Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Derrick Rose

Rose has been something of a monster this year.  He’s visibly improved in every aspect of the game, from defense to 3-point shooting to passing.  He’s looking every bit like a former number one pick and is a safe bet to wreak all kinds of havoc on the Bucks makeshift point guard unit of Dooling and Earl Boykins.  The shakiest part of his game offensively is the in-between space of 10-15 feet.  Last season he shot 50% from that range, but he’s down to just 31% this year.  Milwaukee has to run him off the 3-point line and keep him from getting all the way to the cup.  Defending Dooling will start with Dooling and end with Bogut.

Advantage: Bulls

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Keith Bogans

While Salmons is a mystery man, capable of all kinds of different nights, it’s a pretty safe bet what we’ll get out of Bogans this evening.  Once a very competent 3-point shooter, he’s hitting just 30% from deep this season and the rest of his offense is no better.  Bogans will simply be in to make Salmons work for his points and try and prevent him from getting clean looks off screens.

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward
Chris Douglas-Roberts vs. Luol Deng

CD-R may head back to the bench after a rough defensive outing against the Hawks.  Deng isn’t the same level athlete as Josh Smith, a player that gave Milwaukee problems Monday, but he’s still a very good athlete and a much better 3-point shooter.  Deng’s 3-point percentage is up around 39% this season and he’s still doing a lot of the other things that make him such a good player.  He gave the Bucks fits with his rebounding last season and could very well do the same in Chicago Tuesday night, as the Bucks have struggled mightily on the glass lately.

Advantage: Bulls

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Carlos Boozer

The matchup between Ilyasova and Boozer paints a larger picture of the differences between Chicago and Milwaukee right now.  The Bulls have guys like Boozer and Rose, players they can rely on every night.  Nobody is perfect, but eight out of 10 nights, Boozer and Rose will both have above average games, it’s a given.  Ilyasova on the other hand, it completely unpredictable.  Sure, he could have a good game against the Bulls, but he could go scoreless too.  Maybe he could even put together four or five straight strong games, but everyone knows it isn’t sustainable.  Milwaukee’s biggest problem right now comes with that lack of sustainability.  Boozer will have something like 20 and 10 tonight, but I could never predict what Ilyasova will do.

Advantage: Bulls

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Kurt Thomas

Joakim Noah’s injury most significantly hurts the Bulls in terms of rebounding.  Thomas, try as he will, is a much less capable rebounder than Noah.  Milwaukee’s been struggling some on the glass of late, so the presence of Noah could have really paid off for Chicago on the offensive end.  Thomas spent a season playing with Bogut last year, so he no doubt knows where Bogut likes the ball and will do his best to keep him off his spots.  Bogut is significantly more talented than Thomas though, and should be able to score effectively more often than not.  He’ll likely be looking to rebound after a poor outing against the Hawks.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Jon Brockman, Corey Maggette, Luc Mbah a Moute, Earl Boykins and Larry Sanders

vs.

Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson, Omer Asik and CJ Watson

Korver can shoot, Brewer can drive, Watson can run a team, Gibson can defend and rebound and Asik is a big body.  The roles of the Chicago bench players are clearly defined and based around their talents.  Most importantly, they work well with each other and the starters.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s bench is in a constant state of flux thanks to injuries and inconsistent performances across the board.  Maggette flashed some effective offense again against the Hawks, but he generally comes in and stalls up the offense.  Worse, Milwaukee lacks barely any 3-point shooting off the bench.

Advantage: Bulls

Prediction: Bulls 89 – Bucks 78

Who am I kidding though?  Milwaukee is so unpredictable, that it wouldn’t shock me to see them drop 100 and win or drop 68 and lose.  The Bucks are very sporadic.  Chicago is consistent enough though that they should be able to take care of the Bucks with relative ease.  It’s rare Milwaukee matches up with a team that’s better defensively, and that’s the case in the Windy City.  Milwaukee likely won’t be able to ride their defense to the finish line in this one, they’ll need to find a way to produce some points if they want to stay with the Bulls.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Last season, Gooden took 13 charges, one over the league average of 12.  If Gooden is able to position himself effectively, he could see his totals soar this season as opponents hurry to make a move before shot-blocker Andrew Bogut moves into a position to block a shot as a help side defender. Gooden’s reputation as an offensive player who tries hard on defense and loses himself frequently on both ends of the court precedes him, but let’s toss that out the window for a moment.  The early returns this season on a group that’s yet to be at full strength haven’t been strong, but I’m beginning to think that Gooden really may be the missing piece that propels the Bucks to the very top of the league defensively this year.

So, yeah, you could say I was pretty fired up about those charges.  It wasn’t just the fact that he made a stop via a charge though.  It was his awareness and his ability to read the offense to get himself in the right position to make a play.  That’s what the Bucks had to do a lot last season.

One thing the 2009-10 Bucks did especially well was take charges.  With 222 charges taken, Milwaukee ranked second in the league behind Houston (252).  Andrew Bogut, 51, and Ersan Ilyasova, 47, were second and sixth in the league respectively among individual players and new addition Corey Maggette was third amongst all small forwards with 27.  The additions Milwaukee’s made and players they have returning has them shaping up nicely in the charges taken department.

Oddly enough, even though I was thrilled with Gooden drawing charges, it’s the fact that he probably won’t draw anywhere near as many charges as Ilyasova did last season that has me thinking Milwaukee’s defensive numbers are going to look better this year.

As nice as forcing a turnover through a charge is, there’s no clear indication that big charge totals have much to do with defensive success.  I like them, I think they are useful, but when the Golden State Warriors rack up the fourth most, I become skepticl.  Teams employ a variety of strategies when it comes to defending the paint and depending on personnel, must adapt.  Milwaukee’s reliance on the charge may have had something to do with less than ideal personnel.

