A Preview of the Milwaukee Bucks and Free Agency
Wednesday, May 12th, 2010Salary returning for Milwaukee: $56,068,163 (Kudos to ShamSports.com for the numbers)
Salary Cap: $58-60 million
Luxury Tax Level: Between $70-75 million (Probably at least. The NBA out did their projections it sounds like, so I’d expect the luxury tax not to fall from its current amount: $69.920 million.)
Resignable Free Agents
Luke Ridnour
John Salmons
Kurt Thomas
Jerry Stackhouse
Royal Ivey
At this point, Stackhouse and Thomas are veteran’s minimum ($1,352,181) guys and I’d say it’s no better than 50/50 that either of them will return. They played nice roles this season, but counting on them next season to contribute as much as they did this season may be a recipe for disaster. Ridnour is looking at backup point guard money, which is also known as a huge pay cut. Teams have had great success recently with younger players at the point, and while this year’s draft is not as point guard rich as last season’s, he could feel the crunch in terms of his salary. The market value for Ridnour can’t be much higher than $3 million a season.
Salmons has an extension staring him in the face that would keep him at $5.8 million this next season. He’d be wise to accept a contract that gives him four more seasons of above mid-level money, but he wouldn’t be the first player to mistakenly assume he’s worth more than he is.
If Ridnour comes back at $3 million and Salmons does the same at $5.8 million, they’ll be looking at roughly $65 million in salary, and that’s before draft picks are factored in. If Milwaukee keeps each of their three draft picks, the roster will be at 14 players (factoring in Darnell Jackson), with Royal Ivey being a possible option for the fifteenth spot.
So, free agency? I’m thinking it won’t factor heavily into Milwaukee’s plans this off-season.
But trades? Trades may once again alter the Bucks landscape. Last summer they shook things up and locked up the NBA title for San Antonio by handing them Richard Jefferson on a silver platter. What’s that? Kurt Thomas had nearly the same PER as Jefferson in the playoffs (10.0-10.9)? Oh. It’s funny how that worked out. That bold move showed that John Hammond is not afraid to make big moves over the off-season rather than stand pat and hope for development.
Who could the Bucks have some interest in this off-season (and who would I like to see them have interest in in some of the cases)?
Josh Childress
Milwaukee flirted with Childress last off-season, but was unable to get anything done. To land Childress, Childress is still a restricted free agent and he makes roughly $7 million after taxes in Europe (over $10 million in NBA money), so the hurdles Milwaukee would need to get over to work out a deal with Childress would be significant. The Bucks would likely have to work out some kind of sign and trade with the Hawks, which can only happen if Childress does not sign an offer sheet with the Bucks. Childress was last seen in the NBA in 2007-08 and would fit the Bucks as a high percentage shooter with the ability to defend and do the little things Milwaukee loves so much.
Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is signed through 2013/14 for all kinds of crazy money, over $55 million. For the suddenly rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers, that doesn’t quite add up. If they could dump him for an expiring contract and a younger player, odds are they’d love to. Michael Redd and two draft picks may get the Sixers ear as a starting point. Iggy is versatile, a good defender, athletic and capable of hitting an open three. Unfortunately, Iggy has fallen for the three in the last three years (over 300 attempts in two of the past three years while shooting roughly 30%) and hasn’t fit as a leader on a once emerging Sixers squad. He’s naturally a better fit as a supporting player and he may be thrust into too large a role on the Bucks if they weren’t able to get another star wing. His contract simply won’t allow for him to ever be a good value, something Milwaukee needs to thrive on.
Carl Landry
John Hammond acknowledged he had interest in Landry at the trade deadline. The Kings hold the third pick in the draft, prime DeMarcus Cousins territory. Jason Thompson has three years left on his contract and Landry has one. All those signs add up to the possibility that Landry could be had. At $3 million next season, Landry is a very valuable player and an expiring contract. He’s not someone who eats the ball, but he is someone who can score efficiently. He’s precisely the kind of player who would fit in Milwaukee at the power forward spot.
