The NBA revolves around, going in the post, pick and rolls, bringing people off of down screens and spot up shooting.  That basically is everybody’s offense, somewhere in there.  And we’re posting up, picking and rolling, we’re spot up shooting and we’re bringing shooters off screens.  We’ve got to make pro plays. – Scott Skiles before Saturday’s game.

Pro plays?  Not happening, not right now, not for this Bucks team. Despite being without both Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, the Oklahoma City Thunder rolled into the Bradley Center Saturday night and upended the Bucks 82-81.

Once again, Milwaukee’s game played out like an episode of Pinky and the Brain.  In this scenario, Milwaukee’s defense is The Brain.  In the same way that Brain is smart enough to come up with new and possibly successful plans to take over the world on a nightly basis, Milwaukee’s defense is good enough to limit opposing teams to totals well below their season averages.  The Thunder scored just 82 points and at no point looked like a winning NBA offense.  For most teams, a defense like that wins them a lot of games.

Only the Bucks offense once again went all Pinky and screwed things up, blowing the plan to take over the world or, in this case, win a basketball game.

Offense

As far as numbers go, the usual suspects were at it again for the Bucks.  Milwaukee shot 37.2% from the field and 16.7% (3-18) from three.  Brandon Jennings was the only Bucks player to hit a three on the evening and appeared at times to be the only one capable of making anything positive happen on offense.  And even with Jennings, he’s generally creating for himself more than he is for others.

It’s tough to determine where things are going wrong, but generally it doesn’t seem like a good idea that Jennings often spends 10 seconds dribbling around trying to make something happen on offense for Milwaukee.  I don’t fault him though, he seems to be the only one capable of creating confusion for defenses or get to the rim.  Other players on Milwaukee are getting into the paint, but getting to the rim has been an issue.  Milwaukee made just 21 of 39 shots in the paint.  When John Salmons or Luc Mbah a Moute or any other of the Bucks wings get into the paint, more often than not their falling away, twisting or doing something else to try and get their shot off in the paint.  Milwaukee’s wings seriously lack athleticism.  That difference between the Thunder and the Bucks was on full display in the fourth quarter when both Russell Westbrook and James Harden attempted rim-rocking dunks over Andrew Bogut. It doesn’t matter that neither of them made it and only one got a foul out of it, those are plays that no wing on the Bucks can even attempt.  That’s an issue right now.

• But Salmons has all sorts of issues right now.  On offense, the ball starts in his hands a whole lot and so far, it’s been very rare that that’s been a good thing.  I don’t even feel like I can say he struggled to nine points on three of nine shooting; he just went about business as usual for him this season.

• Even though he’s out of control sometimes, Gooden rebounded very well Saturday night.  He hits the offensive glass better than any Buck I’ve had the pleasure of watching and that resulted in seven offensive rebounds Saturday.  All told, Gooden grabbed 16 boards to match his 16 points on five of 13 shooting.  His jumper may not have been there Saturday night, but his effort was.

Defense

If the Bucks could have just gotten out to Harden a couple more times, this may have been a win.  Oklahoma City’s second-year shooting-guard was six of eight on 3-pointers, but failed to make a shot inside the arc.  Milwaukee does such a good job of helping off their men to cut off penetration, and occasionally that will leave shooters open.  Harden was open a lot Saturday night and he made the Bucks pay.

• What’s amazing is that, despite their offensive struggles, Milwaukee’s defense continues to play at such a high level.  Many teams would see their defense fall off a cliff if their offense struggled so much.  It isn’t unusual for a team to lose focus on this end when shots aren’t falling on the other.  Not these Bucks though.  They held the Thunder to 37% shooting for the game and just 31.4% shooting in the second half.  That’s what winning teams do.  Of course, winning teams also shoot above 40% often, which Milwaukee doesn’t do.

• This isn’t necessarily defense, but it was something.  As previously mentioned, Durant did not play, but he did sit on the bench in a dapper looking suit coat.  He wasn’t always sitting though, sometimes he was standing and cheering on his teammates.  Unsatisfied with his home team’s efforts on the evening, a fan sitting nearby me yelled to Durant that if he wasn’t in uniform he needed to sit down.  This is a very common insult hurled towards players every night, typically without response.  Durant took the bait though.  He appeared to mouth “shut up” to the fan and proceeded to get up and cheer on his teammates with vigor every time something positive happened for them, often looking over at his antagonist in the crowd before returning to his seat.  I hadn’t seen such personality out of Durant before Saturday night, but I must say, I rather enjoyed it.

