Box Score/Recap/Enemy

It took a while, but eventually, the Miami Heat were the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks were the Milwaukee Bucks.  That much was reflected in the shooting percentages, and the final score, and the fast break points and the final stats at the rim.

It was a bizarre twist on how the game ended up looking like most thought it would though.

Milwaukee led 68-67 with 1:21 remaining in the third quarter when Coach Scott Skiles stepped on to the court, apparently to argue a shot clock violation he thought existed but was not called.  Carlos Arroyo happened to be moving to the same spot Skiles was standing and the two collided.  A technical foul was called and instead of the Heat missing a shot and the Bucks rebounding with a one-point lead, the Heat suddenly made a free throw, reloaded and made a three.

The Heat led 71-68 and wouldn’t trail again, going on a 32-13 run before the score evened out a bit in garbage time.

Skiles gaffe obviously isn’t solely to blame for the Heat winning or going on a monster run — they are the Miami Heat after all — but it did illustrate how a team must be virtually perfect against such a talented squad if they hope to stay in the game for four quarters.  The smallest of errors can ignite such a powerful team.

Prior to the 3-point shot James Jones made in the corner after that technical foul, the Heat hadn’t made one all game.  After that three, they made three more.  Even the best teams sometimes just need to see a ball go through the hoop before the flood gates open.  And when those gates open for a team like the Heat, they are virtually impossible to close.  Read more…

Recap/Box Score/Enemy

Role players playing well and good guard play.  Monday night, in an 88-78 win for the visiting team, the Heat had it and the Bucks didn’t.

Obviously the Heat can count on Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. They certainly got things started with a bang, alternating high flying dunks and tap ins early in the game, but it wasn’t just the two of them dunking all game.  While the two of them were typically impressive, the play of lesser known Carlos Arroyo was key in holding off the Bucks.  As a good role player should do, Arroyo played to his strengths Monday.  He moved the ball, he found open spaces and he didn’t hesitate to shoot when he had an open look.  The Heat guard made all six of his shot attempts, two of which came from 3-point territory, and all of his four free throws en route to 18 points.

His play meant Miami saw most of their guards playing well and one of their important role players thriving in his role.

Milwaukee is still waiting on those two things.  Once again, the Bucks looked hesitant and unsure of themselves.  For a team that doesn’t shoot the 3-point shot very well, Milwaukee needs the players who are capable of hitting it to be aggressive and confident.  Their role players whose role is to hit 3-pointers have to be ready and willing to fire away.  But that wasn’t the case once again on Monday.

Time after time Ersan Ilyasova swung the ball away instead of shooting wide open threes.  John Salmons would catch on the perimeter with a good look and pump fake defenders that weren’t there and drive to the middle where multiple defenders awaited him.  Keyon Dooling always kept the ball moving crisply, but whenever Milwaukee needed him to shoot, he came up empty.  Sometimes it’s hard to blame Ilyasova and Salmons them for passing up on open threes though … like when they do actually shoot them.  Ilyasova short-armed his two attempts miserably and Salmons managed to air-ball one wide open look.  Such are the struggles of a team that shoots 34.6% on the evening.

As has often been the case this season, things didn’t go so well for Ilyasova, Salmons and Dooling, two players who meant a great deal to the successes of last year’s team and  a third replacing a player who meant as much.  For those wondering how things have spun so far out of control, so fast, checking out the play of these three would be a good start. Read more…

Enemy: The Heat Index

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Carlos Arroyo

Over his past five games, Jennings is averaging 25 points, 5.4 assists, 4 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Not too shabby a line.  Best of all is his 43.7% from the field over that stretch.  Over the course of his young career, shooting percentage has often been a thorn in Jennings’ side.  One five game stretch doesn’t change that, and he’s still a touch under 40% shooting on the season (39.8%), but perhaps this is a sign that things are beginning to come around for Jennings.  He played in four of those five games without Andrew Bogut and in Bogut’s return had one of the finer games of his entire NBA career in scoring 27 points, dishing six assists and grabbing seven rebounds.  He even hit Bogut on the pick and roll a few times, something he’s been struggling with.  Arroyo is really a point guard in name only at this point, as James handles the majority of the play-making duties for the Heat. He’s been a reliable shooter though, hitting on 13 of his 27 3-point attempts this season.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…

Without Andrew Bogut…

• …it’s an understatement to say the Bucks aren’t the same.  Offensively, there was very little room for shooters to operate and the guards had no release valve when they drew extra defenders on penetration.

• …defensively, Milwaukee was equally disastrous.  If I had a dollar for every time a Bucks defender flew by or fouled their man biting on a pump-fake, I’d have a steak dinner coming to me.  Between the poor close out efforts and the lack of interior defense in lieu of Bogut, the Heat ended up at the free-throw line all night Friday (25-28 FT) and made the most of their opportunities inside (34 points in the paint on 17-22 FG).

