Miami Heat

97

Final Recap | Box Score

105

Milwaukee Bucks

	Carlos Delfino, SF 20 MIN | 3-6 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 11 PTS | +10 Delfino played just two minutes and didn’t catch the brunt of Lebron’s first quarter explosion. I can’t say I saw Stephen Jackson do anything particularly bad on Lebron, I think it was more one of those times when a great player got into a zone. With Lebron, it takes a team effort and a lot of luck. It helps when ‘Bron isn’t necessarily the focus too. After the first it didn’t really seem like he was. Delfino probably deserves some credit for that, as he was hounding him off the ball and on. Oh, and Delfino chipped in three threes and 11 points. For a guy tasked with spending most of the night guarding the league’s best player, that’s a pretty terrific offensive contribution.
	Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF 33 MIN | 6-7 FG | 1-4 FT | 8 REB | 0 AST | 13 PTS | +22 Starting on Bosh? Forcing Wade into step back threes after 24 seconds of dribbling? Blocking him on a drive into the paint? Spending the last part of the fourth quarter on Lebron after spending the majority of the game on Wade? All while tossing in 11 points and six rebounds? As if Mbah a Moute needed to do anything else to endear himself to Milwaukee fans as a defender and putbacks guy. This game was the prototype for all big defense little offense guys.
	Drew Gooden, PF 39 MIN | 7-12 FG | 3-4 FT | 9 REB | 5 AST | 17 PTS | +5 Scott Skiles had a smile on his face after the game when someone asked him about Drew Gooden’s strong outing. “I particularly like the Drew Gooden one man press break.” That’s so Drew Gooden. Apparently so is drawing fouls and so is battling and making some big plays late in games though too. All over the map.
	Brandon Jennings, PG 42 MIN | 9-25 FG | 6-8 FT | 4 REB | 8 AST | 31 PTS | +16 I’m not really the superstitious type. I know what I say isn’t actually going to impact the future. I know I can accept something and be confident if there’s enough data associated with it, it won’t stop being true. All that being said, I’m still nervous to just accept that Brandon Jennings is pretty good now. I don’t want to jinx it. He didn’t even shoot particularly well against the Heat in the fist half, but he was such a damn leader out there. And when the Bucks were working on a come back, he was doing his whole annoying (to the other team that is) swag thing. It’s so easy to look past that shooting line and at the times he poked the ball from Mario Chalmers or drew the offensive foul on D-Wade or stared down Norris Cole and just enjoy the heck out of this dude. Oh, and then he hit some huge shots too. Then he mugged it up. Then he took it a step further and blacked out for a while in the fourth. Or maybe that was me. Regardless. Everyone really enjoyed that.
	Mike Dunleavy, SF 26 MIN | 4-8 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 5 AST | 10 PTS | +5 He wasn’t quite as sharp a shooter as he was Monday, but Dunleavy played a big part in the Bucks all around strong offensive night. He made his share of shots, but maybe even more importantly, he moved the hell out of the ball. Monday he was a creative perimeter player, a quick decision maker and a good shooter. That’ll do.
	Ersan Ilyasova, PF 33 MIN | 4-14 FG | 1-2 FT | 14 REB | 3 AST | 9 PTS | +3 Athletically, Bosh is on another level that Ilyasova will never approach. In terms of effort, Ilyasova can battle with any player in the league though. It was another very typical Ilyasova kind of night. He led the Bucks in rebounding because he knows when he can keep battling and knows how to tip a ball to himself. His shot-selection was stellar as well.

Three Things We Saw

1. It would have been easy for the Bucks to check out after the Heat shot 80% and scored 40 points in the first quarter. I’ve seen Milwaukee do that to teams (no really, I swear I have) and pretty much put them away in the first. But the Bucks didn’t quit. There really wasn’t any reason to expect them to, I can’t remember the last time I saw them do that. It’s like the Bucks gatorade cooler is full of lemon lime laced with effort.
2. I’m sure you won’t feel bad for Jackson at this point, but it was almost like he was sacrificed in the first quarter. Lebron was unreal and Skiles brought Jax in as the first man off the bench when Delfino ran into foul trouble. Lebron proceeded to wear him out. Jackson would not return and Lebron wouldn’t stay quite so hot. I will not connect those dots so simply though.
3. Milwaukee struggled a bit late with the Heat press, but they found away to stay just composed enough to keep Miami at bay. Drew Gooden tried every insane thing he could to infuriate and drive fans up the walls at home and at the Bradley Center, but, as unorthodox as his methods are, he didn’t kill the Bucks late. I mean that as a compliment. The Bucks looked like a five-year-old who just realized his parents let go of his bike and didn’t tell him late when the Heat put some pressure on. But they held firm. Also, I have no idea what just happened. But I’m pretty sure that’s two wins over the Heat this season for Milwaukee. Wow.

