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Posts Tagged ‘Luke Ridnour’

The arrival of free agency and what it means for the Milwaukee Bucks

June 30th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 3 comments

Beginning at 12:01 AM Thursday morning, NBA teams will be doing all kinds of embarrassing things in an attempt to lure free agents of varying talents to come spend their next three to five years with a brand new team. Email accounts for fans to write in saying how much they wish Player A would come to their team will be set up. Lavish airport ceremonies will be held. Expense accounts will explode. And in the end, a few guys will get overpaid and everyone will wish they could undo the whole thing before the player demands a trade and the organization laments the fact that they’ve made said player untradeable.

Good times. Read more…

A Preview of the Milwaukee Bucks and Free Agency

May 12th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 3 comments

Salary returning for Milwaukee: $56,068,163 (Kudos to ShamSports.com for the numbers)
Salary Cap: $58-60 million
Luxury Tax Level: Between $70-75 million (Probably at least. The NBA out did their projections it sounds like, so I’d expect the luxury tax not to fall from its current amount: $69.920 million.)

Resignable Free Agents
Luke Ridnour
John Salmons
Kurt Thomas
Jerry Stackhouse
Royal Ivey

At this point, Stackhouse and Thomas are veteran’s minimum ($1,352,181) guys and I’d say it’s no better than 50/50 that either of them will return. They played nice roles this season, but counting on them next season to contribute as much as they did this season may be a recipe for disaster. Ridnour is looking at backup point guard money, which is also known as a huge pay cut. Teams have had great success recently with younger players at the point, and while this year’s draft is not as point guard rich as last season’s, he could feel the crunch in terms of his salary. The market value for Ridnour can’t be much higher than $3 million a season.

Salmons has an extension staring him in the face that would keep him at $5.8 million this next season. He’d be wise to accept a contract that gives him four more seasons of above mid-level money, but he wouldn’t be the first player to mistakenly assume he’s worth more than he is.

If Ridnour comes back at $3 million and Salmons does the same at $5.8 million, they’ll be looking at roughly $65 million in salary, and that’s before draft picks are factored in. If Milwaukee keeps each of their three draft picks, the roster will be at 14 players (factoring in Darnell Jackson), with Royal Ivey being a possible option for the fifteenth spot.

So, free agency? I’m thinking it won’t factor heavily into Milwaukee’s plans this off-season.

But trades? Trades may once again alter the Bucks landscape. Last summer they shook things up and locked up the NBA title for San Antonio by handing them Richard Jefferson on a silver platter. What’s that? Kurt Thomas had nearly the same PER as Jefferson in the playoffs (10.0-10.9)? Oh. It’s funny how that worked out. That bold move showed that John Hammond is not afraid to make big moves over the off-season rather than stand pat and hope for development.

Who could the Bucks have some interest in this off-season (and who would I like to see them have interest in in some of the cases)?

Josh Childress

Milwaukee flirted with Childress last off-season, but was unable to get anything done. To land Childress, Childress is still a restricted free agent and he makes roughly $7 million after taxes in Europe (over $10 million in NBA money), so the hurdles Milwaukee would need to get over to work out a deal with Childress would be significant. The Bucks would likely have to work out some kind of sign and trade with the Hawks, which can only happen if Childress does not sign an offer sheet with the Bucks. Childress was last seen in the NBA in 2007-08 and would fit the Bucks as a high percentage shooter with the ability to defend and do the little things Milwaukee loves so much.

Andre Iguodala

Iguodala is signed through 2013/14 for all kinds of crazy money, over $55 million. For the suddenly rebuilding Philadelphia 76ers, that doesn’t quite add up. If they could dump him for an expiring contract and a younger player, odds are they’d love to. Michael Redd and two draft picks may get the Sixers ear as a starting point. Iggy is versatile, a good defender, athletic and capable of hitting an open three. Unfortunately, Iggy has fallen for the three in the last three years (over 300 attempts in two of the past three years while shooting roughly 30%) and hasn’t fit as a leader on a once emerging Sixers squad. He’s naturally a better fit as a supporting player and he may be thrust into too large a role on the Bucks if they weren’t able to get another star wing. His contract simply won’t allow for him to ever be a good value, something Milwaukee needs to thrive on.