Brandon Bass
In each of the next three seasons, Bass will make $4 million and likely sit behind Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat (if he’s kept), Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson. If Orlando wins the title this season, they may be interested in shedding just enough payroll to stay under the luxury tax, but no one of enough value to knock them from the league’s elite. Per 36 minutes this past season, Bass averaged 16 points while shooting over 50% from the field, grabbed 7.1 rebounds and blocked 1.5 shots. His numbers suggest he could be more productive, past his allotted salary even, if given more minutes. Perhaps a combination of second round picks and lesser salaries could balance and get Bass in Milwaukee. I’d love to see Bass in a Bucks uniform.
Progress is supposed to be a slow process: Bucks 91 – Hawks 87
Thursday, April 29th, 2010Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?
Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night. Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net. Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots. One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed. You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says, “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”
A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though. Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.
Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four. The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.
Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.
After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?
Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.
When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one. (more…)
A Whole New Series: Bucks 111 – Hawks 104
Tuesday, April 27th, 2010
Check out the reaction by the Bucks bench. Priceless.
If it hadn’t been done before, and it’s probably foolish that it wasn’t, the word “can’t” was officially removed from the dictionary on the Milwaukee Bucks 2009-10 season. It’s uses were once prevalent. Milwaukee can’t get to the line. They can’t score inside without Andrew Bogut. Brandon Jennings can’t finish. The Bucks can’t hang with the Hawks in the playoffs.
Can’t, can’t, can’t, can’t. These Bucks seem to know not of this word. Every time the rest of the world decides they aren’t capable of doing something, they go on and do it anyway. Milwaukee shot 32 free throws Monday night. They outscored the Hawks in the paint 44-26. Jennings was 9-16 from the field and didn’t hit a 3-pointer.
And the Bucks tied up their first round series with the Hawks at two.
In front of a raucous crowd with only a few pockets of empty seats in a sold out Bradley Center, the Bucks squeezed every last drop of effort out of 10 different players and played as close to flawless a game as they have without Bogut. The Bucks, a team once known for their selfishness on the court and corrosive chemistry off of it, relied on the formula that’s been working for them all season: above average ball movement and a sense of togetherness I haven’t seen in Milwaukee.
Asked about this being one of those games the old Bucks used to lose, Jerry Stackhouse had a very appropriate answer after the game:
I don’t know any of them old Bucks teams.
Can’t? Not these Bucks, not yet. (more…)
Game 3 Preview: Well, if it’s going to happen…
Saturday, April 24th, 2010It might as well be tonight, right?
Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 0-2
vs.
Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-0
Date: 4/24/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN and FS Wisconsin
How in the world can the Bucks win this?
Take Advantage of Home Court
The Bucks haven’t played a meaningful home game this late in the year in nearly nine years. The Bradley Center crowd is going to want reasons to explode. Squad Six wants to get wild. Milwaukee trailed badly after the first quarter of game one and kind of bad in game two, another slow start could get the crowd out of it early and keep Atlanta’s confidence up. A fast start from Milwaukee could insert doubt into the minds of the Hawks. Atlanta was just 19-22 on the road this season.
It Ain’t Ova Till Ilyasova
Ersan Ilyasova is having a strong series and the cries to move him into the starting lineup have been getting louder. He’s averaging a double double at 12.5/10 and has a PER of 23.8. Even if he doesn’t start this one, he’ll certainly need to be on the court more than the 23.5 minutes he’s averaged so far this series. I know the Bucks value Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s defense very highly, but if he loses some minutes to make way for more Ersan, I don’t think anyone would have too much of a problem with that. It’s not like Ilyasova is a terrible defender. He gives great effort and rebounds the ball very well on the defensive end. He can’t possibly hurt the Bucks any more than they’ve been getting hurt.
The Bucks have outscored the Hawks by two points in the 48 minutes that Ersan Ilyasova has been on the court in this series. In the 48 minutes that Ilyasova has been on the bench in this series, the Bucks have been outscored by 22 points.