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Milwaukee Bucks

91

Final Recap | Box Score

82

Miami Heat

	Shaun Livingston, PG 39 MIN | 3-7 FG | 4-4 FT | 5 REB | 5 AST | 10 PTS | +11 One of Livingston’s biggest assets is his size, not only because it lets him post up smaller players on offense, but because Milwaukee can easily switch with him and virtually anyone else on pick and rolls. Against the Heat, with James and Chalmers and Cole and Battier all involved in the pick and roll game, it was useful to have Livingston able to defend any of them. He had another strong, multi-faceted offensive game doing a little scoring, dishing and rebounding.
	Andrew Bogut, C 32 MIN | 5-8 FG | 3-4 FT | 8 REB | 2 AST | 13 PTS | +1 Bogut’s offense is still touch and go. It’s difficult to project when he’ll play well and when he’ll be leaving hook shots a foot short. But with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute back, Milwaukee certainly looks to have their defensive tag team ready to regain the belt. The Bucks held Miami to their lowest scoring game of the season and Bogut played a huge role in that.
	Brandon Jennings, PG 35 MIN | 5-20 FG | 12-13 FT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 23 PTS | +9 Jennings wasn’t getting the same looks against Heat point guards Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole that he was getting against Iman Shumpert and Mike Bibby of the Knicks. Miami was forcing him to take more shots in the in-between area, not as many three-point looks and not as many looks in the paint. Jennings struggled to hit what three-point looks he did get, but he did his best to keep penetrating and keep feeding his teammates. He even chipped in on the glass, with no rebound being bigger than the one he grabbed late in the fourth quarter and put back in to basically ended the game.
	Stephen Jackson, SG 26 MIN | 4-13 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 10 PTS | +12 Jackson did not start for the second straight game, but he did play in this one. He started slow, but hit two big threes, one late in the third quarter and one to start the fourth. He’s a gambler on D and he was able to poke the ball out while helping on defense on a couple of occasions as well. He looked to pass and had a couple of pretty assists too. Jackson isn’t a lost cause, even if people have been writing him off after his latest mishap. He still has the talent to be a useful player, as he demonstrated against the Heat. And most importantly, this isn’t a guy who has quit on his teammates or anything like that. He’s still a competitor, and he’s still competing.
	Ersan Ilyasova, PF 22 MIN | 5-8 FG | 5-5 FT | 6 REB | 0 AST | 16 PTS | +7 Ilyasova came in quick for Jon Leuer and made it difficult for Scott Skiles to take him back out. He was terrific on the glass and from a competitive standpoint. This was a classic Ilyasova game, right down to the made three-pointer. It makes sense that in an ugly game, Ilyasova was one of the players to shine.

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No, the Bucks wouldn’t have three superstars like the Heat.  They wouldn’t even have one for that matter.  But it seemed plausible that they would pair a strong defense with an offense getting contributions from a variety of sources and beat teams they weren’t supposed to.

Turns out, we were right.  We just saw it happen.  Wednesday night, the Bucks marched  into Miami, got those contributions from a wide variety of players and upended the favored Heat 90-85.

Okay, the Heat didn’t have Dwyane Wade.  And Chris Bosh had an off night.  But this was the win the Bucks needed.  Except they needed it a week ago.  As fun as it was that Milwaukee played giant killer for one night and likely ruined any chance the Heat had at a number one seed, it was all for not.  The Pacers beat the Wizards Wednesday night, knocking the Bucks out of the playoffs.

The season that was supposed to have been a dream, has been a nightmare, and now it’s over.  But at least it ended on a positive note.

Offense

Eight different Bucks players connected on at least three field goals Wednesday night, as Milwaukee displayed the kind of balance and bench production that has largely eluded the team this season.  John Salmons led the way with 17 points, but it was Luc Mbah a Moute’s scrappy style of play that set the tone for Milwaukee.  Just one game after dropping a number of passes and looking out of sync, Mbah a Moute helped the Bucks off to quick start, scoring 10 of his 14 points in the first quarter, as the Bucks jumped out to a 25-15 lead after one.

• While it was important that Mbah a Moute got going early, it was equally as crucial that someone made some shots late, as the Bucks have struggled to close out games all season.  Against the Heat, Carlos Delfino stepped up.  Delfino made two crucial threes in the fourth, one with 2:06 remaining to put the Bucks up two and one with just 24.8 to go that gave the Bucks a four point lead, and essentially the game.

• As much as the next guy, I understand the value of a win.  It’s fun to see the Bucks beat the Heat.  But there’s more to this whole thing at this point than just winning games.  So it’s a bummer to see a Bucks win, but largely ineffective games from both Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings.  The Building Blocks combined to shoot just six for 16.  Bogut did his thing defensively, as he always does, with 10 rebounds and four blocks.  But against a weak Miami front line, his three of seven effort doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Defense

Against teams with a superstar like LeBron James, it’s best just to try to weather his storm and survive.  The Bucks did that well Wednesday.  James got loose for 12 third quarter points as the game began to feel like it was in his hands, but the Bucks didn’t fold up.  They did their best to apply enough pressure on James to convert him from scorer to passer.  James can pass as well as anyone, but every team in the league will live with Bosh and Mike Bibby trying to beat them instead of James.  James’s teammates couldn’t deliver and the Bucks accomplished their goal.

• With a few very strong offensive rebounders, typically the Bucks fair well on second chance points.  But a key for Milwaukee against the Heat, even more than second chance points, was their ability to force and score off turnovers.  The Bucks scored 18 points on 16 Miami turnovers.  With Delfino and Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee typically does well in forcing turnovers, and as the season has gone on, it has gotten better and better about turning those opportunities into points.

