I’m not going to lie, as soon as the last shot of regulation left Kevin Durant’s hand at half-court, I was slightly worried.  Kobe did it and Dirk did it and if you add Kobe plus Dirk, who do you get?

So you can see where my anxiety stemmed from.

But The Durantula’s running 30-footer wasn’t close and the Bucks rode Michael Redd’s first hot night in what has seemed like years to the finish line in a 103-97 victory over Oklahoma City Saturday night.

But it wasn’t a smooth ride.

Redd hit one long two after the next in overtime, all very difficult shots, but it seemed the only offense Bucks were able to muster and that’s a problem.  If Milwaukee’s having to rely on Redd to hit difficult shots to keep them in a game or give them a lead, that means the offense isn’t mustering much with regard to open looks.  And those tough shots?  They aren’t going to keep falling every time according to the law of averages.

It’s a lot of fun to see guys hit long tough two point shots when they’re going in, but usually they aren’t.  Milwaukee was 3-3 on 16-23 foot shots in overtime and 11-22 on those shots Saturday night, but that’s abnormal.  On the season, the Bucks are shooting just 39 percent from that distance.  Going to Andrew Bogut on a post up with 38.5 seconds left was the first good shot the Bucks got in overtime, and if that’s the case and the Bucks win, it’s fine.  But when the Bucks lose close games and everyone is wondering why, look no further than the challenge they have in getting off good looks.  Skiles thoughts on the general lack of attacking the rim in overtime (aside from a Luke Ridnour lay-up):

The problem is though, we’re going in there and we feel like we’re going up strong and sometimes, maybe there is some contact maybe there isn’t, but we come up empty.  You know, so, you have to go in there and either score or get fouled otherwise you have poor back court coverage because you’re point guard is under the basket, sometimes laying on the ground, and people run out on you.  I want our guys to be in attack mode but I know they’re a little bit frustrated by the inability to get to the line.

Whether they made it more difficult for themselves than need be or not, what’s important is that the Bucks won this game.  It was nice to see the Bucks out execute (yes, the making of tough shots falls into that category, mainly because the Thunder were unable to get the ball in bounds with 20 seconds left) and out defend a team in the fourth quarter and overtime for once.

Offense

When you hear “The Milwaukee Bucks grabbed nine more offensive rebounds than Oklahoma City” it sounds pretty nice.  19-10 were the exact numbers.  But that minor victory is actually the result of a much larger problem the Bucks continue to face: the inability to finish at the rim.  Coming into Saturday’s game, the Bucks were shooting 54 percent at the rim, six percentage points lower than the NBA average and the lowest percentage in the league.  Saturday the Bucks were 19-39 at the rim (48 percent) while Oklahoma City was 19-28 (68 percent).  That’s a pretty big difference.  The Bucks missed a number of easy tip shots and open put backs, the biggest offenders being Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (0-2), Hakim Warrick (4-9) and Brandon Jennings (3-7).

So while the Bucks were racking up the opportunities thanks to their offensive rebounds and extra tips on shots, they weren’t really making them count.

• Redd finished with 27 points on 12-23 shooting, including 3-7 from behind the arc.  Most encouraging was that Redd was 5-7 at the rim, meaning he was attacking … at least before overtime.  But hey, if he’s hitting those 18-foot jumpers, I don’t really have a problem with them.  Aside from how difficult they are.  And that he fades away.  And that the rest of the team sometimes just stands and watches after he comes off a high screen off the ball.  And that these shots typically don’t go in so they shouldn’t even be in his repertoire.  But aside from that, I love them.  Redd deserves a boatload of credit for this win though, not only was his shooting better than it had been all year, he made a few defensive plays that were clutch, including a tipped pass with 2:18 left in overtime that gave the Bucks the ball with a one-point lead after a Jennings turnover.

