The skies in Milwaukee lit up after the Bucks hit 40% against Denver.

It truly is a bizarre season for a team when 40% shooting is something of a cause for celebration.  Unfortunately, that’s where things are for the Bucks right now.  It’s been a task more difficult than anyone imagined, but as strong as they are defensively, Milwaukee should be in line to win a game in which they shoot 40%.

Except when Andrew Bogut is out.

Suddenly, we’re no longer talking about the 2010 Milwaukee Bucks.  Suddenly, we’re looking at something closer to the late 90s Milwaukee Bucks, the teams that took the floor under Chris Ford. Those teams weren’t much offensively and were even worse as defensive units.  And without Bogut, the Bucks are no longer one of the most dangerous defensive units in the league.  Lacking a backup center, Milwaukee struggles on the glass and is incapable of defending more talented big men in one on one situations.  Rotations have been missed by those in Bogut’s place and even on a night in which one player blocks eight shots for Milwaukee, they still were beat in points in the paint.  For this Bogut-less team, 40% shooting won’t cut it.

Defensive issues loomed large in Milwaukee’s 105-94 loss to the Denver Nuggets in Denver Wednesday night.  There is no room for error on the end of the court in which they are supposed to be specializing.  Not with this offense, the one that typically flirts with 40% shooting, only to see 40% shooting end up going home with some other guy at the end of the night.

So on the one night Milwaukee was able to finish at exactly 40%, it’s a shame they couldn’t handle things on that other end.

Offense

In the first half, the Bucks shot 6-13 on 3-pointers.  For a team that was shooting 32.6% on 3-pointers this season, that seemed an unsustainable number. They were bound to come back to Earth and they hit the ground harder than a comet in the second half.  Milwaukee managed to connect on just one of nine second half 3-point attempts, while the Nuggets countered that by hitting four of nine.  That was just the thumbnail of the bigger second half offensive picture.  Milwaukee connected on just 12 of 35 second half shot attempts, while the Nuggets sank 19 of 39 second half shots.  The tale of the Bucks is one typically told through shooting percentage and Wednesday was no different: Bucks 40%, Nuggets 45.3%.

• Ball movement.  It’s the word everyone uses when describing the Milwaukee Bucks. When Milwaukee is “moving the ball well” they are typically playing well on offense.  If the ball is stalling and open players aren’t catching in the rhythm they should be, Milwaukee’s offense stalls.  The second half was one of those stalling halves.  Milwaukee assisted on their first 11 field goals of the game and then 11 of their final 21 shots.  The assist percentage still wasn’t terrible in the second half, but Milwaukee did very little passing wise to get the ball to open players.  If Milwaukee isn’t assisting each other on field goals, they won’t make many shots.  That’s the difference between them and a team like the Nuggets.  Denver scored 29 fourth quarter points, but only had two assists.  With all of their individual talents, they can create more shots out of one on one situations that don’t come from assists.

• A loss in a game John Salmons plays well is like an ugly guy getting an attractive female’s number and then losing his phone.  You always want to get that number and figure it won’t come, but hey, here it is, except it ends up being useless.  Salmons made seven of 15 shots from the field and three of six 3-point attempts, leading to a team leading 21 points.  He even chipped in four rebounds, three assists and three steals while he was at it.  And still, Milwaukee failed to generate enough offense to win, though this probably says more about their rough defensive effort on the evening than it does about their offense.

Defense

April 7, 1998.  Since Ervin Johnson blocked eight shots that day, no Bucks player had blocked so many shots on one evening.  Until Wednesday night when Larry Sanders rejected eight Nuggets shots.  I was all ready to write about how Sanders had a much more impressive overall game than EJ did, because I just assumed it was one of those typical EJ games: lots of blocked shots, a few points and a handful of rebounds.  Somehow, EJ tossed up 24 points and 10 rebounds that night though.  Yikes.  Sanders didn’t manage numbers quite so spectacular, scoring 14 points (5-10 FG 4-5 FT) and grabbing 10 rebounds, but eight blocks is still an impressive number.