Final Thoughts

I read what I tweet, what I write and I see how negative I can be.  I hate to come off as so negative.  I know many people were excited about this win, and that’s cool.  I wish I could feel the same.  But having watched the Bucks struggle so mightily this season and completely fail at establishing anything consistent, it’s tough for me to get too pumped over a meaningless win in early April, even if it is against the Heat.  Especially since this was the night Milwaukee was officially ousted from the playoff race.

So when you see me making sarcastic remarks about victories or plead for losses, just know that’s how I deal with the losing.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com. Follow him on Twitter. Become a fan on Facebook (right sidebar).

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Enemy: The Heat Index

Point Guard
Keyon Dooling vs. Carlos Arroyo

Arroyo struggled mightily when these teams met earlier this week, hitting just one of seven shots.  That probably will have no bearing on how he’ll preform this evening, but hopefully it doesn’t mean the law of averages catches up with him and allows him to make six of seven shots tonight.  Really though, Arroyo has been a lights out shooter this year, thriving while getting one open shot after the next when he shares the court with “them.”  Dooling’s  3-point shooting has taken quite a hit since he’s been starting for the injured Brandon Jennings: just seven of 30 in eight games.  Milwaukee could use a couple from him tonight.

Advantage: Heat

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Dwyane Wade

Two games, two explosions for Wade against the Bucks.  He’ll likely make it three for three tonight and I’ll likely curse his name each time he baits a Bucks defender into fouling him or crashes into someone in the paint and ends up on the free throw line.  He’s real good at that kind of thing.  And I hate him for it. (Note: I don’t really hate him, because I used to love Marquette, but I don’t love watching him destroy the Bucks.)  John Salmons will play tonight, but I’d be foolish to try and predict whether he’ll be effective or not.  Dionne Warwick’s psychic friends (or as Jim Chones may call her, Dionne Warrick) couldn’t even predict that.

Advantage: Heat

Small Forward
Luc Mbah a Moute vs. LeBron James

Mbah a Moute wants to be physical with James and does a good job of not giving him much room to operate.  Still, this is LeBron James and he’s going to have a big night that includes a fastbreak dunk or two and some nice passes to go with his customary three or four finishes in traffic at the rim.  Meanwhile, we’ll all hope Mbah a Moute makes the one to three open jumpers he ends up with.  We’ll probably hope that in vain though.

Advantage: Heat

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Chris Bosh

One of these days, Ilyasova will stop biting on pump-fakes as often as he gets defenders to jump on his own fakes.  Until that day comes though, defenders will continue to blow by him with ease and end up either A. getting blocked by Bogut; B. drawing a foul on Bogut; or C. making a layup.  That’s essentially every Ilyasova defensive possession, or at least a lot of them.  Bosh was very good in the game earlier this week between these two, but little more than a decoy that occasionally made a jumper in the first game.  He’s certainly capable of anything and will more likely have a game like the second one and not the first one.

Advantage: Heat

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Zyndrunas Ilgauskas

And finally, here we are.  The one spot in which the Bucks have the opportunity for an advantage.  The word opportunity in that last sentence is important though, as Bogut’s unpredictable offense could leave the Bucks wanting more on any given night.  Against Orlando and to a lesser extent Miami this week, Bogut’s touch was largely absent.  He wasn’t hitting his short hook and floaters with much frequency and failed to even get many looks on post ups against the Heat.  He was catching around the rim for dunks and tipping in misses some against Miami, but didn’t have the impact he’s capable of on either side of the ball really.  In a game where Milwaukee is so heavily out-talented, Bogut NEEDS to step up for the Bucks to win.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Corey Maggette, Earl Boykins, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Larry Sanders and Jon Brockman

vs.

James Jones, Mario Chalmers, Juwan Howard and Joel Anthony

Milwaukee’s other edge rests with their bench.  While offensively challenged at times, if Maggette is playing as well in short bursts as he did against the Magic, this is a group that can swing the game in the Bucks favor.  Sanders was incredible against the Magic, scoring 15 points and grabbing eight rebounds, but the real key for Milwaukee will be Boykins and CD-R.  If they are making threes and sparking the Bucks offense around Maggette or the regulars, Milwaukee has the shooting to stay with the Heat.  That’s a big IF of course.  Speaking of shooting, Milwaukee will need to stay glued to Jones all night long.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Heat 106 – Bucks 94

It’s hard to predict that the Bucks will be effective on offense, at least until they can do so on a more consistent basis.  And while Milwaukee limited the Heat for an entire game near the start of December and three quarters in Miami, their offense is so explosive that Milwaukee will have a hard time duplicating the defensive efforts they’ve had against them so far this season.  A lot of things would have to go right for Milwaukee to stay in this game and even more would have to go right for the Bucks to win.  It’s unlikely, but crazier things have happened.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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It took a while, but eventually, the Miami Heat were the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks were the Milwaukee Bucks.  That much was reflected in the shooting percentages, and the final score, and the fast break points and the final stats at the rim.

It was a bizarre twist on how the game ended up looking like most thought it would though.

Milwaukee led 68-67 with 1:21 remaining in the third quarter when Coach Scott Skiles stepped on to the court, apparently to argue a shot clock violation he thought existed but was not called.  Carlos Arroyo happened to be moving to the same spot Skiles was standing and the two collided.  A technical foul was called and instead of the Heat missing a shot and the Bucks rebounding with a one-point lead, the Heat suddenly made a free throw, reloaded and made a three.