From 415

(Bucksketball contributor Brian Matzat is a proud season ticket holder.  He’ll be chiming in on home recaps with some words he heard in the crowd throughout the evening.)

I usually am really quiet following Bucks losses. Dejected tonight on my way out of the Bradley Center, I turned my attention to the rest of the fans leaving the game. I heard some guy rambling about how great Brewer games were so I had to hear what he’d say about the Bucks. His depressing verbatim response:

“It’s too expensive, too cold, too inconvenient. Waste of my time.”

Final Thoughts

The season goes on.  As bad as the last couple games have been, we’re still only 13 games deep into an 82 game season.  The Bucks defense is good enough that as soon as they find any sort of rhythm offensively, the switch will flip and the Bucks will be a much better team than they are right now.  While it feels like they are miles away, they really aren’t.  Coach Skiles has been adamant that the team isn’t panicking and that the ship will be righted when everyone plays up to their talent level.

Every night, they’ll keep trying to take over the world.  Or at least play some good offensive basketball.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Become a fan on Facebook (to the right).

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vs.

Oklahoma City Thunder (Scott Brooks) 8-4
Inactive: Jeff Green (probably), Byron Mullens

Date: 11/20/2010
Game Time: 7:30 PM (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

The Other Guys: Daily Thunder

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Russell Westbrook

Westbrook did work on Rajon Rondo Friday night, so he’s probably not shaking at the thought of facing Jennings Saturday evening.  He’s absurdly athletic and will be a very difficult match-up for Jennings.  He has an incredible 26 PER on the season, despite still lacking much in regards to an outside shot.  He drives by defenders and finishes in the lane so well though, that it hardly matters that he can’t shoot reliably.  Jennings struggled against the Sixers after a few strong games.  At this point, it’s impossible to know coming into a game whether or not Jennings will be passive or aggressive, effective or ineffective, accurate with his shot or missing or anything else.  He’s all over the map.

Advantage: Thunder

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Thabo Sefolosha

Sefolosha is the defensive specialist on the Thunder, not unlike Mbah a Moute on the Bucks.  He doesn’t have much of a purpose on offense, also like Mbah a Moute.  He should give John Salmons fits though, as that hasn’t been difficult for defenders good or bad this season.  Every game there’s reason to hope this will be the game where Salmons is able to start a consistent streak of doing good work.  Let’s all cross our fingers.

Advantage: Bucks (but it’s a lot closer than it should be)

Small Forward
Luc Mbah a Moute vs. Kevin Durant

If Durant plays, this should be a fun matchup.  Mbah a Moute has only sporadically been guarding the best players on the opposition this season, so this will be his first extended test as Durant lines up with him at small forward.  Both players have arms that go on and on, but Durant uses his to launch gorgeous jump shots that always find the bottom of the net.  He’s nursing an ankle injury, but even so, he’s a guaranteed 20 points and tons of trouble.

Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward
Drew Gooden vs. Serge Ibaka

Jeff Green is doubtful for the Thunder, but Ibaka has stepped up in his absence.  Ibaka has an absurd 136 offensive rating this season and is doing that with a usage of just 14.9%.  He thrives off the ball, slamming home rebounds and finishing around the rim.  He’s everything you want Larry Sanders to be and then some.  Gooden was the lone bright spot in an otherwise dreary effort against the Sixers on Friday.  He was hitting every jump shot he took, something that sounds crazy but really isn’t.  It was just a matter of time before Gooden started hitting open shots.  There’s no reason to expect he should shoot less than 45% as he has been all season.  He’ll have to work hard to keep Ibaka off the glass Saturday night.

Advantage: Thunder

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Nenad Kristic

Kristic is one of the many role players plugged in around Durant and Westbrook.  He’s a big body, no more, no less.  Bogut hasn’t been much more than a big body on offense himself lately.  Defensively, Bogut is still awesome, absolutely shutting down Elton Brand Friday in Philadelphia.  The Thunder lack a big men of that caliber that Bogut will need to focus on, but he’ll have his hands full attempting to help on drives from Westbrook and Durant.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Corey Maggette, Keyon Dooling, Earl Boykins, Ersan Ilyasova, Larry Sanders and Jon Brockman

vs.