Ilyasova’s total was great, but he gives up a lot of size to a lot of power forwards and can really get over matched defensively.  A lot of times he had to resort to establishing position and hoping he’d get a call simply because he wasn’t athletic or big enough to compete down low. The same was true for Bucks eventual starting center Kurt Thomas.  Milwaukee was undermanned and undersized in the paint.  Per 36 minutes last season, Ilyasova averaged 4.8 fouls and Thomas averaged 5.5.  A lot was made of Milwaukee’s inability to get to the free throw line last season, but their propensity for helping set up camp for the other teams at the stripe was as much of a problem.  The Bucks were 4th in the league at season’s end in free throws allowed.

Gooden could be part of the Bucks solution there.  For his career, Gooden averages just 3.5 fouls per 36 minutes and at 6-foot-10, 250 pounds, he beefs up Milwaukee’s front line considerably.  While he’s nothing special as a shot-blocker, just .7 per game in his career and only four in six games this pre-season, Gooden should be able to stick with any power forward in the league.  I’m not saying he’s going to suddenly be an All-NBA defender, but Gooden will have a lot of room for error with Bogut behind him and, in addition to his strength, has the quickness Ilyasova lacks.  Not too many power forwards in the league will be able to blow by or over power Gooden with ease.

Coach Scott Skiles has indicated that he wants this group to be among the top three in the NBA defensively.  What exactly he’s referring to is a mystery, as the Bucks were second in the league in defensive rating last season at 103.1.  He surely wants to see fewer points allowed than last season (96.0 per game) and opponents shooting a lower percentage than last season’s 45.1%.

There is room for improvement in Milwaukee and they acquired the players they did with these ideas in mind.  Gooden should be a help defensively and it would not be surprising to see the Bucks lead the NBA in defensive rating this season and succeed in improving on opponents points per game and shooting percentage.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.   Then become a fan of Bucksketball on Facebook (click in the sidebar).

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Resignable Free Agents
Luke Ridnour
John Salmons
Kurt Thomas
Jerry Stackhouse
Royal Ivey

At this point, Stackhouse and Thomas are veteran’s minimum ($1,352,181) guys and I’d say it’s no better than 50/50 that either of them will return. They played nice roles this season, but counting on them next season to contribute as much as they did this season may be a recipe for disaster. Ridnour is looking at backup point guard money, which is also known as a huge pay cut. Teams have had great success recently with younger players at the point, and while this year’s draft is not as point guard rich as last season’s, he could feel the crunch in terms of his salary. The market value for Ridnour can’t be much higher than $3 million a season.

Salmons has an extension staring him in the face that would keep him at $5.8 million this next season. He’d be wise to accept a contract that gives him four more seasons of above mid-level money, but he wouldn’t be the first player to mistakenly assume he’s worth more than he is.

If Ridnour comes back at $3 million and Salmons does the same at $5.8 million, they’ll be looking at roughly $65 million in salary, and that’s before draft picks are factored in. If Milwaukee keeps each of their three draft picks, the roster will be at 14 players (factoring in Darnell Jackson), with Royal Ivey being a possible option for the fifteenth spot.

So, free agency? I’m thinking it won’t factor heavily into Milwaukee’s plans this off-season.

But trades? Trades may once again alter the Bucks landscape. Last summer they shook things up and locked up the NBA title for San Antonio by handing them Richard Jefferson on a silver platter. What’s that? Kurt Thomas had nearly the same PER as Jefferson in the playoffs (10.0-10.9)? Oh. It’s funny how that worked out. That bold move showed that John Hammond is not afraid to make big moves over the off-season rather than stand pat and hope for development.

Who could the Bucks have some interest in this off-season (and who would I like to see them have interest in in some of the cases)?

Josh Childress
Milwaukee flirted with Childress last off-season, but was unable to get anything done. To land Childress, Childress is still a restricted free agent and he makes roughly $7 million after taxes in Europe (over $10 million in NBA money), so the hurdles Milwaukee would need to get over to work out a deal with Childress would be significant. The Bucks would likely have to work out some kind of sign and trade with the Hawks, which can only happen if Childress does not sign an offer sheet with the Bucks. Childress was last seen in the NBA in 2007-08 and would fit the Bucks as a high percentage shooter with the ability to defend and do the little things Milwaukee loves so much.

Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is signed through 2013/14 for all kinds of crazy money, over $55 million. For the suddenly rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers, that doesn’t quite add up. If they could dump him for an expiring contract and a younger player, odds are they’d love to. Michael Redd and two draft picks may get the Sixers ear as a starting point. Iggy is versatile, a good defender, athletic and capable of hitting an open three. Unfortunately, Iggy has fallen for the three in the last three years (over 300 attempts in two of the past three years while shooting roughly 30%) and hasn’t fit as a leader on a once emerging Sixers squad. He’s naturally a better fit as a supporting player and he may be thrust into too large a role on the Bucks if they weren’t able to get another star wing. His contract simply won’t allow for him to ever be a good value, something Milwaukee needs to thrive on.

Carl Landry
John Hammond acknowledged he had interest in Landry at the trade deadline. The Kings hold the third pick in the draft, prime DeMarcus Cousins territory. Jason Thompson has three years left on his contract and Landry has one. All those signs add up to the possibility that Landry could be had. At $3 million next season, Landry is a very valuable player and an expiring contract. He’s not someone who eats the ball, but he is someone who can score efficiently. He’s precisely the kind of player who would fit in Milwaukee at the power forward spot.