The Heat led 71-68 and wouldn’t trail again, going on a 32-13 run before the score evened out a bit in garbage time.

Skiles gaffe obviously isn’t solely to blame for the Heat winning or going on a monster run — they are the Miami Heat after all — but it did illustrate how a team must be virtually perfect against such a talented squad if they hope to stay in the game for four quarters.  The smallest of errors can ignite such a powerful team.

Prior to the 3-point shot James Jones made in the corner after that technical foul, the Heat hadn’t made one all game.  After that three, they made three more.  Even the best teams sometimes just need to see a ball go through the hoop before the flood gates open.  And when those gates open for a team like the Heat, they are virtually impossible to close. 

Offense

During the broadcast, Bucks announcer Jim Paschke noted that Milwaukee’s coaches had them working on finishing at the rim prior to Tuesday’s game.  That made sense, since heading into the game the Bucks were the worst team in the league at converting on attempts at the rim.  Despite the practice, they remain a work in progress.  Milwaukee got to the rim more often than opponents typically do against the Heat, but still had trouble finishing.  Milwaukee shot just 10-21 at the rim, despite a number of open looks.  Their night could have easily been summed up by one Chris Douglas-Roberts drive late.

After initially failing to get much traction heading towards the paint, CD-R made a gorgeous change of direction move and found himself wide open for a reverse lay in.  But he left it short and saw the Heat grab the rebound.  Such was the evening.

• Milwaukee again failed to shoot 40%, though they did spend the majority of the first three quarters over the number.  Milwaukee made just seven of 20 fourth quarter shots, sealing the deal for the Heat and keeping the Bucks sub-40% in a loss once again.

• Despite a number of crafty drives that left him in good position, John Salmons finished just six of 18 from the field and three of seven at the rim.  He got past the very difficult perimeter defense of the Heat on a number of occasions and had to contort and twist as he got into the paint and to the rim, causing his poor finishing percentage.  Overall though, his effort was terrific on both ends of the floor and he continued to shoot well from deep (2-4 3FG).

Defense

A key part of Milwaukee’s ability to hold off the Heat for the better part of three quarters was how well they took care of the ball.  Six of Milwaukee’s nine turnovers came in the second half and nine of the Heat’s 11 points off of them came with them.  Once the Heat are able to force a turnover or two, they turn into some serious ball hawks.  Dwyane Wade and Lebron James gambled more frequently in the second half and sometimes Milwaukee was able to make them pay, but more often than not they were able to cover each others mistakes and keep the pressure on Milwaukee.

• Twice in the second half Wade was able to draw fouls on Milwaukee defenders off pump fakes outside the 3-point line.  Wade’s quickness and decisive fakes make it nearly impossible to avoid biting a little bit and he’s one of the league’s very finest players at making defenders pay for jumping on his fake.

• While Milwaukee struggled to finish all night, the Heat shot 13-22 at the rim, led by Wade’s six of nine effort.

• 35 of Miami’s 37 free throws were taken by James, Wade or Chris Bosh.
  

Final Thoughts

Effort wise, that was a very good game for Milwaukee.  Shooting wise, it was a good three quarters.  Milwaukee’s defense isn’t quite good enough to get by with an offense that plays three quarters against an elite team though.  When Milwaukee is hitting shots and finishing, they look like they can play with anybody.  But the trick for the better teams is that they execute how they want and finish for four quarters.  Milwaukee isn’t quite there yet.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Role players playing well and good guard play.  Monday night, in an 88-78 win for the visiting team, the Heat had it and the Bucks didn’t.

Obviously the Heat can count on Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. They certainly got things started with a bang, alternating high flying dunks and tap ins early in the game, but it wasn’t just the two of them dunking all game.  While the two of them were typically impressive, the play of lesser known Carlos Arroyo was key in holding off the Bucks.  As a good role player should do, Arroyo played to his strengths Monday.  He moved the ball, he found open spaces and he didn’t hesitate to shoot when he had an open look.  The Heat guard made all six of his shot attempts, two of which came from 3-point territory, and all of his four free throws en route to 18 points.

His play meant Miami saw most of their guards playing well and one of their important role players thriving in his role.

Milwaukee is still waiting on those two things.  Once again, the Bucks looked hesitant and unsure of themselves.  For a team that doesn’t shoot the 3-point shot very well, Milwaukee needs the players who are capable of hitting it to be aggressive and confident.  Their role players whose role is to hit 3-pointers have to be ready and willing to fire away.  But that wasn’t the case once again on Monday.

Time after time Ersan Ilyasova swung the ball away instead of shooting wide open threes.  John Salmons would catch on the perimeter with a good look and pump fake defenders that weren’t there and drive to the middle where multiple defenders awaited him.  Keyon Dooling always kept the ball moving crisply, but whenever Milwaukee needed him to shoot, he came up empty.  Sometimes it’s hard to blame Ilyasova and Salmons them for passing up on open threes though … like when they do actually shoot them.  Ilyasova short-armed his two attempts miserably and Salmons managed to air-ball one wide open look.  Such are the struggles of a team that shoots 34.6% on the evening.

As has often been the case this season, things didn’t go so well for Ilyasova, Salmons and Dooling, two players who meant a great deal to the successes of last year’s team and  a third replacing a player who meant as much.  For those wondering how things have spun so far out of control, so fast, checking out the play of these three would be a good start.

