It might as well be tonight, right?

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 0-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-0

Date: 4/24/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN and FS Wisconsin

How in the world can the Bucks win this?

Take Advantage of Home Court

The Bucks haven’t played a meaningful home game this late in the year in nearly nine years. The Bradley Center crowd is going to want reasons to explode. Squad Six wants to get wild. Milwaukee trailed badly after the first quarter of game one and kind of bad in game two, another slow start could get the crowd out of it early and keep Atlanta’s confidence up. A fast start from Milwaukee could insert doubt into the minds of the Hawks. Atlanta was just 19-22 on the road this season.

It Ain’t Ova Till Ilyasova

Ersan Ilyasova is having a strong series and the cries to move him into the starting lineup have been getting louder. He’s averaging a double double at 12.5/10 and has a PER of 23.8. Even if he doesn’t start this one, he’ll certainly need to be on the court more than the 23.5 minutes he’s averaged so far this series. I know the Bucks value Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s defense very highly, but if he loses some minutes to make way for more Ersan, I don’t think anyone would have too much of a problem with that. It’s not like Ilyasova is a terrible defender. He gives great effort and rebounds the ball very well on the defensive end. He can’t possibly hurt the Bucks any more than they’ve been getting hurt.

The Bucks have outscored the Hawks by two points in the 48 minutes that Ersan Ilyasova has been on the court in this series.  In the 48 minutes that Ilyasova has been on the bench in this series, the Bucks have been outscored by 22 points.

Time For ThomFino

Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino seem to be having some sort of secret competition for who can play worse this series. After both playing significant roles all season for Milwaukee, their play has fallen off a cliff. Perhaps age has caught up to Thomas and injuries to Delfino. Or maybe they both have just slumped at the wrong time. Whatever the case may be, Milwaukee needs to figure out if they can be fixed or if they need to be sat. Milwaukee simply can’t trot these two out for another 30 minutes each and get returns like they have the first two games

Thomas: 4.8 PER, 22.2 TS%, 7 PFs/4 PTS
Delfino: 5.1 PER, 35.5 TS%, 0-5 3FG

Find A Way To Stop What’s Been Happening

The Hawks have been running like bulls in the first quarters of the last two games, turning Milwaukee turnovers into easy points. Their length on the perimeter has had Bucks guards dribbling away from the hoop and launching long passes all over the court. Predictably, the Hawks have feasted on these passes, turning them into easy scoring opportunities. Milwaukee needs to find a way to counter the Hawks aggressiveness, perhaps with a lineup free of LRMAM, to give Milwaukee five scoring threats at once. If Milwaukee can limit these instances and, as I’m been stressing, knock down a few more threes, a win remains possible.

Seemingly long removed from relevance, Bibby was still relevant enough to be featured in this commercial last year.

Seven  years ago, Mike Bibby was certainly someone worth worrying about in a playoff series.  Now, in 2010, I had written him off as a probable non-factor heading into the Bucks first round series with the Hawks.  Bibby did have a meaningful impact on the last Bucks-Hawks game prior to the end of the regular season, but I assumed his short lived barrage of threes was just that: short lived.

But Bibby was back at it again in game one, scoring 19 points on 8-9 shooting (3-3 3FG).  The obvious instinct is to look towards Brandon Jennings as the culprit for Bibby’s big day.  He’s a rookie, his defensive reputation, while improving, remains up in the air and he had a big night scoring.  So perhaps Jennings was taking the night off against Bibby and doing the Bucks a disservice.

But it’s not that simple.

Bibby scored just three baskets that were really the responsibility of Jennings and only one was an egregious error on the part of Jennings.  After a missed layup by Josh Smith, Kurt Thomas grabbed the rebound and looked to outlet to Jennings.  The crafty Bibby laid in wait and picked off the pass by reading Thomas’ eyes. Bibby dribbled into the right corner and set himself up for a three. Jennings, sulking a little after the turnover, was slow to get back to Bibby and did little more than jog over to him as he was releasing his shot.  Bibby hit the three, the Hawks went up nine and the rout, as they say, was on.