Brandon Bass
In each of the next three seasons, Bass will make $4 million and likely sit behind Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat (if he’s kept), Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson. If Orlando wins the title this season, they may be interested in shedding just enough payroll to stay under the luxury tax, but no one of enough value to knock them from the league’s elite. Per 36 minutes this past season, Bass averaged 16 points while shooting over 50% from the field, grabbed 7.1 rebounds and blocked 1.5 shots. His numbers suggest he could be more productive, past his allotted salary even, if given more minutes. Perhaps a combination of second round picks and lesser salaries could balance and get Bass in Milwaukee. I’d love to see Bass in a Bucks uniform.

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Isn’t it funny how a matter of moments can alter the perception of one shot?

Along with many others that joined me on Wednesday evening’s Daily Dime Live, I thought Josh Smith had finished off the Bucks with just over four minutes to go Wednesday night.  Smith faded a little bit from the top of the key and drilled a long perimeter shot that I’d been very enthused about from the moment it left his hand until the second I realized it dropped through the bottom of the net.  Josh Smith simply isn’t supposed to hit those shots.  One of those consensuses that form when this kind of things happens quickly formed.  You know what I mean, where everyone collectively says,  “Well, if he’s hitting those kinds of shots, the Bucks are doomed.”

A few voices did manage to get their dissenting thoughts out there though.  Perhaps it would be a good thing for the Bucks that Smith hit a long shot. It may persuade him to try hitting another unlikely jumper later. I just didn’t feel there was enough time for any of that to matter though. The Bucks were down more possessions than there were minutes left on the clock, that’s never a recipe for success.

Then John Salmons put together five points in less than 48 seconds and the lead was down to four.  The shot still lingered in the back of my mind, but it remained buried since Joe Johnson would very likely be the guy with the ball in his hands for Atlanta as this game wound down.

Except he didn’t get the ball, because he committed two fouls in the next 29 seconds and was relegated to cheerleader duty for the rest of the contest. Sandwiched between those Johnson fouls were three more Milwaukee free throws and suddenly the Bucks had the ball down only a point.

After Ersan Ilyasova caught a pass and scored over Smith in the lane to give the Bucks a one point lead with just under two minutes to go, the Bucks had the lead and the Hawks didn’t even have a leader. Where would they turn?

Well it’s a funny thing that happened. Maybe that shot that I had previously assumed finished off the Bucks was still fresh in Smith’s memory, or maybe it wasn’t, either way Smith took another shot that he had no business taking, a three with eight seconds left on the shot clock. Smith predictably missed and Al Horford rushed a shot attempt after controlling the offensive rebound. The Hawks were rattled. The Bucks were rolling and wouldn’t look back.

When it was all said and done, Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run after that Josh Smith jump-shot that worried me so. The very shot that I thought may have ended the Bucks season has them on the brink of an upset in round one.

Offense

As he’s done in their victories, Brandon Jennings took a lead role once again. Flashing that streakiness that once elevated him to rock star status in his 55-point game, Jennings opened up the first quarter by scoring 12 consecutive Bucks points after the Hawks opened up an all-too-easy 11-6 lead. When Jennings gets hot it seems once again impossible to predict when he’ll let up. That’s what was so fun about Brandon Jennings earlier in the season. He had such control over every game and seemed to make every big shot when his team needed him. His confidence was high and everyone else’s confidence in him was even higher. During his extended drought that was known as “most of the regular season” it was easy to forget how fun that first month following Jennings was. He’s brought those good times back and done it at the best possible time.

• Milwaukee was 15-18 on free throws in the fourth quarter. On 25 separate occasions this season, the Bucks shot less than 18 free throws in an entire game. I think this says wonders about how bad Milwaukee wanted this one and their desire when it looked to be slipping away. The Bucks continuously attacked the rim as soon as Atlanta was in the penalty, knowing if they could just score some points their defense may be able to keep them in the game.

• As he’s done most of the season, Luke Ridnour brought his jump-shot with him to the game. Ridnour finished with 15 points (5-7 FG 1-1 3FG 4-4 FT) and four steals, reminding us all of how effective he’s been as a reserve this season. I figured at least one Bucks role player would have to step up and have a big game and Ridour did just that.

• Ersan Ilyasova’s two offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter were so delightfully Ersan that I almost can imagine John Hammond calling Larry Bird after they happened and saying, “See, that’s why I didn’t want to give him up for Troy Murphy.” Seven points and seven rebounds may look quiet, but Ersan sure played a very important part in this one.

Defense

How does a man end a game with a +21 +/- while attempting just one shot and going scoreless? Well, it’s actually a two part answer. Part one is he plays terrific defense and part two is his backups play generally horrible. That’s the story of Kurt Thomas on Wednesday. Al Horford may have scored 25 points, but just nine of them came with Thomas on the court. Horford wasn’t able to back Thomas down and get any easy looks the way he did when any combination of Primoz Brezec, Dan Gadzuric, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute were on him. His defense on an otherwise dominating Horford will deservedly take a backseat to the monster charge he drew on Joe Johnson, but it was a huge relief for everyone rooting for Milwaukee when he checked back in to slow Horford in the fourth quarter.

• Nearly as impressive as the job Thomas did on Horford was the one John Salmons did on Joe Johnson. With a forgettable performance brewing from Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford, the responsibility in this one fell on Johnson. Salmons couldn’t have made his life any more difficult in the fourth quarter, making him hit shots falling away from the hoop with a hand in his face and maneuver through double teams instead of into open space. Salmons work allows Mbah a Moute to nest inside of Josh Smith’s head and changes everything for the Bucks.

Final Thoughts

Milwaukee has blown through what typically justifies progress so quickly that I’m still a little stunned. There are supposed to be proper channels for these things. A few close games in this series should have led to some wins next year which then would lead to a series win or two the following year. But the Bucks have been terrifically impatient and appear to be unsatisfied with progress being a slow process. With game six already sold out on Friday, Milwaukee has a prime opportunity in front of them. Does this seem like the type of team to let something like that slip away?

