Milwaukee Bucks (Scott Skiles) 42-34
vs.
Chicago Bulls (Vinny Del Negro) 37-39

Date: April 6, 2010
Time: 7:00 (CST)
TV: FS Wisconsin

Matchups

Point Guard
Brandon Jennings vs. Derrick Rose

Two of the best young point guards in the East go head-to-head once again, this time, with even more at stake.  The Bucks win and they clinch a playoff spot without having to back in.  The Bulls need all the wins they can get if they really want to make the playoffs.  Jennings and Rose will have the ball in their hands all night, leading the charges.  Jennings got the best of Rose the last time these teams met, most famously in the highlight above.  We could see some changes in the Bucks offense that results in a little more Jennings, especially with Kurt Thomas starting.  Thomas does his best work a few steps outside the paint, so in theory that should result in more operating room for Jennings on drives.  We’ll see how it all shakes out though.  Containing Rose is going to be a HUGE key for the Bucks.

Advantage: Bulls

Shooting Guard
John Salmons vs. Kirk Hinrich

If any team should know how to slow down John Salmons, it should be the Bulls.  Having spent the first half of his season with Chicago, they know where he is and isn’t comfortable as well as anyone I’d assume.  Hinrich is the kind of defender that can give bigger guards like Salmons problems because he’s so relentless with his pressure and physical in his style.  This John Salmons is a different one than the one who played in Chicago earlier this year though.  He’s doing more creating, driving and finishing.  Salmons went from a middling player with a 12.7 PER in Chicago, to a key factor in the playoff race with a 17.3 PER in Milwaukee.

Advantage: Bucks

Small Forward
Carlos Delfino vs. Luol Deng

Deng’s been back the last two games from yet another injury and is getting more minutes than the Bulls expected.  Don’t expect that to change against Milwaukee.  He’s averaging nearly 20 points and 14 rebounds against the Bucks this season.  He had only seven rebounds the last time these teams met and the Bucks would be well served to look back at that game and see how they had success boxing him out.  Keeping opponents off the offensive glass has been a strength for the Bucks this season, but could be an issue with Bogut out.  Deng could capitalize big time Tuesday.

Advantage: Bulls

Power Forward
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Taj Gibson

Gibson’s quietly effective rookie season continues to be quiet and effective through April.  In fact, he’s played his best basketball of the season in his last two games, averaging 14 points and 15.5 rebounds.  As I said with Deng, keeping Gibson off the glass will be huge.  At the same time, LRMAM will have to get on the glass even more than he typically does, as there will be more rebounds available without Bogut down low – on the offensive and defensive ends.

Advantage: Bulls

Center
Kurt Thomas vs. Joakim Noah

Fortunately for Milwaukee, they aren’t going up against a premier scoring center in their first contest without the big man.  Noah is a good defender and rebounder, but most of his scoring comes off put backs and free throws.  Chicago isn’t going to be tossing it inside to him very often.  Thomas will have to refrain from hacking Noah and make sure he’s making life difficult for the Bulls center by keeping him honest on defense.  If Thomas is hitting his mid range jumper, it’ll pull Noah from the lane and open things up for the rest of the Bucks.

Advantage: Bulls

Bench
Jerry Stackhouse, Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Dan Gadzuric, Primoz Brezec and Charlie Bell

Vs.

Brad Miller, Hakim Warrick and Flip Murray

Miller is a little bit taller version of Thomas essentially.  He often gives the Bucks problems, but may be less of an issue with the more mobile Bucks front line.  It’s tough to tell how the Bucks rotation will shake out, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens with Brezec and Gadzuric on Tuesday.  This will be a very interesting game for the Bucks.

Advantage: Bucks

Prediction: Bucks 98 – Bulls 94

Milwaukee has been the kind of team that rallies together when adversity strikes.  This is a perfect opportunity, as they can lock up a playoff spot and move past the Andrew Bogut injury in one fell swoop.  A lot needs to be figured out between now and the start of the playoffs, but making the playoffs is the very first step.  This should be a very focused Bucks group that steps on the court Tuesday night.

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(Probable) Inactives: Joe Alexander and Dan Gadzuric

vs.

Chicago Bulls (Vinny Del-Negro) 14-19

(Probable) Inactives: Lindsey Hunter

Date: 1/8/2010

Time: 7:30 (CST)

TV: FS Wisconsin

Match-Ups

Point Guard

Brandon Jennings vs. Derrick Rose

The last time these teams met, Jennings/Rose was hyped as a potential matchup of the league’s future at point guard.  Since then, Tyreke Evans has more or less made fans toss Jennings and Rose on the backburner.  Evans has shined as the Kings have outperformed expectations as Jennings and Rose have each struggled for teams that haven’t played well over the past month.  Rose has it going lately though, averaging nearly 25 points per game over the Bulls last five games, three of them wins.  He’s shot just a shade under 50 percent and is averaging six free throws per game.  He’s been attacking and the Bulls have had success.  The biggest change has been the free throw attempts; Rose was getting shots early this year, but wasn’t getting many easy baskets from the free throw line.  In November Rose shot just 32 free throws, compared with 72 in December.  The Bulls winning percentage in those respective months are reflective of it too: .385 and .467.  If the Bucks can keep Rose off the line, they’ll increase their odds of winning significantly.