Offense

So much for the aggressive and productive Andrew Bogut of Saturday night.  After having the game of his season, Bogut was held in check by Miami’s front court tandem Zyndrunas Ilgauskas and Erick Dampier. Yeah, that front court tandem.  Bogut struggled to get good position all night and only made four of his 12 shots in scoring 11 points.  When he was getting shots in the post, they were predominantly ones that had him fading away or pushing the ball at the hoop rather than shooting it.  All the confidence he had against the Magic on Saturday seemed world’s away.  When Milwaukee is unable to establish Bogut as the centerpiece of their offense, they end up looking helpless offensively more often than not, and that was again the case Monday night.

• When Bogut is ineffective on offense, the offense typically falls on the narrow shoulders of Brandon Jennings, and that was again the case against the Heat.  Jennings led the team in shot attempts, but made just five of 16 shots (2-6 3FG 1-2 FT) on his way to 13 points.  The night was an exercise in frustration for Jennings.  He couldn’t get his floater to fall, he couldn’t get the benefit of the doubt on a number of drives to the rim through contact and he even missed a dunk.  For the first time in his NBA career, Jennings looked to dunk in traffic after beating Chris Bosh baseline with the Bucks down seven in the fourth quarter.  He rose up and had a great look, but saw the ball carom off the rim and into the waiting hands of the Miami Heat.  It was that kind of night for Jennings.

• “Every time he caught it he wanted to score, he took a couple crazy shots, but in general he’s getting a lot better and we’ll keep putting him out there.”  If you watched the game, there’s really no question who Scott Skiles is referring to in that quote.  Early on, Larry Sanders was quite the chucker.  He settled down as the game went on, but Milwaukee probably isn’t going to operate at their maximum efficiency offensively when Sanders and Bogut attempt the same number of shots.  The rookie actually fared better than Bogut offensively, hitting five of his 12 attempts, including the highlight up above.  Sanders scored 10 points, grabbed six rebounds and blocked two shots, but still needs to refrain from biting on every pump fake and trying to score out of the post every time he gets a touch.  There’s a lot to like about him though, which says more about him than it does about a lot of guys at this point in the season.

• When Milwaukee’s offense went stagnant, Corey Maggette did his part to bail them out.  In a performance indicative of what he is capable of, Maggette made six of 12 shots, hit seven of nine free throws and scored 20 points in a very efficient manner.  That’s the guy the Bucks thought they’d be getting every night, not the one shooting less than 40%.

Defense

It’s hard to have many qualms with how the Bucks played defensively.  Regardless of how a team covers James/Wade/Bosh, they’re going to get theirs, and they combined for 58 of Miami’s 88 points.  Where Milwaukee saw themselves fall especially short against the Heat though, was on the glass.  Milwaukee is a traditionally strong rebounding team this year, but saw the Heat out-rebound them, 48-35.  Especially frustrating were the 11 offensive rebounds Miami corralled, largely through tap outs.  Milwaukee limited the Heat’s second chance points effectively though, allowing just nine on four of eight shooting.

• With Wade being one of the foremost practitioners of the jump pass, the Heat will turn the ball over some.  They gave it up 18 times Monday night, but Milwaukee was only able to turn those 18 turnovers into 14 points.  As has often been the case for the Bucks this season, the Bucks won the turnover battle, but did very little with their victory.  More possessions don’t help the Bucks if they are unable to convert on them.

Final Thoughts

When this game was still in question, it was interesting how things played out.  Miami led only by three roughly halfway through the fourth quarter after an Ilyasova jump shot and failed to get the ball to either Wade or James.  Instead, Arroyo and Bosh ran the pick and roll, and didn’t get a very good look.  Bosh had to rush a jumper to beat the buzzer and Milwaukee looked to be in good shape as it bounced off the rim.  But then Wade snatched the offensive rebound away from Chris Douglas-Roberts and reminded us all that he was the best player on the court on this night and that he would not be denied a win.  James followed with a made shot and Wade did likewise on the next possession after a missed three from Jennings.  And that would be the difference.

The Heat’s stars made plays and made shots when they needed to/wanted to.  The Bucks stars were incapable of doing the same, regardless of how much they needed it or wanted it.  That’s simply the difference between a team like the Heat and a team like the Bucks.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Enemy: The Heat Index

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Carlos Arroyo

Over his past five games, Jennings is averaging 25 points, 5.4 assists, 4 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Not too shabby a line.  Best of all is his 43.7% from the field over that stretch.  Over the course of his young career, shooting percentage has often been a thorn in Jennings’ side.  One five game stretch doesn’t change that, and he’s still a touch under 40% shooting on the season (39.8%), but perhaps this is a sign that things are beginning to come around for Jennings.  He played in four of those five games without Andrew Bogut and in Bogut’s return had one of the finer games of his entire NBA career in scoring 27 points, dishing six assists and grabbing seven rebounds.  He even hit Bogut on the pick and roll a few times, something he’s been struggling with.  Arroyo is really a point guard in name only at this point, as James handles the majority of the play-making duties for the Heat. He’s been a reliable shooter though, hitting on 13 of his 27 3-point attempts this season.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Dwyane Wade

With Charlie Bell enjoying the break from winter in California this season, who will step up and be Milwaukee’s “Wade Stopper”?  It’ll have to be Salmons.  While he’s struggling offensively to find his footing, he’s still an effective defender who knows where he’s supposed to be for the Bucks defensively.  Look for him to be helping hard off of Wade on drives by James; Milwaukee will likely be more than willing to give up open looks outside to both Wade and James to try and stifle penetration.  Regardless of what he does defensively, if Salmons has another off night offensively, it will be virtually impossible for the Bucks to pull this one out.  He played well in Bogut’s return, possibly because of the pressure taken off of him, scoring 16 points on seven of 16 shooting.  Milwaukee needs another high percentage outing from Salmons.

