(Probable) Inactives: Michael Redd, Joe Alexander and Francisco Elson

at

Dallas Mavericks (29-15)

(Probable) Inactives: Eduardo Najera and Matt Carroll

Game Time: 7:30 (CST)

Date: 1/26/2010

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Jason Kidd

Kidd was absent from the Mavs 50 point shellacking of the New York Knicks on Sunday, but should be ready to go when Milwaukee comes to town.  Kidd doesn’t have the necessary quickness to stick with Jennings anymore, so Jennings should be in full on attack mode Tuesday night.  I’ve said it many times before, Jennings needs to get to the rim for the Bucks to get easy shots and he should be able to get into the paint for those shots against Kidd.  The hitch in that plan could come if the Mavs go to Rodrigue Beaubois at all – he has more than enough speed to stay with Jennings.  Of course, the flip side with Kidd is that he can hit the open three if Jennings gets lost, which he’s prone to do on picks.

Advantage: Mavs

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Jason Terry

Hey, a match-up that may work for Bell!  Terry relies on quickness and his shooting prowess to create shots for himself.  He can make open shots and difficult ones, but doesn’t get to the rim with the great success that a bigger shooting guard may.  Given his lack of size, he’s a good match-up for the equally height deficient Bell.  Bell may see some time on Jason Kidd too, especially if Terry isn’t doing much and Kidd’s getting open three-point looks.  Terry’s been super inconsistent over his last five games (20, 4, 21, 8 and 18 point efforts) and that kind of sums up his entire year

Advantage: Mavs

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Shawn Marion

Marion looked to be on his way to giving the Bucks hell in the Mavs trip to the Bradley Center back in November, but he hurt himself early and didn’t return.  He’s the type of athlete that can get to the rim and give the Bucks problems.  If he gets Andrew Bogut into foul trouble that could mean all kinds of problems for the Bucks.  He’s also got the length to bother his man on defense and the quickness to stay with slashers.  In short, he could cause a whole different set of problems for the Bucks with his work on defense, even with Delfino having played terrific ball as of late.

Advantage: Mavs

Power Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Dirk Nowitzki

Advantage: Mavs

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Erick Dampier

No longer is Bogut “Ericka Dampier with a beard” as Shaquille O’neal famously once said.  Bogut is now, at least has been for the most of this season, a premier defender with an ever developing post game that can be relied on for a nightly double-double.  Coach Skiles recently said Bogut is consistently a 16-10.5 kind of guy and they’d like to see him get to the 19-11 level on a more regular basis.  Dampier is a load underneath and will prove to be no pushover as Bogut tries to post up and drop in his variety of hooks and runners.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, Jerry Stackhouse, Kurt Thomas and Ersan Ilyasova

Vs.

Josh Howard, Jose Barea, Drew Gooden and Rodrigue Beaubois

Beaubois’ last significant minutes before the New York blow out came when the Mavs visited Milwaukee.  As I said earlier, he has the speed to stay with Jennings and after a strong performance in New York he may be in line for a little more playing time against the Bucks in an attempt to capitalize on his good outing.  Gooden has been a poor-man’s Carlos Boozer often for the Mavs and can bring some real offense off the bench down low.  He can step out a little bit and give Bogut problems there.  Howard and Barea score in different ways but can both fill it up.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Mavs 101- Bucks 90

The Bucks stuck with the Mavs when they came to Milwaukee, but they did the same thing when the Lakers came to town and we remember what happened when Milwaukee visited L.A.  Obviously the road has been unkind to the Bucks and it’s hard to expect much to change against the Southwest Division leading Mavericks.  If the Bucks can keep it close and make it a toss-up in the end it’s possible luck owes them one, but that may be too much to ask.

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The Bucks got Dirk’d, that much is clear.  You simply cannot allow the Dallas Mavericks to have the last shot.  Dirk Nowitzki is too big and too good of a shooter to stop when the game is on the line.  If he misses, it’s a fluke.  His fade-away is indefensible.

So on one hand it’s a huge disappointment that the Bucks let this one slip away.  Score one for being upset.

But on the other hand, they had no business being in the game anyway.  Milwaukee was down 18 with eight minutes and 11 seconds to go in the third quarter.  Plenty of time was left, but there were few signs of life from a group that followed their worst defensive game of the year with an equally putrid start.

So in some ways it was a minor victory to even have been in the game at the end.  But that’s not the way successful teams look at these types of games.  Successful teams say, “we never should have been in the position to lose this game and then when it was close we should have closed it out.”  And that’s what the Bucks want to be, a successful team.

