The fourth quarter seems like a logical place to start.  After all, the Milwaukee Bucks were right there.  They didn’t have to spend the period playing catchup.  They didn’t dig themselves a hole, they weren’t in trouble.  Coming into the fourth quarter, the Bucks actually held a lead.  It wasn’t large, just a point, but Milwaukee needed one more quarter of solid basketball to salvage the last game of their three game trip out West.

12 minutes later, the Bucks would walk out of the Oracle Center with a three game losing streak.  The good work Milwaukee had done a week ago had been undone.  Once again, Milwaukee was 10 games under .500.

So how did it happen?

It wasn’t missed shots.  Typically the Bucks get looks and blow open jumpers, that’s just been the season.  Down the stretch against the Warriors though, Milwaukee didn’t even get that far.  The Bucks blew four consecutive possessions from the 3:28 mark of the fourth quarter to the 1:47 mark.  Over this stretch, the Bucks attempted two shots: a Keyon Dooling desperation three as the shot-clock expired and a Carlos Delfino three that was little more than an attempt to draw a foul.

In the past Scott Skiles has praised his team for generally executing well, but this was the worst execution the Bucks have had all season.  And the timing was abysmal.  The whole turnover spectacle started after back-to-back Corey Maggette baskets in isolation left the Bucks down just two.  Suddenly the Warriors lead had expanded to six after they capitalized on the Buck poor play.

Maggette battled back to keep the Bucks within two, but he would have had to have been perfect to bring the Bucks all the way back after their charitable offense handed the Warriors so many opportunities earlier.  He wasn’t perfect.  Maggette missed a free throw on an and-1 that would have left Milwaukee down one.  The Bucks could never close the gap all the way and the Warriors walked away with a win.

Offense

Milwaukee’s reliance on isolations and individual drives to the hoop over the last four minutes had little hope.  The Warriors could have effectively done that, but they have two premier scorers in Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. Curry can stop and shoot as well as anyone in the league and Ellis can beat everyone in the NBA off the dribble.  They are dynamic scorers, very difficult to defend.  For the Bucks, Delfino was attempting to create off the dribble and that left him either attempting crazy shots or losing the ball.  He’s not a great fourth quarter, crunch time creator.  His best offense is shooting threes, not putting an offense on his back.  And while Maggette’s a very good isolation player, if Milwaukee’s going to rely on him creating while four guys watch, they’ll continue to lose a lot more games than they win.

• Good Ersan Ilyasova returned for the Bucks.  The power forward made 10 of 20 shots and showed much better shot selection after a very shaky game in Phoenix.  Ilyasova’s jumper was falling, especially early.  He finished the first quarter with 15 points.  He could have had an even better scoring night, but was unable to convert on a couple of offensive rebound attempts at the rim.  But when Ilyasova is hitting his long jumper, he always changes Milwaukee’s offense.

• After 24 minutes in Phoenix, Brandon Jennings was limited to just 21 minutes against the Warriors.  No word yet on why his minute restriction was tightened up after three games in which his leash was progressively loosened.  He and John Salmons, Milwaukee’s two injured players, were limited to just 41 combined minutes and made two of 11 shots for four points.  As the game wound down and Milwaukee didn’t know where to turn, Jennings sure could have been useful.

Defense

For the third consecutive game, Milwaukee watched their opponent shoot at least 50%.  With an offense as bad as Milwaukee’s the Bucks have very little chance at success allowing such a high conversion rate to their opponents.  The Bucks are now 0-11 this season when their opponent shoots at least 50%.

• Without Andrew Bogut (bruised right knee), Luc Mbah a Moute stepped up on the glass.  The Bucks forward established a new career best with 19 rebounds, 11 of them on the offensive end.  Against an undersized team like the Warriors, Mbah a Moute can thrive inside.  They don’t have the same type of shot-blocking or muscle at the rim.  Mbah a Moute is as tough as anyone and he showed that to the Warriors.