Advantage: Heat

Small Forward
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Lebron James

Mbah a Moute isn’t a cure all for James.  It’s not as simple as tossing the long armed Prince on the King and then writing off James as a contributor for the evening.  Mbah a Moute was on the court a few years back when James dropped 55 on the Bucks.  He remembers what that was like.  As it often did in Cleveland, the offense is running with James acting as the primary ball-handler frequently in Miami and Mbah a Moute will have his hands full trying to cut off James from penetrating.  This is one of those nights in which the Bucks can live with getting virtually nothing out of Mbah a Moute as an offensive small forward, if only because his defensive contributions will be extremely important.  He won’t stop James, b but the goal, as it always is with the NBA’s elite talents, will be to make him work for everything he’s getting.

Advantage: Heat

Power Forward
Larry Sanders (Only if Gooden doesn’t play) vs. Chris Bosh

Recently Coach Skiles said about Sanders, that he’s been good in first halves and not-so-good in second halves, as is the case with a lot of young players.  That may explain why Sanders sat for the entire fourth quarter against the Magic on Saturday.  Down the stretch, Skiles is likely to ride players he feels he can trust more, like Ersan Ilyasova.  So don’t expect much to change from Saturday to Monday with regards to Sanders minutes if Gooden is still inactive with plantar faciitis.  He’ll start, but he probably won’t finish.  Sanders certainly physically matches up better with Bosh, but Milwaukee will need its wits about them if they want to stay in this one and for every time he’s complemented Sanders development this season, Skiles has been quick to note that he has an eternity to go as far as understanding what’s going on around him goes.  Bosh has long tormented the Bucks with his silky mid-range jumper and quick feet.  Sanders has the length to bother that jumper if their isolated against each other and Ilyasova has the knack for charge taking that can bother Bosh.  Both are considerably less talented than Miami’s last third of the big three though.

Advantage: Heat

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Zyndrunas Ilgauskas

Bogut’s coming off a terrific 31 point, 18 rebound performance against the Magic’s backup center Marcin Gortat. Ilgauskas isn’t any more a deterrent at the hoop as Gortat was and Milwaukee will absolutely look to establish their post presence early again.  Orlando did not double Bogut at all Saturday and felt the effects.  I wouldn’t expect the Heat to make the same mistake with their long and incredibly fast perimeter defenders.  Passing out of the double has been as much of an issue for Bogut this season as making open shots have been for his teammates.  If Miami is doubling hard, both Bogut and his teammates will need to find answers they haven’t had all season.  If Miami is giving Bogut time to make his moves, another high shooting percentage night from him will go a long way towards keeping the Bucks in this one.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Corey Maggette, Ersan Ilyasova, Keyon Dooling and Chris Douglas-Roberts

vs.

James Jones, Eddie House, Joel Anthony, Erick Dampier and Mario Chalmers

Despite finding a way to win otherwise, the Bucks shot just one of eight from 3-point range against the Magic and only Jennings attempted more than one three.  Ilyasova is the most likely candidate to help out in that regard and bang home a couple of threes, but that sporadic Keyon Dooling good shooting effort would be incredibly helpful against the Heat.  The Heat bench is made up mainly of player who shoot threes (Jones and House) and players who foul opposing centers and anyone else in the paint (Anthony and Dampier).  The latter plays into the waiting hands of Maggette who could have a field day against the Heat reserve big men.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Heat 92 – Bucks 86

The return of Bogut, recent consistency of Jennings and infusion of Douglas-Roberts gives the Bucks at least something resembling an NBA offense right now.  And when Bogut’s in the lineup, Milwaukee’s defense is without question one of the finest units in the league.  So there’s reason to believe that this won’t look like a 13-8 powerhouse Heat team rolling over another opponent far below .500.  But there hasn’t been enough evidence yet that Milwaukee can outplay an elite opponent for 48 minutes.  Maybe this will be the night, but I doubt it.  A close game in which Milwaukee plays well offensively would be something to build on and the Bucks are still at the stage in which they are looking for framework at this point in the season.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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So perhaps Milwaukee should see it as a compliment that rumors have placed Kelvin Sampson in both Cleveland and Los Angeles.

From Adrian Wojnarowski at Yahoo! Sports:

As the Cleveland Cavaliers sift potential coaching candidates, general manager Danny Ferry has made calls checking on Milwaukee Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson, sources tell Yahoo! Sports.

and

The Clippers are also showing an interest in Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson, sources tell Y! Sampson has relationship with Blake Griffin.