Advantage: Bulls

Shooting Guard

Michael Redd vs. Kirk Hinrich

This is not the Kirk Hinrich I remember.  The last time I saw Hinrich play at the Bradley Center, he taught Ramon Sessions a lesson in caring for the ball by swiping it from him when he was looking towards coach Skiles nonchalantly and sprinted down the court for a layup.  He got to the free throw line over and over and torched Milwaukee from all over the court.  He finished the night with 31 points off the bench and began the slow process that was the elimination of the Bucks from the playoff race.  Now?  He’s shooting under 40 percent as the starting two guard.  About the only thing that seems the same is the constant trade banter centering on him.  Sounds a little like the Bucks own starting two guard Michael Redd.  Whether Hinrich will be defending Redd or Jennings Friday, expect him to give them problems with physicality and quickness on the perimeter defensively.  At least I’d think so, unless that’s somehow non-existent for the current rendition of Kirk Hinrich too.

Advantage: Bulls

Small Forward

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute vs. Luol Deng

Against Milwaukee this year, Deng is averaging 23 points, 17 rebounds, a block and a half and a steal.  About the only saving grace is that LRMAM didn’t play in one of the games, so hopefully he’ll adjust Deng’s numbers in a negative way, though he didn’t do much in the Bucks first game against Chicago.  Like with Rose, the Bucks would be well served to keep Deng from getting to the line, as he’s averaging nearly ten free throw attempts per game against Milwaukee this year.  Deng’s athleticism is a constant source of frustration for the Bucks, as LRMAM frequently spends time guarding Derrick Rose, leaving less athletic players matched up with the opportunistic Deng.

Advantage: Bulls

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova vs. Taj Gibson

Gibson typically cedes the majority of the power forward minutes to Deng, as the Bulls like to go small with Salmons at the three more often than not, but when he’s in Gibson is serviceable.  He’s averaging eight points and six rebounds on nearly 50 percent shooting and has the second highest offensive rebound percentage on the team.  He’s fit in nicely as the hustling power forward, doing as much as he can with few touches and fewer plays ran through him.  He’s not quite the shot-blocker Tyrus Thomas is, but also requires much less maintenance and doesn’t force up crazy jumpers.  The offense is considerably better with Deng at the power forward though and Gibson’s defensive prowess isn’t good enough to warrant him playing quite as much as he currently is.  The Bulls would be much better off starting Deng at the four and making a go of it.  Ilyasova hasn’t really had a noteworthy game since Sacramento left town on the 19^th of December and recently has lost some playing time to Hakim Warrick.  I don’t think he’s in any danger of losing his starting spot, but it wouldn’t hurt him to take advantage of a likely size match-up against Chicago.  An example of Ilyasova’s inconsistencies has been his recent three-point shooting: after connecting on 7-10 against San Antonio, Charlotte and Orlando, Ilyasova has missed his last seven.

Advantage: Bucks

Center

Andrew Bogut vs. Joakim Noah

Noah was garnering some all-star support earlier this year when he was grabbing every rebound out there and finishing inside to boot.  Well he’s still grabbing rebounds, but shot just 42 percent in the month of December.  For most players, 42 percent isn’t great, but for a center, it’s just plain awful.  Noah is hitting just 52 percent of his shots at the rim, down from 59 percent last year and generally terrible for a talented player like himself.  In the last meeting between Bogut and Noah, Bogut dropped 22 points and 15 rebounds in his first game back from a leg injury.  Noah was unable to have much of an effect on Bogut’s shots at the rim, as Andrew just muscled down the lighter Noah and dropped in hook shots time after time.  Look for Milwaukee to try and exploit the size and strength mismatch again.

Advantage: Bucks

Bench

Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, Luke Ridnour and Charlie Bell

Vs.

Brad Miller, John Salmons, Tyrus Thomas and James Johnson

The Bulls boast a deep bench with a myriad of match-up problems waiting to happen and flexibility.  Thomas is working his way back into the rotation and trying to figure out this whole coming off the bench thing again after starting for the majority of last season.  Salmons has performed better off the bench since moving back on the 29^th of December.  That makes sense; it seems like a more comfortable role for a professional scorer like Salmons.  He can come in and focus pretty much on just getting his shot and getting it against the other team’s second unit guys.  Warrick has scored in double figures in four of the last five games and has averaged over five free throws a game during that span.  His aggressiveness is his ticket to more playing time.

Advantage: Chicago

Prediction: Bucks 99 – Bulls 93

These are obviously very important games as both these teams are going to be in the mix for the eighth seed in the East.  The Bucks blew a huge lead in Chicago in the first meeting and were rescued from blowing one by some Andrew Bogut blocked shots in meeting two.  It’s clear the Bucks can out-execute the Bulls, but the question is whether they can consistently do it for a whole game.  At this point, they haven’t shown they can.  Fortunately, the Bucks play much better at home and should be rested and focused on getting one more win before a tough six game trip out West.  In short, the Bucks need this one more than the Bulls and if they play like it, they’ll take it.

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