• Golden State is the league’s best three-point shooting team and that was on display against Milwaukee.  The Warriors connected on 12 of 24 threes and their bench players, Reggie Williams and Vlad Radmonovic primarily, made five of eight.

Final Thoughts

Injuries are never supposed to be an excuse, but it was clear the Bucks weren’t at full strength down the stretch.  Were they sporting a unit with Bogut and Jennings, their execution may have been much sharper and their options more varied.  Instead they had players forced to play out of position, away from their strengths.  It shouldn’t come as a surprise that that blew up in the Bucks face.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Enemy: Warriors World

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Stephen Curry

Jennings should be on track to log at least 30 minutes this evening, after seeing his playing time grow from 12 to 21 minutes in his first three games back from injury.  His playing time has been something he’s groused about lately, saying if he had a limit, he may as well not play at all.  30 minutes should be more than enough time for him to get in the rhythm he’s been looking for since returning.  He’s always seemed to have had an extra hop in his step against Sophomore classmate Curry, so perhaps this will be the game that gets Jennings heading in the right direction again.  Milwaukee’s guard is just seven of 26 from the field in three games.

Advantage: Warriors

Shooting Guard
Carlos Delfino vs. Monta Ellis

Before a game between two teams as unpredictable as the Bucks and Warriors, Ellis stands out as a constant.  But not necessarily for the reason you may think.  While he’s likely to score and shoot quite a bit, that’s no guarantee.  What is a virtual guarantee, is that he’ll play 40 minutes.  In 15 January games, Ellis logged at least 40 minutes 10 times.  He’s an annual leader in minutes played across the NBA and typically rewards the team with healthy scoring outputs.  He’s averaging 25.1 points per game.  Ellis doesn’t help the Warriors in a lot of other ways, and there are always debates whether the team is better with or without him on the floor, but Milwaukee knows well the value of a player who can score.  The Bucks could use a few guys like that.

Advantage: Warriors

Small Forward
Corey Maggette vs. Dorell Wright

Answer this without looking: which Warriors player has made the most threes for the team this season?  Since I’m at the portion of the preview where I breakdown the small forward matchup, you probably know the answer.  It’s Wright.  He’s turned his career around in a flash since arriving in Golden State.  Always talented, but better known as Dwyane Wade’s best friend on the Heat than as a reliable basketball player, Wright has more than doubled his previous career high points per game average with 16.1 this season.  And not only does he lead the Warriors in threes, but he leads the NBA with 117.  Maggette will have to keep his wits about him and know where Wright is at all times.  Wright has good length defensively, but is a bit wiry for the powerful Maggette.  This is an opportunity for Maggette to shine on offense yet again.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward
Ersan Ilyasova vs. David Lee

When Golden State traveled to Milwaukee earlier this season, they did so without Lee, who was fighting off a scary arm infection at the time.  He’s back and Milwaukee will have to figure out a way to neutralize his contributions.  Lee’s shooting percentage and shot attempts have dipped a bit after lats season’s all-star campaign, but he’s still by far Golden State’s leading offensive threat in the front court.  Defensively he’ll be giving up size to Ilyasova, but has the speed to stay with Milwaukee’s perimeter based power forward on the outside.  Ilyasova would be well served to hit the offensive glass hard and look for spot-up opportunities when his teammates are driving.

Advantage: Warriors

Center
Andrew Bogut vs. Andris Biedrins

Bogut may be back.  Bogut may not be back.  He’s questionable as I type this.  Yesterday Coach Skiles deemed him “probable” before the Phoenix game, but Bogut was ruled out after giving it a go before the game.  It’s only been a day, but the early indications were that the bone bruise in Bogut’s knee wouldn’t force him out for more than a game.  Caution typically prevails in these situations though, so we’ll see.  Biedrins is a rebounder, average defensively and possibly the worst free throw shooter of all time.  He’s a blast.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench
Luc Mbah a Moute, Keyon Dooling (?), Earl Boykins, John Salmons, Larry Sanders (?), Jon Brockman and Chris Douglas-Roberts

vs.