Carl Landry
John Hammond acknowledged he had interest in Landry at the trade deadline. The Kings hold the third pick in the draft, prime DeMarcus Cousins territory. Jason Thompson has three years left on his contract and Landry has one. All those signs add up to the possibility that Landry could be had. At $3 million next season, Landry is a very valuable player and an expiring contract. He’s not someone who eats the ball, but he is someone who can score efficiently. He’s precisely the kind of player who would fit in Milwaukee at the power forward spot.

Brandon Bass
In each of the next three seasons, Bass will make $4 million and likely sit behind Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat (if he’s kept), Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson. If Orlando wins the title this season, they may be interested in shedding just enough payroll to stay under the luxury tax, but no one of enough value to knock them from the league’s elite. Per 36 minutes this past season, Bass averaged 16 points while shooting over 50% from the field, grabbed 7.1 rebounds and blocked 1.5 shots. His numbers suggest he could be more productive, past his allotted salary even, if given more minutes. Perhaps a combination of second round picks and lesser salaries could balance and get Bass in Milwaukee. I’d love to see Bass in a Bucks uniform.

2010 Haiku Review: Guards

May 10th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 1 comment

After a few days off to recharge my battery, I’m back with the final segment of the Haiku Reviews. Coming in the next week will be more on potential free agent targets and a draft page. Stay tuned this week.

GamesStartsPointsField Goal %Three Point %APGAssist %Steals
Brandon Jennings828215.537.137.45.729.61.3
John Salmons302819.946.738.53.315.01.1
Michael Redd181211.935.230.02.213.01.1
Luke Ridnour82010.447.838.14.031.90.7
Charlie Bell71396.538.136.51.59.80.5
Jerry Stackhouse4208.540.834.61.713.40.5
Royal Ivey1801.332.128.00.516.80.5
Jodie Meeks4104.136.218.20.67.20.3

Jodie Meeks

Shots caromed off rim
Motor never stopped running
It paid off later.

Meeks struggled mightily when given opportunities in Milwaukee, but flashed the shooting touch so many saw at Kentucky when given a more significant opportunity in Philadelphia. In baseball, people often discuss how difficult for young players to fill a utility role where they’re asked to pinch hit frequently. They simply don’t get enough reps to be successful. Well, that may have been the case for Meeks. He shot under 30% on threes for the Bucks this season, but hit nearly 40% for Philadelphia and was at 50% in his final month when his playing time ticked up. Meeks may have benefitted the Bucks more by not playing this season or getting time in the D-League. Perhaps they wouldn’t have given up on him so soon if they saw him progressing with more regular time. Milwaukee received a second round pick for Meeks, so they essential have an opportunity to start over next season and hope they’ll get a better fit. Read more…

Twelve Minutes of Hell

May 1st, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt Comments off

With 3:42 left in the second quarter, John Salmons hit a jumper.

In the next 12:03 of basketball time, and what seemed like eternity in real time, Milwaukee saw one more basket, a Carlos Delfino made layup, in Friday night’s game six loss. That’s the equivalent of just over one quarter of Friday night’s game in which Milwaukee scored a grand total of one hoop. And it’s not like Atlanta was cooperating and staying out of the bottom of the net as well. No, they scored 23 points in this stretch, turned a seven point deficit into a 12-point lead and effectively put away the Milwaukee Bucks hopes of winning game six.

So what happened?

During this brutal stretch, Milwaukee attempted three layups (one of which was Delfino’s make), two shots inside 10-feet and 14 attempted jump shots, zero of which went in. The beginnings of this ominous run were telling.

On three consecutive possessions, one for Salmons, Delfino and Brandon Jennings each, Mike Bibby was isolated on a Bucks player who had some room to operate. And on three consecutive possessions, those Bucks players chose to pull up for jump shots of varying degrees of difficulty. Both Salmons and Delfino were off balance for shorter shots, while Jennings attempted a three with more balance and space. But why Bucks players are pulling up for shots with Mike Bibby on them, instead of attacking him and making him defend at the rim is beyond me.

From there Milwaukee twice got some penetration that led to kick out passes for open shots. Unfortunately, the recipient of those passes on both occasions was Dan Gadzuric. On consecutive Milwaukee possessions, Gadzuric took jump shots from beyond the short corner that scorekeepers apparently didn’t even bother to chart the distance of. If anything, they should just have put “Dan Gadzuric misses too far away jumper”. Even when the Bucks had some of the execution they wanted, it wasn’t the right player taking the shot.