So this is no moral victory and little can be taken out of this from a team standpoint aside from the lessons learned in defeat.  Lessons that could prove valuable going forward.  Lessons like how quick is too quick to foul when the other team inbounds with 3.8 seconds left?  Or for Brandon Jennings, can someone get a better shot than me on the last possession (his answer: “Ersan’s (Ilyasova) man had doubled me, he was wide open, it’s something I’ll learn from”)?

Ah, the lessons learned in defeat.

Offense

• Jennings was once again a one man show in the fourth quarter.  13 of his 25 points, including two three-pointers.  Not so coincidentally, Jennings had more room to operate with Rodrigue Beaubois out of the game for the entire fourth period.  Beaubois’ quickness was a huge factor in Dallas’ success against Jennings early and Beaubois defense on the final play made Jennings look like a rookie for the very first time all year pretty much.  I asked Jennings about Beaubois

(On whether he’s seen anyone as quick as him this year) No not really.  I think he’s the future for that team.

• The strangest thing about Jennings game Monday?  He had 25 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds, IN HIS EIGHTH CAREER GAME, and that’s not turning heads at breakneck speed.  Amazing how far he has come and how quick he’s done it.  When he missed a three-pointer with .7 seconds left in regulation, more people were surprised he missed it than would have been surprised he made it.

• On a night when Andrew Bogut was rendered largely ineffective thanks to double teams by the Mavericks and some zone looks the Bucks haven’t gotten used to, Milwaukee got big production from Luke Ridnour and Ersan Ilyasova. 17 for Ridnour and 19/12 for Ersa Major.  Combined they were 7-for-11 on threes and ended up with a +/- of +32.  I’d say that’s a good effort.  On the Bucks big 19-7 run in the third quarter that brought them back within five after things looked their bleakest, Ridnour and Ersan combined to score 17 of the Bucks 19 points.

• After a run on turnovers in the past few games, the Bucks did a much better job of holding on to the ball Monday night.  The Bucks only coughed it up 10 times on the evening, leading to just 13 points.  Taking care of the ball had a lot to do with why they were able to get back into this one.

Defense

• One game is a bad night.  Two games is curious and three games is a trend.  With that in mind, it’s a good thing the offensively challenged New Jersey Nets are coming in to town next, because the Bucks defense has not been up to par the last two games.  After getting lit up for 125 points against Golden State Saturday, the Bucks allowed 115 points on over 50 percent shooting Monday night.

• The Bucks caught a big break too, when Shawn Marion hurt his ankle on the opening play and ended up missing the second half.  Marion’s absence forced the Mavs to go small and allowed the Bucks to use Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on Dirk.  Dirk scored only 10 in the second half on 12 shots.

• One game after allowing six opening quarter dunks/layups the Bucks allowed five.  They had only once allowed five in the first quarter all year before the last two games.  The Mavs rode those layups and dunks to 65 percent shooting in the first quarter and the Bucks were faced with an early deficit yet again.

• After two poor defensive efforts, it’s possible Scott Skiles will look to make some changes in the starting lineup before next game.  He indicated before the game that he hasn’t been happy with Hakim Warrick’s play.

He hasn’t played very well.  He’s struggled on the defensive end, he’s got to really make a lot of strides there.  Offensively some games he’s been a factor in large part because his minutes haven’t been there.  He’s in a different role.  He’s starting, we have high expectations, we don’t let a lot of things slip.   His normal role is to come off the bench, score a few points and sit back down.  We’re asking for more and we’re going to keep asking for it.  We think he’s capable.

I asked Hakim about his struggles after the game and whether being in the starting lineup has affected his aggressiveness.

I think I just got to play with a little more energy.  The same intensity as if I’m coming off the bench.  I think I’ve been playing a little too laid back.  It’s a little adjustment, you just got to be ready to play no matter what and I haven’t been.

I wouldn’t rule out the insertion of Ilyasova into the starting lineup next game.

You never want to lose games you can win, but we often forget to factor in just how important luck is.  In a two point game, a bounce of a ball here a bounce of a ball there and the Bucks pull this one out and are 6-2 heading into two easy games this week.  But the ball bounced as it did and they fall to 5-3.  All is not lost.  The Bucks can still finish this home stand at 5-1 and have now shown themselves they can at least compete at the same level as some of the Western Conferences finest.  That’s a step.  The Bucks now have a day off before taking on an offensively inept team they should be able to pounce on.  The Nets are a traveling confidence boost and the Bucks need to dismantle them to get the poor defensive efforts of the last two games out of their mouth.

In the mean time there is plenty of tape to watch, unfortunately we know it doesn’t end well.

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