At this stage, it’s not clear how sincere or how high up on the Cavaliers and Clippers lists Sampson may be, but it was only a matter of time before the Bucks assistant coaches started getting feelers. With the exception of Adrian Griffin, every assistant on the Bucks staff has been a head coach at some level (Joe Wolf was a D-League head coach, Sampson college and Jim Boylan in the NBA). Sampson’s work with Brandon Jennings in particular seemed to garner him much notoriety, starting with Jennings’ surprisingly effective summer league performance under Sampson’s tutelage as head coach. But if Sampson were to get his first NBA head honcho gig of his career, I’d expect it to be Cleveland before the Clippers.

His relationship with Blake Griffin in cited by Wojnarowski on Twitter, but his connections in Cleveland run deeper.

After his dismissal at Indiana, Sampson worked as an adviser to the San Antonio Spurs, getting his feet wet in the NBA and bracing himself for a career after college. There are few betters ways to rehabilitate one’s career than with the San Antonio Spurs and their uber-respected organization. In fact, where did Cleveland’s last coach, Mike Brown, spend time as an assistant before his head job with Cleveland? You guessed it, San Antonio. General manager Danny Ferry spent the last three years of his playing career in San Antonio before working in their front office prior to taking the job as Cleveland’s general manager.

The roots are there for this deal to go down.

But the catch would be that Sampson may not be the big name coach Cleveland is looking to bring in to appease Lebron James. Sampson’s experience at multiple levels and impressive pedigree could be enough to persuade James that he can get the job done. This one bears watching as it develops.

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Another sign that the Bucks are moving in the right direction as the playoffs are nearing was Scott Skiles’ post game reaction to a question about whether or not he was happy with the team’s effort in a Wednesday night loss to Cleveland.

“It’s not that I don’t care about that right now, but we should have won that game.  We gave them that game.”

Moral victories no longer have a stall in the Bucks locker room, be it on the road or at home.  These days, the Bucks are only interested in actual, real life, concrete victories.  Citing a botched layup attempt rather than a dunk attempt and a missed open three, Skiles was clearly annoyed and it may have had to do with more than just his players’ execution.

The Bucks have had problems with allowing free throw attempts all year, but those numbers reached a new low Wednesday night.  The Cavs attempted 45 free throws to the Bucks nine.  The Bucks previous largest free throw attempt deficit this season was 22.  An exhausted and exasperated John Salmons looked none too pleased about it after the game.

“It’s a discouraging stat.  Nine to 45?  That’s got to be a record.  I don’t want to lose my money.”

Part of Salmons appeal to the Bucks has been his knack for getting to the free-throw line and he was at it again Wednesday, finishing 7-7 from the line.  The problem was the two free throws the rest of the team attempted.

The foul differential was silly, but I’m hesitant to throw out the “BOO STERN OMG THEY FIXED IT FOR LEBRON OMG!” card.  Milwaukee is generally a team that doesn’t attack the hoop a lot, except for Salmons.  And Salmons got his from the line.  Andrew Bogut scores the majority of the Bucks points in the paint and he is constantly drifting away from the hoop on his shots.  Most post scorers get tons of points from the line, but while Bogut is a classic post-up scorer, he doesn’t rely on fakes to get into his opponents.  His superior touch allows him  to glide across the lane moving parallel with the hoop, this doesn’t leave defenders crashing into him very often.

Milwaukee worked for everything they got and while it was valiant effort, they came up short.  Two years ago that would have been exciting, a year ago it may have been acceptable, but now it’s just a disappointing loss.  Welcome to the top half of the conference Milwaukee.

Offense

As lopsided as the free-throws were, the Bucks still had some chances in the last minute.  But a turnover by Salmons off his knee after a strip and a pass to Lebron James by Luke Ridnour with the Bucks down three in the final seconds sealed the deal.  The Bucks have been so successful of late largely because of their sharing of and taking care of the ball.  Oddly enough, it was a carelessness that undid them in the end on Wednesday.

But honestly, if you give Lebron a chance at the end of the game, he’s going to make the most of it more often than not.  The Bucks were up three with two and a half minutes left when Bogut botched a layup attempt that could have made it a two possession game and had the Bucks in the driver’s seat.  Naturally, the Cavs scored the next four points and took the lead.  They are far too good a team to be given opportunities with the game on the line.

• Salmons was once again a load: 28 points (9-16 FG 3-7 3FG 7-7 FT) seven assists and five rebounds.  It’s funny that in a game hyped up as a bit of a revenge match for a team that talks too much for some people against a rookie that talks too much for some people, the best player was the quietest guy on the court.  Salmons goes about his business, rarely complaining and never puffing out his chest, but he keeps getting it done for the Bucks.  He’s been as reliable as it gets as a half court scorer and creator that can get to and finish at the rim.

• Bogut was close to matching Salmons production with another strong night: 19 points (9-17 FG 1-2 FT) to go with 12 rebounds and three blocks.  Unfortunately, the Bucks were unable to get consistent production out of a third source on Wednesday.  Sure, they got some scoring out of Ersan Ilyasova (13 and five), Kurt Thomas (10 and seven) and Luke Ridnour (13 points and 11 assists), but didn’t have a consistent third wheel to turn to.  The Bucks are operating on all cylinders when Brandon Jennings is that third guy, but he was shaky at the start and Ridnour got the call down the stretch again, as has been the case when he’s played well.