• Offensive rebounds were an issue in Utah, but Milwaukee had a firm grasp on that problem in the first half against the Nuggets.  Then the third quarter came.  Suddenly, rebounds long and short were ending up in the hands of the opposition.  As talented as they are at scoring the first time, they certainly can’t be afforded second chances at the hoop.  Denver grabbed four offensive rebounds in the third quarter, leading to seven second chance points.

• Not unlike Al Jefferson the night before him, Nene Hilario was able to take advantage of the absence of Bogut inside.  Nene (quick side note: did he bring back “Hilario”? I thought we were just doing Nene, but Basketball-Reference has the Hilario?  Interesting.  Not really I guess though.) made eight of nine shots and eight of 10 free throws en route to 24 points and nine rebounds Wednesday.  Both Ersan Ilyasova and Sanders struggled to stop him individually, further cementing just how irreplaceable Bogut is to the Bucks defense.  Sure, Sanders can block shots, but he doesn’t anchor a defense or defend opposing big men one on one anywhere close to as well as Bogut does.

Final Thoughts

It was difficult to envision a scenario in which Milwaukee would have won this game.  Perhaps if neither Carmelo Anthony or Chauncey Billups had suited up for the Nuggets, we’d have been looking at a more even talent dispersion between the two teams.  Even when Anthony was ejected from the game for a rather curious choice to argue about a blocked shot that was pretty clearly a block and not a goaltend, Denver had already seized control of the game, despite just a three-point lead.  The ball had begun to roll, J.R. Smith had been properly pre-cooked and was ready to heat up, Billups was on his way to a nice game and Nene would not be stopped.  Denver’s talent was too overwhelming.

So, onward the Bucks must move.  The schedule doesn’t get a any easier, with the Magic and Heat soon to be arriving in Milwaukee, but if Bogut returns on Saturday, as some have suggested, it’s possible, though not certain, that Milwaukee’s once great defense will return with him.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Denver Nuggets (George Karl) 10-6
Inactive: Kenyon Martin

Date: 12/01/2010
Time: 8:00 PM (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

Enemy: Roundball Mining Company

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Chauncey Billups

Before playing the actual best point guards in the league last season, Jennings said Billups was actually the best point guard in the league.  Then he put 30 on Billups and hasn’t said such nonsense since.  No, Billups isn’t the best point guard and actually, the 34-year-old Billups may no longer be better than Jennings.  Everyone assumes Jennings is the least reliable shot making point guard in the league (and by everyone, of course I mean me), but Billups is giving Jennings a run for his money.  Chauncey has hit just 36.6% of his shots this season and only 34.9% of his threes, both worse numbers than Jennings has produced.  And, despite playing in the up-tempo Nuggets offense (third in the league in pace), Billups is averaging just 4.9 assists per game against 2.7 turnovers.  Perhaps Billups is no longer the best fit for an offense that seems to thrive with a quick point guard like his backup Ty Lawson.  Oddly enough, he may be a better fit for a slower team like the Bucks while Jennings could thrive in a more open court game like the one the Nuggets play.  Oh well.

Advantage: Milwaukee

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Arron Afflalo

Salmons is second on the Bucks in minutes and has to be close to last in effectiveness this season.  Now that both Chris Douglas-Roberts and Corey Maggette are healthy, will Salmons still continue to see more than 30-minutes-per-game?  Defensively he’s far better than either CD-R or Maggette, so I wouldn’t be on a significant minute drop, but it certainly is something to keep an eye on.  Another one for 11 outing like he had in Utah won’t do his cause any favors.  Afflalo has been a very accurate shooter from deep and everywhere else this season, hitting 43.4% of his shots from three and 50.4% from the field overall.  He’s also a plus defender.  More or less, he’s everything I’d like for Luc Mbah a Moute to be some day.  But I dream … I dream.

Advantage: Denver (unless last season’s Salmons shows up)

Small Forward
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Carmelo Anthony

Anthony is fighting the flu, which is a much more difficult opponent than the Milwaukee Bucks at this point in the season.  ‘Melo told the Denver Post he would try and give it a go against the Bucks, but isn’t sure if he’ll be able to play.  I’m willing to bet he plays and scores around 20 points, but isn’t his typical effective self on the glass.  Mbah a Moute won’t make it easy for him offensively, but he will make it easy for him on offense.  If Anthony is truly ill, it would be nice to see Mbah a Moute crashing the glass especially hard on the offensive end to make him work.  That’s a real strength of Mbah a Moute and I’m sure he’ll be active.