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If it hadn’t been done before, and it’s probably foolish that it wasn’t, the word “can’t” was officially removed from the dictionary on the Milwaukee Bucks 2009-10 season. It’s uses were once prevalent. Milwaukee can’t get to the line. They can’t score inside without Andrew Bogut. Brandon Jennings can’t finish. The Bucks can’t hang with the Hawks in the playoffs.

Can’t, can’t, can’t, can’t. These Bucks seem to know not of this word. Every time the rest of the world decides they aren’t capable of doing something, they go on and do it anyway. Milwaukee shot 32 free throws Monday night. They outscored the Hawks in the paint 44-26. Jennings was 9-16 from the field and didn’t hit a 3-pointer.

And the Bucks tied up their first round series with the Hawks at two.

In front of a raucous crowd with only a few pockets of empty seats in a sold out Bradley Center, the Bucks squeezed every last drop of effort out of 10 different players and played as close to flawless a game as they have without Bogut. The Bucks, a team once known for their selfishness on the court and corrosive chemistry off of it, relied on the formula that’s been working for them all season: above average ball movement and a sense of togetherness I haven’t seen in Milwaukee.

Asked about this being one of those games the old Bucks used to lose, Jerry Stackhouse had a very appropriate answer after the game:

I don’t know any of them old Bucks teams.

Can’t? Not these Bucks, not yet.

Offense

That 44-26 edge in points in the paint I mentioned earlier was no joke, and it all started with Jennings. For the very first time in his NBA career, Jennings shot over 50% in a game in which he failed to connect on a 3-point basket. Time and time again his failures inside have been documented, but Jennings forgot all about those on Monday. He repeatedly got in the lane against the Hawks Monday night and converted. Coach Skiles had been harping that Bucks guards needed to do a better job attacking the Hawks bigger defenders on switches, and Jennings did just that all night. Not only was he converting his own shots, but he found Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for a few open layups inside with some sweet interior passing. 23 points (9-16 FG 0-3 3FG), six assists and one turnover for the “rookie”.

• Jennings was huge again, but Carlos Delfino stole the show early. Through three games, the chorus was the same, “if Delfino gets it going, the Bucks might be tough to beat.” Well, he got it going in a big way. Delfino had 13 in the first and never looked back. Carlos finished with 22 points (8-14 FG 6-8 3FG), one big dunk, four rebonds, three assists and a fresh batch of confidence. Delfino’s first three rattled around and hit virtually every part of the rim before nestling in the bottom of the net. His thoughts on it:

I’ll take it. For me personally, the ball falls through the net, I don’t know how, but I’ll take it.

• 55.1% shooting? Milwaukee hit 7-18 on 3-point attempts, not as sparkling as Atlanta’s 10-19 effort from deep, but won this one inside. When I say inside, I don’t mean Milwaukee was tossing it to Kurt Thomas or Dan Gadzuric on the block, though. Milwaukee was penetrating like they rarely had this year. John Salmons was consistent as ever in this field (22 points 6-9 FG 10-10 FT), but it was Jennings and Delfino and company who really took this part of their game to another level Monday night. When asked if a win without relying on 3-point attempts was a revelation, Coach Skiles had this to say:

The revelation is more how many free throws we shot. It’s important for us at some point early in the game, because we penetrate usually pretty well and are pretty unselfish, that we’ll get some open three looks early in the game. It could be any number of guys, but it’s important that somebody steps up and knocks a couple down early and gets us feeling good about ourselves offensively. That’s what happened with Carlos tonight.

Defense

You often hear about veterans and their tricks defensively, but it’s not always clear if it’s a myth that they actually have these tricks up their sleeves. Let me assure you, it’s no myth with Kurt Thomas. All night long, Thomas was prodding the Hawks with little forearms off the ball, physical play and extra long screens. When Hawks guards tried to blow through him, he’d go down. When Hawks players would penetrate, he’d go down. Thomas nestled inside the Hawks heads at some point and was laughing about it by the fourth quarter. He helped limit Al Horford to just eight points and eight rebounds on a night Horford fouled out. I asked Thomas about his tricks, only to see him start to beam like a proud parent before breaking out in laugh.

“That’s a part of the game. Do what you can, try to keep them guessing and not let them see the same defensive coverages every time and try to keep them on their toes.”

• I swear, at the end of the third quarter, everyone in the Bradley Center had forgotten about Dan Gadzuric’s contract and was just thrilled to see him on the court. In a classic Gadzurician moment, Danny G. blocked a Joe Johnson layup attempt out of bounds and then converted on a bunny that he almost fumbled away just before the final buzzer in the third quarter sounded. Gadz may have only had seven points, five rebounds and two blocks, but his energy was a catalyst for the Bucks in the first half and then again in third quarter in which they pushed their lead to 11.

• Josh Sm…BOOOOOOO

Jo….BOOOOOOO

It was that kind of night at the Bradley Center. Whenever, umm, a certain Hawks forward, caught the ball, a chorus of boos rained down like a nasty thunderstorm. He had a nice bounce back game, 20 points (7-11 FG 1-1 3FG 5-6 FT), nine rebounds, two steals and a block, but Milwaukee didn’t allow this certain athletic Hawks player to get his transition game going. His numbers looked good, but his impact was demonstratively smaller than it had been in the first couple games. Keeping him and the rest of the Hawks from running (just eight fast break points for Atlanta) when this one gets back to Atlanta will be huge.

