Probable Inactives: Joe Alexander

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Golden State Warriors (Don Nelson) 11-26

Probable Inactives: Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph and Raja Bell

Date: 1/15/2010

Time: 9:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Stephen Curry

Let me throw some numbers at you

These are the monthly progressions of Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings.  Player A, B and C represent Curry in the months of November, December and January in the league, while D, E and F are Jennings numbers over the same period of time.  Since the start of November, Curry has been blowing Jennings out of the water as a shooter and has been equal to or better with regard to accumulating steals all season.  Jennings numbers would suggest he’s the superior playmaker at this point and that seems likely, as Curry played shooting guard for the majority of his time in college.  Across the board elsewhere though, Curry seems to have the edge after a considerable head start by Jennings.

Advantage: Warriors

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Monta Ellis

Ellis may have a future as a marathon runner when his days in the league are up.  Ellis has played 48 minutes in seven games this year, easily the largest number in the league.  If he has the gas in his tank to go that long, it’s easy to see why coach Nelson hates taking him out.  Ellis is taking over seven shots a night at the rim and finishing at a clip higher than 60 percent.  On top of that, Ellis is getting three shots inside ten feet and hitting on 47.8 percent of those shots.  So half of his Ellis’ shots come within ten feet and he’s hitting on over 50 percent of them?  Is he the perfect shooting guard?  Not quite, as he’s shooting only 29 percent from deep, but that’s a small flaw in an otherwise seemingly unstoppable offensive player.

Advantage: Warriors

Small Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Corey Maggette

Maggette has taken 69 free throws over his last five games, reaching double figures in attempts and makes in each one.  His overall shot attempts per game are down about one shot this year, but Maggette is averaging more points than he did last season.  He’s hitting on nearly 53 percent of his shots and has scaled back his ill fated three-point attempts.  In short, Maggette is nearly as perfect an individual offensive player as there is, even if he probably doesn’t pass all that often.  I long for the day the Bucks again have someone who can get to the basket with the consistency of a Maggette.  Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will have his hands full Friday, likely splitting his time attempting to stop Maggette and Ellis and trying to make some sort of positive impact after a few rough nights in a row.

Advantage: Warriors

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Cartier Martin

Ilyasova comes off his most productive game in a few weeks against the Blazers, 24 points and four three’s.  The opportunity will once again be there for the occasionally smooth shooting stretch four, especially with the Warriors likely to trot out a small forward that may or may not be Cartier Martin at the four.  Vlad Radmonovich is doubtful for Friday’s game.  Rebounds will be available for Ilyasova, I’d expect him to end this game with a double-double and probably another strong showing.  The Warriors are good for that kind of thing.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Andris Biedrins

Biedrins is taylor-made for this Golden State offense.  He can run the court, grab rebounds, block the occasional shot and dunk the ball.  He’s had some problems with injuries this year, just like most Warriors.  Across the baord Biedrins numbers are down this year and injuries have really limited his minutes even when he has played.  At least I’d assume it’s injuries, as it’s always possible Don Nelson just decided one day he doesn’t want to play his best big man anymore.  Bogut is 10-29 on the current road trip.  The road trip where Michael Redd has been gone and the Bucks have needed Bogut to take his game to another level, preferably a level up and not a level down.  Double teams have been running at Bogut, but his assist numbers don’t exactly reflect that he’s been finding the open man in those situations, with one in each of his last three games.  Bogut has struggled as much as anyone in each of the last three games and I’m sure he’s awaiting a return home more eagerly than most.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Hakim Warrick, Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas, Jodie Meeks and Carlos Delfino

vs.

Anthony Morrow, Devean George, C.J. Watson and Chris Hunter

Golden State is not entirely unlike Portland in that they ride their starters hard since the injury bug has bit them often this year.  Of their bench players, I’d expect Morrow to see the most minutes and have the most impact; he’s one of the league’s very best three-point shooters.  The Bucks bench has been carrying the load on this Western conference trip so far, bringing them back after the starters dig a hole and generally attempting to keep things interesting.  Meeks has the most to gain right now, another few stellar performances could vault him into the starting lineup or at least guarantee him steady minutes for the first time all year.  He’s still yet to perform in anything other than a blowout, but at least was getting buckets early against Portland.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Warriors 118 – Bucks 100

I was hoping the Bucks would at least keep it close against Portland after a hard fought comeback against the Suns, but they couldn’t do that.  Is there anything for the Bucks to feel good about coming into this game?  Possibly Jodie Meeks, but that’s about it.  The Warriors are the 28th ranked defensive team in the league, but the Bucks have mastered the art of self-defense; they do a great job defending themselves.  I don’t expect another sub-40 percent shooting night for Milwaukee, but I do expect the Warriors to pile the points on a Bucks team that has been getting hit hard early recently.

If the Bucks can find a way to stop Monta Ellis and prevent the Warriors many proficient shooters from knocking down open looks, they’ll have a chance.  The Warriors defense may be the medicine an ailing Bucks offense needs, but the Warriors haven’t had many home games this year and traditionally have one of the best crowds in the league.  Given the way the Bucks have played on the road this year, that spells trouble.