James Harden, Nick Collison, D.J. White, Eric Maynor and Royal Ivey

Oklahoma is a little thin at the moment, especially if Durant doesn’t play.  Harden started on Friday for the first time in his NBA career and struggled with his shot a bit, hitting just two of eight.  He’s their go-to-guy on the bench full of role players.  Even if he’s the only one scoring, they still have guys who all know their roles and fill them well.  Meanwhile, in Milwaukee, no one seems to know what they’re supposed to be doing, specifically if they are supposed to be scoring.  Maggette is getting buckets, but that may be coming at the expense of his teammates.  Eventually Ilyasova will probably start making some shots, and hopefully Dooling will too.  We’ll see how soon that happens though.

Advantage: Thunder

Prediction: Thunder 96 – Bucks 88

It’s hard to have much hope in this one after the way the Bucks played against the Sixers.  Milwaukee is bound to figure things out eventually, but against a very good Oklahoma City team?  That’s unlikely.  Then again, I seem to get predictions wrong a lot more than I get them right, so who knows.  I think that says as much about this Bucks team and their inconsistencies as it does about my basketball knowledge, but I’m a bit biased in that matter.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Become a fan of Bucksketball on Facebook (to the right).

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I’m not going to lie, as soon as the last shot of regulation left Kevin Durant’s hand at half-court, I was slightly worried.  Kobe did it and Dirk did it and if you add Kobe plus Dirk, who do you get?

So you can see where my anxiety stemmed from.

But The Durantula’s running 30-footer wasn’t close and the Bucks rode Michael Redd’s first hot night in what has seemed like years to the finish line in a 103-97 victory over Oklahoma City Saturday night.

But it wasn’t a smooth ride.

Redd hit one long two after the next in overtime, all very difficult shots, but it seemed the only offense Bucks were able to muster and that’s a problem.  If Milwaukee’s having to rely on Redd to hit difficult shots to keep them in a game or give them a lead, that means the offense isn’t mustering much with regard to open looks.  And those tough shots?  They aren’t going to keep falling every time according to the law of averages.

It’s a lot of fun to see guys hit long tough two point shots when they’re going in, but usually they aren’t.  Milwaukee was 3-3 on 16-23 foot shots in overtime and 11-22 on those shots Saturday night, but that’s abnormal.  On the season, the Bucks are shooting just 39 percent from that distance.  Going to Andrew Bogut on a post up with 38.5 seconds left was the first good shot the Bucks got in overtime, and if that’s the case and the Bucks win, it’s fine.  But when the Bucks lose close games and everyone is wondering why, look no further than the challenge they have in getting off good looks.  Skiles thoughts on the general lack of attacking the rim in overtime (aside from a Luke Ridnour lay-up):

The problem is though, we’re going in there and we feel like we’re going up strong and sometimes, maybe there is some contact maybe there isn’t, but we come up empty.  You know, so, you have to go in there and either score or get fouled otherwise you have poor back court coverage because you’re point guard is under the basket, sometimes laying on the ground, and people run out on you.  I want our guys to be in attack mode but I know they’re a little bit frustrated by the inability to get to the line.

Whether they made it more difficult for themselves than need be or not, what’s important is that the Bucks won this game.  It was nice to see the Bucks out execute (yes, the making of tough shots falls into that category, mainly because the Thunder were unable to get the ball in bounds with 20 seconds left) and out defend a team in the fourth quarter and overtime for once.

Offense

When you hear “The Milwaukee Bucks grabbed nine more offensive rebounds than Oklahoma City” it sounds pretty nice.  19-10 were the exact numbers.  But that minor victory is actually the result of a much larger problem the Bucks continue to face: the inability to finish at the rim.  Coming into Saturday’s game, the Bucks were shooting 54 percent at the rim, six percentage points lower than the NBA average and the lowest percentage in the league.  Saturday the Bucks were 19-39 at the rim (48 percent) while Oklahoma City was 19-28 (68 percent).  That’s a pretty big difference.  The Bucks missed a number of easy tip shots and open put backs, the biggest offenders being Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (0-2), Hakim Warrick (4-9) and Brandon Jennings (3-7).

So while the Bucks were racking up the opportunities thanks to their offensive rebounds and extra tips on shots, they weren’t really making them count.