Final Thoughts

Well, at this point, this is up in the air. We could have a series that features one home team win after the next, we could see Atlanta figure it out and win the next two or watch Milwaukee steal one on the road before finishing it out at home. Throw out the seeding, throw out the regular season and every game this series, it’s a best two out of three between two teams that know they can beat one another. Milwaukee will certainly savor a win in a game that Atlanta shot 47.5/52.6/85.7. While the Bucks were capable defensively, the Hawks were still able to have a pretty good night from the field. That tells Milwaukee if they play their game and hit their shots, they can survive even a good night from the Hawks. Confidence is high and it seems like the Bucks can’t wait to get to Atlanta.

I guess I’ll let a can’t slide right there.

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 0-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-0

Date: 4/24/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN and FS Wisconsin

How in the world can the Bucks win this?

Take Advantage of Home Court

The Bucks haven’t played a meaningful home game this late in the year in nearly nine years. The Bradley Center crowd is going to want reasons to explode. Squad Six wants to get wild. Milwaukee trailed badly after the first quarter of game one and kind of bad in game two, another slow start could get the crowd out of it early and keep Atlanta’s confidence up. A fast start from Milwaukee could insert doubt into the minds of the Hawks. Atlanta was just 19-22 on the road this season.

It Ain’t Ova Till Ilyasova

Ersan Ilyasova is having a strong series and the cries to move him into the starting lineup have been getting louder. He’s averaging a double double at 12.5/10 and has a PER of 23.8. Even if he doesn’t start this one, he’ll certainly need to be on the court more than the 23.5 minutes he’s averaged so far this series. I know the Bucks value Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s defense very highly, but if he loses some minutes to make way for more Ersan, I don’t think anyone would have too much of a problem with that. It’s not like Ilyasova is a terrible defender. He gives great effort and rebounds the ball very well on the defensive end. He can’t possibly hurt the Bucks any more than they’ve been getting hurt.

The Bucks have outscored the Hawks by two points in the 48 minutes that Ersan Ilyasova has been on the court in this series.  In the 48 minutes that Ilyasova has been on the bench in this series, the Bucks have been outscored by 22 points.

Time For ThomFino

Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino seem to be having some sort of secret competition for who can play worse this series. After both playing significant roles all season for Milwaukee, their play has fallen off a cliff. Perhaps age has caught up to Thomas and injuries to Delfino. Or maybe they both have just slumped at the wrong time. Whatever the case may be, Milwaukee needs to figure out if they can be fixed or if they need to be sat. Milwaukee simply can’t trot these two out for another 30 minutes each and get returns like they have the first two games

Thomas: 4.8 PER, 22.2 TS%, 7 PFs/4 PTS
Delfino: 5.1 PER, 35.5 TS%, 0-5 3FG

Find A Way To Stop What’s Been Happening

The Hawks have been running like bulls in the first quarters of the last two games, turning Milwaukee turnovers into easy points. Their length on the perimeter has had Bucks guards dribbling away from the hoop and launching long passes all over the court. Predictably, the Hawks have feasted on these passes, turning them into easy scoring opportunities. Milwaukee needs to find a way to counter the Hawks aggressiveness, perhaps with a lineup free of LRMAM, to give Milwaukee five scoring threats at once. If Milwaukee can limit these instances and, as I’m been stressing, knock down a few more threes, a win remains possible.

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Seven  years ago, Mike Bibby was certainly someone worth worrying about in a playoff series.  Now, in 2010, I had written him off as a probable non-factor heading into the Bucks first round series with the Hawks.  Bibby did have a meaningful impact on the last Bucks-Hawks game prior to the end of the regular season, but I assumed his short lived barrage of threes was just that: short lived.

But Bibby was back at it again in game one, scoring 19 points on 8-9 shooting (3-3 3FG).  The obvious instinct is to look towards Brandon Jennings as the culprit for Bibby’s big day.  He’s a rookie, his defensive reputation, while improving, remains up in the air and he had a big night scoring.  So perhaps Jennings was taking the night off against Bibby and doing the Bucks a disservice.

But it’s not that simple.

Bibby scored just three baskets that were really the responsibility of Jennings and only one was an egregious error on the part of Jennings.  After a missed layup by Josh Smith, Kurt Thomas grabbed the rebound and looked to outlet to Jennings.  The crafty Bibby laid in wait and picked off the pass by reading Thomas’ eyes. Bibby dribbled into the right corner and set himself up for a three. Jennings, sulking a little after the turnover, was slow to get back to Bibby and did little more than jog over to him as he was releasing his shot.  Bibby hit the three, the Hawks went up nine and the rout, as they say, was on.

But Jennings was only guarding Bibby on two more of his scores and he didn’t do a bad job.  Bibby hit a difficult shot as ball handler on a pick and roll on one.  On the other, Bibby pump faked a hard closing Jennings and saw him fly by as Bibby took a dribble and hit a shot over a helping out Jerry Stackhouse. It’s hard to be too concerned with Jennings defensive efforts there.  And that’s how a lot of Bibby’s evening went.

A 43% shooter from 16-23 feet on the season, Bibby hit 4-5 shots from 17 to 19-feet Saturday evening.  He hit a three over a leaping John Salmons off an inbound play in the corner and scored on a layup on another inbound play after a series of screens. That layup did remind me that Andrew Bogut wasn’t on the court though.

As Bibby turned the corner on Jerry Stackhouse off an Al Horford screen, Thomas was stationary was Stackhouse chased Bibby through the paint to the hoop.  Were Andrew Bogut still prowling the middle of the floor for the Bucks, this shot likely would have been erased.  Thomas simply wasn’t mobile enough to make the quick move to jump off Horford fading out towards the arc and attack Bibby at the rim.  Thomas’ mobility actually came into question a number of times against Bibby, as he isn’t really able to hedge on screens and contest shooters on the pick and roll.  When Thomas is involved in the pick and roll as the defender of the screener, he does a very good job of stopping the screener from getting a clean look on the roll, but often the result is an open jump-shot for the ball handler that Thomas can’t do much about.