• …Dwyane Wade was able to get wherever he wanted on the court.  Charlie Bell may have been called the “Wade Stopper” earlier this year, but he had nothing for Wade without Bogut behind him.  Wade finished with the easiest 30 points he’ll ever have (9-14 FG 1-2 3FG 11-12 FT) and sprinkled in seven rebounds and assists for good measure.  He carved up Milwaukee’s defense the entire night.

• …the Bucks were forced to play Primoz Brezec and Dan Gadzuric a combined 32 minutes.  I’m not exaggerating or using hyperbole when I say that Brezec tripped over his own feet and fell down within two minutes of entering the game.  I’m also not exaggerating when I tell you Gadzuric didn’t take a shot outside ten feet, yet finished 2-7 from the field.  Oh, and Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem (the Heat centers most of the night) combined for 25 rebounds and 18 points (6-8 FG 6-8 FT).

• …Brandon Jennings was unable to make an impact.  First, there was concern about Bogut, only to learn he was dealing with some kind of back injury.  Now, there seems to be reason to be concerned about Jennings.  Jennings probably isn’t injured, he’s probably just going through another dip, but that’s not all that concerns me.  It wasn’t so much that Jennings was taking and missing bad shots yesterday, it was that he wasn’t looking to be aggressive.  With Bogut out of the game, it seemed reasonable to expect Jennings to control the offense and look for his own shot early.  He finished the first half with one shot attempt.  Jennings is now 9-34 over his past four games.  Coach Skiles on whether or not Jennings was hesitant:

I feel like he’s been that way since the Sac (Sacramento) game.  We need him to be more aggressive.  However, they were jumping out hard and aggressive with their bigs, pretty much text book of how you want to jump out and aggressively trap people.  I also felt like he was looking to spread the ball when they were jumping out.  It’s a fine line.  When Brandon’s going to his right hand, he’s not nearly as comfortable, they jump out and he tends to pick it up and move it, it’s an area he’s still working on.

• …is one thing, but without Bogut or Ersan Ilyasova (flu), the Bucks front line was beyond depleted.  The newly signed Darnell Jackson was not yet with the team and the Bucks simply were outmatched inside.  Milwaukee was outrebounded on the defensive glass 37-19.  They made up some of that deficit on the offensive boards, winning that battle 17-9, but what good does it do when Brezec and Gadzuric grab offensive boards only to miss another shot?  Even the typically strong finishing Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was 2-10, with a number of misses inside.

• …the Bucks shot 31.5% and allowed the Heat to shoot 49.2%.

• …the Bucks didn’t block a shot.

• …Milwaukee had fewer assists (nine) than turnovers (10).

• …and Ilyasova was making it hard enough on the Bucks and then things turned for the worse.  Carlos Delfino went down on a drive in the second quarter and has his head/neck area inadvertently stepped on by Heat power forward Udonis Haslem on a rebound.  Haslem made an outlet pass and the Heat moved down the court, but Delfino didn’t move.  He continued to lie under the hoop until a stretcher was brought out to carry him off.  The Bucks reported that he did have movement in his extremities and he was being taken to the hospital for precautionary x-rays.  No further word was available on Delfino, but keep him in your thoughts.

• …the Bucks weren’t so good Friday night and it was clear in every which way.  The Bucks lack a competent back-up plan if Kurt Thomas is in foul trouble like he was Friday, making Bogut’s absence all the more notable.  Before the game, Coach Skiles said he’d hoped Bogut would be back Sunday, said this injury had nothing to do with his last back injury and wrote it off as “back spasms more or less.”  I’m skeptical but hopeful.  One thing is clear though …

Without Andrew Bogut, the Bucks can kiss any playoff optimism goodbye.

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 39-31

Vs.

Miami Heat (Erik Spoelstra) 38-34

Date: 3/26/2010

Time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin and NBA TV

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Carlos Arroyo

The shipping out of Rafer Alston initially seemed like a questionable move, given that he helped Orlando so tremendously last season after Jameer Nelson went down, but the more I look the more I like it.  Miami doesn’t have the talent around their point guards to make up for poor effort on defense or freelancing in the offense or just a general problem in the locker room.  At any given time, Alston can be those things.  Arroyo has some flair in his game, but isn’t all that good.  Why Chalmers still doesn’t start is beyond me, but he appears to be a little off-kilter himself.  Regardless, the point guard position in Miami ends up being Wade’s by game end anyway.  Jennings has struggled mightily in his last two; a rebound game would be nice.

Advantage: Bucks Read more…