playoff exits dancing in their heads. They aren’t looking to max out as very good losers.
But they could be heading down that road if Jennings and Bogut don’t blossom into the stars they expect. (more…)
Why We Believed in the Michael Redd rumor
Wednesday, June 30th, 2010Even in deceit, lessons can be learned.
That’s what I’m taking out of the 20 minutes madness earlier today on Twitter when, for those precious 20 minutes, everyone thought Michael Redd may be heading out of town to make room for local boy Devin Harris. The trade (the supposed specifics of it aren’t worth mentioning anymore) turned out to be a hoax perpetrated by someone claiming to be New Jersey Nets reporter Dave D’Alessandro. As frustrating as this type of shenanigan is, it does further paint a picture in Milwaukee.
Any significant transformation of the Bucks roster this season will be coming in the form of a trade. And that trade would probably involve Michael Redd.
Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s very likely that Michael Redd will get traded this off-season. Teams rarely engage in salary dumps after the draft and before their next season. What kind of message is it to send to your fans if you’re organization is giving up on a season that has yet to start? The most likely scenario, is a team is looking to unload some contracts and free up future cap space by snagging Redd from the Bucks sometime after January next season. That’s how I envision the trade of Redd going down. But even more unlikely than Redd being traded this off season, is the thought that the Bucks will attempt to find another starter in the free agent market.
Despite some information that relied on the ultra unlikely scenario that Michael Redd opts out of his $18.3 million contract in ESPN’s Free Agent Dime, the Bucks won’t be getting a max free agent. If this point needed to be pounded in even further, the Bucks did that today when they picked up Carlos Delfino’s second year option. If the Bucks were interested in freeing up even more space to try and sign a free agent whose value suggests he would earn more than the mid-level exception, dropping Delfino and his $3.5 million contract would have been the way to go. That would have left Milwaukee with over $6 million to play with this off season before making offers to John Salmons and Luke Ridnour. The Bucks apparently felt Delfino was a better fit at the three for their current roster than anyone else they could have found on the open market.
As things stand now, Milwaukee’s biggest hole in their roster is at the shooting guard position. With Salmons in flux, Michael Redd seemingly on the way out or to the inactive list and not-so-perfect fits in Delfino and Chris Douglas-Roberts, the Bucks would probably be well served to find a way to bring in a two guard if Salmons doesn’t return. But if they’re looking for anyone who is more of a long term piece rather than a stop gap until more cap room opens up in 2011, look for it to be done via trade, rather than as a free agent signing.
The arrival of free agency and what it means for the Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, June 30th, 2010Beginning at 12:01 AM Thursday morning, NBA teams will be doing all kinds of embarrassing things in an attempt to lure free agents of varying talents to come spend their next three to five years with a brand new team. Email accounts for fans to write in saying how much they wish Player A would come to their team will be set up. Lavish airport ceremonies will be held. Expense accounts will explode. And in the end, a few guys will get overpaid and everyone will wish they could undo the whole thing before the player demands a trade and the organization laments the fact that they’ve made said player untradeable.
Good times. (more…)
Now Opting Out: John Salmons
Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010With the draft just two days away, the Bucks have reportedly received word about their key free agent this off-season. From the Twitter of Sam Amick at AOL Fanhouse:
Free Agency 2010 sleeper alert: John Salmons has notified Milwaukee that he will be opting out, according to a source close to him. Salmons and Bucks had extension talks, but – as previously reported – it was never likely he would go that route.
While this theoretically hurts the Bucks chances of resigning Salmons, it also probably helps the Bucks chances of avoiding a mistake. The reports were that the Bucks were offering Salmons a three year extension tacked onto the one year at $5.8 million Salmons had left for next season. Salmons turns 31 in December. This would have made Salmons a moderately highly paid Bucks player through his 34th birthday, when his production would likely be quite out of line with his salary.
Of course, Milwaukee wasn’t said to be throwing any crazy numbers out there at Salmons, we’re not talking $10 million a year or anything like that, but with the limited funds Milwaukee has available it’s important for them to be efficient with money. Longer contracts must be reserved for those in their early to late twenties.
Now that Salmons has opted out, there’s no guarantee Salmons will be able to score a fourth year. He’s no Trevor Ariza or Ron Artest, two players who scored long term deals last summer. Salmons isn’t young enough or skilled enough in one area to position himself on the market as especially desirable. His strong finish to last season with Milwaukee aside, Salmons has always been more of a role playing scorer. He’s now had two extended stretches in his career where he’s been a featured option on a team, the 2008-09 season and the second half of last season. Thinking that a 30-year-old John Salmons will be able to carry a significant load for a team for the next four years may be misguided.
Rumors have already flown around that the Hawks would be interested in Salmons as a Joe Johnson replacement if/when he leaves the nest and his versatility is somewhat reminiscent of a less talented version of Johnson, making that more feasible. But that may be a significantly misguided attempt at saving face by the Hawks. Salmons success in Milwaukee had a lot to do with the fit he was in the Bucks system and the freedom he appeared to be allowed offensively.