Advantage: Denver

Power Forward
Larry Sanders vs. Shelden Williams

Here comes a battle you’ll never forget.  Actually, if Williams could get more minutes, his numbers might be fairly impressive.  That’s always been the problem with Williams though, he’s not good enough at anything to actually deserve more than 15 minutes-per-game.  He’s capitalizing on Kenyon Martin’s absence right now and producing a little bit, but he’ll soon enough be back at home on the end of the bench when Martin returns.  Sanders struggled horribly with boxing out against the Jazz and failed to make much of an impact at all.  I don’t expect the same problems against a significantly less talented matchup in this one.  Still, Williams is a more reliable for six points and six rebounds at this stage in his career than Sanders.  Less foul prone too.

Advantage: Nuggets

Center
Ersan Ilyasova vs. Nene Hilario

Hilario could be the Bucks biggest problem Wednesday night.  His offensive rating this season is a powerful 125 this season and he’s been a force around the rim, finishing on 74.5% of his attempts.  Surprisingly, Nene has attempted just eight shots per game this season.  For a player as efficient and dominant around the hoop as he is, he sure doesn’t get many looks.  If he’s able to use his size, strength and quickness advantages to wreak havoc on the offensive glass the way Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson did the other night, he could be in store for a lot of easy buckets at the rim or free throws as a result.  Ilyasova’s jumper has been on lately and Milwaukee will need his hot streak to continue.  Over the past three, he’s shooting 48.4%, which isn’t great for a power forward/center, but he balances that out by hitting 46.1% of his threes over that time span, averaging 16.3 points and 8.7 rebounds.  That is the shooting Milwaukee expects out of their stretch four.

Advantage: Nuggets

Bench
Keyon Dooling, Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Earl Boykins

vs.

Al Harrington, J.R. Smith, Ty Lawson and Chris Anderson

Take another look at the Nuggets bench.  Wow.  They have a boatload of offensive talent on their second unit and could do some big time damage against the Bucks backups, even if Maggette is ready to go.  Milwaukee would benefit a ton from a strong game from Dooling, who hasn’t had many of those this season.  Smith is ready to explode at any moment and Lawson uses his speed and quickness very well inside of the Nuggets high octane offense.

Advantage: Nuggets

Prediction: Nuggets 108 – Bucks 93

This may not be pretty.  Without Bogut, Milwaukee doesn’t have its defensive anchor to stop the high powered Nuggets offense.  Denver can beat a team from the outside or inside, and the rebounding problems Milwaukee had against Utah seem to indicate that they are ripe for exposure inside again.  The Bucks were able to stick with the Jazz for three quarters thanks largely to some hot shooting that they couldn’t sustain.  Milwaukee isn’t likely to shoot as well from downtown as they did for the first three quarters of the Jazz game, but it’s possible they could rebound better.  If they can do that and have a less offensive offensive output than they typically do, this may not be the blowout I’m envisioning.  But why should anyone suspect the Bucks shoot better than 40% at this point?

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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(Likely) Inactives: Johan Petro

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 3-2

(Likely) Inactives: Michael Redd, Joe Alexander and Francisco Elson

Game Time: 7:00

TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Chauncey Billups

Billups is the ideal result of any combo point guard in the league.  He bounced around, people weren’t sure if he was a scorer or a passer, but he figured things out about six years into his career.  The idea of Chauncey Billups is probably as intimidating as any match-up for point guards in the league.  Billups is the go-to-guy whenever someone is describing a veteran, muscley, big, winning point guard.  Upon arriving in Denver last year, Billups changed the culture and held players accountable as defenders and teammates.  At 33, Billups is still going strong thanks to a game that relies on strength and smarts rather than speed.  Jennings will learn a lot by watching the tape of this one when it’s done.

