Milwaukee's hopes may rest on Drew Gooden's wacky game. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

We know Andrew Bogut is going to be out (UPDATE: We now know it will be 8-to-12 weeks too. Damn). His ankle won’t unfracture quickly. Whether or not this torpedoes Milwaukee’s already fragile season largely depends on who replaces the majority of Bogut’s 30 minutes each night.

The early candidate is Drew Gooden. He will likely get the start in Bogut’s spot against the Chicago Bulls on Friday and Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday. For the time being, he’s Milwaukee’s best option for big minutes.

That isn’t saying much.

Last season, Gooden’s PER while playing the center position was 13.6, roughly six points lower than his PER at the power forward position. The numbers have remained consistent to last season this season. Gooden’s PER as a center this year is 13, while his PER at the four is 29. The smaller sample size for this season makes me hesitate a bit, but since they are consistent with last season, it seems to be a pattern worth recognizing as far as Gooden’s role on the Bucks is concerned, although Gooden did post an 18 PER while playing center with the Mavericks three seasons ago.

The aggressive, athletic Gooden can occasionally thrill, but he often seems to make the most simple parts of the game difficult. Many passes become no look ones. Pump fakes turn into foul drawing exhibitions. Suddenly, Gooden has developed a taste for the outside shot too, which is probably better than him shooting 22-foot jump shots, but isn’t an ideal shot for a starting center that has never demonstrated that range before.

An apparent general lack of attention to detail seems to make Gooden a less than ideal candidate as a back line defender. Simply, he isn’t the guy who erases the mistakes of his teammates. But if Gooden isn’t a perfect fit offensively and isn’t the defender Milwaukee thrives with, is there a better internal option to replace Bogut?

Nope.

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The Milwaukee Bucks may be Wisconsin’s pro basketball team, but it is far from being the premiere basketball program within the state. That honor would go to the Wisconsin Badgers men’s team (*ducks away from Marquette fans*). And the Bucks just drafted its favorite son, Jon Leuer.

With the 40^th pick of the draft, the Bucks selected the Wisconsin forward. This should come as no surprise. During Leuer’s Tuesday workout with Bucks first round draft pick Tobias Harris and other prospects, Bucks Director of Scouting Billy McKinney said of Leuer, “If he’s at 40, I think it’s kind of a no-brainer for us.”

Coach Scott Skiles also liked Leuer’s workout, “”One of the things Jon said, and it’s so true, is he’s more athletic than you think, and it comes across when you watch him play in a college game, but also the athletic testing in Chicago and then when you get him in a workout, he moves around really well.”

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We’ve been having something of a meeting of the minds over the past week here at Bucksketball.com regarding where the Milwaukee Bucks decision makers may want to direct their attention this coming off-season.  We’ll get the discussion rolling in part one and close it out in part two. – JS

Jeremy

What needs addressing this off-season the most?  I’d say shooting guard, and then I’d say it’s not even all that close.

82games.com makes the strongest empirical argument here, as Milwaukee’s collective PER at the shooting guard position this season was 11.4, while opponents managed a 13.5 PER against the Bucks at that position, leaving them with a net -2.1.  But anyone who has watched the Bucks over the past two years knows the importance of the two guard position and how much trouble it has caused the Bucks.

Before John Salmons arrival in the 2009-10 season, Charlie Bell logged the majority of the minutes there and could do little aside from harmlessly parade into the lane, representing no true threat to score or create.  He was a spot-up shooter being asked to do far too much.  And while we all forget it because the Bucks post-Samons trade impressed so much, Milwaukee’s offense was brutal for the first half of that season.  Virtually the only difference between that offense and the one that mucked up this past season was that team’s ability to hit some threes

Once Salmons arrived though, the onetime point guard brought to life the Bucks offense.  He drove as a threat: he could pass or finish equally as well.  The Bucks had shooters all around him, ready to capitalize off his drive and kick game.  With him dropping assists and scoring 20 points regularly, the Bucks offense flourished for the first time under Coach Scott Skiles.

So much of the Bucks offense starts out of the wing that it’s crucial they have someone creative and adept at scoring logging heavy minutes there

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• The Defense of Andrew Bogut

We all know the 2010-11 season wasn’t one completely lost like some Bucks seasons in the middle of the past decade.  This wasn’t a team hopeless on both sides of the ball.  A 102.5 defensive rating was good enough for fourth in the league and eighth in team history.  This was a team that often showed incredible chemistry defensively, only to come back down on the other end and look like they’d never met each other, let alone played basketball together.  How could this so frequently appear to be the case?

Andrew Bogut.

One way or another, Bogut finished defensive possessions as well as any center in the NBA not named Dwight Howard. Bogut became the first player not named Howard or Camby to lead the league in blocked shots since 2004-05.  Not only did he regularly toss away shots, but he kept them in bounds and posted a 27.1 defensive rebound rating.  Offensive possessions died in the hands of Bogut on a regular basis all season long.  Whenever a team has a sequoia like Bogut parked underneath the hoop, it allows perimeter defenders to play more aggressively.  That’s how guys like Carlos Delfino end up snatching up a career high 1.6 steals per game.

Milwaukee allowed 101.9 points per 100 possessions with Bogut on the court and saw that number drop to 105.5 when he watched from the sidelines.  For some perspective, that essentially is the difference between the yearly contender Bucks of the early 80s and the plucky overachieving, but not really good Bucks of Terry Porter’s first season.

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Goin’ alphabetical this season.  First half today, second half tomorrow.  Enjoy.

Earl Barron

Once finished a play
Coming out of timeout. Sad.
Clear role, in swamp O.

He was only in Milwaukee briefly, playing in seven March games, but he did well what he does.  He crashed the offensive glass and made mid-range jumpers.  He made seven of 16 shots from 16-23 feet and half of his 14 attempts at the rim.  On the Bucks, those qualified as stunning offensive numbers.  And it was a small sample size, but his 16% offensive rebound rate led the team.

Andrew Bogut

Kept on keeping on,
Through sickness and injury.
Offensive struggles.

So that was the season after the injury.  He struggled through the first few months, wore a bulky elbow pad and had us looking away as he missed free throw after free throw.  But he kept trotting out there every night, anchoring a terrific defense and occasionally contributing something offensively.  Next season will be an important one for Bogut.  It’s probably going to be the season where we all find out if he’s ever going to be an All-Star or not.  He’s had another surgery, it’s supposedly gone well and he should have most of the summer to work on his game.  Hopefully we’ll be able to tell in November.

Earl Boykins

Scores like a rabbit
Couldn’t be reliable.
Could be electric.

He won the Laker game.  And he did the same against the Kings.  And he did it a few more times, because that’s kind of what Earl Boykins does.  That’s why Boykins is such a quality third point guard.  He doesn’t need to play every night and won’t make much of a stink if he doesn’t.  But when he’s called on, Earl is ready.  That’s commendable.  On more than one occasion, Scott Skiles referred to Boykins as the best shooter on the team.  Unfortunately, it’s nearly impossible for him to get his shot off without a little bit of trickery or ball-handling involved.  And therein lies the reason Boykins is what he is: fun.
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