It’s a tough spot, but it makes sense for the Bucks to gamble that Bibby, or often times Jamal Crawford, won’t make or take the long two.

Game one just happened to be one of those days in which Bibby got hot.  It seems unlikely he’ll be able to replicate his effort and if he does, at least the Bucks went down making one of the lesser Hawks shoot them out of it.  I think they’ll live with that.

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Between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics, things are getting a tad chippy.

(For more on the Celtics, check out TrueHoop Network Boston Celtics blog, CelticsHub)

Well, I’ll give the Celtics one thing.  As far as a team the Bucks can learn from, they won’t be a bad playoff opponent.  It looks like it’ll make for an entertaining series to boot.

In another game that had a couple chippy moments, the Bucks lost a game that didn’t really mean all that much in front of a sold out Bradley Center crowd Saturday night, 105-90.  And when I say it didn’t mean all that much, I’m referring to the fact that it’s looking more and more like these two teams are going to end up seeing each other in the first round of the playoffs.  Atlanta won again Saturday, they’ll likely beat out Boston for the third seed and while the Bucks lost, they still hold a half game lead for fifth and have a tiebreaker over Miami.  But I think a few things in this one meant a little something.

Teams that play hard defense can occasionally rub their opponents the wrong way and both the Celtics and the Bucks do this.  Teams that have won a championship with a core that’s slipping off the top of its perch often give the impression to new challengers that they aren’t worthy.  Boston has won a title with this core.  Teams that haven’t made the playoffs in some time and are making their first run together often want to prove like they belong.  That’d be the Bucks.  So we’re looking at a first round series between the “Old Irish” and the “Young Bucks”, one on the way down, the other on the way up.  They’ll meet in the middle, chips on shoulders in tow.

So believe me when I write that the miniature dust-ups mean at least mean a little something.  No one wants to be disrespected in the NBA.  No one.

But the Celtics are a great first round opponent for tons of reasons.  Not just because they appear most beatable, but because the Bucks can learn lots from their guys.  They can see the intensity they’ll need.  They can feel the type of defense pressure that wins games in the playoffs.  They can see a star at work in fourth quarters in Paul Pierce, watch what he does and how he operates.

But not all the Celtics serve that purpose.  Some of the Celtics are in need of some learning themselves.  Frankly, on Saturday night, Glen “Big Baby” Davis looked like, well, pardon the obvious pun, but, a Big Baby.  His reaction to a hard foul by Kurt Thomas led to a technical for his time, an on court talking to by Celtics Coach Doc Rivers and … a flagrant foul on Thomas?  Perhaps Davis did know what he was doing.  It’s possible he was just working the refs.

Ah, working the refs.  Few skills seem more difficult to develop in the NBA or as valuable.  The Celtics are always reminding the refs which team has a title under the belt, though not so obviously.  Constantly, you’ll see a Celtic put their arm around the ref, scowl after a call or, in Rasheed Wallace’s case, scream “and one” every shot attempt.  This was a Michael Redd specialty and, truth be told, may be the area where the Bucks will miss him most during the playoffs.  But playing the masters of this craft will give the Bucks an up close and personal tutoring session on this ever so necessary skill.

Of course, Milwaukee will have plenty of time to watch and learn once this regular season gets out of the way and the playoffs start.  This was simply the appetizer before round one.  Hopefully Milwaukee was paying attention.

Offense

The Celtics have a terrific defense.  They’re tough to beat.  That being said, any team can get out of their comfort zone and make some mistakes.  So what did Scott Skiles try and do?  Get the Celtics out of their comfort zone.  Milwaukee spent the majority of the third quarter “going small” with a lineup consisting of Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, Jerry Stackhouse, Carlos Delfino and Ersan Ilyasova. And the results were mixed.  They kept it close, but couldn’t overtake Boston.  Milwaukee saw their gap vary from one to five points, but could never take the lead.  A shot here or a shot there falls differently, and who knows how we’re looking at this game right now.

What’s most important is that Milwaukee was able to dictate the game in the third quarter.  Coach Skiles:

We just weren’t making any headway.  It’s strictly to, hopefully, get them to play the game we are trying to get them to play rather than the game they are playing right now, which we can’t do anything with.  And we did.  Unfortunately their smalls played better than ours the rest of the game.

Boston initially left their bigs on the court, but then countered with various combinations of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Pierce, Tony Allen, Wallace and Kedrick Perkins.

• As it typically is, shooting percentage was an issue for Milwaukee.  The Bucks were under 40% for the second time in the four games without Andrew Bogut. Milwaukee is now 3-13 when shooting under 40%.

• A much needed strong game shooting the ball came from Jennings (7-11 FG 4-6 3FG), who finished with 21 point.  Milwaukee will need more outings like this from him come playoff time.  He did a great job of hitting open shots of penetration or ball swings back to him.  Sometimes he struggles with those, already set-up waiting to catch open threes, but he was hitting them against Boston.

Defense

Rondo goes wherever he wants, that’s a problem.  The Celtics have shot over 30 free throws twice in the three games Milwaukee has played them, that’s a problem.  But an issue that may be even more troubling than either of those two and more difficult to control, is Paul Pierce.

That Paul Pierce midrange jumper I’ve heard so much about lately?  It looked pretty good against Milwaukee.  Was his answer for every Milwaukee made baskets a minor annoyance, like a baby waking up over night?  Or is this Pierce hitting jumpers against Milwaukee thing going to last throughout the next few weeks and be a big problem, like a baby becoming a toddler.

Pierce finished with 24 points on Saturday (10-17 FG 4-4 FT) and didn’t miss a shot in scoring 10 points in critical fashion during the third quarter.  Eight of his points came with the Bucks either winning by one (at the very start of the quarter) or the Celtics holding the one point lead after a Bucks basket.  He constantly had answers.

