Enemy: By the Horns

Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Derrick Rose

Rose has been something of a monster this year.  He’s visibly improved in every aspect of the game, from defense to 3-point shooting to passing.  He’s looking every bit like a former number one pick and is a safe bet to wreak all kinds of havoc on the Bucks makeshift point guard unit of Dooling and Earl Boykins.  The shakiest part of his game offensively is the in-between space of 10-15 feet.  Last season he shot 50% from that range, but he’s down to just 31% this year.  Milwaukee has to run him off the 3-point line and keep him from getting all the way to the cup.  Defending Dooling will start with Dooling and end with Bogut.

Advantage: Bulls Read more…

I’ve seen a few things this pre-season I didn’t expect.  Most of them involve how well John Wall played when Milwaukee squared off against Washington, but some have actually involved the Bucks.  The re-appearance of Brian Skinner is on that list, as is Tiny Gallon’s inability to outlast Chris Kramer for a spot in Bucks training camp.  Topping the list though, is Drew Gooden taking not one, but two charges in the Wizards game.  Charges are as good as a blocked shot and in some cases even better, as not all blocks mean the switching of possession.  They’re a good thing.  Unless they’re occurring more and more frequently because a team is woefully undersized.  Then they could be a sign of trouble.

Last season, Gooden took 13 charges, one over the league average of 12.  If Gooden is able to position himself effectively, he could see his totals soar this season as opponents hurry to make a move before shot-blocker Andrew Bogut moves into a position to block a shot as a help side defender. Gooden’s reputation as an offensive player who tries hard on defense and loses himself frequently on both ends of the court precedes him, but let’s toss that out the window for a moment.  The early returns this season on a group that’s yet to be at full strength haven’t been strong, but I’m beginning to think that Gooden really may be the missing piece that propels the Bucks to the very top of the league defensively this year.

So, yeah, you could say I was pretty fired up about those charges.  It wasn’t just the fact that he made a stop via a charge though.  It was his awareness and his ability to read the offense to get himself in the right position to make a play.  That’s what the Bucks had to do a lot last season.

One thing the 2009-10 Bucks did especially well was take charges.  With 222 charges taken, Milwaukee ranked second in the league behind Houston (252).  Andrew Bogut, 51, and Ersan Ilyasova, 47, were second and sixth in the league respectively among individual players and new addition Corey Maggette was third amongst all small forwards with 27.  The additions Milwaukee’s made and players they have returning has them shaping up nicely in the charges taken department.

Oddly enough, even though I was thrilled with Gooden drawing charges, it’s the fact that he probably won’t draw anywhere near as many charges as Ilyasova did last season that has me thinking Milwaukee’s defensive numbers are going to look better this year. Read more…

Salary returning for Milwaukee: $56,068,163 (Kudos to ShamSports.com for the numbers)
Salary Cap: $58-60 million
Luxury Tax Level: Between $70-75 million (Probably at least. The NBA out did their projections it sounds like, so I’d expect the luxury tax not to fall from its current amount: $69.920 million.)

Resignable Free Agents
Luke Ridnour
John Salmons
Kurt Thomas
Jerry Stackhouse
Royal Ivey

At this point, Stackhouse and Thomas are veteran’s minimum ($1,352,181) guys and I’d say it’s no better than 50/50 that either of them will return. They played nice roles this season, but counting on them next season to contribute as much as they did this season may be a recipe for disaster. Ridnour is looking at backup point guard money, which is also known as a huge pay cut. Teams have had great success recently with younger players at the point, and while this year’s draft is not as point guard rich as last season’s, he could feel the crunch in terms of his salary. The market value for Ridnour can’t be much higher than $3 million a season.

Salmons has an extension staring him in the face that would keep him at $5.8 million this next season. He’d be wise to accept a contract that gives him four more seasons of above mid-level money, but he wouldn’t be the first player to mistakenly assume he’s worth more than he is.

If Ridnour comes back at $3 million and Salmons does the same at $5.8 million, they’ll be looking at roughly $65 million in salary, and that’s before draft picks are factored in. If Milwaukee keeps each of their three draft picks, the roster will be at 14 players (factoring in Darnell Jackson), with Royal Ivey being a possible option for the fifteenth spot.

So, free agency? I’m thinking it won’t factor heavily into Milwaukee’s plans this off-season.