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(Likely) Inactives: Brandon Wright, Devean Geroge and Speedy Claxton

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Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 4-2

(Likely) Inactives: Michael Redd, Joe Alexander, Francisco Elson

Game time: 7:30 (11/14/09)

TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin

Tickets: Bucks.com

Match-ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Monta Ellis

(snicker) The Warriors passed on Brandon Jennings (snicker).  I know, it’s impossible to predict the future, but did they really expect a Monta Ellis-Stephen Curry backcourt to hold up defensively?  Ellis balked at the idea from the get and now Curry is on the bench.  Warriors basketball.  Ellis isn’t a real classic point guard, he’s similar to Louis Williams from Philly, but Ellis is better.  He’s not a great shooter from deep, but Ellis seems to be creeping in on regaining the great touch on mid range jumpers he had two years ago.  Two years ago Ellis shot 44% on 16-23 feet, last year that fell to 25%.  He’s back up to 33% this year and will likely improve as he gets further from the ankle injury he suffered last year.  Ellis’ assists are up to a career high 5.6 per game, but his turnovers are piling up at over three a game.  The Bucks have been forcing turnovers with success this year and may look to capitalize on Ellis’ looseness with the ball.

Advantage: Bucks

Shooting Guard

Charlie Bell vs. Anthony Morrow

It’s time I give Chuck Bell some credit.  Bell’s hitting three’s at a near 44% clip this year.  Sure, he’s only taken 16, but that just means he knows what’s a good shot and what’s not.  Bell is a +46 this year, by far the best number on the team and Bell’s defense has been better than it has in a few years, thanks to what looks like better health.  One thing really holding Bell back from having a better year has been his penchant for turning the ball over.  He leads the regulars in turnover percentage (an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays) with over 23%.  This number is nearly double anything he’s done with the Bucks, so I’d expect him to come back to Earth on that, he’s too smart a player.  Morrow is the best shooter in the NBA and another rookie free agent find for Golden State.  Bell’s going to have to stick to him whenever he’s in, but fortunately for the Bucks Morrow is on  Golden State.  They probably won’t pass him the ball anyway, he’s only attempted 25 three’s through seven games (hitting 60%!).

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward

Carlos Delfino vs. Kalenna Azubuike

Azubuike was an undrafted free agent four years ago and fourth in the league in three point percentage last year.  This year he’s been one of the Warriors few bright spots, shooting nearly 53% from the field.  In addition, Azubuike is blocking over a shot a game and grabbing five rebounds.  He’s a very strong, if short, small forward and can finish around the rim.  A potential problem looming for him?  He doesn’t pass the ball.  He’s averaging less than one assist per game and has assisted on about four percent of plays while he’s been on the court.  In comparison, Delfino’s assist rate is about ten percent.  I guess that’s life on the Warriors.  Delfino will likely be glad to be matched up with Azubuike though, after a grueling match-up last game with Carmelo Anthony that saw him in foul trouble all evening.

Advantage: Warriors

Power Forward

Hakim Warrick vs. Stephen Jackson

Jackson requests to be traded every day.  Nelson responds by screwing with his playing time if he notices anything about Jackson’s game he doesn’t like.  Jackson played 18 minutes against the Pacers and Nelson attributed hit to a sore hip.  Jackson’s response?  “Why would my hip hurt?”  We don’t know Jack.  Jackson could give Hak Warrick some problems the way Danilo Gallinari did at the start of the Knicks game.  Jack is hitting about 35% of his three’s on the year and is a handful on the perimeter.  If he gets hot early, expect a Ersan Ilyasova sighting.  Either way the Bucks have a big advantage on the boards here, but lack on the perimeter.

Advantage: Warriors (if Jack shows up)

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Mikki Moore

Andris Biedrins is out and Ronny Turiaf is likely out.  Biedrins did not make the road trip, while Turiaf may be back by Saturday if his knee feels better.  Without those two, the Warriors are in for a long night against Bogut.  Every game has been better than the last this year for Bogut.  He’s shown few ill effects from the back injury that cut short his season last year and has taken on a leadership role with gusto.  What’s been most impressive in the effeciency with which he is scoring: his last four games have consisted of three in which he went 8-14 and one when his final line was 10-15.  Skiles has said he wants to see around 15 shots a game for Bogut, so he’s got to be thrilled.  And as a bonus, Bogut is nine for his last nine from the free throw line!  As for Moore, the fact that he’s on team number ten probably says all you need to know about him.

Bench

Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Luke Ridnour, Dan Gadzuric and Jodie Meeks

vs.

Anthony Randolph, CJ Watson, Corey Maggette, Stephen Curryand Acie Law

To be honest, no one ever knows who Don Nelson will and won’t start.  He’s said he wanted to leave Kelenna Azubuike in the lineup for a while, so I’d guess he’ll start, after that it’s a toss-up.  The constant line-up changes are just one of many things he’s done to wear on this team.  Through this whole mess of a season, one positive development has been the play of Anthony Randolph.  In his last four games (before Friday) he’s averaged two steals and a block and a half to go along with double figure points and nine rebounds.  He’s looked solid in the center position, despite being 200 pounds.  I don’t expect him to have success if he’s matched up with an Andrew Bogut down low though.  Curry hasn’t had a stellar start to the year, but he doesn’t look like the gunner he was in summer league and at Davidson.  That’s a good development for the sake of his career.  A bad development?  He’s on the Warriors and has already been bounced out of the starting line-up.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 106 – Warriors 90

Remember the Knicks game last Saturday?  I’m sure the Bucks do and I’m sure they’re looking to replicate that effort.  The Warriors are an absolute mess.  They have players begging to be traded, players fighting with coaches, agents blasting the organization and it’s all affecting their play on the court.  They are already dealing with the possibility that their season is spiraling out of control faster than they can handle.  The Warriors have a good collection of talent, but nothing roping these guys together.  The chemistry is terrible and it starts from the top down.  Another team from the West on a long trip and another bad team.  This has trap game written all over it with the Mavericks coming in Monday, but the Bucks shouldn’t be a team looking past anyone. Thus far I have no reason to believe they will.

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