Louis Admundson, Reggie Williams, Ekpe Udoh, Acie Law and Dan Gadzuric

Milwaukee will play whoever can play at this point.  Dooling and Sanders were sick yesterday and should be questionable tonight.  Boykins’ minutes rely on Dooling.  If Dooling plays, Boykins doesn’t, at least not very much.  Brockman’s been stealing enough minutes from Sanders lately that people in Wisconsin are filing police reports left and right.  Health-wise, Sanders may be more off than we’re aware of.  For the Warriors, Udoh is an athlete and Williams can score in a variety of ways, but they don’t have much more than the Bucks.

Advantage: Warriors (they know who’s playing at least!)

Prediction: Bucks 106 – Warriors 100

This prediction relies on Bogut playing and Salmons not being a shell of himself.  Milwaukee has the horses to stay with the Warriors on offense and stop them on defense when they are healthy.  At some point, Jennings and Delfino will find themselves on the same night and this night seems as logical a choice as any.  But if Bogut’s out and the Bucks can’t find any offense early, the Warriors could jump on them quick.  Milwaukee doesn’t want to have to battle back all game long once again.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan on Facebook (in the sidebar).

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Ah, so this is what Milwaukee’s second game of the season was supposed to look like.  You remember that game, right?  The Bucks held the Timberwolves for 37.6% shooting, managed only 35.6% accuracy themselves and saw Minnesota ride 26 second chance points to victory.

Well the narratives were similar in Milwaukee’s 79-72 victory over Golden State Saturday night.  Only this time, it was Milwaukee who grabbed their own often errant shots repeatedly and did the Warriors in with extra effort.  Of Milwaukee’s season high 58 rebounds on the evening, 19 of them came on the offensive end.  The Bucks used their aggressiveness on the offensive glass wisely, scoring 21 second chance points.

Standing at the top of the Bucks hill of second chances at game’s end, was Drew Gooden.  Milwaukee’s already much maligned power forward scored six second chance points himself and grabbed a team high six offensive rebound.  In addition, he flashed passing skills that we saw on occasion in the pre-season, but have rarely been put to use since the real games began.  He had two fine assists to Andrew Bogut, perhaps a sign of things to come. Since he’s struggled so much to start the season, it’s easy to forget why Milwaukee signed him this off-season, but over the past few games, Gooden has shown at the very, very least, he can be a tenacious rebounding presence for Milwaukee.  At his best, he’ll compliment Bogut well and keep the offense humming.  Without question, this was Gooden’s finest game as a Buck.

Today was more of a case of him helping just to keep Milwaukee’s offense afloat though.  Make no mistake, the Bucks’ offense had very little to do with them preserving in a game they should have run away with.  The Warriors scored just 30 points in the first half, thanks to a stingy Bucks defense that refused to let anyone other than Monta Ellis get going.  Ellis finished the first quarter with 11 of the Warriors 16 points and that would be a theme throughout.  Subtracting Ellis’ 24 points on 9-16 FG, the Warriors scored just 48 points on 19-66 shooting (28.8%).  Before the game, Coach Scott Skiles spoke about limiting the Warriors guards Ellis and Stephen Curry to a combined 40 points or less as a key.

“They (Ellis and Curry) are at 48 a game roughly and if we can get them down around 40, that goes a long way towards us hopefully winning the game,” he said.  “No slight against their other guys, but those two guys are very explosive.”

Ellis: 24
Curry: 7

Mission accomplished and the Bucks are now .500.
Offense

Milwaukee looked a lot more like the team that struggled out of the gate (at least offensively) than the team that just blew out back to back teams and hung 100 points on them both.  Coach Skiles saw some different problems tonight.  A big one, was his bench.

“The problem was, we turned it over as well and that was a theme throughout the night,” Skiles said after the game.  “We weren’t sharp with the ball.  We had some good moments very early in the game.  Our bench was so good for us in Atlanta and tonight they were 1-18.  When we went to the bench the first time, we kind of got out of sync right there.  And we never got that back the rest of the game.”

