(Probable) Inactives: Dan Gadzuric or Joe Alexander

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Portland Trail Blazers (Nate McMillan) 23 -16

Inactives: Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and Nicolas Batum

Date: 1/13/2010

Time: 9:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Andre Miller

That never ending run of injuries finally landed Miller in the starting lineup after a turbulent beginning with the Blazers and results seem to have been generally positive.  It’s hard to say it hasn’t been when a team has suffered as many injuries as Portland and is still six games above .500.  Starting for Portland hasn’t been much different than starting for Philly for Miller though, as he still cannot hit a three for the life of him: 21 percent on the year.  Miller’s three-point shooting is one of those phenomenons I’ll never understand.  How could an NBA point guard be so brutal?  Miller is generally pretty efficient though, running the show, getting to the line and playing good defense are all his things.  Look for him to attempt to take Jennings in the post here and there, as he likes to post up little guys like Jennings and then shoot the mid-range jumper.

Advantage: Portland

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Brandon Roy

Roy hasn’t been wrecking the league on a nightly basis like he did last year, but he’s still been pretty good, evidenced by his first game against the Bucks this year.  He struggled with his shot all night, but when the game was on the line, Roy hit an incredible fall away shot that landed Portland in overtime.  He’ll be a load for Charlie Bell and I’d expect Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to see plenty of time on him.  Roy’s shot 50 percent or better in each of his last three games and made a combined 27 trips to the line in those contests, so Milwaukee may not be catching him at the most opportune moment.  Bell just needs to keep hitting three’s to balance this out a little bit even.

Advantage: Blazers

Small Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Martell Webster

Webster, owner of one of the most pure three-point shots in the league, doesn’t spend a lot of time attacking the hoop.  More than half of his total shots have been from three-point range, so it will be important for the Bucks to keep running him off the arc and making him put it down before he can shoot it.  The Bucks are right on the edge of what you may call the “middle of the pack” in terms of defending the three; they’ve allowed teams to shoot 34.3 percent, good for 11th in the league.  I’d expect Portland to shoot their share of free throws in this game and if that’s happening and Webster is getting loose for open three’s, it’ll be all bad for Milwaukee.

Advantage: Blazers

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge did all sorts of nasty things to the Bucks when he dropped 31 and 11 on them earlier this year.  He’s a tough match-up for Milwaukee as he could get Bogut in foul trouble and he’s a little too big for Ersan to hang with.  With Przybilla out and Juwan Howard playing next to him, in theory he’s less of a threat and easier to focus on, but things don’t always work out like that.  Especially not since Howard’s shown a pulse and then some in his extra playing time.

Advantage: Blazers

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Juwan Howard

If Bogut’s struggles against Phoenix can be attributed to the pace of that contest then this should be a prime opportunity to make up for it.  The Blazers rank 30th in the league in pace and feature Juwan Howard, Aldridge, Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham up front.  This game screams 30 points for Bogut.  Milwaukee will need to go to him early and often to take advantage of the constant size disparity between Bogut and whichever power forward masquerading as a center is guarding him.  If he doesn’t finish this game with 20 shots I’ll be seriously disappointed.  The Blazers will have to double team Bogut all night, so open shots could be the pleasant result of those extra men flying at Bogut.  The shooters will need to be ready and Bogut will have to be aggressive.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas and Jodie Meeks

vs.

Jeff Pendergraph, Steve Blake, Dante Cunningham, Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless

Bayless can get buckets in bunches, that is, when his playing time is there.  For whatever reason he languishes in some kind of nether, struggling to get consistent minutes, despite often producing when he receives them.  Chalk it up to him being young I guess.  Blake had a recent bout with pneumonia, but will play in this game and Rudy Fernandez appears to be looking like a go.  Word is he’ll be limited to 5-7 minutes a half though, fortunately.  Warrick and Ridnour have been destroying the competition lately, with Warrick doing all the things Milwaukee expected him to do for a long time.  Mainly, dunking and running around.  I’d love to see some more Jennings/Warrick moments this evening.