But Jennings was only guarding Bibby on two more of his scores and he didn’t do a bad job.  Bibby hit a difficult shot as ball handler on a pick and roll on one.  On the other, Bibby pump faked a hard closing Jennings and saw him fly by as Bibby took a dribble and hit a shot over a helping out Jerry Stackhouse. It’s hard to be too concerned with Jennings defensive efforts there.  And that’s how a lot of Bibby’s evening went.

A 43% shooter from 16-23 feet on the season, Bibby hit 4-5 shots from 17 to 19-feet Saturday evening.  He hit a three over a leaping John Salmons off an inbound play in the corner and scored on a layup on another inbound play after a series of screens. That layup did remind me that Andrew Bogut wasn’t on the court though.

As Bibby turned the corner on Jerry Stackhouse off an Al Horford screen, Thomas was stationary was Stackhouse chased Bibby through the paint to the hoop.  Were Andrew Bogut still prowling the middle of the floor for the Bucks, this shot likely would have been erased.  Thomas simply wasn’t mobile enough to make the quick move to jump off Horford fading out towards the arc and attack Bibby at the rim.  Thomas’ mobility actually came into question a number of times against Bibby, as he isn’t really able to hedge on screens and contest shooters on the pick and roll.  When Thomas is involved in the pick and roll as the defender of the screener, he does a very good job of stopping the screener from getting a clean look on the roll, but often the result is an open jump-shot for the ball handler that Thomas can’t do much about.

It’s a tough spot, but it makes sense for the Bucks to gamble that Bibby, or often times Jamal Crawford, won’t make or take the long two.

Game one just happened to be one of those days in which Bibby got hot.  It seems unlikely he’ll be able to replicate his effort and if he does, at least the Bucks went down making one of the lesser Hawks shoot them out of it.  I think they’ll live with that.

Between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics, things are getting a tad chippy.

(For more on the Celtics, check out TrueHoop Network Boston Celtics blog, CelticsHub)

Well, I’ll give the Celtics one thing.  As far as a team the Bucks can learn from, they won’t be a bad playoff opponent.  It looks like it’ll make for an entertaining series to boot.

In another game that had a couple chippy moments, the Bucks lost a game that didn’t really mean all that much in front of a sold out Bradley Center crowd Saturday night, 105-90.  And when I say it didn’t mean all that much, I’m referring to the fact that it’s looking more and more like these two teams are going to end up seeing each other in the first round of the playoffs.  Atlanta won again Saturday, they’ll likely beat out Boston for the third seed and while the Bucks lost, they still hold a half game lead for fifth and have a tiebreaker over Miami.  But I think a few things in this one meant a little something.

Teams that play hard defense can occasionally rub their opponents the wrong way and both the Celtics and the Bucks do this.  Teams that have won a championship with a core that’s slipping off the top of its perch often give the impression to new challengers that they aren’t worthy.  Boston has won a title with this core.  Teams that haven’t made the playoffs in some time and are making their first run together often want to prove like they belong.  That’d be the Bucks.  So we’re looking at a first round series between the “Old Irish” and the “Young Bucks”, one on the way down, the other on the way up.  They’ll meet in the middle, chips on shoulders in tow.

So believe me when I write that the miniature dust-ups mean at least mean a little something.  No one wants to be disrespected in the NBA.  No one.

But the Celtics are a great first round opponent for tons of reasons.  Not just because they appear most beatable, but because the Bucks can learn lots from their guys.  They can see the intensity they’ll need.  They can feel the type of defense pressure that wins games in the playoffs.  They can see a star at work in fourth quarters in Paul Pierce, watch what he does and how he operates.