No one on the bench was spared from a rough night.  Ersan Ilyasova (0-6 FG), Keyon Dooling (0-5 FG) and Earl Boykins (0-1 FG) all failed to make a shot and Corey Maggette (1-6 FG) made just one while failing to attempt a free throw.  This comes on the heels of a thrashing in Atlanta, largely courtesy of the Bucks second unit (57 bench points in Atlanta, just four Saturday).  But that’s the thing about second units, each of them is there for a reason.  Some are very talented, but inconsistent.  Some aren’t all that talented.  Some are just better fits for the bench.  Whatever the reason may be, there is always a reason why a second unit guy is a second unit guy.

Milwaukee finished the game with 20 total turnovers, another season high.

“We had some silly ones (turnovers),” Skiles said.  “We stepped out of bounds, kind of some silly turnovers that we haven’t been making.”

Defense

In today’s preview, I hoped Bogut would have an impact night protecting the Bucks rim.  Oh my, did he ever.  Bogut blocked seven shots while grabbing 12 of his 17 rebounds on the defensive end.  He played a big role in the Warriors struggles at the rim and inside of 10-feet.  A Golden State team that entered Saturday’s game averaging nearly 17 makes at the rim each night (16.9-25.9), shot just 10-24 at the rim and 2-6 inside 10-feet against the Bucks.  Bogut’s season high block total had a lot to do with that.  It also helped that the Warriors often forget they even have warm bodies on the court at the four and the five.  Not that a starting combo of Andris Biedrins and Dan Gadzuric scares anyone.  They finished the game a combined 1-7.  Yikes.

• Four Bucks reached double figures in rebounding, led by Bogut (17).  Gooden had 10, Luc Mbah a Moute grabbed 12 and Brandon Jennings had 11.  In each of their five wins this season, Milwaukee has won the rebounding battle.  I’m just sayin’.

• John Salmons got the duty on Ellis for the majority of the game (and also played well offensively, 26 points 9-17 FG 4-6 3FG, just wanted to mention his good night), but Mbah a Moute had one memorable sequence against him.  Ellis had the ball on the wing, jabbed and began to drive middle on the Bucks long armed forward.  Mbah a Moute knocked the ball loose and Ellis quickly gathered it back up as he stepped back.  As he often is, Ellis appeared determined to get past his defender though and again tried his move on Mbah a Moute.  Naturally, The Prince swiped the ball free again and this time gathered it up to start a fast break.  This is why everyone loves talking about his defense so much.

Final Thoughts

For the game, Milwaukee’s defensive rating was 78.3.  That’s 78.3 points per 100 possessions.  That’s what legendary defensive teams are made of.  What’s amazing is that last game Coach Skiles was saying he thought it would have taken longer for his team’s defense to come around.  So perhaps this is the Bucks still in an adjustment period defensively.  Of course, it’s possible that everyone figured out where they’d need to be sooner than he expected and this is as good as they’ll get, but even so, it’s pretty good.  If Milwaukee can win games on night’s they are shooting 33.7%, that’s pretty impressive.  Obviously that won’t fly against better teams, but it says a lot about where Milwaukee is defensively right now and a little about how far Milwaukee still has to go offensively.  That should come down the road … or maybe not, I can’t say.  But I can say that Milwuakee will bring it on defense every night, and that will keep them in a lot of games they probably shouldn’t be in.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan of Bucksketball on Facebook (to the right).