Time For ThomFino
Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino seem to be having some sort of secret competition for who can play worse this series. After both playing significant roles all season for Milwaukee, their play has fallen off a cliff. Perhaps age has caught up to Thomas and injuries to Delfino. Or maybe they both have just slumped at the wrong time. Whatever the case may be, Milwaukee needs to figure out if they can be fixed or if they need to be sat. Milwaukee simply can’t trot these two out for another 30 minutes each and get returns like they have the first two games
Thomas: 4.8 PER, 22.2 TS%, 7 PFs/4 PTS
Delfino: 5.1 PER, 35.5 TS%, 0-5 3FG
| Hawks | PPG | FG PCT. | RPG | BPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford | 17.5 | 55.6 | 8.5 | 4.0 |
| Josh Smith | 16.5 | 71.4 | 12.0 | 3.0 |
| Marvin Williams | 11.5 | 53.3 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Bucks | ||||
| LRMAM | 8.0 | 61.5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Delfino | 6.0 | 31.3 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Thomas | 2.0 | 22.2 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
Find A Way To Stop What’s Been Happening
The Hawks have been running like bulls in the first quarters of the last two games, turning Milwaukee turnovers into easy points. Their length on the perimeter has had Bucks guards dribbling away from the hoop and launching long passes all over the court. Predictably, the Hawks have feasted on these passes, turning them into easy scoring opportunities. Milwaukee needs to find a way to counter the Hawks aggressiveness, perhaps with a lineup free of LRMAM, to give Milwaukee five scoring threats at once. If Milwaukee can limit these instances and, as I’m been stressing, knock down a few more threes, a win remains possible.
Is Mike Bibby a real problem?
Monday, April 19th, 2010
Seemingly long removed from relevance, Bibby was still relevant enough to be featured in this commercial last year.
Seven years ago, Mike Bibby was certainly someone worth worrying about in a playoff series. Now, in 2010, I had written him off as a probable non-factor heading into the Bucks first round series with the Hawks. Bibby did have a meaningful impact on the last Bucks-Hawks game prior to the end of the regular season, but I assumed his short lived barrage of threes was just that: short lived.
But Bibby was back at it again in game one, scoring 19 points on 8-9 shooting (3-3 3FG). The obvious instinct is to look towards Brandon Jennings as the culprit for Bibby’s big day. He’s a rookie, his defensive reputation, while improving, remains up in the air and he had a big night scoring. So perhaps Jennings was taking the night off against Bibby and doing the Bucks a disservice.
But it’s not that simple.
Bibby scored just three baskets that were really the responsibility of Jennings and only one was an egregious error on the part of Jennings. After a missed layup by Josh Smith, Kurt Thomas grabbed the rebound and looked to outlet to Jennings. The crafty Bibby laid in wait and picked off the pass by reading Thomas’ eyes. Bibby dribbled into the right corner and set himself up for a three. Jennings, sulking a little after the turnover, was slow to get back to Bibby and did little more than jog over to him as he was releasing his shot. Bibby hit the three, the Hawks went up nine and the rout, as they say, was on.
But Jennings was only guarding Bibby on two more of his scores and he didn’t do a bad job. Bibby hit a difficult shot as ball handler on a pick and roll on one. On the other, Bibby pump faked a hard closing Jennings and saw him fly by as Bibby took a dribble and hit a shot over a helping out Jerry Stackhouse. It’s hard to be too concerned with Jennings defensive efforts there. And that’s how a lot of Bibby’s evening went.
A 43% shooter from 16-23 feet on the season, Bibby hit 4-5 shots from 17 to 19-feet Saturday evening. He hit a three over a leaping John Salmons off an inbound play in the corner and scored on a layup on another inbound play after a series of screens. That layup did remind me that Andrew Bogut wasn’t on the court though.
As Bibby turned the corner on Jerry Stackhouse off an Al Horford screen, Thomas was stationary was Stackhouse chased Bibby through the paint to the hoop. Were Andrew Bogut still prowling the middle of the floor for the Bucks, this shot likely would have been erased. Thomas simply wasn’t mobile enough to make the quick move to jump off Horford fading out towards the arc and attack Bibby at the rim. Thomas’ mobility actually came into question a number of times against Bibby, as he isn’t really able to hedge on screens and contest shooters on the pick and roll. When Thomas is involved in the pick and roll as the defender of the screener, he does a very good job of stopping the screener from getting a clean look on the roll, but often the result is an open jump-shot for the ball handler that Thomas can’t do much about.
It’s a tough spot, but it makes sense for the Bucks to gamble that Bibby, or often times Jamal Crawford, won’t make or take the long two.
Game one just happened to be one of those days in which Bibby got hot. It seems unlikely he’ll be able to replicate his effort and if he does, at least the Bucks went down making one of the lesser Hawks shoot them out of it. I think they’ll live with that.