Whether Salmons receives an offer that knocks his socks off or now forces the Bucks to re-commit to a fourth year and more money will only be known in time. But if the Bucks decide to rescind the fourth year from their offer and thank John Salmons for the memories, he could have proved to done Milwaukee a big favor by turning down their extension.
A Preview of the Milwaukee Bucks and Free Agency
Wednesday, May 12th, 2010Salary returning for Milwaukee: $56,068,163 (Kudos to ShamSports.com for the numbers)
Salary Cap: $58-60 million
Luxury Tax Level: Between $70-75 million (Probably at least. The NBA out did their projections it sounds like, so I’d expect the luxury tax not to fall from its current amount: $69.920 million.)
Resignable Free Agents
Luke Ridnour
John Salmons
Kurt Thomas
Jerry Stackhouse
Royal Ivey
At this point, Stackhouse and Thomas are veteran’s minimum ($1,352,181) guys and I’d say it’s no better than 50/50 that either of them will return. They played nice roles this season, but counting on them next season to contribute as much as they did this season may be a recipe for disaster. Ridnour is looking at backup point guard money, which is also known as a huge pay cut. Teams have had great success recently with younger players at the point, and while this year’s draft is not as point guard rich as last season’s, he could feel the crunch in terms of his salary. The market value for Ridnour can’t be much higher than $3 million a season.
Salmons has an extension staring him in the face that would keep him at $5.8 million this next season. He’d be wise to accept a contract that gives him four more seasons of above mid-level money, but he wouldn’t be the first player to mistakenly assume he’s worth more than he is.
If Ridnour comes back at $3 million and Salmons does the same at $5.8 million, they’ll be looking at roughly $65 million in salary, and that’s before draft picks are factored in. If Milwaukee keeps each of their three draft picks, the roster will be at 14 players (factoring in Darnell Jackson), with Royal Ivey being a possible option for the fifteenth spot.
So, free agency? I’m thinking it won’t factor heavily into Milwaukee’s plans this off-season.
But trades? Trades may once again alter the Bucks landscape. Last summer they shook things up and locked up the NBA title for San Antonio by handing them Richard Jefferson on a silver platter. What’s that? Kurt Thomas had nearly the same PER as Jefferson in the playoffs (10.0-10.9)? Oh. It’s funny how that worked out. That bold move showed that John Hammond is not afraid to make big moves over the off-season rather than stand pat and hope for development.
Who could the Bucks have some interest in this off-season (and who would I like to see them have interest in in some of the cases)?
Josh Childress
Milwaukee flirted with Childress last off-season, but was unable to get anything done. To land Childress, Childress is still a restricted free agent and he makes roughly $7 million after taxes in Europe (over $10 million in NBA money), so the hurdles Milwaukee would need to get over to work out a deal with Childress would be significant. The Bucks would likely have to work out some kind of sign and trade with the Hawks, which can only happen if Childress does not sign an offer sheet with the Bucks. Childress was last seen in the NBA in 2007-08 and would fit the Bucks as a high percentage shooter with the ability to defend and do the little things Milwaukee loves so much.
Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is signed through 2013/14 for all kinds of crazy money, over $55 million. For the suddenly rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers, that doesn’t quite add up. If they could dump him for an expiring contract and a younger player, odds are they’d love to. Michael Redd and two draft picks may get the Sixers ear as a starting point. Iggy is versatile, a good defender, athletic and capable of hitting an open three. Unfortunately, Iggy has fallen for the three in the last three years (over 300 attempts in two of the past three years while shooting roughly 30%) and hasn’t fit as a leader on a once emerging Sixers squad. He’s naturally a better fit as a supporting player and he may be thrust into too large a role on the Bucks if they weren’t able to get another star wing. His contract simply won’t allow for him to ever be a good value, something Milwaukee needs to thrive on.
Carl Landry
John Hammond acknowledged he had interest in Landry at the trade deadline. The Kings hold the third pick in the draft, prime DeMarcus Cousins territory. Jason Thompson has three years left on his contract and Landry has one. All those signs add up to the possibility that Landry could be had. At $3 million next season, Landry is a very valuable player and an expiring contract. He’s not someone who eats the ball, but he is someone who can score efficiently. He’s precisely the kind of player who would fit in Milwaukee at the power forward spot.
Brandon Bass
In each of the next three seasons, Bass will make $4 million and likely sit behind Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat (if he’s kept), Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson. If Orlando wins the title this season, they may be interested in shedding just enough payroll to stay under the luxury tax, but no one of enough value to knock them from the league’s elite. Per 36 minutes this past season, Bass averaged 16 points while shooting over 50% from the field, grabbed 7.1 rebounds and blocked 1.5 shots. His numbers suggest he could be more productive, past his allotted salary even, if given more minutes. Perhaps a combination of second round picks and lesser salaries could balance and get Bass in Milwaukee. I’d love to see Bass in a Bucks uniform.