• Redd finished with 27 points on 12-23 shooting, including 3-7 from behind the arc.  Most encouraging was that Redd was 5-7 at the rim, meaning he was attacking … at least before overtime.  But hey, if he’s hitting those 18-foot jumpers, I don’t really have a problem with them.  Aside from how difficult they are.  And that he fades away.  And that the rest of the team sometimes just stands and watches after he comes off a high screen off the ball.  And that these shots typically don’t go in so they shouldn’t even be in his repertoire.  But aside from that, I love them.  Redd deserves a boatload of credit for this win though, not only was his shooting better than it had been all year, he made a few defensive plays that were clutch, including a tipped pass with 2:18 left in overtime that gave the Bucks the ball with a one-point lead after a Jennings turnover.

• Bogut had another great game at home, something of a recurring theme with him.  23 points, 15 rebounds and two blocks for the Aussie.  He controlled the paint on both ends for the majority of his time in the game.  He even hit what looked to me like a 15-foot jumper, but was actually confirmed in the shot chart to have been a 13-footer.  That’s still an expansion of range and something that’s delightful to see.  Coach Scott Skiles said that Andrew has worked on stepping out, but isn’t confident in it yet.  If he ever can, it’ll be a huge boon to his ever diversifying offensive game.

Defense

LUC RICHARD MBAH A MOUTE.

If I were given two sentences to describe LRMAM’s game, it’d be this one I jotted down starting with two minutes and eight seconds left in regulation:

• 2:08 left, Mbah a Moute saves a possesion! 1:45, misses layup, UGH.

Luc is just an awe-inspiring player.  He worked so hard all night on Durant and gave him hell in the last minute of regulation, poking it away and diving on the loose ball, and then worked a perfect double-team with Hak’ Warrick to push him away on the last shot.  There would be no good Kobe look for Durant against LRMAM.  He’s just too good to even allow a player to get in that kind of position.  I’d say even more about LRMAM’s performance, but I’m working on something on him for later in the week.  Your patience (and return) is appreciated.

• The Bucks allowed only 24 points in the last quarter and overtime combined and forced the Thunder into six more turnovers than they committed themselves.  In a two or three possession game, those are the kinds of things that win.

• This often goes overlooked, I always forget about it, but Luke Ridnour can really foul on the fast break.  Most guards are afraid to get physical and knock a guy down or give him a good hack to make sure he doesn’t get an and-one, but not Ridnour.  He’ll mess someone up if they’re trying to draw the foul plus the basket, just ask Durant.  He found out the hard way in the first half.

Final Thoughts

It looks as though the new year brought a renewed commitment at the defensive end for Milwaukee.  After the first half in which Durant was hitting lots of shots, nothing came easy for the Thunder.  Mbah a Moute set the tone for the perimeter and Andrew Bogut was active inside.  In other words, it was the Bucks of the first ten games, not the ones of the last 20.  Whether this was a temporary reprieve from a team relieved to be back at home against a team that wasn’t a superpower remains to be seen, but at least for tonight we can all bask in the reminder of what these Bucks are still possibly capable of.

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 8-5

(Likely) Inactives: Andrew Bogut, Joe Alexander and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

at

Oklahoma City Thunder (Scott Brooks) 8-7

(Likely) Inactives: Shaun Livingston, Kyle Weaver and Kevin Ollie

Game time: 8:30 (CST)

TV: ESPN (No big deal)

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Russell Westbrook

Two of the bright young point guards in the game today square off in this one.  Westbrook had a strong rookie season last year and has picked up where he left off this year.  He’s improved his field goal percentage, three-point percentage and assists.  His most significant weakness is his penchant for turning the ball over.  It probably has a lot to do with his incredible athleticism.  He was in the dunk contest last year and has had to make the transition to point guard from off-guard in college with relative ease.  When someone is as athletic as Westbrook they can find a way to have success wherever they are on the court if they put in the work.  He should be a real handful on both ends for Jennings, who’s had his share of struggles in his last two games.  As Jennings goes, so go the Bucks, so if Westbrook is able to corral him, expect another long night for the Bucks.

Advantage: Thunder

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Thabo Sefolosha

Sefolosha is a spell-check problem and gritty defender.  He’s one of a growing crop of hard defending, annoying European players.  The mold that says Euro’s are soft, three-point shooting only has been broken thanks to guys like Sefolosha.  I’d actually expect him to get some time on Jennings and then see a lot of Michael Redd when he comes in too.  Bell’s role has been reduced a tad since Redd has returned and with the strong play of Luke Ridnour, but the Bucks still need him to hit shots when he’s given the opportunity.