If Milwaukee can find a way to box him up some, they’ll be in much better shape against the C’s.

• Don’t get me wrong though, I’m worried about Rondo.  He has so many tricks and ball fakes it’s nearly impossible to keep track of him or the rock.  Fortunately, Rondo still is a very poor shooter, so if the Bucks can find a way to wall him out of the paint they’ll have a fighting chance against him.  That’s much easier said than done though.  He had a very loud 15 points (5-14 FG 5-8 FT) and 10 assists Saturday.

Final Thoughts

A barrage of late technical fouls and silliness made this score look a little worse than it should have.  Coach Skiles got rang defending his guys and Jerry Stackhouse picked one up in scrumming it up with Paul Pierce.  Stackhouse wrote it all off to playoff intensity and let us know we should be expecting more to come.  He said it’d be an entertaining series if it comes to be that Milwaukee plays Boston.  And I don’t know about you, but I’m rarely one to disagree with Jerry Stackhouse.

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One of the many keys to continued success the rest of the way for the Milwaukee Bucks was prominently on display Wednesday night at the Bradley Center.  They need balance.  A team that lacks a true star to begin with, the Bucks have needed to get something out of everyone all year, even before Andrew Bogut’s injury.  Now, they need balance more than ever.  And when they get it, good things can happen.  Milwaukee was about as balanced as they could be in their 108-89 victory over the Nets Wednesday night – 120 minutes for the starters, 120 minutes for the reserves.

While the Bucks starters were outscored 64-59 on the night, the bench did their part and then some, out-scoring New Jersey’s backups 49-25.  This shouldn’t have been surprising though.  The Nets are 11-67 for a reason.  They have some starters that are above-average players, but their bench is full of young, inexperienced and, as far as I could tell, relatively uninterested players.  New Jersey certainly looked the part of the league’s bottom feeder.  Everyone was hooting and hollering from the sidelines during a fast start by Devin Harris, but there was a clear sense of indifference as the game began to slip away.  But hey, a job is a job, and if I had a stat at my work that said we’d only had a successful day 11 out of the last 77 times we operated, I’d be waiting for a vacation myself.  But back to the bench.

Role player was a fitting definition of the Bucks reserves on this evening.

Jerry Stackhouse as “Low Post Scorer”

Upon signing Stackhouse earlier this season, Coach Skiles said he thought the veteran immediately became Milwaukee’s second best low post scorer.   Occasionally the Bucks had been going to him in the post, but with the other options the Bucks had, Bogut in the paint and Salmons everywhere, Stack’s post game had been a bit forgotten about.  Wednesday night it was front and center.  Time after time Milwaukee found Stackhouse in the post with a smaller (and often much younger) defender on him that he was able to take advantage of.  Stack finished with a much needed 18 points (6-9 FG 2-2 3FG 4-4 FT) after really struggling the last couple weeks.

“You get a couple drops here and there.  I feel like I got an advantage over whoever guarding me,” Stackhouse said with a wry smile.  “Guys know their role, they know what they do best, I think that’s what we have to do now.  We have to do what we do and don’t try and do more than that and we’ll be fine.”

Dan Gadzuric as “Awkward Hustling Big Man”

Gadz was the big goofy jumper we all remembered from years ago once again Wednesday night.  He can make you smile (eight rebounds in 17 minutes), he can make you cringe (a free throw line jumper … that went down smooth) and he can make you cry (never one to be outdone, he pulled a Brezec and fell down after a move by a Nets guard).  Gadz was out there running around and doing his best to play to his strengths, namely rebounding and shot-blocking.  He’s not getting to as many balls as he once did as a shot-blocker, but Gadz can certainly still grab some boards.

Charlie Bell as “The X Stopper”

While Bell is probably not as good a defender as his reputation suggests he is, he had another strong defensive outing against the Nets.  Devin Harris gave Milwaukee fits in the first quarter, scoring 18 of his 25 points, but Bell proved very effective on him when given the chance.

Bell played the entire second quarter, helping to limit Harris to just one point on zero shots from the field.  With Harris unaggressive, the Nets mustered little offense and were unable to build on the momentum of their big first quarter.  I joked that Bell probably hadn’t been playing much lately because he was busy traveling the country and stopping Dwyane Wade from doing things given the talk about him being the “Wade Stopper” earlier this year.  But Bell certainly played the role of top defender against the Nets.

Kurt Thomas as “A Different Kind of Center”

About the only thing Thomas does similar to Bogut is rebound.  Thomas again rebounded the ball very well Wednesday, grabbing 10 rebounds in 27 minutes.  In addition to his skills on the glass, Thomas showed he’s not going to hurt the Bucks offense.  His 15-foot jumper looks as reliable as ever and is helping to create space for the Bucks inside.

The Bucks veteran role players have traveled this path before and know what adversity is like.  Thus far, they’ve been shining examples on how the Bucks can keep the good times rolling without Andrew Bogut.

Offense

• John Salmons had 22 points (10-13 FG 1-2 3FG 1-2 FT).  This feels redundant.  In a good way.  Not like when I used to think to myself, “why can’t Tim Thomas ever grab more than five rebounds or score more than 15 points?”  That was the bad kind of redundant.

• He had a few points in garbage time to help pad the numbers, but Ersan Ilyasova’s points were on jumpers so smooth looking I wanted to grab them and put them in a commercial for milk chocolate.  15 points (7-12 FG 1-4 3FG 0-1 FT) and nine rebounds on the evening.  The consistently stellar production out of Ilyasova lately has been a total joy to watch.  It’s one thing to like having a player on a team, it’s another to have a player who is so much fun to watch on a team.  Ersan is the latter.