But not all the Celtics serve that purpose.  Some of the Celtics are in need of some learning themselves.  Frankly, on Saturday night, Glen “Big Baby” Davis looked like, well, pardon the obvious pun, but, a Big Baby.  His reaction to a hard foul by Kurt Thomas led to a technical for his time, an on court talking to by Celtics Coach Doc Rivers and … a flagrant foul on Thomas?  Perhaps Davis did know what he was doing.  It’s possible he was just working the refs.

Ah, working the refs.  Few skills seem more difficult to develop in the NBA or as valuable.  The Celtics are always reminding the refs which team has a title under the belt, though not so obviously.  Constantly, you’ll see a Celtic put their arm around the ref, scowl after a call or, in Rasheed Wallace’s case, scream “and one” every shot attempt.  This was a Michael Redd specialty and, truth be told, may be the area where the Bucks will miss him most during the playoffs.  But playing the masters of this craft will give the Bucks an up close and personal tutoring session on this ever so necessary skill.

Of course, Milwaukee will have plenty of time to watch and learn once this regular season gets out of the way and the playoffs start.  This was simply the appetizer before round one.  Hopefully Milwaukee was paying attention. Read more…

Recap/Box Score

One of the many keys to continued success the rest of the way for the Milwaukee Bucks was prominently on display Wednesday night at the Bradley Center.  They need balance.  A team that lacks a true star to begin with, the Bucks have needed to get something out of everyone all year, even before Andrew Bogut’s injury.  Now, they need balance more than ever.  And when they get it, good things can happen.  Milwaukee was about as balanced as they could be in their 108-89 victory over the Nets Wednesday night – 120 minutes for the starters, 120 minutes for the reserves.

While the Bucks starters were outscored 64-59 on the night, the bench did their part and then some, out-scoring New Jersey’s backups 49-25.  This shouldn’t have been surprising though.  The Nets are 11-67 for a reason.  They have some starters that are above-average players, but their bench is full of young, inexperienced and, as far as I could tell, relatively uninterested players.  New Jersey certainly looked the part of the league’s bottom feeder.  Everyone was hooting and hollering from the sidelines during a fast start by Devin Harris, but there was a clear sense of indifference as the game began to slip away.  But hey, a job is a job, and if I had a stat at my work that said we’d only had a successful day 11 out of the last 77 times we operated, I’d be waiting for a vacation myself.  But back to the bench.

Role player was a fitting definition of the Bucks reserves on this evening. Read more…

(UPDATE:  Easy baskets were hard to come by in last night’s Bucks-Bulls game, so Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook takes a look at the play that swung the game in the Bucks favor.  A Brandon Jennings to Ersan Ilyasova fastbreak basket.)

It’s a celebration. Take it away Kanye (more accurately, some kid lip-syncing Kanye).

Now everyone can take a breath.  The worst case scenario cannot come to pass.  The Milwaukee Bucks are officially going to be in the playoffs.

It was fitting the Bucks clinched in a game filled with errant jumpers, ball-control, defense and anything else that’s unsexy about basketball.  After all, this is a team that’s second from the bottom of the league in field goal percentage, has turned the ball over the fifth fewest times and has the third highest defensive rating.  “Fear the Deer” has been the team’s calling card of late, but Tuesday’s victory was certainly more the “Work Hard, Play Hard” variety.

Certainly, sub-40% shooting (36.4% on the night for Milwaukee) efforts will not strike fear into the hearts of future Bucks opponents.  But right now Milwaukee is anything but a finished project heading into the playoffs.  As nice as it is to sit back and enjoy the clinch, Milwaukee still has a considerable amount of work ahead of them before April 17^th.  Near the top of that list is figuring out how the remaining pieces fit together.

Milwaukee tried out some different lineups Tuesday and they’ll likely do some mixing and matching again Wednesday.  The playoffs will not wait until the Bucks are comfortable in their new roles, so there is no time for Milwaukee to wait to figure out who’s going to need to do what. Read more…