• On Sunday, the Bucks broke out the Thomas and Bogut frontcourt tandem for the first time this season and we saw it again against the Cavs.  I’ve envisioned this to be a top-notch defensive team, but against Cleveland they were a very good scoring combo inside.  The problem comes when Bogut tires.  It didn’t happen against Cleveland, but the fear of playing them together is that it makes way for a Primoz Brezec or Dan Gadzuric sighting.  That’s always a frightening thought.

Defense

The Bucks were lucky that Cleveland is such a poor free-throw shooting team.  Of their 45 free-throws, Cleveland hit just 29.  James found a wall of Bucks defenders everywhere he went, often starting with Charlie Bell (who put up a better fight than I expected) who had Bogut, Thomas and/or Ilyasova behind him.  James shot just 7-17 to get his 23 points and only made 9-13 from the free-throw line.  No, James wasn’t the biggest issue for the Bucks on Wednesday, it was his supporting cast that stepped up against the Bucks.

The Bucks Killer Delonte West had another 12 points against Milwaukee, continuing to find ways to punish Bucks defenders and Mo Williams rediscovered his jump shot in scoring 21 points on 6-12 shooting (2-5 3FG 7-8 FT).  When it wasn’t those two, it was Antawn Jamison (12 points) or J.J. Hickson (14 points) chipping in.  There was a lot of Cavs finding the bottom of the net.

Final Thoughts

As cool as this win would have been, it wasn’t the most important game of the week even.  That would be Friday’s game against the too-close-for-comfort Charlotte Bobcats.  A win in Cleveland would have been a terrific boost heading to Charlotte, but it was just not meant to be.  Tough as it may be to do, Milwaukee needs to get past this game quick, because Charlotte isn’t going to be any easier or more friendly.

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 41-32

At

Cleveland Cavaliers (Mike Brown) 58-16

Date: March 31^st, 2010

Time: 6:00 PM (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Mo Williams

Williams struggled mightily in the Cavs trip to Milwaukee in early March, scoring just seven points while shooting 3-17 from the field.  Even worse, he was dealing with a hot shooting and especially lippy version of Brandon Jennings.  Jennings, sporting a red Mohawk that had Lebron James calling him “The Rooster” torched the Cavs for 25 points and many more than 25 words for the Cavs typically chipper bench.  There was no dancing from Cleveland on that dark day in Milwaukee.  But Williams and the Cavs will surely be looking for some redemption, largely at Jennings expense Wednesday night.  Whether or not Jennings will be ready to back up the chatter from his last performance will be an interesting subplot.

Advantage: Cavaliers

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Anthony Parker

Anthony Parker is a reliable shooter and he’s got some size for a two guard.  Aside from that, there appears to be some question about whether or not the Cavs are better off with him getting minutes or the duo of Boobie Gibson and Jamario Moon.  Moon is crazy athletic and Gibson’s hitting nearly 43% of his threes, so they both offer something.  Parker kind of offers less of each of what they best offer, but more of the other things they don’t so much offer.  It’s a conundrum.  Moon might see a lot of time trying to keep Salmons from getting in the paint and to the basket, where he’s been at his best for Milwaukee this year.

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino (hopefully) vs. Lebron James

James was said to be especially displeased with Jennings display.  Watch out.

Advantage: Cavs

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Antawn Jamison

Jamison lit up Milwaukee last game, hitting shots from all over to the tune of 30 points.  I doubt he’ll replicate this performance, but he bears watching nonetheless.  Jamison has been a surprisingly good three-point shooter for the Cavs, hitting 42.9% in the month of March, but equally as surprisingly bad at the free-throw line, hitting only 39% of his freebies in the month.  LRMAM has been struggling lately, but his minutes being down probably has as much to do with an uptick in Ersan Ilyasova’s production this month as it has to do with his own shaky play.  Jamison is a good size matchup for LRMAM though.  But believe that LRMAM will see his share of minutes on Lebron Wednesday.

Advantage: Cavs

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. J.J. Hickson

Hickson’s seen some time at center with Shaquille O’Neal out of the lineup and could see some time against Bogut, but I don’t think he really wants it with Bogut down low.  Anderson Varejao is questionable for Wednesday’s game and without him Cleveland is left with only Illgauskas and Hickson to stop Bogut.  Hickson is simply too little and Big Z is simply too slow.  Bogut should have an advantage all night, if Varejao doesn’t go.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jerry Stackhouse, Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour, Charlie Bell and Kurt Thomas

Vs.

Delonte West, Leon Powe, Zydrunas Illgauskas and Jamario Moon

The Cavs have a deep bench, boasting a little size, some three point shooting and athleticism.  Plus Delonte West destroys the Bucks.  Rarely is the Bucks bench so outmanned like they will be against Cleveland Wednesday night.  And it’s the second game of a back-to-back on the road.  Sigh.  Fortunately, the Bucks got another great game out of Ilyasova against the Clippers and had a rebound game from Stackhouse.  The Bucks will need all hands on deck against the Cavs.

Advantage: Cleveland

Prediction: Cavaliers 98 – Bucks 90

Cleveland is either the best or second best team in the East.  The Bucks are somewhere between third and sixth best.  Unfortunately, the divide between the top two teams and the rest of the East is Grand Canyon sized.  Pulling this one out, against a Cavs team that may not be too pleased with the Bucks (Jennings specifically) may be too much to hope for.

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