Defense

Bell, Thomas, Gadzuric and Stackhouse, the role players, all did their part defensively.  Stack had a breakaway dunk off a steal and that exceptional block you saw the highlight of above.  The Nets got into Milwaukee right off the bat, shooting 65% in the first quarter.  Obviously that wasn’t going to last and the Bucks made sure of it by holding them to 27% shooting in the second half.  Their point totals were 38 in the first quarter to only 31 in the second half.  Quite a difference a break makes.

Final Thoughts

I’d like to think it’s never easy for an NBA team and knowing the Nets are hungry for any wins they can get would make for a competitive game.  But I never felt like the Bucks would drop this one.  Even when the Nets were playing well, it seemed more luck than skill, save for Devin Harris.  What was surprising is how ineffective Brook Lopez was.  The Nets center has given Milwaukee fits in the past and with Bogut out, I thought he’d be the key to their whole game.  Perhaps he was too willing to defer (seven assists to just six shots).  Whatever the case may be, Lopez was hardly noticeable with just five points on 1-6 shooting.  I can live with that and I can certainly live with another Bucks win.  They’ll need all of them they can get to hold off Charlotte and stay in the top six.

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It’s a celebration. Take it away Kanye (more accurately, some kid lip-syncing Kanye).

Now everyone can take a breath.  The worst case scenario cannot come to pass.  The Milwaukee Bucks are officially going to be in the playoffs.

It was fitting the Bucks clinched in a game filled with errant jumpers, ball-control, defense and anything else that’s unsexy about basketball.  After all, this is a team that’s second from the bottom of the league in field goal percentage, has turned the ball over the fifth fewest times and has the third highest defensive rating.  “Fear the Deer” has been the team’s calling card of late, but Tuesday’s victory was certainly more the “Work Hard, Play Hard” variety.

Certainly, sub-40% shooting (36.4% on the night for Milwaukee) efforts will not strike fear into the hearts of future Bucks opponents.  But right now Milwaukee is anything but a finished project heading into the playoffs.  As nice as it is to sit back and enjoy the clinch, Milwaukee still has a considerable amount of work ahead of them before April 17^th.  Near the top of that list is figuring out how the remaining pieces fit together.

Milwaukee tried out some different lineups Tuesday and they’ll likely do some mixing and matching again Wednesday.  The playoffs will not wait until the Bucks are comfortable in their new roles, so there is no time for Milwaukee to wait to figure out who’s going to need to do what.

Offense

I’m often asked what I think Ersan Ilyasova’s ceiling is.  Sometimes I say it’s probably not much different than the average persons, but that it’s likely higher considering he’s 6’10.  Occasionally this gets a chuckle; more often than not it gets an eye roll.  The rest of the time I say it’s nearly impossible to tell.  Coach Skiles has said he thinks Ersan will end up closer to a 37 or 38% shooter from behind the arc rather than hang around his current percentage which hovers at 34.5.  There’s no reason to think that improvement would remove his desire to get inside and do dirty work though.

Ilyasova is a very unique player.  That’s probably what makes him so difficult to project.  Any time I think I’ve got him down, he has games like the one he had Tuesday.  Simply put, Ilyasova was everywhere.  17 points (7-14 FG 1-5 3FG 2-2 FT), seven rebounds, a block and drew at least one charge.  As per usual, he kept a few other balls alive that teammates grabbed and spread peskyness all over the court.  Ers looked legit.

I knew increased minutes would mean more production for him, but this was more than that.  He looked like a much more confident player than he has at times this season, he looked like someone really coming into his own Tuesday night.   His pump fakes seemed to have purpose and his drives more decisive.  If this is the Ersan Ilyasova we’ll be seeing from here on out, then maybe this Bogut injury was not without its plusses.  Already apart of the Bucks plan, the increased everything surrounding Ilyasova could make him a much bigger factor next year.

• As much as I thought Ilyasova looked better on Tuesday, I was glad to see the familiarity of John Salmons getting buckets. 26 points (8-19 FG 3-6 3FG 7-8 FT) are all in a days work lately for Salmons.  As evidenced by his eight free throws, Salmons was the Buck taking it to the hole when shots weren’t falling.

The Center Report

Kurt Thomas filled in admirably for Bogut on Tuesday, grabbing 14 rebounds in just 30 minutes.  That sounds about right as far as minutes go for Thomas, especially for the rest of the regular season.  Come playoff time, all bets are off, but I’d think Coach Skiles would want to make sure he’s not wearing out the vet down the stretch.  Fortunately he hasn’t taken too much of a toll on his body this season.

As much as everyone (me included) makes fun of Dan Gadzuric, one thing is clear: he can rebound.  He’s awkward looking and often slaps balls out of bounds trying to keep them alive, but Gadz is a pretty good rebounder (four rebounds in 11 minutes).  His rebound rate actually eclipses Ersan Ilyasova’s (16.1-15.4), even if he can never stay on the floor.  Gadz’s 11 minutes weren’t a disaster, despite the fact that a pass hit him in the back while he wasn’t looking and he allowed the Bulls a 5-4 defensive possession while he hung back to tie his shoe that had come off.  Aside from that, I think I can live with everything else Gadz did.

Final Thoughts

After the heartbreak of Bogut’s injury, I’m sure this win puts the players’ collective minds at ease a bit.  It’s hard to take the foot off the gas at any point in time during the NBA season, but making the playoffs is still a big deal for this team.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see a very loose group at the Bradley Center Wednesday night against the Nets.  It’s possible some of the Bucks poor shooting Tuesday had something to do with the clinch on the line, the injury fresh in their minds and a crucial part of their identity watching the game at home.

But that can all be put to rest.  The Bucks know they can beat a good team without Bogut, they know they can shoot better than they did Tuesday and, most importantly, they know they won’t be going home early this year.

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