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vs

Golden State Warriors (Keith Smart) 6-3
Inactive: David Lee, Louis Amundson, Ekpe Udoh

Date: 11/13/2010
Game Time: 7:30 PM (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin / NBA TV

The Other Guys: WarriorsWorld.net

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Stephen Curry

Jennings is still working towards establishing consistency in his game, but he’s taken baby steps towards that with back-to-back solid games in blowout Milwaukee wins.  He’s been more aggressive in looking for his shots at times in each of the past two wins, but hasn’t been overbearing about shooting.  There’s an important distinction between the two.  It’s good for a point guard to be aggressive, but it’s bad for a point guard to be too shot happy.  At times last season, often because of a lack of talent around him, Jennings got shot happy.  That hasn’t been the case lately.  Of course, it helps when he’s making his shots too.  In the past three games, he’s connected on 8-14 threes.  Curry has gotten even better this season after a strong rookie year last year.  He’s shooting close to 50% and has boosted his percentage of field goals assisted on while he’s on the floor from 24.6% to 34.1%.  He gets the edge over Jennings for his seven fairly consistent games, but if Jennings keeps up the stellar play of late, this could easily be a push.

Advantage: Warriors

Shooting Guard

John Salmons vs. Monta Ellis

Last season, Ellis took a ton of shots, hit an okay percentage of them and was the kind of volume scorer that some people love and some people hate.  There wasn’t much else to Ellis.  Now?  He’s taking fewer shots than he did last season (even though he still leads the NBA) and has hit them at a much better percentage (44.9% last season, 51.1% this one).  Ellis struggles with his outside shot, but is one of the finest at the league when it comes to getting inside the paint or hitting mid-range jumpers.  His quickness could pose a significant problem for Salmons all night and could lead to more Jennings/Keyon Dooling back courts.

Advantage: Warriors

Small Forward

Luc Mbah a Moute vs. Dorell Wright

Carlos Delfino is still out with what is either a neck strain or a concussion, it seems up for debate at the moment.  Sigh.  That’s okay though, because LRMAM (by the way, I’m not sure, but I think the Richard has been dropped) has been working well in the Bucks starting small forward slot.  Mbah a Moute’s defense has been stellar as always and could prove especially helpful against a perimeter shooting team like the Warriors.  The Warriors are seventh in the league in 3-point attempts, but only thirteenth in accuracy.  Even though they have Dell Curry’s son, Wright has been by far their finest shooter this season.  He’s taken a team leading 57 threes and hit 28 (49.1%).  Mbah a Moute will have to run Wright off the 3-point line tonight.

Advantage: Bucks

Power Forward

Drew Gooden vs. Brandan Wright

Without David Lee, Wright has stepped into the Warriors starting power forward role.  Wright doesn’t have the offensive package of skills that Lee does, but is athletic and a good shot-blocker.  He’s still thin as a rail though and could get handled by Gooden.  That’s saying a lot.  Milwaukee went to Gooden early in their win over New York and got some pretty impressive returns.  With a smaller power forward like Wright on him, he could get the ball early again.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Andris Biedrins

I hope more than anything Biedrins gets to shoot free throws tonight.  He’s 0-5 on the season and owns the league’s ugliest looking free throw form.  Always a good rebounder, he should have his hands full with Bogut.  Milwaukee hasn’t needed to go inside much the last two games since their perimeter players have finally begun to find their stride, but at some point, they’ll need to get the ball back in to Bogut.  If Milwaukee’s shooters struggle at all, Bogut should be able to operate inside effectively against Biedrins.  Milwaukee will need Bogut to be at his rim protecting best against the penetrating Ellis and slippery Curry defensively too.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Corey Maggette, Earl Boykins, Keyon Dooling, Ersan Ilyasova and Jon Brockman

vs.

Vlad Radmanovic, Reggie Williams, Rodney Carney and Dan Gadzuric

Ilyasova leads the Bucks in +/- this season at +52.  It’s a dangerously small sample size with regards to overreacting, but that’s impressive considering he’s dealt with jumpshot problems for a large part of the year.  His +16 in the Hawks game surely helped.  Boykins looks like he’s, at the very least, splitting the backup point guard minutes with Keyon Dooling and has been very effective offensively, without getting handled defensively.  I think we’re all excited to see the return of Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell, though I’d only expect Bell to play late in the game or if Golden State tries to get some revenge minutes out of him.  Maggette always plays with a chip on his shoulder, so I wouldn’t expect anything different out of him against his last team.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 104 – Warriors 90

Milwaukee’s so thoroughly dominated their last two games that the bar is high against the Warriors.  Don’t let their record fool you, the Warriors are still not a very good team.  They’ve taken advantage of a soft early season schedule to get to 6-3.    The keys for Milwaukee in this one will be keeping the Warriors from getting hot outside the 3-point line and prevent a Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry explosion.  If they can do that and perform adequately offensively, this should be a win going away.  I would be surprised to see another 50% plus shooting performance from Milwaukee, but if they can keep their shooting percentage in the forties, that should be all the offense they need.