Mind you, this is all before Atlanta went zone.

Milwaukee actually had a nice enough start to the second half, the Delfino layup, an okay three-point opportunity for Jennings and a cut for a layup that was blocked by Josh Smith for Salmons, but from there, the Bucks looked lost and confused.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute got called for three in the key, hanging out while Jennings failed to successfully penetrate a switch. Then on a fast break, Mbah a Moute was at the center of another turnover when he ran through Josh Smith. John Salmons then missed on a jumper he’s probably made more than half the time this season, but couldn’t find Friday, before an offensive rebound led to a Mbah a Moute jumper that no one rooting for Milwaukee wanted to see.

The pressure was mounting at this point and the Bucks looked like they were cracking.

The lead had officially been lost by the next long jumper from Salmons, and not even a hustle play by Ersan Ilyasova (he hustled to a loose ball and drew a foul on Josh Smith) could get them going: he turned it over after the inbound on a travel.

Milwaukee followed that turnover with another, a bad pass by Luke Ridnour which led to the Hawks first two fast break points of the game and three consecutive missed threes. Two of which were taken while the Hawks were sitting at four fouls with over six minutes to go in the third quarter. At that point, the game five parade to the foul line that saved Milwaukee seemed like a billion years ago. The Bucks were steadfastly refusing to penetrate and get into the lane, pulling up for jumper after jumper.

And it wasn’t so much the Hawks zone that seemed to be getting to the Bucks. There was lots of talk after the game about the Hawks zone stifling Milwaukee and getting them out of their comfort zone, but the Bucks willingness to settle for jumpers when they weren’t hitting them and Atlanta was sitting on four fouls was what really did Milwaukee in. All the good things Milwaukee had done in attacking the switches and penetrating on bigger Hawks defenders had gone out the window. John Salmons resorted to launching jumpers left and right (0-5 during the run) and Brandon Jennings looked like he was playing in the biggest game in his life, not like he was just out there having fun as he so often does.

If Milwaukee found a way to hit three or four of their shots, the entire game could have been different. There have been stretches all year when the Bucks couldn’t buy a bucket, just as their have been stretches post-John Salmons in which they heated up and couldn’t miss. It’s difficult to derive much from one horrible stretch, other than a reinforcement of the idea that when players are missing shots, attacking the rim is never a bad idea. Especially when the other team is in the bonus.

That’s the one thing that is most disappointing about the Bucks two points in twelve minutes and the thing they’ll need to take with them into game seven. Don’t let Atlanta off the hook. When they’re fouling, punish them and when your team is missing shots, don’t punish yourselves by continuing to chuck them up there.

Game the Sixth: Opportunity Knocks

April 30th, 2010 Jeremy Schmidt 1 comment

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-2

vs.

Atlanta Hawks (Mike Woodson) 2-3

Date: 4/30/2010
Time: 6:00 (CST)
TV: ESPN & FS Wisconsin

The Breakdown

By game six in a seven game playoff series, there are no secrets any more. Both teams know what their opponent wants to do, both teams know what their own teams must do to win. By game six, it simply comes down to which team’s will is stronger, who’s better at imposing their game on the opponent. Typically it’s a no-brainer in my mind that this is where talent comes out on top.

But it’s not that simple anymore.

Milwaukee has so blurred the lines of talent in this series, that I’m not sure we can truly measure the more talented team. The common perception thus far has been this series has been more Atlanta blowing it than Milwaukee taking it. I’m not buying that. Milwaukee isn’t a pretty team and they don’t have great offensive statistics, but what happened to that old axiom that defense and rebounding win when it slows down in the playoffs. Have we all forgotten that?

This series has been a testament to the difficulty we have in measuring defensive abilities and hustle. When Milwaukee holds Atlanta to at the rim shooting percentages of 48%, 41% and 58%, all under their season average of 63%, it still is spun more as Hawks missing layups rather than Milwaukee challenging them. Something changed after the first two games in this series and Milwaukee imposed their will on Atlanta.

So while we’ve seen all kinds of statistical advances over the last few years, we’re still not quite there yet. We can’t accurately measure each aspect of every game. Sometimes, you just have to see it to believe it. If you’ve watched the last three games of this series, I have a hard time you can honestly believe the Hawks are the superior team. 82 games worth of regular season data may indicate otherwise, but the playoffs are a different animal.

An animal the Bucks could tame this evening. Read more…