Advantage: Milwaukee

Prediction: Blazers 93 – Bucks 86

Blazers too good at home, Bucks too bad on the road.  That’s how I’ll classify this game.  I do expect Milwaukee to battle hard and take some momentum with them into Golden State though, where a win in entirely possible.  If the Bucks second unit plays to their absolute maximum potential this evening though, this could turn in the Bucks favor real quick.  The problem is, I wouldn’t expect to see too much of the Portland bench.  Portland’s starters have been playing around 40 minutes a night lately, largely nullifying the Bucks second most significant advantage.

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Let’s go through our checklist for what makes a classic regular season game (and I mean for the teams, not in terms of the entire league):

• Two overtimes

A lot of NBA games go into overtime.  Teams usually end up going into overtime somewhere between five and ten times a season (the Bucks did it four times last year).  Going into overtime in itself is nothing special.  Two overtimes?  Now I’m listening.  Regardless of whether the game is intra-divison, out of conference or whatever, it’s going to hold some appeal.  The last time the Bucks went into double overtime was December 17th of 2007.  So this is not an everyday situation.  Check.

• Memorable plays

Andrew Bogut’s tip (actually, his NOT tip).  Brandon Roy’s fall away jumper to tie it with 12 seconds to go in regulation.  Brandon Jennings’ pull-up jumper to tie it with four seconds left in the first overtime.  Jennings Nashian lay-up with 43 seconds to go in the second OT.  Yeah, we had a number of memorable plays in this one and I haven’t even mentioned Jennings’ floater near the end of regulation or a number of big dunks late from LaMarcus Aldridge.  Check.

• Memorable Moments

Beyond the shots that we’ll remember for the rest of the season, we were treated to a few tense instant replay ref calls.  Was Bogut’s tip shot at the end of regulation good?  It wasn’t, but it was fun waiting for the refs to tell us whether or not he touched it before the buzzer went off.  Did Luc Richard Mbah a Moute tip the ball out of bounds in the first overtime with the Bucks down two, or did Aldridge hit it last?  The tape wasn’t super clear, but it did appear Aldridge’s fingers were the last thing the ball touched in play.  Squad Six had the building rocking by starting a “this way” chant while pointing in the Bucks direction.  Soon everyone else joined in on the fun and the arena filled with electricity.  Check.

• Significance

Was there any better way for Jennings to get his very first NBA double-double than in a double overtime win at home?  I say no.  Jennings has always fed off the energy of the Bucks crowd and today was no different.  Especially when he got it going in the third quarter to the tune of 12 points after not even attempting a shot in the first half.  Jennings would finish with 18 points and 11 assists.  Check.

While regular season games only hold so much significance in the long run (I’d never compare this game to any of the great playoff games of recent years) this one was still fun to watch.  If you missed it, you likely won’t be able to catch a better Bucks game this year, which is actually pretty wild, since I didn’t find the first half to be all that special.  I mean, it wasn’t bad, Bogut had it going and the Bucks were playing better defense than they had in some time, but I never suspected I’d be thinking of this one as a classic when it was all said and done.  That’s the beauty of sports I guess.

Offense

• Bogut was a beast.  He again showed a nice array of post moves and did it against a very legitimate defender in Joel Przybilla. 27 points and nine boards on 12-19 shooting.  Another nice night for Bogut, who’s followed three bad efforts with three fairly strong ones (the Raptors game was so out of hand he didn’t really need to assert himself).  Even better was the big night coming against the length and strength of the Blazers big center Przybilla.  Bogut had been struggling against some of the better defenders at the center position and had something to say on the matter after the game:

I’ve heard people say that, but that doesn’t really bother me.  I’ve had bad games against guys that are long and I’ve had bad games …  you know, I had a bad game against Ben Wallace and he’s 6′9.  So I don’t really buy into that.  Bad game, good games tonight it was just good to get the win man, I mean, like I said we showed a lot of character tonight.  Last year’s team probably would have, uh, bit the dust when (the Blazers lead) was six points.

• Luke Ridnour appears to have discovered some kind of basketball secret.  That’s the only way to logically explain some of the moves he’s been making and shots he’s been hitting this year.  In 22 minutes, Ridnour scored 20 points and had a lot to do with the Bucks coming back from down six in the first overtime.  Ridnour checked in for Michael Redd at 2:38 and proceeded to hit a runner 11 seconds later.  Luke scored six more in the second overtime including a ridiculous 19-foot jumper with the scored tied at 97 that he had no business sinking.  But he did it anyway, because that’s the 2009-10 Luke Ridnour apparently.