Jeremy Schmidt writes the Milwaukee Bucks blog Bucksketball.com.  Follow him on Twitter.  Then become a fan of Bucksketball on Facebook (to the right).

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Probable Inactives: Joe Alexander

at

Golden State Warriors (Don Nelson) 11-26

Probable Inactives: Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph and Raja Bell

Date: 1/15/2010

Time: 9:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Stephen Curry

Let me throw some numbers at you

These are the monthly progressions of Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings.  Player A, B and C represent Curry in the months of November, December and January in the league, while D, E and F are Jennings numbers over the same period of time.  Since the start of November, Curry has been blowing Jennings out of the water as a shooter and has been equal to or better with regard to accumulating steals all season.  Jennings numbers would suggest he’s the superior playmaker at this point and that seems likely, as Curry played shooting guard for the majority of his time in college.  Across the board elsewhere though, Curry seems to have the edge after a considerable head start by Jennings.

Advantage: Warriors

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Monta Ellis

Ellis may have a future as a marathon runner when his days in the league are up.  Ellis has played 48 minutes in seven games this year, easily the largest number in the league.  If he has the gas in his tank to go that long, it’s easy to see why coach Nelson hates taking him out.  Ellis is taking over seven shots a night at the rim and finishing at a clip higher than 60 percent.  On top of that, Ellis is getting three shots inside ten feet and hitting on 47.8 percent of those shots.  So half of his Ellis’ shots come within ten feet and he’s hitting on over 50 percent of them?  Is he the perfect shooting guard?  Not quite, as he’s shooting only 29 percent from deep, but that’s a small flaw in an otherwise seemingly unstoppable offensive player.

Advantage: Warriors

Small Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Corey Maggette

Maggette has taken 69 free throws over his last five games, reaching double figures in attempts and makes in each one.  His overall shot attempts per game are down about one shot this year, but Maggette is averaging more points than he did last season.  He’s hitting on nearly 53 percent of his shots and has scaled back his ill fated three-point attempts.  In short, Maggette is nearly as perfect an individual offensive player as there is, even if he probably doesn’t pass all that often.  I long for the day the Bucks again have someone who can get to the basket with the consistency of a Maggette.  Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will have his hands full Friday, likely splitting his time attempting to stop Maggette and Ellis and trying to make some sort of positive impact after a few rough nights in a row.

Advantage: Warriors

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Cartier Martin

Ilyasova comes off his most productive game in a few weeks against the Blazers, 24 points and four three’s.  The opportunity will once again be there for the occasionally smooth shooting stretch four, especially with the Warriors likely to trot out a small forward that may or may not be Cartier Martin at the four.  Vlad Radmonovich is doubtful for Friday’s game.  Rebounds will be available for Ilyasova, I’d expect him to end this game with a double-double and probably another strong showing.  The Warriors are good for that kind of thing.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Andris Biedrins

Biedrins is taylor-made for this Golden State offense.  He can run the court, grab rebounds, block the occasional shot and dunk the ball.  He’s had some problems with injuries this year, just like most Warriors.  Across the baord Biedrins numbers are down this year and injuries have really limited his minutes even when he has played.  At least I’d assume it’s injuries, as it’s always possible Don Nelson just decided one day he doesn’t want to play his best big man anymore.  Bogut is 10-29 on the current road trip.  The road trip where Michael Redd has been gone and the Bucks have needed Bogut to take his game to another level, preferably a level up and not a level down.  Double teams have been running at Bogut, but his assist numbers don’t exactly reflect that he’s been finding the open man in those situations, with one in each of his last three games.  Bogut has struggled as much as anyone in each of the last three games and I’m sure he’s awaiting a return home more eagerly than most.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Hakim Warrick, Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas, Jodie Meeks and Carlos Delfino

vs.