But trades? Trades may once again alter the Bucks landscape. Last summer they shook things up and locked up the NBA title for San Antonio by handing them Richard Jefferson on a silver platter. What’s that? Kurt Thomas had nearly the same PER as Jefferson in the playoffs (10.0-10.9)? Oh. It’s funny how that worked out. That bold move showed that John Hammond is not afraid to make big moves over the off-season rather than stand pat and hope for development.

Who could the Bucks have some interest in this off-season (and who would I like to see them have interest in in some of the cases)?

Josh Childress
Milwaukee flirted with Childress last off-season, but was unable to get anything done. To land Childress, Childress is still a restricted free agent and he makes roughly $7 million after taxes in Europe (over $10 million in NBA money), so the hurdles Milwaukee would need to get over to work out a deal with Childress would be significant. The Bucks would likely have to work out some kind of sign and trade with the Hawks, which can only happen if Childress does not sign an offer sheet with the Bucks. Childress was last seen in the NBA in 2007-08 and would fit the Bucks as a high percentage shooter with the ability to defend and do the little things Milwaukee loves so much.

Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is signed through 2013/14 for all kinds of crazy money, over $55 million. For the suddenly rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers, that doesn’t quite add up. If they could dump him for an expiring contract and a younger player, odds are they’d love to. Michael Redd and two draft picks may get the Sixers ear as a starting point. Iggy is versatile, a good defender, athletic and capable of hitting an open three. Unfortunately, Iggy has fallen for the three in the last three years (over 300 attempts in two of the past three years while shooting roughly 30%) and hasn’t fit as a leader on a once emerging Sixers squad. He’s naturally a better fit as a supporting player and he may be thrust into too large a role on the Bucks if they weren’t able to get another star wing. His contract simply won’t allow for him to ever be a good value, something Milwaukee needs to thrive on.

Carl Landry
John Hammond acknowledged he had interest in Landry at the trade deadline. The Kings hold the third pick in the draft, prime DeMarcus Cousins territory. Jason Thompson has three years left on his contract and Landry has one. All those signs add up to the possibility that Landry could be had. At $3 million next season, Landry is a very valuable player and an expiring contract. He’s not someone who eats the ball, but he is someone who can score efficiently. He’s precisely the kind of player who would fit in Milwaukee at the power forward spot.

Brandon Bass
In each of the next three seasons, Bass will make $4 million and likely sit behind Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat (if he’s kept), Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson. If Orlando wins the title this season, they may be interested in shedding just enough payroll to stay under the luxury tax, but no one of enough value to knock them from the league’s elite. Per 36 minutes this past season, Bass averaged 16 points while shooting over 50% from the field, grabbed 7.1 rebounds and blocked 1.5 shots. His numbers suggest he could be more productive, past his allotted salary even, if given more minutes. Perhaps a combination of second round picks and lesser salaries could balance and get Bass in Milwaukee. I’d love to see Bass in a Bucks uniform.

Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?

Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night.  Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net.  Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots.  One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed.  You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says,  “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”

A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though.  Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.

Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four.  The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.

Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.

After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?

Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.

When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one. Read more…

Check out the reaction by the Bucks bench. Priceless.

If it hadn’t been done before, and it’s probably foolish that it wasn’t, the word “can’t” was officially removed from the dictionary on the Milwaukee Bucks 2009-10 season. It’s uses were once prevalent. Milwaukee can’t get to the line. They can’t score inside without Andrew Bogut. Brandon Jennings can’t finish. The Bucks can’t hang with the Hawks in the playoffs.

Can’t, can’t, can’t, can’t. These Bucks seem to know not of this word. Every time the rest of the world decides they aren’t capable of doing something, they go on and do it anyway. Milwaukee shot 32 free throws Monday night. They outscored the Hawks in the paint 44-26. Jennings was 9-16 from the field and didn’t hit a 3-pointer.

And the Bucks tied up their first round series with the Hawks at two.

In front of a raucous crowd with only a few pockets of empty seats in a sold out Bradley Center, the Bucks squeezed every last drop of effort out of 10 different players and played as close to flawless a game as they have without Bogut. The Bucks, a team once known for their selfishness on the court and corrosive chemistry off of it, relied on the formula that’s been working for them all season: above average ball movement and a sense of togetherness I haven’t seen in Milwaukee.

Asked about this being one of those games the old Bucks used to lose, Jerry Stackhouse had a very appropriate answer after the game:

I don’t know any of them old Bucks teams.

Can’t? Not these Bucks, not yet. Read more…