Vs.

Miami Heat (Erik Spoelstra) 38-34

Date: 3/26/2010

Time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin and NBA TV

Matchups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Carlos Arroyo

The shipping out of Rafer Alston initially seemed like a questionable move, given that he helped Orlando so tremendously last season after Jameer Nelson went down, but the more I look the more I like it.  Miami doesn’t have the talent around their point guards to make up for poor effort on defense or freelancing in the offense or just a general problem in the locker room.  At any given time, Alston can be those things.  Arroyo has some flair in his game, but isn’t all that good.  Why Chalmers still doesn’t start is beyond me, but he appears to be a little off-kilter himself.  Regardless, the point guard position in Miami ends up being Wade’s by game end anyway.  Jennings has struggled mightily in his last two; a rebound game would be nice.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Dwyane Wade

Salmons is coming off his first bad game as a Buck and will hopefully be a little refreshed after apparently running out of gas a little.  On Tuesday, Coach Skiles held Salmons out of practice when he appeared to be a little tired after playing a ton of minutes against the Kings, Nuggets and Hawks combined.  Salmons wasn’t himself on Wednesday, so hopefully he’ll be back to normal on Friday.  Wade’s a monster, but he gets even better if he’s not trying to do it all himself by forcing tough shots and trying to get to the line every possession, good shots be damned.  He had 10 assists on Thursday.  Gulp.

Advantage: Heat

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Quentin Richardson

DON’T LEAVE RICHARDSON OPEN. That should be the scouting report on Richardson.  That’s all it needs to say and that’s virtually everything to his game.  Oddly enough, there are times when that’s Delfino’s whole game too, but hopefully he’s going to the basket some more Friday to get himself going before he settles for the threes he was missing against the 76ers.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Michael Beasley

I’m still thinking about this slick move Beasley put on the Bucks the last time these teams met.  He had the ball in the post, faced up and put on a ridiculously quick move to get by whoever was guarding him, possibly LRMAM.  Beasley has all the talent you want in a guy, but his size isn’t great and his desire is in and out.  Still, if Wade trusts him and works with him, on any given night he can be a problem.  Ideally he’s a great matchup for LRMAM, but Beasley is probably even quicker than the super quick LRMAM and can hit from nearly anywhere on the floor.  He’s probably not a good matchup for anyone.  Here’s hoping to an uninterested Beasley on Friday.

Advantage: Heat

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Jermaine O’Neal

Will Bogut get back to crushing every center in his path against the Heat?  Hopefully.  He’s been struggling of late, but O’Neal is no where near the defender he used to be and presents Bogut another opportunity to get himself squared away.  Bogut’s a big guy and didn’t play as many games as he’d have liked last season, so fatigue could be sitting in for Bogues at this point.  It’s important that whatever the reason is that he’s struggling, he communicates it to the team and they get him squared away.  The Bucks only go as far as Bogut takes them.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Jerry Stackhouse, Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova and Kurt Thomas

Vs.

Udonis Haslem, Dorell Wright, Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers

Wright is crazy athletic and can get unconscious from three, so he concerns me.  Haslem is a good defender with that reliable Kurt Thomas jumper and Anthony’s a good shot-blocker, if nothing else.  The Heat has some good role players on their bench, but not more so than the Bucks.  This is a pretty even matchup, with the Bucks getting the edge for the consistency of Ridnour and Ilyasova.

Prediction: Bucks 98 – Heat 87

This should be a bounce back game for the Bucks.  They’ve owned the Heat all year.  Dwyane Wade gives everyone cause for concern and the Heat are as healthy as they’ve been when playing the Bucks, but overall, the Bucks have more talent and are a better defensive team.  Wade could take over and the Bucks might go to Charlie Bell to see if he can bring some more of the pressure that stifled Wade when these teams met earlier this year.  This is one the Bucks are going to really want, with the Heat being so close to them in the standings.  Milwaukee will be up for this one.

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Anyway, it’s a back to back with the Heat, so no preview Monday, instead I have something else planned.  So be sure to stop back.  I may even have something for you Dwyane Wade fans.

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 19-25

(Probable) Inactives: Francisco Elson, Michael Redd and Joe Alexander

Vs.