• So, Michael Redd is back.  Redd doing a few Redd things here and there, meaning he’s occasionally holding the ball a little longer than he should or taking a shot a liiiitle too quick off of a screen, making it tougher than it needs to be.  A good example came early in his first entry when he made  a tough leaner.  Yes, the shot went in and he could have been awarded a free throw too, but is that really the shot the Bucks want?  Maybe two or three years ago that was a good option, but now the Bucks have the ability to get a little better shot, especially when Bogut is on.  It’s an interesting debate at this point.  Boos rained down Redd missed two free throws,  a sign that patience has worn thin, and a quick turn from the applause that greeted his return to the court when he checked in in the first quarter.  There was one nice sequence where Bogut kicked out to Jennings who swung it to Redd for three, pretty much exactly what the Bucks had hoped for when Redd came back.  Redd finished with 11 poitns on 5-11 shooting, but a team worst -11 plus/minus.  Coach Scott Skiles take before the game on Redd’s return:

We’re 10-11 and trying to get to .500.  If we were 15-5 and looked like a cohesive unit every game I might say it’s a little bit of a concern, but Michael’s a good player and we’re happy to have another good player back.  To me it’s simple.  We need Michael to defend his spot, which we expect from everybody but have struggled to do recently, and make shots.  We have a lot of open shots right now in every game, we have good ball movement, the ball is moving around the perimeter and you know, we need a guy like Michael to make open shots.

Defense

• Aldridge gave the Bucks problems all night long.  31 points on 13-22 shooting.  He worked Ersan Ilyasova and LRMAM repeatedly, caught alley-oops and was able to get out ahead of the pack for dunks using his terrific speed.  The Bucks, trying to keep Bogut in the game, opted not to throw the Aussie at Aldridge after he picked up a couple fouls early.  Aldridge was way too much for the typically solid defender Ilyasova and was too big for LRMAM.

• Portland continued their domination on the glass, winning the rebounding battle 52-44 over Milwaukee.  The Bucks are now 4-10 when being out-rebounded.  Aldridge and Przybilla led the way with 11 and ten respectively.

• I’m not so certain this is great defense or if it’s just bad play calling, but some how or another the Blazers ended up going with Andre Miller for a three with 32 seconds left down five.  The same Andre Miller I refuse to cover in NBA 2K10 because he’s such a bad outside shooter.  The same Andre Miller who once shot just under nine percent on three’s for a season.

Final Thoughts

For the Bucks to come back and win this one after being down six in overtime says a lot about their fight.  It seemed awfully glum at that point, but coach Skiles made the correct subs and saw Ridnour and Carlos Delfino connect on numerous important shots down the stretch.  He also saw Delfino rip the ball from Roy’s hands on a drive to the hoop in the second overtime after he took over defensive duties on the Blazer’s best player.  Sometimes a coach is just able to push the right buttons and have it all work out.  That was the situation in OT for the Bucks.

Now, with three days off before the Lakers come to town the Bucks have a great opportunity to get Mike Redd more at ease with his new role in the offense and the rest of the players more at ease with Redd through a couple practices.  As odd as it sounds, these three days off may be as important to the Bucks as any games they’ve played recently.  If the Bucks can get Redd comfortable and keep Jennings and Bogut fed, they might have an offense capable of picking up it’s end of the bargain with a little more consistency on nights the defense does it’s job.  But that’s for Monday and Tuesday.  For Sunday?  The Bucks have earned a chance to rest in as dramatic fashion as they have all year.

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(Likely) Inactives: Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Patrick Mills

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 10-11

(Likely) Inactives: Joe Alexander, Francisco Elson and Dan Gadzuric?