• Bogut had another great game at home, something of a recurring theme with him.  23 points, 15 rebounds and two blocks for the Aussie.  He controlled the paint on both ends for the majority of his time in the game.  He even hit what looked to me like a 15-foot jumper, but was actually confirmed in the shot chart to have been a 13-footer.  That’s still an expansion of range and something that’s delightful to see.  Coach Scott Skiles said that Andrew has worked on stepping out, but isn’t confident in it yet.  If he ever can, it’ll be a huge boon to his ever diversifying offensive game.

Defense

LUC RICHARD MBAH A MOUTE.

If I were given two sentences to describe LRMAM’s game, it’d be this one I jotted down starting with two minutes and eight seconds left in regulation:

• 2:08 left, Mbah a Moute saves a possesion! 1:45, misses layup, UGH.

Luc is just an awe-inspiring player.  He worked so hard all night on Durant and gave him hell in the last minute of regulation, poking it away and diving on the loose ball, and then worked a perfect double-team with Hak’ Warrick to push him away on the last shot.  There would be no good Kobe look for Durant against LRMAM.  He’s just too good to even allow a player to get in that kind of position.  I’d say even more about LRMAM’s performance, but I’m working on something on him for later in the week.  Your patience (and return) is appreciated.

• The Bucks allowed only 24 points in the last quarter and overtime combined and forced the Thunder into six more turnovers than they committed themselves.  In a two or three possession game, those are the kinds of things that win.

• This often goes overlooked, I always forget about it, but Luke Ridnour can really foul on the fast break.  Most guards are afraid to get physical and knock a guy down or give him a good hack to make sure he doesn’t get an and-one, but not Ridnour.  He’ll mess someone up if they’re trying to draw the foul plus the basket, just ask Durant.  He found out the hard way in the first half.

Final Thoughts

It looks as though the new year brought a renewed commitment at the defensive end for Milwaukee.  After the first half in which Durant was hitting lots of shots, nothing came easy for the Thunder.  Mbah a Moute set the tone for the perimeter and Andrew Bogut was active inside.  In other words, it was the Bucks of the first ten games, not the ones of the last 20.  Whether this was a temporary reprieve from a team relieved to be back at home against a team that wasn’t a superpower remains to be seen, but at least for tonight we can all bask in the reminder of what these Bucks are still possibly capable of.

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 8-5

(Likely) Inactives: Andrew Bogut, Joe Alexander and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

at

Oklahoma City Thunder (Scott Brooks) 8-7

(Likely) Inactives: Shaun Livingston, Kyle Weaver and Kevin Ollie

Game time: 8:30 (CST)

TV: ESPN (No big deal)

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Russell Westbrook

Two of the bright young point guards in the game today square off in this one.  Westbrook had a strong rookie season last year and has picked up where he left off this year.  He’s improved his field goal percentage, three-point percentage and assists.  His most significant weakness is his penchant for turning the ball over.  It probably has a lot to do with his incredible athleticism.  He was in the dunk contest last year and has had to make the transition to point guard from off-guard in college with relative ease.  When someone is as athletic as Westbrook they can find a way to have success wherever they are on the court if they put in the work.  He should be a real handful on both ends for Jennings, who’s had his share of struggles in his last two games.  As Jennings goes, so go the Bucks, so if Westbrook is able to corral him, expect another long night for the Bucks.

Advantage: Thunder

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Thabo Sefolosha

Sefolosha is a spell-check problem and gritty defender.  He’s one of a growing crop of hard defending, annoying European players.  The mold that says Euro’s are soft, three-point shooting only has been broken thanks to guys like Sefolosha.  I’d actually expect him to get some time on Jennings and then see a lot of Michael Redd when he comes in too.  Bell’s role has been reduced a tad since Redd has returned and with the strong play of Luke Ridnour, but the Bucks still need him to hit shots when he’s given the opportunity.