Anthony Morrow, Devean George, C.J. Watson and Chris Hunter

Golden State is not entirely unlike Portland in that they ride their starters hard since the injury bug has bit them often this year.  Of their bench players, I’d expect Morrow to see the most minutes and have the most impact; he’s one of the league’s very best three-point shooters.  The Bucks bench has been carrying the load on this Western conference trip so far, bringing them back after the starters dig a hole and generally attempting to keep things interesting.  Meeks has the most to gain right now, another few stellar performances could vault him into the starting lineup or at least guarantee him steady minutes for the first time all year.  He’s still yet to perform in anything other than a blowout, but at least was getting buckets early against Portland.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Warriors 118 – Bucks 100

I was hoping the Bucks would at least keep it close against Portland after a hard fought comeback against the Suns, but they couldn’t do that.  Is there anything for the Bucks to feel good about coming into this game?  Possibly Jodie Meeks, but that’s about it.  The Warriors are the 28th ranked defensive team in the league, but the Bucks have mastered the art of self-defense; they do a great job defending themselves.  I don’t expect another sub-40 percent shooting night for Milwaukee, but I do expect the Warriors to pile the points on a Bucks team that has been getting hit hard early recently.

If the Bucks can find a way to stop Monta Ellis and prevent the Warriors many proficient shooters from knocking down open looks, they’ll have a chance.  The Warriors defense may be the medicine an ailing Bucks offense needs, but the Warriors haven’t had many home games this year and traditionally have one of the best crowds in the league.  Given the way the Bucks have played on the road this year, that spells trouble.

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(Likely) Inactives: Brandon Wright, Devean Geroge and Speedy Claxton

at

Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 4-2

(Likely) Inactives: Michael Redd, Joe Alexander, Francisco Elson

Game time: 7:30 (11/14/09)

TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin

Tickets: Bucks.com

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Monta Ellis

(snicker) The Warriors passed on Brandon Jennings (snicker).  I know, it’s impossible to predict the future, but did they really expect a Monta Ellis-Stephen Curry backcourt to hold up defensively?  Ellis balked at the idea from the get and now Curry is on the bench.  Warriors basketball.  Ellis isn’t a real classic point guard, he’s similar to Louis Williams from Philly, but Ellis is better.  He’s not a great shooter from deep, but Ellis seems to be creeping in on regaining the great touch on mid range jumpers he had two years ago.  Two years ago Ellis shot 44% on 16-23 feet, last year that fell to 25%.  He’s back up to 33% this year and will likely improve as he gets further from the ankle injury he suffered last year.  Ellis’ assists are up to a career high 5.6 per game, but his turnovers are piling up at over three a game.  The Bucks have been forcing turnovers with success this year and may look to capitalize on Ellis’ looseness with the ball.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Anthony Morrow

It’s time I give Chuck Bell some credit.  Bell’s hitting three’s at a near 44% clip this year.  Sure, he’s only taken 16, but that just means he knows what’s a good shot and what’s not.  Bell is a +46 this year, by far the best number on the team and Bell’s defense has been better than it has in a few years, thanks to what looks like better health.  One thing really holding Bell back from having a better year has been his penchant for turning the ball over.  He leads the regulars in turnover percentage (an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays) with over 23%.  This number is nearly double anything he’s done with the Bucks, so I’d expect him to come back to Earth on that, he’s too smart a player.  Morrow is the best shooter in the NBA and another rookie free agent find for Golden State.  Bell’s going to have to stick to him whenever he’s in, but fortunately for the Bucks Morrow is on  Golden State.  They probably won’t pass him the ball anyway, he’s only attempted 25 three’s through seven games (hitting 60%!).