Date: 12/12/2009

Time: 7:00 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Steve Blake

Blake has retained the starting spot despite the off-season acquisition of Andre Miller.  Blake is a better shooter and can work off the ball a little better, which allows Brandon Roy to do a lot more ball handling, something he enjoys.  Blake’s primary requirement is to stand off the ball and get ready to shoot open three’s.  He’s having a slightly down year at 37 percent, but can knock them down with pretty good regularity on the right night.  Jennings had a strong game against Toronto and has performed very well at home this year.  The Blazers will likely look to contain him and are a pretty good defensive squad.  They held the high scoring Aaron Brooks to six points on nine attempts the game following center Greg Oden’s injury, so they’ve had at least some success against high scoring point guards this year.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Carlos Delfino vs. Brandon Roy

Roy isn’t a shooting guard.  He’s an everything guard.  He’s the prototype for successful combo guards.  He uses his handle and muscle to lead the Blazers in assists and rank fourth in rebounding on the team.  He scores 21 a night and shoots nearly one free throw for every two shots.  Translation: he likes to get in the paint and do work.  He hasn’t been quite as spectacular this year as he was last and part of the reason is, while he still does work inside, he hasn’t been getting to the rim as much.  He’s averaging two fewer attempts at the rim a night than he did last year.  If Roy only takes four shots at the rim Saturday night, the Bucks will be in great shape, but that may just be wishful thinking.  I’d look for him to attack the Bucks off the dribble and capitalize on Milwaukee’s tendency to foul everyone and everything.

Advantage: Blazers

Small Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Martell Webster

Webster and LRMAM may be total opposites.  Webster makes his living shooting three’s and from what I understand, is an inconsistent defender.  LRMAM makes his living on defense and from what I know, is an inconsistent shooter.  Regardless, don’t expect to see these two matched up very often when Portland has the ball.  It’s going to be LRMAM who gets the call when Brandon Roy gets the ball.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge may see some time at center when he’s on the court without Przybilla and that’s where he really can cause problems.  With his agility and shooting prowess he’s a mismatch waiting to happen.  Kind of like Kevin Garnett, or Chris Bosh. Hey!  The Bucks just saw both of them!  I’d think Ilyasova gets the call on him, but I thought that about Bosh too and Bogut saw a lot of minutes matched up with him.  Interesting to see how Skiles plays this one.  Ilyasova will have to be pesky and crashing the boards again Saturday to minimize the Blazers rebounding advantage.  Portland leads the league in rebounding differential at plus five.

Advantage: Portland

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Joel Przybilla

What can I say about Przybilla?  He’s developed into exactly what Milwaukee hoped for when they drafted him in 2000.  Too bad he’s done it elsewhere.  With Oden out Pryz has seen an increase in minutes and a slight increase in rebounds, but hasn’t been the shot-blocker he’s shown himself to be in year’s past.  He may have dialed it down a notch knowing the Blazers are thin in the front court after numerous injuries.  If he gets into the foul trouble the Blazers are, well, screwed to put it bluntly.  Long, strong and athletic centers have been giving Bogut problems lately, so this is a good chance for him to show he can get it done more consistently regardless of who he is facing.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Michael Redd and Roko Ukic

vs.

Andre Miller, Juwan Howard and Jerryd Bayless

The Bucks will be faced with an interesting conundrum when filling out their lineup on Saturday night.  Now that Redd is back and Roko Ukic has earned a few minutes, the question becomes, who will be inactive?  Logic suggests Dan Gadzuric. The Blazers, while young, are a deliberate team and don’t play a style suited for Gadz to have a successful night.  Skiles did say last Wednesday that Ukic would get some time and Redd is reportedly going to make his re-re-debut on Saturday.  The Blazers have been struck upside the head with an injury two-by-four this year and are down to their free agent signing Andre Miller, the journeyman Juwan Howard and disgruntled second-year guard Jerryd Bayless.  The Bucks will be as deep Saturday as they’ve been all year.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 94 – Blazers 86

You won’t see the Bucks hand the Blazers any tissue if they want to weep about their injury situation.  Not that they ever would with tough guy Roy and the hard lined Nate McMillan leading them.  But, the Blazers ARE sapped of healthy players and at the tail end of a four game road trip to the East.  The stars are aligned for the Bucks to pull this one off.  It’s practically an opportunity they can’t let slip by, especially given the two days rest they’ve had leading up to Saturday.

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