Advantage: Thunder

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Kevin Durant

Sigh.  What to do about Durant?  No LRMAM means he could give the Bucks fits all evening.  Delfino is the best answer for the silky smooth scorer Durant, but he’s going to give anyone the Bucks throw at him trouble.  When the Bucks played the Nuggets they more or less let Carmelo Anthony get shots, they just tried to give him trouble and frustrate him as much as they could.  They’ll likely try to bother Durant as much as possible, but I’d expect him to make a lot of trips to the line and tally up a lot of points.  He doesn’t seem to get as frustrated as ‘Melo is prone to do, so he may have an even bigger day than Anthony did.  Durant has scored 25 or more points in 10 of the 12 games — including five games of more than 30 points — largely the result of his new found ability to attack the rim.  And if the Bucks choose to play Redd at the three with Ridnour and Jennings or Bell and Jennings, the defense really takes a hit.  It could be a field day for Durant then.

Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Jeff Green

Green is a three/four, though not with the same range Ilyasova has.  He has better ball skills, is a better passer and as good a defender, but lacks bulk.  His well rounded game shows up in his averages:  only nine NBA players averaged at least 16 points, six rebounds, two assists and one steal last season, Green was one of them.   The Bucks rely on Ilyasova mainly as a perimeter threat rather than a post up player, so they may not be able to take full advantage of Green’s smaller stature.  Not that Ilyasova won’t go to the rim, he’s been pump-faking and driving quite a bit this year.  Either way, Ilyasova should be able to get back to rebounding against a smaller Green.  He had trouble trying to get in the paint for boards against New Orleans and San Antonio’s much larger front courts.  The Bucks need Ilyasova to grab double digit rebounds if they want to compete in this one.  They simply can’t give away boards and free throws and expect to win many games.

Advantage: Thunder

Center

Dan Gadzuric vs. Nenad Kristic

Kristic is a crafty scorer and can hit the jumper out to 15 feet.  That means he can pull Gadzuric away from the basket and drive on him, which could result in some quick fouls on Gadz.  Gadz has been struggling as a starter, his minutes haven’t been very consistent all year and he seems to be losing ground to Kurt Thomas with every passing game.  Gadz has started the past three games for the injured Andrew Bogut, but even in those three starts, he’s averaged less than 15 minutes a game.  Neither team has a center that will impact the game a great deal, but at the very least, Kristic can get 15-10 on a very good night.  He’s a warmer body than is Dan Gadzuric.

Advantage: Thunder

Bench

Ridnour, Redd, Thomas and Hakim Warrick

vs.

Nick Collison, James Harden, Etan Thomas and Serge Ibaka

This is the Bucks biggest (and practically only) edge.  The Thunder don’t go very deep and haven’t gotten much scoring out of James Harden, 3rd overall pick in the draft, but he’s been playing smart and within himself.  Thomas is often a thorn in the Bucks side and can block a lot of shots and score a little bit.  An advanced Gadzuric.  Collison may not play due to a hamstring injury and Ibaka is a very very raw center in the shot blocking, athletic mold.  They don’t get a lot of scoring, so if the Bucks starters struggle early, it could be up to the bench to bring them back in this one.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Thunder 105 – Bucks 97

It’s not easy to win on the road, but I think Bucks fans at least want to see a crisply played game from the Bucks after a few rough games in a row.  The integration of Redd back into the lineup has not gone well, so if he can get it going tonight that would put a lot of minds at ease.  If he’s able to get going, this score could end up a lot different, but there has barely been glimpses of positive contributions from Redd at this point.

This isn’t a must win for the Bucks, but it’d be nice to play well against a good team.  The doubters are beginning to return in full force and they do have some reason:

The Bucks have played only three games against .500+ teams this season, fewest in the NBA. (Via ESPN Stats and Information)

Easiest Schedules Played

2009-2010 Season

Opp. Win Pct.

Bucks         .374

Blazers       .403

Cavaliers     .416

Celtics       .436

Magic         .438

Nuggets       .438

If the Bucks can sneak out a win against a team over .500, on the road, on national TV and even this road trip up at 2-2, it will be a huge leap in the right direction.  But it may be a bit much to hope for at this stage in the Bucks development.

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