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Kalenna Azubuike

Azubuike was an undrafted free agent four years ago and fourth in the league in three point percentage last year.  This year he’s been one of the Warriors few bright spots, shooting nearly 53% from the field.  In addition, Azubuike is blocking over a shot a game and grabbing five rebounds.  He’s a very strong, if short, small forward and can finish around the rim.  A potential problem looming for him?  He doesn’t pass the ball.  He’s averaging less than one assist per game and has assisted on about four percent of plays while he’s been on the court.  In comparison, Delfino’s assist rate is about ten percent.  I guess that’s life on the Warriors.  Delfino will likely be glad to be matched up with Azubuike though, after a grueling match-up last game with Carmelo Anthony that saw him in foul trouble all evening.

Advantage: Warriors

Power Forward

Hakim Warrick vs. Stephen Jackson

Jackson requests to be traded every day.  Nelson responds by screwing with his playing time if he notices anything about Jackson’s game he doesn’t like.  Jackson played 18 minutes against the Pacers and Nelson attributed hit to a sore hip.  Jackson’s response?  “Why would my hip hurt?”  We don’t know Jack.  Jackson could give Hak Warrick some problems the way Danilo Gallinari did at the start of the Knicks game.  Jack is hitting about 35% of his three’s on the year and is a handful on the perimeter.  If he gets hot early, expect a Ersan Ilyasova sighting.  Either way the Bucks have a big advantage on the boards here, but lack on the perimeter.

Advantage: Warriors (if Jack shows up)

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Mikki Moore

Andris Biedrins is out and Ronny Turiaf is likely out.  Biedrins did not make the road trip, while Turiaf may be back by Saturday if his knee feels better.  Without those two, the Warriors are in for a long night against Bogut.  Every game has been better than the last this year for Bogut.  He’s shown few ill effects from the back injury that cut short his season last year and has taken on a leadership role with gusto.  What’s been most impressive in the effeciency with which he is scoring: his last four games have consisted of three in which he went 8-14 and one when his final line was 10-15.  Skiles has said he wants to see around 15 shots a game for Bogut, so he’s got to be thrilled.  And as a bonus, Bogut is nine for his last nine from the free throw line!  As for Moore, the fact that he’s on team number ten probably says all you need to know about him.

Bench

Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Luke Ridnour, Dan Gadzuric and Jodie Meeks

vs.

Anthony Randolph, CJ Watson, Corey Maggette, Stephen Curryand Acie Law

To be honest, no one ever knows who Don Nelson will and won’t start.  He’s said he wanted to leave Kelenna Azubuike in the lineup for a while, so I’d guess he’ll start, after that it’s a toss-up.  The constant line-up changes are just one of many things he’s done to wear on this team.  Through this whole mess of a season, one positive development has been the play of Anthony Randolph.  In his last four games (before Friday) he’s averaged two steals and a block and a half to go along with double figure points and nine rebounds.  He’s looked solid in the center position, despite being 200 pounds.  I don’t expect him to have success if he’s matched up with an Andrew Bogut down low though.  Curry hasn’t had a stellar start to the year, but he doesn’t look like the gunner he was in summer league and at Davidson.  That’s a good development for the sake of his career.  A bad development?  He’s on the Warriors and has already been bounced out of the starting line-up.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 106 – Warriors 90

Remember the Knicks game last Saturday?  I’m sure the Bucks do and I’m sure they’re looking to replicate that effort.  The Warriors are an absolute mess.  They have players begging to be traded, players fighting with coaches, agents blasting the organization and it’s all affecting their play on the court.  They are already dealing with the possibility that their season is spiraling out of control faster than they can handle.  The Warriors have a good collection of talent, but nothing roping these guys together.  The chemistry is terrible and it starts from the top down.  Another team from the West on a long trip and another bad team.  This has trap game written all over it with the Mavericks coming in Monday, but the Bucks shouldn’t be a team looking past anyone. Thus far I have no reason to believe they will.

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