Advantage: Nuggets

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Aaron Afflalo

Bell and Afflalo essentially need to be the same player.  Both are expected to play good defense and hit open shots.  Neither really needs to create much and both have someone more capable of providing offense backing them up.  They are simply counted on to be more consistent (if less explosive) than the guys backing them up and keep the ball moving.  They both fill their roles fairly well and will likely see decreases in playing time as “Earl” (I’ll explain in the bench section) and Jodie Meeks get more acclimated to this season.

Advantage: Nuggets

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Carmelo Anthony

If the season were to end right now, it Anthony would be on the short list of names on the MVP ballot.  Anthony ranks third in the league in PER, second in scoring, second in field goals, free throws made and attempted.  On top of all of this, Anthony has cut his turnovers by nearly one per game.  His offensive rating is an all time  high ten points higher than his defensive (118-108).  Simply put, Anthony is a beast this year.  Carlos Delfino is not, but he did hit two threes in the first quarter against the Knicks, so he’s got that going for him.  I’d expect Delfino to see fewer minutes than Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in this one though, as long as LRMAM performs like last year’s LRMAM and not the struggling version that has shown up this year.  LRMAM may give the Bucks a better chance of slowing the powerhouse Anthony regardless of which version shows up.

Advantage: Nuggets (I emphasize ADVANTAGE here too)

Power Forward

Hakim Warrick vs. Kenyon Martin

Martin is a stronger more ideal version of Hakim Warrick.  Or at least he was.  Martin is not the athlete he once was and shoots an ever increasing amount of perimeter jumpers with varying degrees of success.  Martin has taken more shots from 16-23 feet this year than he’s taken at the rim.  The Martin of six or seven years ago was much better offensively, but Martin hasn’t lost much on defense.  Martin can still catch lobs and throw down in traffic, but not with the same regularity he once did after two serious knee surgeries.  Warrick’s dunks have been a terrific source of energy time and again for the Bucks and he’s been crashing the boards on offense with great regularity.

Advantage: Nuggets

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Nene

Nene lead the league last year in true shooting percentage (takes into account two’s, three’s and free throws) and, remarkably, is doing even better in this category this season.  The biggest difference in Bogut and Nene’s offense is that Nene gets to the line more and converts at a higher rate.  He’s taken 28 more free throws than Bogut and shoots at a rate that is nearly 20% better.  Nene is fourth in the league in free throw attempts per field goal attempts.  Nene is also a great athlete able to run the floor and stay with the up-tempo Nuggets.  Plus he beat cancer, which is extra cool.  This will be a very good test for Bogut after a few strong games in a row.

Advantage: Nuggets

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Jodie Meeks, LRMAM, Ersan Ilyasova and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

“Earl” Smith III, Ty Lawson, Anthony Carter, Chris Anderson

Who is “Earl” Smith III?  J.R. Smith has emerged from his season opening seven game suspension with a supposed new outlook and a request for a new name.  J.R. wants to be referred to as “Earl III” from now on (it’s his given name).  I will acquiesce to his request.  Call him what you may, he’s part of a very talented Nugget bench.  Smith can put up 40 on any given night, Ty Lawson is one of two rookie point guards with a higher PER than Brandon Jennings and Chris Anderson is one of the best rebounders and shot blockers that doesn’t start in the entire league.  The Bucks counter with their five deep rotation of defenders and role players.

Advantage: Nuggets

Prediction: Bucks 103 – Nuggets 107

This one may be a wake-up call for the Bucks after a couple of teams that looked like they would have problems scoring in an empty gym in Minnesota and New York.  The Nuggets are third in the league in offensive rating (though sure to drop after a poor performance in a win in Chicago Tuesday) and seventh in pace.  This year they’ve had games in which they’ve scored 133, 111 and 122.  They get up and down and score with efficiency.  It all starts with Anthony.  ‘Melo dropped 33 on the Bucks in their meeting last February and got to the free throw line 16 times.  That’s been a problem for the Bucks again this year and should be a focus for the Nuggets.  The Bucks showed they do have some scoring punch against the Knicks and they’ll need all of it against a not-so-great defensively Nuggets team to keep up.

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