Miami Heat (Erik Spoelstra) 24-22

(Probable) Inactives: Yakhouba Diawara and Michael Beasley

Date: 1/30/2010 & 2/1/2010

Time: 7:30 (CST) & 6:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin x 2

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Rafer Alston

Miami looked far and wide for a veteran point guard to guide them through this season after general dissatisfaction with the play of second year guard Mario Chalmers through the early parts of the season.  Chalmers has seen his minutes dip with each passing month and Miami now seems more content to get 30 minutes of just as mediocre play out of the veteran Alston.  It doesn’t really matter who Miami trots out as the supposed point guard next to Dwyane Wade anyway, because Wade’s going to have the ball in his hands the majority of the time when the game begins to matter anyway.  I’ve always been a proponent of having a deadeye shooter at the point guard spot next to a player like Wade.  All they really need out of their point guards is shooting and defense, two things Alston doesn’t do very well.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Dwyane Wade

Its Wade’s world in Miami as the Heat guard leads the NBA in usage at 35.09 percent.  That means when he’s on the court, Wade uses roughly 35 percent of the Heat’s offensive possessions.  In comparison, Brandon Jennings leads the Bucks in usage at 27.34, or nearly eight percent less than Wade.  So if you thought Jennings had the ball a lot, wait till you see D-Wade.  Of course, the upside to having the ball in Wade’s hands is what he typically does with it, and that’s put it in the basket.  Wade’s averaging over 27 points a game and is taking seven shots at the rim nightly, terrific numbers for a shooting guard.  The knock I’d have on Wade is that he’s shooting three times a game from the three-point arc, that’s three wasted shots as he’s hitting at just a 30 percent clip from deep on the year.  The more threes Wade takes, the better the Bucks will feel.

Advantage: Heat

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Quentin Richardson

Despite being traded every 20 minutes this off-season, Richardson has settled in nicely as the designated shooter in Miami.  All but 97 of his 273 shots this year have come from outside the three-point line and he’s hit 39.2 percent of his threes.  So the Bucks are going to want to run out on Richardson and make him put the ball on the ground here and there.  I’m assuming he’s forgotten what to do once he’s forced to do that.  Richardson seems the perfect patsy for Delfino to continue his stellar month of January on though, so that’s exciting.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Joel Anthony

Anthony has spent a lot of time over the years playing center for the Heat and helps make for a rather lengthy Miami front line.  Fortunately, he isn’t and never has been and probably never will be very good offensively.  Mbah a Moute will likely have free reign to gamble if he so chooses.  The Bucks will likely find a way to have LRMAM spend some of his floor time guarding Wade anyway.  Anthony’s primary role is as a shot-blocker where he can actually be quite effective.  With him an O’Neal down low, the Bucks may have their share of struggles at the rim.

Advantage: Bucks (but really has there been a worse match-up all year than these two?)

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Jermaine O’Neal

Every time you find yourself cursing the world because the Bucks have paid far too much money for the services of Michael Redd, just remember that O’Neal is being paid $23 million this year to be an average player.  Once a feared shot-blocker with a finesse offensive game, O’Neal is a shell of his former self and hasn’t even blocked many shots this year.  He does shoot a high percentage from nearly everywhere on the court though and could give Bogut problems if he’s hitting midrange shots that pull the Aussie away from the hoop.  Bogut should be able to use his size to pound O’Neal inside and get off his baby hooks without much of an issue.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick and Jerry Stackhouse

Vs.

Udonis Haslem, Dorell Wright, James Jones, Jamal Magloire and Mario Chalmers

Miami has a little bit of everything on their bench, but none of it is that good.  Magloire is big and bad, but also quite literally bad as well.  Haslem has a very nice midrange game and has always seemed every bit the player David West is to me, just in a situation that doesn’t exploit his advantages enough.  Jones can shoot every now and then and Wright is an athlete who supposedly can play basketball, but there are holes in that story.  Milwaukee absolutely has the edge in this match-up and could pull away any time Dwyane Wade isn’t in the game.

Advantage: Milwaukee

Prediction: Bucks 98 – Heat 91

As bad as Miami is, it’s hard to expect them to go quietly with Dwyane Wade on their team.  Not one other Miami player strikes me as so much as above average, but Wade is so terrific that he makes up for nearly all their flaws when he’s playing with passion.  That would explain the schizophrenic nature of this Heat team, which can lose by 30 and win by 30 a night apart.  That’s not exactly the kind of team that’s fun to play on a back to back.  The Bucks have played with more consistency lately and it’s translated into better play if not better results.  Against a middling Heat team, Milwaukee has an opportunity for success staring them in the face.

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