Advantage: Thunder

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Kevin Durant

Sigh.  What to do about Durant?  No LRMAM means he could give the Bucks fits all evening.  Delfino is the best answer for the silky smooth scorer Durant, but he’s going to give anyone the Bucks throw at him trouble.  When the Bucks played the Nuggets they more or less let Carmelo Anthony get shots, they just tried to give him trouble and frustrate him as much as they could.  They’ll likely try to bother Durant as much as possible, but I’d expect him to make a lot of trips to the line and tally up a lot of points.  He doesn’t seem to get as frustrated as ‘Melo is prone to do, so he may have an even bigger day than Anthony did.  Durant has scored 25 or more points in 10 of the 12 games — including five games of more than 30 points — largely the result of his new found ability to attack the rim.  And if the Bucks choose to play Redd at the three with Ridnour and Jennings or Bell and Jennings, the defense really takes a hit.  It could be a field day for Durant then.

Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Jeff Green

Green is a three/four, though not with the same range Ilyasova has.  He has better ball skills, is a better passer and as good a defender, but lacks bulk.  His well rounded game shows up in his averages:  only nine NBA players averaged at least 16 points, six rebounds, two assists and one steal last season, Green was one of them.   The Bucks rely on Ilyasova mainly as a perimeter threat rather than a post up player, so they may not be able to take full advantage of Green’s smaller stature.  Not that Ilyasova won’t go to the rim, he’s been pump-faking and driving quite a bit this year.  Either way, Ilyasova should be able to get back to rebounding against a smaller Green.  He had trouble trying to get in the paint for boards against New Orleans and San Antonio’s much larger front courts.  The Bucks need Ilyasova to grab double digit rebounds if they want to compete in this one.  They simply can’t give away boards and free throws and expect to win many games.

Advantage: Thunder

Center

Dan Gadzuric vs. Nenad Kristic

Kristic is a crafty scorer and can hit the jumper out to 15 feet.  That means he can pull Gadzuric away from the basket and drive on him, which could result in some quick fouls on Gadz.  Gadz has been struggling as a starter, his minutes haven’t been very consistent all year and he seems to be losing ground to Kurt Thomas with every passing game.  Gadz has started the past three games for the injured Andrew Bogut, but even in those three starts, he’s averaged less than 15 minutes a game.  Neither team has a center that will impact the game a great deal, but at the very least, Kristic can get 15-10 on a very good night.  He’s a warmer body than is Dan Gadzuric.

Advantage: Thunder

Bench

Ridnour, Redd, Thomas and Hakim Warrick

vs.

Nick Collison, James Harden, Etan Thomas and Serge Ibaka

This is the Bucks biggest (and practically only) edge.  The Thunder don’t go very deep and haven’t gotten much scoring out of James Harden, 3rd overall pick in the draft, but he’s been playing smart and within himself.  Thomas is often a thorn in the Bucks side and can block a lot of shots and score a little bit.  An advanced Gadzuric.  Collison may not play due to a hamstring injury and Ibaka is a very very raw center in the shot blocking, athletic mold.  They don’t get a lot of scoring, so if the Bucks starters struggle early, it could be up to the bench to bring them back in this one.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Thunder 105 – Bucks 97

It’s not easy to win on the road, but I think Bucks fans at least want to see a crisply played game from the Bucks after a few rough games in a row.  The integration of Redd back into the lineup has not gone well, so if he can get it going tonight that would put a lot of minds at ease.  If he’s able to get going, this score could end up a lot different, but there has barely been glimpses of positive contributions from Redd at this point.

This isn’t a must win for the Bucks, but it’d be nice to play well against a good team.  The doubters are beginning to return in full force and they do have some reason:

The Bucks have played only three games against .500+ teams this season, fewest in the NBA. (Via ESPN Stats and Information)

Easiest Schedules Played

2009-2010 Season

Opp. Win Pct.

Bucks         .374

Blazers       .403

Cavaliers     .416

Celtics       .436

Magic         .438

Nuggets       .438

If the Bucks can sneak out a win against a team over .500, on the road, on national TV and even this road trip up at 2-2, it will be a huge leap in the right direction.  But it may be a bit much to hope for at this stage in the Bucks development.

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